2017 Blazers Playoff Odds - Let's Try this Again

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FiveThirtyEight has already updated their predictions. They have us at 92% odds of making the playoffs.

They also predict our final record will be 41-41.

BNM
 
This game could really crush Denver's spirit and send them into 'tank mode'. I expect them to really fall off now.
 
Boob-No-More said:
How sweet would it be to catch MEM and improve the draft pick we're getting from them that DEN threw in to get us to take Nurkic off their hands.

BNM
Click to expand...
It would be cool, but our own draft pick is going down the tubes.
Right now, we get #15, #20, and #26.
The #15 will likely get worse. The others have a small chance at improving.
 
Wizard Mentor said:
It would be cool, but our own draft pick is going down the tubes.
Right now, we get #15, #20, and #26.
The #15 will likely get worse. The others have a small chance at improving.
Click to expand...
Those picks are trade sweeteners now.
 
Here are the Blazers projected playoff odds from the top 3 sites as of 3/29/2017:

ESPN's NBA BPI Playoff Odds:
Projected Record = 40-42
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 85.3%
Change = +14.0%

Projected Finish = 8th

FiveThirtyEight.com 2016-17 NBA Predictions:
Projected Record = 41-41
Change = +1 win

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 92.0%
Change = +9.0%

Projected Finish = 8th

Basketball-Reference.com Playoff Probability Report:
Projected Record = 39.8-42.2
Change = +0.4 wins

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 73.9%
Change = +16.9%

Projected Finish = 8th

Consensus:
Projected Record = 40-42
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 83.7%
Change = +13.3%

Obviously, last night's win was huge and gives us a big leg up on securing the 8th seed. The consensus odds of the Blazers making the playoffs is now at 83.7%, by far the highest since I've been tracking it. What a difference two games can make.

Which will hopefully be a reminder to the team that their work is not done. Just two games ago, it was DEN that was in the driver's seat and the consensus favorite to make the playoffs. We can't have a let down after last night's emotional win. We need to keep taking care of business. Two losses to teams we should beat will undo the progress the team has made since last Saturday and would open the door for DEN to get right back in this race.

So, back to work against HOU tomorrow night. After playing the Rockets twice in November, we haven't seen them since. They beat us handily both times (by 15 and 16 points). Tomorrow should be a good test to see how much we've improved.

BNM
 
Wizard Mentor said:
1) Now "only" need to go 6-3 to make it to .500
2) +/- improved to -1.0 - there's a chance!
3) Still 11th in Ortg.
4) Improved to 23rd in Drtg, 8th worst. Sounds bad, but we were 3rd worst, so huge improvement. Only 0.5 pts worse than "championship contender" Cleveland.
Click to expand...
Blazers improve to 36-38:
1) Need to go 5-3 to get to .500
2) +/- improved to -0.9. Blazers have scored 8003 points, given up 8069. To get to even need to outscore our opponents by 66 points in 8 games = 8.25.
3) Still 11th in Ortg (0.3 behind Tpups for 10th)
4) Steady at 23rd in Drtg
 
Here are the Blazers projected playoff odds from the top 3 sites as of 3/31/2017:

ESPN's NBA BPI Playoff Odds:
Projected Record = 41-41
Change = +1 win

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 92.4%
Change = +7.1%

Projected Finish = 8th

FiveThirtyEight.com 2016-17 NBA Predictions:
Projected Record = 41-41
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 96.0%
Change = +4.0%

Projected Finish = 8th

Basketball-Reference.com Playoff Probability Report:
Projected Record = 40.5-41.5
Change = +0.7 wins

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 84.1%
Change = +10.2%

Projected Finish = 8th

Consensus:
Projected Record = 41-41
Change = +1 win

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 90.8%
Change = +7.1%

With last night's win over HOU, the Blazers eclipsed two milestones in their chase for the 8th playoff seed. For the first time, the consensus odds of making the playoffs are greater than 90%, and for the first time, the consensus is that they won't finish the season below .500. Which is an impressive turnaround.

The Blazers are currently one game below .500 at 37-38. On March 1, the team was a season low 11 games below .500 at 24-35. Since that time, they have gone 13-3 to climb within one game of .500 for the first time since December 13th. A win over PHO on Saturday would put them at .500 for the first time since they were 12-12 after beating MEM on December 8th.

More importantly, last night's win put the Blazers 1.5 games ahead of DEN, effectively 2.5 games ahead by virtue of owning the tie breaker, with 7 games to go. In just over a month, the Blazers have gone from losing the games they should win to winning the games they should lose (according to the odds makers). During the month of March, they had six victories over playoff teams with better records: OKC, @OKC, @SAS, @ATL, @Mia, HOU.

They still have several tough games left (@UTA, UTA, SAS, NOP), but let's hope they don't let up, that they lock up the 8th seed and go into the playoffs on a roll.

BNM
 
Boob-No-More said:
Here are the Blazers projected playoff odds from the top 3 sites as of 3/31/2017:

ESPN's NBA BPI Playoff Odds:
Projected Record = 41-41
Change = +1 win

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 92.4%
Change = +7.1%

Projected Finish = 8th

FiveThirtyEight.com 2016-17 NBA Predictions:
Projected Record = 41-41
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 96.0%
Change = +4.0%

Projected Finish = 8th

Basketball-Reference.com Playoff Probability Report:
Projected Record = 40.5-41.5
Change = +0.7 wins

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 84.1%
Change = +10.2%

Projected Finish = 8th

Consensus:
Projected Record = 41-41
Change = +1 win

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 90.8%
Change = +7.1%

With last night's win over HOU, the Blazers eclipsed two milestones in their chase for the 8th playoff seed. For the first time, the consensus odds of making the playoffs are greater than 90%, and for the first time, the consensus is that they won't finish the season below .500. Which is an impressive turnaround.

The Blazers are currently one game below .500 at 37-38. On March 1, the team was a season low 11 games below .500 at 24-35. Since that time, they have gone 13-3 to climb within one game of .500 for the first time since December 13th. A win over PHO on Saturday would put them at .500 for the first time since they were 12-12 after beating MEM on December 8th.

More importantly, last night's win put the Blazers 1.5 games ahead of DEN, effectively 2.5 games ahead by virtue of owning the tie breaker, with 7 games to go. In just over a month, the Blazers have gone from losing the games they should win to winning the games they should lose (according to the odds makers). During the month of March, they had six victories over playoff teams with better records: OKC, @OKC, @SAS, @ATL, @MIA, HOU.

They still have several tough games left (@UTA, UTA, SAS, NOP), but let's hope they don't let up, that they lock up the 8th seed and go into the playoffs on a roll.

BNM
Click to expand...
Thanks for doing these posts each game. I'm sure they have taken quite a bit of time, but they are appreciated. Especially the added little fun facts. Cool stuff to know....
 
Last edited:
Dougnsalem said:
Thanks for doing these posts each game. I'm sure they have taken quite a bit of time, but the are appreciated. Especially the added little fun facts. Cool stuff to know....
Click to expand...
Ditto. Love it. REALLY liked this:

The Blazers are currently one game below .500 at 37-38. On March 1, the team was a season low 11 games below .500 at 24-35. Since that time, they have gone 13-3 to climb within one game of .500 for the first time since December 13th.

11 games below .500 to start the month and it's STILL March. That is bad ass.
 
Here are the Blazers projected playoff odds from the top 3 sites as of 4/1/2017:

ESPN's NBA BPI Playoff Odds:
Projected Record = 41-41
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 95.6%
Change = +3.2%

Projected Finish = 8th

FiveThirtyEight.com 2016-17 NBA Predictions:
Projected Record = 41-41
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 98.0%
Change = +2.0%

Projected Finish = 8th

Basketball-Reference.com Playoff Probability Report:
Projected Record = 40.5-41.5
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 89.5%
Change = +5.4%

Projected Finish = 8th

Consensus:
Projected Record = 41-41
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 94.4%
Change = +3.6%

Just going through the motions on this this morning. Yes, DEN lost last night, but the bigger, and much sadder news was about Nurkic's injury. We will most likely make the playoffs, which I have always been in favor of. For selfish reasons, I just like having more Blazers games to watch. For the team, I wanted our young guys to gain post season experience, but now the most important young piece will be missing. Jusuf Nurkic has yet to experience one minute of NBA playoff basketball. I was excited to see him play, and excited for him to gain that experience.

The pro tanking faction can now say, see we should have just been losing on purpose all along, we'd be in the lottery and have a higher draft pick. Oh well, fuck that loser mentality. I thoroughly enjoyed the 20 games we got from Nurk and the way his presence energized the team and turned the season around. And, yes, our pick has most likely dropped out of the lottery. We will likely be picking 15, instead of somewhere around 10 or 11. On the other hand, both of our other first round picks have improved since the Nukic trade. The MEM pick has gone from 23rd to 20th, and could move up another pick or two and the CLE pick has gone from 28th to 26th. Not a lot to get excited about, but it has slightly improved the trade value of those two picks.

I will still watch the playoffs, of course, but something, a very big something, as in a 7' tall 280 lb something, will be missing. Get well big guy.

BNM
 
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If i'm looking a this right we can lose the rest of our games and still make it in as long as Denver just loses 4 of their last 7.
 
Rhal said:
If i'm looking a this right we can lose the rest of our games and still make it in as long as Denver just loses 4 of their last 7.
Click to expand...

Yes, that's correct. Our magic number is 4 - any combination of Blazers' wins and Nuggets' losses that adds up to 4 clinches the 8th seed for us.

BNM
 
Boob-No-More said:
Yes, that's correct. Our magic number is 4 - any combination of Blazers' wins and Nuggets' losses that adds up to 4 clinches the 8th seed for us.

BNM
Click to expand...
There is one more option as well, if the pelicans win out and we lose out they get the 8th seed.
 
Here are the Blazers projected playoff odds from the top 3 sites as of 4/2/2017:

ESPN's NBA BPI Playoff Odds:
Projected Record = 41-41
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 97.3%
Change = +1.7%

Projected Finish = 8th

FiveThirtyEight.com 2016-17 NBA Predictions:
Projected Record = 41-41
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 99.0%
Change = +1.0%

Projected Finish = 8th

Basketball-Reference.com Playoff Probability Report:
Projected Record = 40.7-41.3
Change = +0.2 wins

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 93.3%
Change = +3.8%

Projected Finish = 8th

Consensus:
Projected Record = 41-41
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 96.5%
Change = +2.1%

The Blazers won their season best 6th in a row last night, matching the team's longest winning streak of the 2015-16 season. Time to bump this thread...

With six games remaining, or magic number over DEN is four. Any combination of POR wins and DEN losses that adds up to four guarantees we finish ahead of them in the final standings.

Our magic number over NOP is two. NOP currently holds the tie breaker over POR. They lead the season series 2-1. Any combination of POR wins and NOP losses that adds up to two guarantees we finish ahead of them in the final standings. We play NOP in Portland on the final game of the regular season. Let's hope we have clinched the 8th seed by then.

Portland Trail Blazers
  • Magic number: 4 over DEN, 2 over NOP
  • Strength of schedule: .512 (not easy)
  • Remaining games: Six: @MIN, @UTA, MIN, UTA, SAS, NOP
  • Tiebreaker(s): Owns the tiebreaker over DEN. Currently does not own the tiebreaker over NOP
  • Current Streak: Won 6
  • Last 10 Games: 9-1
Denver Nuggets
  • Tragic number: 4
  • Strength of schedule: .554 (brutal)
  • Remaining games: Seven: @Mia, @NOP, @HOU, NOP, OKC, @DAL, @OKC
  • Tiebreaker: POR owns the tiebreaker
  • Current Streak: Lost 3
  • Last 10 Games: 5-5
New Orleans Pelicans
  • Tragic number: 2
  • Strength of schedule: .529 (tough)
  • Remaining games: Six: CHI, DEN, @DEN, @GSW, @LAL, @POR
  • Tiebreaker: Currently holds the tiebreaker over POR
  • Current Streak: Won 2
  • Last 10 Games: 7-3
BNM
 
Last edited:
BlazerBeav said:
Man, with Nurkic I'd have felt like catching Memphis was possible, but winning at Utah without him is going to be tough.
Click to expand...


With Nurk, I really thought MY dream scenario would come to fruition. Denver stays half a game behind us. and Memphis slips down to 9th. UGGGH!
 
Wizard Mentor said:
Blazers improve to 36-38:
1) Need to go 5-3 to get to .500
2) +/- improved to -0.9. Blazers have scored 8003 points, given up 8069. To get to even need to outscore our opponents by 66 points in 8 games = 8.25.
3) Still 11th in Ortg (0.3 behind Tpups for 10th)
4) Steady at 23rd in Drtg
Click to expand...

Blazers record: 38-38
1) Blazers have made it to .500, sweeeeeet! Just need to go 3-3 in the last 6 to stay there.
2) +/- improved to -0.6. Blazers have scored 8250 points, given up 8293. To get to even, need to outscore opponents by 43 points in 6 games = 7.16 ppg.
3) Still 11th in Ortg (0.3 behind Tpups for 10th, still)
4) Steady at 23rd in Drtg

Streaks:
Won 9-1 in last 10
6 game win streak
 
Last edited:
Wizard Mentor said:
Blazers record: 38-38
1) Blazers have made it to .500, sweeeeeet! Just need to go 3-3 in the last 8 to stay there.
2) +/- improved to -0.6. Blazers have scored 8250 points, given up 8293. To get to even, need to outscore opponents by 43 points in 6 games = 7.16 ppg.
3) Still 11th in Ortg (0.3 behind Tpups for 10th, still)
4) Steady at 23rd in Drtg

Streaks:
Won 9-1 in last 10
6 game win streak
Click to expand...
math must not be your song suit....:cheers:
 
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