Game Thread 2022-23 Game #5 BLAZERS VS HEAT - OCTOBER 26, 2022 - WEDNESDAY - 7:00 PM (PDT) ROOT

[wizenheimer]

I’m actually offended by this.

---said HCP while looking in the mirror

 

[julius]

I’m actually offended by this.

That's what she said.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

I’m actually offended by this.

I think he said you and Eric's takes are exactly the opposite. ie, not similar at all.

 

[PDXFonz]

You are honestly typing that our takes and views are similar? WHat the fuck!?

Green font?

You two are definitely on different ends of the Blazer fan scales.

He’s “you’ll believe me when you see it”.

You come across more “I want to see it first”

 

[GrandpaBlaze]

I sometimes feel like if we mixed @THE HCP and @KSF-ERIC we'd probably get a pretty good view of things.

Eric tends to over-react both positively and negatively.
HCP often tends to predict on a conservative side.

I'm glad both post and value both as contributors.

 

[wizenheimer]

I sometimes feel like if we mixed @THE HCP and @KSF-ERIC we'd probably get a pretty good view of things.

the view of a bullfrog driving an uber?

 

[PtldPlatypus]

1-3. 1-4 after tonight. Last year was last year.

Their losses are to the Raptors, Bucks, and Celtics. Playoff teams. No reason to think they won't be one themselves. It's foolhardy to pretend this is some walkover game.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

the view of a bullfrog driving an uber?

If Eric has already been an Uber driver, does that make HCP the bullfrog?

 

[Wizard Mentor]

538 prediction before season:
projected record: 38-55, with 42% chance of making playoffs

current predictions (blazers are 4-0)
projected record: 40-42, with 41% chance of making playoffs.

So, we won our first 4 games, and our chance of making the playoffs went DOWN????

 

[GrandpaBlaze]

If Eric has already been an Uber driver, does that make HCP the bullfrog?

No. Jeremiah was the bullfrog.

 

[Shaboid]

HPV playing the victim again...

 

[illmatic99]

538 prediction before season:
projected record: 38-55, with 42% chance of making playoffs

current predictions (blazers are 4-0)
projected record: 40-42, with 41% chance of making playoffs.

So, we won our first 4 games, and our chance of making the playoffs went DOWN????

too much noise in these models with low sample size. let's see how this looks around game 15 or so

 

[wizenheimer]

If Eric has already been an Uber driver, does that make HCP the bullfrog?

all options open

 

[Wizard Mentor]

too much noise in these models with low sample size. let's see how this looks around game 15 or so

shouldn't be. The models move teams up when they "win", down when they "lose". Portland is 4-0, so they should have moved up, not down.

I have win in quotes, because it's really "perform better than expected". No one expected us to go 4-0.

 

[Pinwheel1]

No. Jeremiah was the bullfrog.

I thought he was a friend of mine, but the bastard would never let me drink his wine.

 

[illmatic99]

shouldn't be. The models move teams up when they "win", down when they "lose". Portland is 4-0, so they should have moved up, not down.

I have win in quotes, because it's really "perform better than expected". No one expected us to go 4-0.

have they deviated much from preseason projections for any other teams?

 

[Wade Garrett]

No national media respect yet that im aware of.
And i believe thats a great thing!!!

The Blazers were item #1 with Ernie, Chuck, Kenny & Shaq on yesterdays Tip-off show.
Ric Bucher mentioned them as his biggest surprise today on Colin's show. (Colin called them "legitimate").
Screaming A. Smith is back to hyping Dame.
They are definitely turning heads.
So far.
But, they could be 34-11 and totally disappear from the spotlight as well.

 

[illmatic99]

@Wizard Mentor just looking at their projections, here is what i saw as the biggest jumps upward from Oct 13 to today.

Utah: 38 to 42
Spurs: 30 to 34
NOP: 42 to 45
POR: 38 to 40
PHX: 49 to 51

perhaps their models have the variance of a 3-4 game winstreak already built in so as not to have too many jumps. hence my comment on sample size.

 

[HailBlazers]

I've never bet on the Blazers before but I did this year, over 39.5. Lines now 43.5.

 

[SharpeScooterShooter]

Dame 28-1 for MVP. Dropping $100

 

[Idog1976]

538 prediction before season:
projected record: 38-55, with 42% chance of making playoffs

current predictions (blazers are 4-0)
projected record: 40-42, with 41% chance of making playoffs.

So, we won our first 4 games, and our chance of making the playoffs went DOWN????

538 is trash and is safe to ignore on basically everything.

 

[crandc]

I thought he was a friend of mine, but the bastard would never let me drink his wine.

Too bad. I hear he had some mighty fine wine.

 

[Idog1976]

look....3 pt percentages almost always drop as a season progresses. Happens every year

Portland is shooting 39.5% from 3 right now. Last season, Miami led the league shooting 37.9%. The Warriors shot 36.4%. Teams have hit that .395 mark before, but only about a half dozen times in the last 10 years, and those times were mostly by the Warriors or the Spurs

now, it's possible that Portland could regress in percentage at a lesser rate than the league average regression. But I'd be pretty confident the Blazers won't finish at 39%, let alone improve on their current 39.5%

Portland's 3 pt percentages the last few years, going backwards from last season:

.346
.385 (might be the Blazer record)
.377
.359
.366
.375
.370
.362
.372
.353 (Dame's rookie season)

I think I must have looked at stats for the team before the last game. I didn't realize we were hitting at that clip I just looked at the guy’s whose number I pulled. You are clearly correct.

 

[Fairly-Hard]

That's how ESPN has it too.

View attachment 50400

If they keep saying Portland will lose eventually they will be right. Just might not be until next year.

 

[andalusian]

shouldn't be. The models move teams up when they "win", down when they "lose". Portland is 4-0, so they should have moved up, not down.

I have win in quotes, because it's really "perform better than expected". No one expected us to go 4-0.

This would be true if the model is judged for the team in a vacuum, but it does not, it looks at the entire league. So, some teams that were supposed to be good are still supposed to be good given the small sample size, but some teams that were predicted to be even worse than Portland also won a lot more than expected, which in turn, makes Portland's chances move a bit.

 

[PDXFonz]

Have to wonder how things will go if we see Nurk in early foul trouble against a big who is going off. We’re bound to see it at some point.

Bam is legit. Somewhat under the radar. Butler gets more attention and focus.

Their 3 point shooters can be lethal too. Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro.

 

[Duckhook]

I got the Blazers at +2.5... is Lillard out or something? I jumped on it

 

[riverman]

I’m actually offended by this.

This is the first step from being a soccer mom to becoming a true Karen!

 

[blazerfan11]

Miami , Shmiami. Heat, Shmeat. That's all I've got to say.

 

[TBpup]

A mobile, athletic '5' that can stretch the floor. Could cause Nurk some problems which will create rotational problems, and the Blazers haven't been very good at that as of yet.

Still, who is going to step up tonight that will chill the Heat?