2019-20 Blazers Schedule.....

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And we still have a open roster spot, Neil has a plan for the Deadline
 
Hoopguru said:
53 last year and the conference was loaded. I just think we are better/deeper this year but most importantly improved on the d side of the ball.
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Right on. As far as D, you really think we got better? Man, I think we will miss Mo and Chief’s defense out there to be honest.
 
Hoopguru said:
53 last year and the conference was loaded. I just think we are better/deeper this year but most importantly improved on the d side of the ball.
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And win total wise, I don’t think this is going to be a season where if we win less than we did last season we re any worse. The west is loaded, and we are going to have battles night in and night out. We could honestly play better than last year and get 49 wins or so.
 
I've created a pretty realistic Excel simulation. Odds to win each game are based on a 50-win pace.

Trends I'm noticing:
- If the Blazers are at .500 or better at the end of November, we're in good shape
- The schedule is built for large winning streaks later in the season

Will make a video about it.
 
THE HCP said:
And win total wise, I don’t think this is going to be a season where if we win less than we did last season we re any worse. The west is loaded, and we are going to have battles night in and night out. We could honestly play better than last year and get 49 wins or so.
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You might be right, but like other members of the media, haven’t you underestimated us the last few years?
 
tlongII said:
I just like that someone called HCP a member of the media!
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Saw that too. Wonder what it takes to be considered “media”? I had a show on NBA.com for a few years. I have a league issued media credential from the MLS,Boxing,NFL,NBA and the PGA. But it’s not like I’m a “columnist” I’m not hosting a show currently. I do drop mad knowledge on here, that must mean something, right?
 
THE HCP said:
Saw that too. Wonder what it takes to be considered “media”? I had a show on NBA.com for a few years. I have a league issued media credential from the MLS,Boxing,NFL,NBA and the PGA. But it’s not like I’m a “columnist” I’m not hosting a show currently. I drop no knowledge on here, that must mean something, right? yes
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FTFY.
 
Pelton has made so many horrible predictions, for so many years, using his flawed system. I'm baffled that anyone takes him serious, let alone pay to read his garbage predictions. Bone's ideas makes 10 times more sense than Pelton's.
 
BigGameDamian said:
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I usually don't care about national predictions and simulations...

But fuck these, it's so infuriating. The Blazers have made the playoffs 6 years in a row, the last two as the 3 seed, and are coming off a WCF appearance yet only have a 35% chance at making the playoffs? The amount of disrespect has gotten to a stupid level.

And you know what Pelton? If your system undervalues a team every year then your prediction model doesn't fucking work.
 
Wow! 13 of the first 18 on the road? One of the home games is a B2B on a Away-Home turnaround of 3 games in 4 nights against Toronto. Of the away game two are in San Antonio, one is Houston, Clippers, Golden State, Milwaukee, Dallas (who will be no push over this year) Couple of their toughest games were in Dallas last year. Then they also play New Orleans who probably will be a tough match for the Blazers.

Any way you cut this the Blazers have an absolute Brutal first month and a half. They get a little home cookin in December. If they can go 10-10 by the first of December they might get out of this pretty well. I see December as 9-5. So 19-15 by the first of the year. This place will be in full meltdown mode calling for complete rebuilds and the firing of the coach i'm sure.

January looks like 8-7. Huge road trip to start out but they could 3-2 on that 5 game to start the month. But with Milwaukee and Golden State at home which could be losses. and Lakers, Houston (Both Home and Away), Minny and Indiana??? January does not look like an easy month either. 27-22 by the end of January.

February is a 12 game both but it's leap year so they get an extra day. But they play it so it's not a day off. Two B2B's with a Spurs-Jazz turnaround and a Pels Griz road B2B. Teams they could beat but situational B2B's can kill you. Feb looks like 7-5 at best. 34-27 by March 1st.

March is the month to make a move if they are gonna win some serious games. 6 game home stand followed by 6 games on the road that they can do well in. Gonna go with 9-6 in March.
43-33 by April 1st.

4-2 in April puts them at 47-35.

Not as lofty as i would like to hope for. But that is as brutal of a schedule as i have seen in years. If the Blazers win 50 this year they will have over achieved IMO.

Go Blazers!
Kjironman is a fan!!!
 
hoopsjock said:
And you know what Pelton? If your system undervalues a team every year then your prediction model doesn't fucking work.
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This is what gets me. Same with 538 projections. Change up your equations then.

Here's the WC list:

1. HOU -- 53.7 -- playoffs 99%
2. DEN -- 53.3 -- 99%
3. LAL -- 47.9 -- 90%
4. LAC -- 47.8 -- 87%
5. UTA -- 46.8 -- 86%
6. GSW -- 46.4 -- 84%
7. DAL -- 44.0 -- 70%
8. POR -- 40.2 -- 35%
9. SAC -- 39.9 -- 34%
10. MIN --30.5 -- 31%
11. SAS -- 38.6
12. NOP -- 38.5
13. PHX -- 38
14. OKC -- 36.6
15. MEM -- 31.9

So it says we'll be closer to PHX than Dallas.

This is our fourth season using RPM for projections, which have correctly picked teams' preseason lines 57.5% of the time in that span.
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Curious how they measure "correctly" but 57.5 is a horrible record no matter how you slice it. I can correctly predict the lines by just eye balling it better than that.
 
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kjironman1 said:
Wow! 13 of the first 18 on the road? One of the home games is a B2B on a Away-Home turnaround of 3 games in 4 nights against Toronto. Of the away game two are in San Antonio, one is Houston, Clippers, Golden State, Milwaukee, Dallas (who will be no push over this year) Couple of their toughest games were in Dallas last year. Then they also play New Orleans who probably will be a tough match for the Blazers.

Any way you cut this the Blazers have an absolute Brutal first month and a half. They get a little home cookin in December. If they can go 10-10 by the first of December they might get out of this pretty well. I see December as 9-5. So 19-15 by the first of the year. This place will be in full meltdown mode calling for complete rebuilds and the firing of the coach i'm sure.

January looks like 8-7. Huge road trip to start out but they could 3-2 on that 5 game to start the month. But with Milwaukee and Golden State at home which could be losses. and Lakers, Houston (Both Home and Away), Minny and Indiana??? January does not look like an easy month either. 27-22 by the end of January.

February is a 12 game both but it's leap year so they get an extra day. But they play it so it's not a day off. Two B2B's with a Spurs-Jazz turnaround and a Pels Griz road B2B. Teams they could beat but situational B2B's can kill you. Feb looks like 7-5 at best. 34-27 by March 1st.

March is the month to make a move if they are gonna win some serious games. 6 game home stand followed by 6 games on the road that they can do well in. Gonna go with 9-6 in March.
43-33 by April 1st.

4-2 in April puts them at 47-35.

Not as lofty as i would like to hope for. But that is as brutal of a schedule as i have seen in years. If the Blazers win 50 this year they will have over achieved IMO.

Go Blazers!
Kjironman is a fan!!!
Click to expand...
Nice breakdown. Thats why I'm going with #45WinsFAMS
 
illmatic99 said:
This is what gets me. Same with 538 projections. Change up your equations then.

Here's the WC list:

1. HOU -- 53.7 -- playoffs 99%
2. DEN -- 53.3 -- 99%
3. LAL -- 47.9 -- 90%
4. LAC -- 47.8 -- 87%
5. UTA -- 46.8 -- 86%
6. GSW -- 46.4 -- 84%
7. DAL -- 44.0 -- 70%
8. POR -- 40.2 -- 35%
9. SAC -- 39.9 -- 34%
10. MIN --30.5 -- 31%
11. SAS -- 38.6
12. NOP -- 38.5
13. PHX -- 38
14. OKC -- 36.6
15. MEM -- 31.9

So it says we'll be closer to PHX than Dallas.



Curious how they measure "correctly" but 57.5 is a horrible record no matter how you slice it. I can correctly predict the lines by just eye balling it better than that.
Click to expand...
Exactly, if you're using some fancy analytical based formula you should be more accurate than people who just predict seeding otherwise what's the point?

To say that we'll be 13 games behind both Houston and Denver is ludicrous. Last year 9 games separated 1 from 8 in the West. Only 6 games separated 2 from 8. I don't think any of these teams are good enough (some because of injury) to separate from the pack by that much. To me it's going to be a similar battle to the last couple years.
 
THE HCP said:
Nice breakdown. Thats why I'm going with #45WinsFAMS
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Seriously that is a rough schedule this year. They are going to have to really make the most of the games they have some rest on. I would also like to see them start using the scheduled rest games eventually. Just no need to try to go into Oakland and play huge minutes on the fourth game in five nights when Golden State is on two days rest. Let the end guys push the ball all night and force the Warriors to work harder.

Do they give the media guys any minutes reductions? Maybe extra treats in the truck? Oops there is go calling you media? That might catch on if it's said a third time?
 
hoopsjock said:
Last year 9 games separated 1 from 8 in the West. Only 6 games separated 2 from 8.
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Exactly! How the flying fuck do they come up with 13 games between 1st and 8th seed? then here is the other thing. seriously 23 games between 1st and 10th seed? What year in the last 20 has there ever been that kind of gap? every year there is a dog fight between 6-10. This whole 16 game gap between 6-10 is a head scratcher for sure? The one place in most recent years there has been a gap is 1-2-3. Usually one team seams to have a nice 4 or 5 game cushion. But that is it.
 
BonesJones said:
I think we'll be on a 50-win pace if we are.
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Sure hope so. My number from the system i have used for a while came up 47. But there are always circumstances we can't always see. I pretty much do the same system you do but way way less involved. I look at road vs home and game stretches with time and travel. Gotta figure a second of a B2B in Utah after playing the Spurs on National TV at home is probably gonna be a tough game. Most times i would give that 50/50 but in that instance i give it about a 25% chance and really it's probably more like 10%. Utah is always a tough place to win a game.
Things like that are tough to categorize.

I would be very happy with a 50 win season for sure.
 
I'm officially in wait and see mode.

55 wins is out.
 
illmatic99 said:
This is what gets me. Same with 538 projections. Change up your equations then.

Here's the WC list:

1. HOU -- 53.7 -- playoffs 99%
2. DEN -- 53.3 -- 99%
3. LAL -- 47.9 -- 90%
4. LAC -- 47.8 -- 87%
5. UTA -- 46.8 -- 86%
6. GSW -- 46.4 -- 84%
7. DAL -- 44.0 -- 70%
8. POR -- 40.2 -- 35%
9. SAC -- 39.9 -- 34%
10. MIN --30.5 -- 31%
11. SAS -- 38.6
12. NOP -- 38.5
13. PHX -- 38
14. OKC -- 36.6
15. MEM -- 31.9

So it says we'll be closer to PHX than Dallas.



Curious how they measure "correctly" but 57.5 is a horrible record no matter how you slice it. I can correctly predict the lines by just eye balling it better than that.
Click to expand...

Their numbers assume static rosters and do not evaluate things like:

- Injuries, there are always injuries each year that wildly swing projections.
- Player movement - you can't predict this, and it changes a team's outlook during the season
- Post all-star break team goals. A lot of bad teams win more games at the beginning of the season when playoffs are still in reach. Once teams start facing the reality of missing the playoffs there is a shift in strategy for many teams (tanking).
- Schedule plays a big part in overall records by the end of the year. Playing OKC at the beginning of the year versus end of the year is a completely different matchup.
 
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