2019 Offseason Storylines 1: Mario Hezonja

[TorturedBlazerFan]

By the time you guessed I had time to look up the actual numbers for both players rook !

(Also 45.8 would be rounded to 46 so it's not even a good exemple)

uhh 45.8 would be rounded to 46 and 43.1 would be rounded down to 43 which the difference would be 3 percent...? I know it's early and I haven't had my coffee yet but what am I missing? lol

 

[Reep]

Nah...it just means the roster was incomplete. The prior absence of a PG doesn't invalidate the talent at the other positions.

My point is that at this time in the offseason, and with only the minimum to offer, the chances of finding a backup PG who can also knock down threes at a high rate (basic Blazer offense) is probably very unlikely, and that player would likely non-rotation talent that we are forced to play in the rotation because of bad planning.

 

[Scalma]

Portland needs to sign someone else ASAP because these convos are getting sooo dorky.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

If you listened to Olshey rave and spin, you'd believe Nas is so good he's going to contribute on a contender his rookie year. Reality is Little couldn't contribute on a G-league team his rookie year.

I don't have anything against how Olshey does his job or his decision making. Nobody bats 100 percent. But I am to the point that I can't fucking stand watching him speak or listening to his schpeel.

I think you're just oversensitive. He was asked if Nas would be in the rotation THIS year.... which is ridiculous on our team, and of course he's not going to say "no" and limit the guy. He said "if he plays so well that the coaching staff can't keep him off the floor, he'll play" (I'm paraphrasing). He didn't say Nas will play.

Right now Nas is Kidd-Gilchrist, which is pretty freaking great. But MKG never developed a jump shot, and Nas is already on the way.

 

[BonesJones]

The track record of shooters leaving the Blazers and lighting it up on other teams from 3 is not good.

I just ran the numbers:
View attachment 27007

Layman man buck the trend, but I doubt it.

I was surprised to see even Connaughton fell off some, even with all the space Giannis creates. I wonder if it's just a confidence thing. If you watch Dame make these crazy-ass three point shots, ho-hum wide open threes may not seem like such a big deal?

(Gerald Henderson's didn't change at all, so I left him out. But he was out of the league a year after leaving us. Probably regrets not re-signing here, given how well he did on the Blazers.)

Bringing it back on-topic, in looking at what we can expect out of out of Hezonja, it's useful to look to see if there's a 3 pointer Blazers Bump for other players. I ran it for these guys:
View attachment 27008

(Hood is interesting, but you have to remember it's a small sample size. He only played 27 regular season games for us.)

Anyway, it's pretty clear that if you are a betting man you'd do well to gamble that Mario improves and Jake declines, at least for the first season. Especially when you factor in Layman is going to the Twolves, playing off Andrew Wiggins instead of Dame/CJ.

You had two of your four guys with negligible decline. Its also nothing substantial, in terms of Crabbe having one season of overachievement before leaving.

Harkless 18% was an abboration as well. That 18% was on 56 3pt attempts. The year before he had a much larger sample of 38% on 154 3pt attwmpts. He was a career 31% 3pt shooter before coming to Portland.

Aminu's 3pt shooting didnt improve from anything more than an improvement in form. Check his form before and after Portland.

You also have to take into account that, with a consistent role and natural progression, Layman would've improved his 3pt% here as well.

And Hezonja would have to mightily improve to be even an average shooter. Again, banking on such sizeable improvement for a team trying to contend isnt good. The expectations for him are far too high.

 

[BonesJones]

This debate is good one and will most certainly be bumped at some point. Jake and Hark had their moments at different things. But what I see from Mario, in those limited highlights, is a better all around player than either. A higher BBIQ. He looks to be more versatile.

Granted I tend to fall in love with players who can do a little of everything because they tend to compliment their teammates more. No matter which ones are on the floor. Not sure if he is really 240 but if he is close to that he gives us so many more options. I am not sure Mario is great at anything but regardless of his stats, the eye ball test tells me that for a forward he is a decent passer, dribbler, 3 point shooter, mid range shooter off the dribble, can attack the basket, can rebound, and has a good vertical lift and aerial agility for his size.

Again I am not sure he will be be great at any of those skills but the combination of all those things makes me think he will help this team more than Hark and Jake (Whom I both liked)

The one important thing I think we lose was Hark's ability to guard athletic SGs (when he was healthy enough to stay on the floor) But with Baze and Hood I think we are fine there. It will be interesting to see what Mario weights in at. Maybe we should be comparing him to Aminu instead.

Thats the problem. People are setting extremely high expectations for Hezonja based off of limited highlights.

 

[Scalma]

Thats the problem. People are setting extremely high expectations for Hezonja based off of limited highlights.

Stances like this would have more merit if it didn’t come from the same person who a week ago was ready to throw the 25th pick in the draft into the starting lineup of a playoff team.

 

[Reep]

I have to admit I don't really get the point of comparing Hezonja to Layman or Harkless. Harkless was a great defender, and when he played with energy could impact the game on offense to a limited degree. Layman moved great without the ball and had a pretty shooting stroke, that didn't seem to consistently work. Hezonja is more a Swiss Army kind of player. Not a great defender or outside shooter, but rebounds, has vision and can pass, and can handle the ball better than either of the other two. Why not compare Hezonja to Nurkic?

Does anyone really believe that Hezonja does NOT have better handles, passing, mid-range scoring and rebounding, than Layman or Harkless? (Harkless is 5.8 Reb/36 for career; Hezonja is also 5.8 Reb/36 for career, but is younger and had 7.1 Reb/36 last year.). The three just aren't comparable.

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

From CBS: The Blazers made a big move to replace the injured Jusuf Nurkic with Whiteside, a polarizing player to say the least. They're hoping a fresh start in their positive culture will get him going, but it certainly could go the other way. Bazemore is a solid addition, but losing Harkless and Aminu will hurt the defense, while they also lost shooting with Curry's departure. If Mario Hezonja is expected to get actual playing time for you, you have to question how your offseason went. Offseason grade: C

 

[Reep]

From CBS: The Blazers made a big move to replace the injured Jusuf Nurkic with Whiteside, a polarizing player to say the least. They're hoping a fresh start in their positive culture will get him going, but it certainly could go the other way. Bazemore is a solid addition, but losing Harkless and Aminu will hurt the defense, while they also lost shooting with Curry's departure. If Mario Hezonja is expected to get actual playing time for you, you have to question how your offseason went. Offseason grade: C

I have to wonder sometimes how many of these people actually watched the team last year. If you watched the playoff games it's hard to not see that Harkless and Aminu where the ceiling of this team. Keeping them doesn't make the team better. I don't know if the team will be better next season, but at least there is a very good shot that they will be. I'm glad Olshey took a shot at it rather than hoping for better results from the same lineup with the same weaknesses.

 

[CupWizier]

It really doesn't matter Jake great hustle and some pretty good game he kind of left the rotation in the 2nd half of the season and out in the playoffs. But Aminu started get his minutes shorten in the playoffs too. Now we shouldn't be dogging Hezonja before he even play for us. So I will root for him being successful for us.

Bingo. It always amazes me the debbie downers immediately come out and dog on a new player who hasn't played a single game for us yet.

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

I think because many of us fans really want to have a good point forward on the team (which should bring a more varied, exciting offense); we have a hope that is probably irrational that somehow the synchronicity of a new team, new coach, new system and another year older will bring a miraculous transition in Hezonja's game. We'll probably be disappointed, but you can't stop us from hoping!

 

[Scalma]

I have to wonder sometimes how many of these people actually watched the team last year.

The same amount as every other year.

 

[Pinwheel1]

Why not compare Hezonja to Nurkic?

Does anyone really believe that Hezonja does NOT have better handles, passing, mid-range scoring and rebounding, than Layman or Harkless? (Harkless is 5.8 Reb/36 for career; Hezonja is also 5.8 Reb/36 for career, but is younger and had 7.1 Reb/36 last year.). The three just aren't comparable.

Probably because of their position. But to your point the NBA is becoming more position-less. It is all about match ups and your Swiss Army Knife description is valid. Eventually I am hoping to see a Nurk, Zach, and Mario line up with Dame and CJ........and a Dame, CJ, Mario, with either Hood or Baze and either Nurk or Zach. (or Whiteside)

Bottom line is that having that versatile player at 6'8" 230-240 who can guard bigger wings and smaller PF's while being able to dribble, pass, and shoot is intriguing. Not saying he will ever be the defender Draymond is but I am pretty sure he will be a better offensive player at the same size. Which most of us have been hoping for. GS got really lucky with Green and we will have to get really lucky for it to happen with Mario. But here is to hoping.

 

[SIeepwalker]

uhh 45.8 would be rounded to 46 and 43.1 would be rounded down to 43 which the difference would be 3 percent...? I know it's early and I haven't had my coffee yet but what am I missing? lol

The posters asked why in that chart, curry shooting % went from 43 to 45 which would seemingly be a 2% increase, but the chart says 3%

In your example, it would go from 43% to 46%, so the 3% would be correct. You're therefore not explaining the problem.

 

[wizenheimer]

Bringing it back on-topic, in looking at what we can expect out of out of Hezonja, it's useful to look to see if there's a 3 pointer Blazers Bump for other players. I ran it for these guys:
View attachment 27008

(Hood is interesting, but you have to remember it's a small sample size. He only played 27 regular season games for us.)

Anyway, it's pretty clear that if you are a betting man you'd do well to gamble that Mario improves and Jake declines, at least for the first season. Especially when you factor in Layman is going to the Twolves, playing off Andrew Wiggins instead of Dame/CJ.

first off...nice work Mook, I like the format you used

but it's no fun not to quibble so here goes:

* I think you have to throw Harkless out. His entire career is outlier, and nothing is more outy than his 3 point percentages:

2012-13 .274 2013-14 .383 2014-15 .179 2015-16 .279 2016-17 .351 2017-18 .415 2018-19 .275

he's all over the map and there's no correlations to be found IMO
--------------------------------------------
* I don't think Curry is notable. Yeah he shot 45% in Portland after 42.5% the year before. But the previous season, he shot 45% so he just came back to a level he'd already established
---------------------------------------------
there are other players to look at for the 'joining Portland bump'

* Sasha Pavlovich went up from .293 to .300; but he had 5 previous season well above .300. No trend
* Mo Williams dropped from .383 to .369
* Dorrell Wright dropped from .374 to .342
* Napier jumped from .327 to .370
* Stauskas dropped .404 to .344
------------------------------------------------

I don't think there's as much of a Portland bump as it's made out to be. My theory would be that since Portland tries to maximize 3 point opportunities and the coaches encourage players to shoot them, it instills a little more confidence in the shooters

but there are all levels of 3 point shooters. Great ones like Seth Curry. Above average like CJ. Average like Dame and Mo Williams. Generally undependable like Aminu, Harkless, Stauskas, etc. And terrible like ET. The system those undependable shooters play in might give them a little more juice, but it doesn't really change their nature. By and large they kind of suck. Sometimes they get hot...for a short stretch, but mostly, they chip paint

Hezonja has shot 755 three's so there's no sample size issue. He's made 32% over 4 seasons with a high of .349 (1st season) and a low of .276 (last season). He's not been a good shooter...that's pretty clear. Probably the best you can hope for is he tracks like Aminu, but that still leaves him as an undependable shooter; and that means he'll have to bring a lot more to the floor. Aminu brought really good defense and strong rebounding. What Hezonja will actually bring is unclear right now

 

[Hoopguru]

From CBS: The Blazers made a big move to replace the injured Jusuf Nurkic with Whiteside, a polarizing player to say the least. They're hoping a fresh start in their positive culture will get him going, but it certainly could go the other way. Bazemore is a solid addition, but losing Harkless and Aminu will hurt the defense, while they also lost shooting with Curry's departure. If Mario Hezonja is expected to get actual playing time for you, you have to question how your offseason went. Offseason grade: C

don't agree with c, id give them a B.
They acquire one of the best defensive 5's in the league to cover for Nurk, by trading two players that haven't been all that consistent. This transaction is a B in itself.
Then we acquire a young player to replace Turner that can flat out play both ends. That trade is an A itself.
Sign Herzonga - he will contribute more than Curry all around..
Sign Rodney Hood..thats a B at least
Tolliver is a legit vet PF of which we haven't had for a few years.
We now have wings with great IQ and much better shooting, imo. Our Defense with the newly acquired guys will be better than last years.
Legit B sumer transactions - C is average and ours was above average

 

[BonesJones]

Stances like this would have more merit if it didn’t come from the same person who a week ago was ready to throw the 25th pick in the draft into the starting lineup of a playoff team.

Oh chill out. I suggested him as a possible token Vonleh-type starter. Shamet was drafted 26th last year and served that role for two different playoff teams. Obviously that idea was dependent upon how far along hed be his rookie year, which became evident after summer league.

 

[BonesJones]

Bingo. It always amazes me the debbie downers immediately come out and dog on a new player who hasn't played a single game for us yet.

It always amazes me how youre always conplaining about other people. Chill.

 

[BonesJones]

I have to admit I don't really get the point of comparing Hezonja to Layman or Harkless. Harkless was a great defender, and when he played with energy could impact the game on offense to a limited degree. Layman moved great without the ball and had a pretty shooting stroke, that didn't seem to consistently work. Hezonja is more a Swiss Army kind of player. Not a great defender or outside shooter, but rebounds, has vision and can pass, and can handle the ball better than either of the other two. Why not compare Hezonja to Nurkic?

Does anyone really believe that Hezonja does NOT have better handles, passing, mid-range scoring and rebounding, than Layman or Harkless? (Harkless is 5.8 Reb/36 for career; Hezonja is also 5.8 Reb/36 for career, but is younger and had 7.1 Reb/36 last year.). The three just aren't comparable.

Evan Turner had a the same advantages. Howd that workout?

And why would we compare a forward to a Centwr instead of othwr forwards?

 

[Scalma]

Oh shut up. I suggested him as a possible token Vonleh-type starter. Shamet was drafted 26th last year and served that role for two different playoff teams. Obviously that idea was dependent upon how far along hed be his rookie year, which became evident after summer league.

The point is you overreact to players allllllll the time, the only reason you aren’t with Hezonja is because you don’t like him. And it’s ok if you do overreact, since pretty much everyone does it, but to then turn around and police it is.. funny.

 

[BonesJones]

The point is you overreact to players allllllll the time, the only reason you aren’t with Hezonja is because you don’t like him. And it’s ok if you do overreact, since pretty much everyone does it, but to then turn around and police it is.. funny.

Says the dude who thought Stauskas was gonna be good last year and I had to try to talk you down from that. Here we are again with Hezonja.

Who do I overreact to? I'm told I'm more negative then anything.

I suggested Little as a token starter if he was good enough to handle 15 minutes a game. It was a hypothetical with conditions. Very different.

 

[Scalma]

Says the dude who thought Stauskas was gonna be good last year and I had to try to talk you down from that. Here we are again witb Hezonja.

Who do I overreact to? I'm told I'm more negative then anything.

I suggested Little as a token starter if he was good enough to handle 15 minutes a game. It was a hypothetical with conditions. Very different.

You don’t want to go down this road, Mr. Doncic is just another Evan Turner.

 

[CupWizier]

It always amazes me how youre always conplaining about other people. Chill.

 

[Paine Tablet]

He played on such a bad team they won 17 games. Jake was on a 53 win team. Of course his metric numbers are going to be better. The fact Jake could not stay on the court because he was abused on defense and as a whole his individual numbers are worse basically across the board is all the matters. Lets see what Mario's numbers are next year when he is not surrounded by the worst roster in the NBA.

This is such a shit narrative. The team was winning when he was playing, just as they were winning when he wasn't. His play had NOTHING to do with his lack of playing time and the team suffered NOTHING when he played.

 

[twobullz]

This is such a shit narrative. The team was winning when he was playing, just as they were winning when he wasn't. His play had NOTHING to do with his lack of playing time and the team suffered NOTHING when he played.

So him getting abused on defense had nothing to do with it huh. I know Stotts all of a sudden didn't like him and pulled him. Oh wait if that was the case he never would have played in the first place. He had his chance and showed he was not someone you could rely on. The team did suffer when he played, that is why he was benched in the playoffs. When he did play he was the worst defender on the court and a non contributor on the offensive end.

 

[SIeepwalker]

Please tell me you see the irony in this

 

[BonesJones]

You don’t want to go down this road, Mr. Doncic is just another Evan Turner.

Damn, you had the time to go back a year and still couldnt find enough ammo that you could paraphrase correctly? Shit! I'll even quote it myself!

He seems like someone that could have trouble getting his shot away off the dribble. He also seems like a player that would struggle getting to the rim, and if he can't do that, then he won't cause defenses to collapse to open up passing lanes for open shots from teammates.

For someone who's dribbling is such an important part of his game, I think his lack of quickness will hold him back. Evan Turner was viewed in a similar light coming out of Ohio State as Doncic is now.

"Seems like he might sruggle getting to the rim". Didnt even say he would for sure, just said it was a question mark.
"I think his lack of quickness might hold him back". Damn, I was wrong, would you look at that!
"Evan Turner had the same draft stock when he was coming out of Ohio State". Turner's was actually higher, he went 2nd while Doncic went 3rd.

No where did I say he was another Evan Turner. If youre going to put that nuch time trying to find ammo to use on me, at least use it accurately.

So what road do I not want to go down?

 

[BonesJones]

This is such a shit narrative. The team was winning when he was playing, just as they were winning when he wasn't. His play had NOTHING to do with his lack of playing time and the team suffered NOTHING when he played.

Let me get this straight... so because Jake was on a winning team, and the team won without him as well, the advanced stats that gauge the difference in team production with and without him are bullshit?

Huh?

 

[BonesJones]

don't agree with c, id give them a B.
They acquire one of the best defensive 5's in the league to cover for Nurk, by trading two players that haven't been all that consistent. This transaction is a B in itself.
Then we acquire a young player to replace Turner that can flat out play both ends. That trade is an A itself.
Sign Herzonga - he will contribute more than Curry all around..
Sign Rodney Hood..thats a B at least
Tolliver is a legit vet PF of which we haven't had for a few years.
We now have wings with great IQ and much better shooting, imo. Our Defense with the newly acquired guys will be better than last years.
Legit B sumer transactions - C is average and ours was above average

Huh?