2017 Blazers Playoff Odds - Let's Try this Again

[Wizard Mentor]

math must not be your song suit....

Ha! Math is definitely my Strong Suit, but not my Song Suit.

Obviously, my editing could use help, though

 

[tester551]

Ha! Math is definitely my Strong Suit, but not my Song Suit.

Obviously, my editing could use help, though

That's fine by me. I obviously can't spell to save my life.

 

[Denny Crane]

With a healthy Nurk, 44-38 was possible.

 

[illmatic99]

TL/DR version:

Magic number (blazer wins + nugget losses) is now 4 to make the playoffs

 

[BBert]

A foul was called on Jones Jr., and Lillard’s attempt magically went in.

That wasn't "magic". That was skill and practice. Credit where it is due.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Here are the Blazers projected playoff odds from the top 3 sites as of 4/3/2017:

ESPN's NBA BPI Playoff Odds:
Projected Record = 41-41
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 95.4%
Change = -1.9%

Projected Finish = 8th

FiveThirtyEight.com 2016-17 NBA Predictions:
Projected Record = 41-41
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 97.0%
Change = -2.0%

Projected Finish = 8th

Basketball-Reference.com Playoff Probability Report:
Projected Record = 40.8-41.2
Change = +0.1 wins

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 87.8%
Change = -5.5%

Projected Finish = 8th

Consensus:
Projected Record = 41-41
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 93.4%
Change = -3.1%

DEN continues to befuddle the odds makers and defy the simulations. Last night, they continued their recent trend of winning games they shouldn't. Thankfully for the Blazers, they have also been losing games they should win. So, the Blazers magic number over DEN remains at 4.

NOP lost last night to the Bulls. So, that takes the Blazers magic number over the Pelicans down to 1. The Blazers could eliminate NOP from playoff contention with a win tonight in MIN.

DEN and NOP play each other twice this week. The good news, is someone has to lose those games. The bad news is that if NOP has been eliminated from making the playoffs they will likely rest Anthony Davis, and perhaps Demarcus Cousins. What should have been two competitive games could end up being two gimmes for DEN

Portland Trail Blazers

• Magic number(s): 4 over DEN, 1 over NOP
  
• Strength of schedule: .510 (not easy)
  
• Remaining games: Six: @MIN, @UTA, MIN, UTA, SAS, NOP
• Tiebreaker(s): Owns the tiebreaker over DEN. Currently does not own the tiebreaker over NOP
• Current Streak: Won 6
• Last 10 Games: 9-1

Denver Nuggets

• Tragic number: 4
• Strength of schedule: .549 (brutal)
• Remaining games: Six: @NOP, @HOU, NOP, OKC, @DAL, @OKC
• Tiebreaker: POR owns the tiebreaker
• Current Streak: Won 1
• Last 10 Games: 5-5

New Orleans Pelicans

• Tragic number: 1
• Strength of schedule: .577 (very brutal)
• Remaining games: Five: DEN, @DEN, @GSW, @LAL, @POR
• Tiebreaker: Currently holds the tiebreaker over POR
• Current Streak: Lost 1
• Last 10 Games: 6-4

BNM

 

[Denny Crane]

• Remaining games: Six: @MIN, @UTA, MIN, UTA, SAS, NOP

I think we can win at least 3 of those.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

• Remaining games: Six: @MIN, @UTA, MIN, UTA, SAS, NOP

I think we can win at least 3 of those.

I think we can win 4, or more if Utah and SA both sit starters before the playoffs.

 

[Boob-No-More]

I think we can win 4, or more if Utah and SA both sit starters before the playoffs.

SAS will likely have the second seed sewn up and will rest starters, but with their system that doesn't always mean it will be an easy win.

I doubt UTA rests anyone. These games are hugely important to them. They are 1/2 game ahead of LAC for the HCA in their first round series. A lot of the UTA core players have little to no post season experience, and for whatever reason LAC seems to just flat out own the Jazz. I think they will try to do everything they can to secure HCA for that series - and that means playing to win n both of our games against them.

BNM

 

[Chris Craig]

With Nurk, I really thought MY dream scenario would come to fruition. Denver stays half a game behind us. and Memphis slips down to 9th. UGGGH!

Why do you want Denver to make the playoffs?

 

[Boob-No-More]

With Nurk, I really thought MY dream scenario would come to fruition. Denver stays half a game behind us. and Memphis slips down to 9th. UGGGH!

Can't happen. The best DEN can do, if they win out and MEM loses out, is end up tied with MEM at 42-40 and MEM holds the tie breaker.

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

Here are the Blazers projected playoff odds from the top 3 sites as of 4/4/2017:

ESPN's NBA BPI Playoff Odds:
Projected Record = 40-42
Change = -1 win

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 92.6%
Change = -2.8%

Projected Finish = 8th

FiveThirtyEight.com 2016-17 NBA Predictions:
Projected Record = 41-41
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 95.0%
Change = -2.0%

Projected Finish = 8th

Basketball-Reference.com Playoff Probability Report:
Projected Record = 40.4-41.6
Change = -0.4 wins

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 84.0%
Change = -3.8%

Projected Finish = 8th

Consensus:
Projected Record = 40-42
Change = -1 win

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 90.5%
Change = -2.9%

After last night's 1 point loss to MIN, the Blazers magic numbers remain stuck at 4 over DEN and 1 over NOP.

Portland Trail Blazers

• Magic number(s): 4 over DEN, 1 over NOP
  
• Strength of schedule: .515 (moderate)
  
• Remaining games: Five: @UTA, MIN, UTA, SAS, NOP
• Tiebreaker(s): Owns the tiebreaker over DEN. Currently does not own the tiebreaker over NOP
• Current Streak: Lost 1
• Last 10 Games: 8-2

Denver Nuggets

• Tragic number: 4
• Strength of schedule: .549 (brutal)
• Remaining games: Six: @NOP, @HOU, NOP, OKC, @DAL, @OKC
• Tiebreaker: POR owns the tiebreaker
• Current Streak: Won 1
• Last 10 Games: 5-5

New Orleans Pelicans

• Tragic number: 1
• Strength of schedule: .577 (very brutal)
• Remaining games: Five: DEN, @DEN, @GSW, @LAL, @POR
• Tiebreaker: Currently holds the tiebreaker over POR
• Current Streak: Lost 1
• Last 10 Games: 6-4

BNM

 

[SlyPokerDog]

 

[Boob-No-More]

Here are the Blazers projected playoff odds from the top 3 sites as of 4/5/2017:

ESPN's NBA BPI Playoff Odds:
Projected Record = 40-42
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 84.4%
Change = -8.2%

Projected Finish = 8th

FiveThirtyEight.com 2016-17 NBA Predictions:
Projected Record = 41-41
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 89.0%
Change = -6.0%

Projected Finish = 8th

Basketball-Reference.com Playoff Probability Report:
Projected Record = 40.0-42.0
Change = -0.4 wins

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 69.3%
Change = -14.7%

Projected Finish = 8th

Consensus:
Projected Record = 40-42
Change = -1 win

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 80.9%
Change = -9.6%

The Blazers' chances of making the playoffs took a double hit last night. With POR losing to UTA and DEN beating NOP, the consensus odds for the Blazers to seize the 8th seed dropped nearly 10% from 90.5% to 80.9%. All three sites still have the Blazers as the odds on favorites to make the playoffs, but with four games left, our magic number remains stuck on four. The somewhat good news is with NOP's loss to DEN, they are officially eliminated from the playoffs. Maybe they will rest Davis and Cousins in our regular season finale a week from tonight.

Portland Trail Blazers

• Magic number(s): 4 over DEN
  
• Strength of schedule: .459 (easy)
  
• Remaining games: Four: MIN, UTA, SAS, NOP
• Tiebreaker: Owns the tiebreaker over DEN
• Current Streak: Lost 2
• Last 10 Games: 7-3

Denver Nuggets

• Tragic number: 4
• Strength of schedule: .555 (brutal)
• Remaining games: Five: @HOU, NOP, OKC, @DAL, @OKC
• Tiebreaker: POR owns the tiebreaker
• Current Streak: Won 2
• Last 10 Games: 5-5

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

Here are the Blazers projected playoff odds from the top 3 sites as of 4/6/2017:

ESPN's NBA BPI Playoff Odds:
Projected Record = 40-42
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 88.5%
Change = +4.1%

Projected Finish = 8th

FiveThirtyEight.com 2016-17 NBA Predictions:
Projected Record = 41-41
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 93.0%
Change = +4.0%

Projected Finish = 8th

Basketball-Reference.com Playoff Probability Report:
Projected Record = 40.0-42.0
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 74.4%
Change = +5.1%

Projected Finish = 8th

Consensus:
Projected Record = 40-42
Change = -1 win

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 85.3%
Change = +4.4%

Finally, an uptick in the Blazers playoff odds. Denver's loss to Houston last night decreased the Blazers magic number for clinching a playoff spot to 3. Any combination of POR wins and DEN losses that totals 3 cliches the 8th playoff spot for the Blazers. That also caused an upswing in our playoff odds from all three sites. The consensus is now at 85.3% that we will make the playoffs.

And how about some love for HOU? Just kidding! I know now that the Lakers have completely sucked ass for four straight years, HOU is generally the most hated franchise around here (myself included), but they have helped our playoff cause tremendously by beating DEN three times in the last three weeks.

With a magic number of 3, and 4 games left, all at home, hopefully we won't need to rely on any additional help to finally push Denver out of the playoffs. DEN's strength of schedule has finally moderated. They also have four games left, two at home and two on the road. I don't see them winning out. DEN has been so unpredictable recently, beating the teams they shouldn't and losing games they should win. Still, I expect them to lose at least two more games. NOP is a tough match up for them and they have two games left against OKC and Westbrook will be in hyper stat padding mode as he tries to win the MVP award.

Or, we can just take care of our own business and win 3 of our final four games and then it won't matter what DEN does.

Portland Trail Blazers

• Magic number(s): 3 over DEN
  
• Strength of schedule: .459 (easy)
  
• Remaining games: Four: MIN, UTA, SAS, NOP
• Tiebreaker: Owns the tiebreaker over DEN
• Current Streak: Lost 2
• Last 10 Games: 7-3

Denver Nuggets

• Tragic number: 3
• Strength of schedule: .503 (average)
• Remaining games: Four: NOP, OKC, @DAL, @OKC
• Tiebreaker: POR owns the tiebreaker
• Current Streak: Lost 1
• Last 10 Games: 4-6

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

Here are the Blazers projected playoff odds from the top 3 sites as of 4/7/2017:

ESPN's NBA BPI Playoff Odds:
Projected Record = 41-41
Change = +1 win

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 94.4%
Change = +5.9%

Projected Finish = 8th

FiveThirtyEight.com 2016-17 NBA Predictions:
Projected Record = 41-41
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 97.0%
Change = +4.0%

Projected Finish = 8th

Basketball-Reference.com Playoff Probability Report:
Projected Record = 40.5-41.5
Change = + 0.5 wins

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 84.7%
Change = +10.3%

Projected Finish = 8th

Consensus:
Projected Record = 41-41
Change = +1 win

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 92.0%
Change = +6.7%

Last night's win over MIN reduced the Blazers magic number to 2 and bumped our odds to make the playoffs back above 90%. Any combination of POR wins and DEN losses that totals 2 cliches the 8th playoff spot for the Blazers.

Although it's doubtful DEN will win out, we don't need them to. Take care of our own business and win 2 or our remaining games and the 8th seed is ours.

Portland Trail Blazers

• Magic number: 2 over DEN
  
• Strength of schedule: .513 (moderate)
  
• Remaining games: Three: UTA, SAS, NOP
• Tiebreaker: Owns the tiebreaker over DEN
• Current Streak: Won 1
• Last 10 Games: 7-3

Denver Nuggets

• Tragic number: 2
• Strength of schedule: .503 (average)
• Remaining games: Four: NOP, OKC, @DAL, @OKC
• Tiebreaker: POR owns the tiebreaker
• Current Streak: Lost 1
• Last 10 Games: 4-6

BNM

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Spice must flow...

 

[Dougnsalem]

Well, since it deals with Denver, I thought this would be the best spot to put it....

Master Troll @KingSpeed stirring the pot on the Nuggets board....

Thanks. Feeling good. Need you guys to lose your next two, though, so we can clinch it.

But will you guys win three more?

A reply to him....

If not I want you to buy a Nuggets jersey with Plumlee on it and post a picture saying 'Wish we still had the Plumdog'

This is all posted here, totally out of context. From a Blazer fan point of view, there were some pretty damn funny posts. Go Kingspeed!

 

[Boob-No-More]

Here are the Blazers projected playoff odds from the top 3 sites as of 4/8/2017:

ESPN's NBA BPI Playoff Odds:
Projected Record = 41-41
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 91.8%
Change = -2.6%

Projected Finish = 8th

FiveThirtyEight.com 2016-17 NBA Predictions:
Projected Record = 41-41
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 95.0%
Change = -2.0%

Projected Finish = 8th

Basketball-Reference.com Playoff Probability Report:
Projected Record = 40.5-41.5
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 78.5%
Change = -6.2%

Projected Finish = 8th

Consensus:
Projected Record = 41-41
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 88.4%
Change = -3.6%

With Denver's won over NOP last night the Blazers magic number remains frozen at 2. Any combination of POR wins and DEN losses that totals 2 cliches the 8th playoff spot for the Blazers.

Both teams have three games left. We win 2 of 3 and it won't matter what DEN does. If they lose one game, we only need to win 1 of 3 to clinch the 8th seed.

Portland Trail Blazers

• Magic number: 2
  
• Strength of schedule: .513 (not easy)
  
• Remaining games: Three: UTA, SAS, NOP
• Tiebreaker: Owns the tiebreaker over DEN
• Current Streak: Won 1
• Last 10 Games: 7-3

Denver Nuggets

• Tragic number: 2
• Strength of schedule: .554 (brutal)
• Remaining games: Three: OKC, @DAL, @OKC
• Tiebreaker: POR owns the tiebreaker
• Current Streak: Won 1
• Last 10 Games: 5-5

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

Here are the Blazers projected playoff odds from the top 3 sites as of 4/9/2017:

ESPN's NBA BPI Playoff Odds:
Projected Record = 41-41
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 97.9%
Change = +6.1%

Projected Finish = 8th

FiveThirtyEight.com 2016-17 NBA Predictions:
Projected Record = 41-41
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 99.0%
Change = +4.0%

Projected Finish = 8th

Basketball-Reference.com Playoff Probability Report:
Projected Record = 41.0-41.0
Change = +0.5 Wins

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 90.2%
Change = +11.7%

Projected Finish = 8th

Consensus:
Projected Record = 41-41
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 95.7%
Change = +7.3%

After Dame's record setting performance last night, the Blazers magic number now rests at 1. A Blazers win, or a DEN loss, cliches the 8th playoff spot for the Blazers. All three sites now have the Blazers finishing at .500. Quite the turnaround for a team that was 11 games under .500 on February 28, less than six weeks ago. Since that time, the Blazers have gone 16-5.

On February 28, the Blazers were the 11th seed in the West. They were tied with DAL, who owned the tie breaker, half a game behind SAC, 2.5 games behind DEN and only a half game ahead of MIN. They are now 1.5 games ahead of DEN, 7.5 games ahead of DAL and 8.5 games ahead of SAC and MIN. Worst tanking EVER!

With their schedule, I don't expect DEN to win out, but even if they do, the Blazers just need to win one of their remaining two games to clinch. I know the team isn't as good without Nurkic, but after the performance last night, both Lillard's individual scoring barrage and the overall team defense, I'm convinced that if the Blazers need a win to clinch, they will get that win, no matter who the opponent is. Even without Crabbe and Nurkic and C.J. having his worst shooting night of the season, the Blazers beat a very good UTA team by 15 points and controlled the game from start to finish.

Without Nurkic, we are supposed to be struggling against teams with big centers, but have beaten MIN with KAT and UTA with Gobert. It seems the team has adjusted. Kudos to Stotts and staff for figuring out how to win without our dominant big man. Kudos to Vonleh, Meyers and Aminu for stepping up. I know he's hurt and gets a lot of shit around here, but Meyers was damn solid last night. He played good defense and continues to rack up the screen assists to help free up Lillard for a lot off open looks. He has his limitations, but is finding ways to help the team. Same with Vonleh. He struggles offensively, but has been great on the boards and on defense. His 5 offensive rebounds and 3 BLKs were big last night.

Portland Trail Blazers

• Magic number: 1
  
• Strength of schedule: .514 (not easy)
  
• Remaining games: Two: SAS, NOP
• Tiebreaker: Owns the tiebreaker over DEN
• Current Streak: Won 2
• Last 10 Games: 8-2

Denver Nuggets

• Tragic number: 1
• Strength of schedule: .554 (brutal)
• Remaining games: Three: OKC, @DAL, @OKC
• Tiebreaker: POR owns the tiebreaker
• Current Streak: Won 1
• Last 10 Games: 5-5

BNM

 

[Dougnsalem]

Guess this thread is now dead! Thanks again @Boob-No-More for all of the posts!....

 

[Boob-No-More]

Guess this thread is now dead! Thanks again @Boob-No-More for all of the posts!....

It will sure make tomorrow morning's update a lot easier. Here's a quick summary:

100%!!!

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

Here are the Blazers projected playoff odds from the top 3 sites as of 4/10/2017:

ESPN's NBA BPI Playoff Odds:
Projected Record = 41-41
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 100%
Change = +1.1%

Projected Finish = 8th

FiveThirtyEight.com 2016-17 NBA Predictions:
Projected Record = 41-41
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 100%
Change = +1.0%

Projected Finish = 8th

Basketball-Reference.com Playoff Probability Report:
Projected Record = 41.0-41.0
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 98.0% (WTF basketball-reference, ever heard of a tie breaker?)
Change = +7.8%

Projected Finish = 8th

Consensus:
Projected Record = 41-41
Change = No Change

Odds of Making the Playoffs = 99.3% 100%
Change = +4.3%

Courtesy of Russell Westbrook's buzzer beating 3-pointer, the Blazers have officially locked up the 8th seed and will meet the Golden State Warriors in the first round of the 2017 NBA playoffs!

The Blazers have two games left. They host SAS tonight in a game that is meaningless for both teams. Wednesday's game against SAC may get interesting as SAC may be trying to lose to improve their draft position. They are currently tied with MIN and 1 game "ahead" of DAL in the season ending tankathon.

Portland Trail Blazers

• Magic number: Clinched!
• Strength of schedule: Doesn't Matter
• Remaining games: Two: SAS, NOP
• Tiebreaker: Owns the tiebreaker over DEN
• Current Streak: Won 2
• Last 10 Games: 8-2

Denver Nuggets

• Tragic number: Happy Summer!
• Strength of schedule: Don't Care
• Remaining games: Two: @DAL, @OKC
• Tiebreaker: POR owns their ass
• Current Streak: Lost 1
• Last 10 Games: 5-5

BNM

 

[Orion Bailey]

@Boob-No-More

Next is to start providing our odds of winning the first series.

 

[Boob-No-More]

@Boob-No-More

Next is to start providing our odds of winning the first series.

Yep.

BNM

 

[Wizard Mentor]

Blazers record: 38-38
1) Blazers have made it to .500, sweeeeeet! Just need to go 3-3 in the last 6 to stay there.
2) +/- improved to -0.6. Blazers have scored 8250 points, given up 8293. To get to even, need to outscore opponents by 43 points in 6 games = 7.16 ppg.
3) Still 11th in Ortg (0.3 behind Tpups for 10th, still)
4) Steady at 23rd in Drtg

Streaks:
Won 9-1 in last 10
6 game win streak

1) Blazers now need to go 1-1 to finish at .500.
2) +/- improved to -0.5. Blazers have scored 8652 points, given up 8693. To get to even, need to outscore opponents by 41 points in 2 games = 20.5 ppg.
3) Still 11th in Ortg
4) 24th in Drtg, passed by Brooklyn

However, it will be difficult to improve these numbers as we're resting a lot of players against SA tonight. We could easily lose by 30.