Game Thread 2023-24 PRESEASON - BLAZERS @ JAZZ - OCTOBER 14, 2023 - SATURDAY - 6:00 PM - ROOT, NBA LP

[PtldPlatypus]

Is it really true Dame was on the floor 75% of the time in those 3 years?

20-21: Ant/Dame played together fewer than 700 minutes (not enough to register in the team's top-20 2-man combos). Ant started zero games and played 1104 minutes. He likely played most of his minutes without Dame.

21-22: Ant/Dame played together fewer than 450 minutes (not enough to register in the team's top-20 2-man combos). Ant started 30 games, mostly after Dame's injury, and played 1681 minutes total. The vast majority of his minutes were without Dame on the floor.

22-23: Ant/Dame played together 1251 minutes. Ant started all 62 games he played, and played 2171 minutes. 57.6% of his minutes were with Dame.

At most, Dame and Ant could possibly have played 2390 of 4956 minutes together over the past 3 years, though the total was likely far less, probably closer to 1800 giving a range of 36-48% Ant's minutes occurring with Dame on the floor. What seems clear, however, is that Dame's presence on the floor with Ant did not improve his efficiency. Correlation/causation... you be the judge. But it is not unreasonable to believe that his efficiency may increase this season in Dame's absence.

 

[kjironman1]

20-21: Ant/Dame played together fewer than 700 minutes (not enough to register in the team's top-20 2-man combos). Ant started zero games and played 1104 minutes. He likely played most of his minutes without Dame.

21-22: Ant/Dame played together fewer than 450 minutes (not enough to register in the team's top-20 2-man combos). Ant started 30 games, mostly after Dame's injury, and played 1681 minutes total. The vast majority of his minutes were without Dame on the floor.

22-23: Ant/Dame played together 1251 minutes. Ant started all 62 games he played, and played 2171 minutes. 57.6% of his minutes were with Dame.

At most, Dame and Ant could possibly have played 2390 of 4956 minutes together over the past 3 years, though the total was likely far less, probably closer to 1800 giving a range of 36-48% Ant's minutes occurring with Dame on the floor. What seems clear, however, is that Dame's presence on the floor with Ant did not improve his efficiency. Correlation/causation... you be the judge. But it is not unreasonable to believe that his efficiency may increase this season in Dame's absence.

Thing here is there is no defensive metric on who is guarding whom? With Dame on the floor Ant obviously isn't the primary concern of the defense. They won't double Ant because they will double Dame.
This is why stats fail miserably much of the time. Defenses play teams according to who is on the floor.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Thing here is there is no defensive metric on who is guarding whom? With Dame on the floor Ant obviously isn't the primary concern of the defense. They won't double Ant because they will double Dame.
This is why stats fail miserably much of the time. Defenses play teams according to who is on the floor.

The point here is that conventional wisdom says that when Ant is playing more minutes with Dame, when Ant isn't the primary concern of the defense, it should be easier for him to score efficiently. In fact, the evidence suggests the opposite to be true; Ant's efficiency decreased as his time with Dame increased.

82games shows something similar when looking at his "by position" production. Ant was much more productive and efficient as a PG (without Dame) than as an SG (with Dame).

 

[kjironman1]

The point here is that conventional wisdom says that when Ant is playing more minutes with Dame, when Ant isn't the primary concern of the defense, it should be easier for him to score efficiently. In fact, the evidence suggests the opposite to be true; Ant's efficiency decreased as his time with Dame increased.

82games shows something similar when looking at his "by position" production. Ant was much more productive and efficient as a PG (without Dame) than as an SG (with Dame).

You are talking about efficiency though. Too many variables. What shots are available for him with Dame on the floor? You’re trying to say they are the same?
I don’t buy it for a minute that Dame being on the court with him lowers his efficiency. The shots he takes lowers his efficiency.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

You are talking about efficiency though. Too many variables. What shots are available for him with Dame on the floor? You’re trying to say they are the same?
I don’t buy it for a minute that Dame being on the court with him lowers his efficiency. The shots he takes lowers his efficiency.

First of all, I'm talking about both production and efficiency. And I'm not talking at all about the details on the inputs--just the results.

Second, I didn't say that being on the floor with Dame lowers his efficiency; just that he has, in fact, been less efficient with Dame than without him. Why that happens to be the case, you are welcome to analyze or speculate.

 

[kjironman1]

First of all, I'm talking about both production and efficiency. And I'm not talking at all about the details on the inputs--just the results.

Second, I didn't say that being on the floor with Dame lowers his efficiency; just that he has, in fact, been less efficient with Dame than without him. Why that happens to be the case, you are welcome to analyze or speculate.

Too many variables as I've already stated.
Nope not gonna analyze or speculate. Simons is what he is. Hope he has a good season.

 

[RR7]

Ant's 3pt shooting over last 3 seasons:

2020-21: 3PA = 4.4....3ptFG% = .426
2021-22: 3PA = 7.8....3ptFG% = .405
2022-23: 3PA = 9.1....3ptFG% = .377

this is a sample size of 3 years and 1286 shots. That's right, 1286 three's. Pretty solid evidence there is a correlation between his average shots/game and his conversion rate. And this was done when Dame was on the floor 75% of the team's time, absorbing the focus of opposing defenses. Ant will get a lot more defensive attention this season.

Last season, when Ant took 9 or more 3s in a game, he shot 39.5%. Better than his season average. Was much worse when he was below his "season average" in attempts per game. Is that below his previous season's %? Sure. But it's better than his season percentage. So maybe he should actually be taking more attempts per game. Maybe it gets him in a better rhythm? Who knows.

 

[wizenheimer]

First of all, I'm talking about both production and efficiency. And I'm not talking at all about the details on the inputs--just the results.

Second, I didn't say that being on the floor with Dame lowers his efficiency; just that he has, in fact, been less efficient with Dame than without him. Why that happens to be the case, you are welcome to analyze or speculate.

well, it does show Ant did better as a PG last season, but context is important.

When Ant played PG last season, he was primarily going against 2nd unit PG's as Dame sat. And if you watched the Blazers last season, it was almost an unspoken rule that when Dame sat, the other teams sat their best perimeter defenders; they wanted them resting at the same time Dame was. So it could be safe to assume that when Ant played PG he was generally going against lesser players and lesser defenders and not getting the type of attention a starting PG would normally get

as for efficiency, there really wasn't the large gap you claim. His eFG% as a PG was .560; and as a SG was .546 (his overall eFG% was .548 and mathematically I'd expect it to be a bit higher if he really did play 36% of his time at PG as 82games claims; somewhere north of .550, but I guess that's not a major discrepancy). As for his passing efficiency, which is pretty important for a PG, Simons had an assist/turnover ratio of 2.04 as a SG and 1.89 as a PG (which is pretty bad for a PG). His passing efficiency dropped as a PG. So, a slight increase in scoring efficiency offset by a drop in passing efficiency.

which brings up production and that page you referenced highlights what I've been saying and that's that the only really significant difference in production and efficiency is volume. Per/48, according to 82 games, Ant averaged 21.5 FGA as a SG, and 27.4 FGA as a PG. So, normalizing by his 35 minutes a game, he averaged 20.0 shots at a PG and 15.7 shots as a SG. Well, who the hell wouldn't have more production when getting 4.3 more shots a game at a specific position?

to Ant's credit his efficiency didn't drop when he increased his volume, but again, who was defending him at PG and who was at SG?

(by the way, the 2021-22 numbers at 82 games show pretty much the same with only minor differences)

in other words, Ant really doesn't transform into a different player when he plays PG. He just graduates to a #1 option on a bad team. The biggest changes are volume and resistance. And that leads into another set of questions. Why did Portland draft Scoot and keep Ant if Ant is better as a PG? Staring Scoot at PG essentially pushed Ant to SG just like he was playing with Dame. And many people are excited about the potential of Scoot as a pass-first PG (whatever that really means). Well, with Ant, Portland would have even more a shoot-first PG than Dame was; Ant averaged 7.0 assists/48 and 27.4 FGA; Dame averaged 9.8 assists and 27.8 FGA. That's Ant averaging an assist every 3.9 shots while Dame averaged an assist every 2.8 shots

square-peg/round-hole?....a shoot-first backup PG appears to be his best role; and, undersized starting SG appears to be his worst

 

[illmatic99]

Last season, when Ant took 9 or more 3s in a game, he shot 39.5%. Better than his season average. Was much worse when he was below his "season average" in attempts per game. Is that below his previous season's %? Sure. But it's better than his season percentage. So maybe he should actually be taking more attempts per game. Maybe it gets him in a better rhythm? Who knows.

Would also venture his off the dribble attempts have increased over the yrs as well. He was almost strictly catch and shoot earlier in his career.

 

[wizenheimer]

Last season, when Ant took 9 or more 3s in a game, he shot 39.5%. Better than his season average. Was much worse when he was below his "season average" in attempts per game. Is that below his previous season's %? Sure. But it's better than his season percentage. So maybe he should actually be taking more attempts per game. Maybe it gets him in a better rhythm? Who knows.

that could be. It also could be that when he went against better defenders they held his attempts and conversion rate down. And maybe he was smart enough to dial back his usage when he wasn't on a heater

I just think that 3 year progression of increasing attempts and decreasing efficiency is worth noting

 

[RR7]

I just think that 3 year progression of increasing attempts and decreasing efficiency is worth noting

Of course you do.

 

[wizenheimer]

Would also venture his off the dribble attempts have increased over the yrs as well. He was almost strictly catch and shoot earlier in his career.

maybe...

assisted 3ptFG rate:

2020-21: 71.0%
2021-22: 65.4%
2022-23: 68.4%

overall assisted FG rate:

2020-21: 52.4%
2021-22: 42.8%
2022-23: 46.9%

those aren't really significant differences, especially for a young player coming into his own. And it may not be a coincidence that Ant's lowest assisted FG rates in both three's and overall was the season when Dame wasn't healthy and feeding him the ball as much

 

[PtldPlatypus]

well, it does show Ant did better as a PG last season, but context is important.

When Ant played PG last season, he was primarily going against 2nd unit PG's as Dame sat. And if you watched the Blazers last season, it was almost an unspoken rule that when Dame sat, the other teams sat their best perimeter defenders; they wanted them resting at the same time Dame was. So it could be safe to assume that when Ant played PG he was generally going against lesser players and lesser defenders and not getting the type of attention a starting PG would normally get

as for efficiency, there really wasn't the large gap you claim. His eFG% as a PG was .560; and as a SG was .546 (his overall eFG% was .548 and mathematically I'd expect it to be a bit higher if he really did play 36% of his time at PG as 82games claims; somewhere north of .550, but I guess that's not a major discrepancy). As for his passing efficiency, which is pretty important for a PG, Simons had an assist/turnover ratio of 2.04 as a SG and 1.89 as a PG (which is pretty bad for a PG). His passing efficiency dropped as a PG. So, a slight increase in scoring efficiency offset by a drop in passing efficiency.

which brings up production and that page you referenced highlights what I've been saying and that's that the only really significant difference in production and efficiency is volume. Per/48, according to 82 games, Ant averaged 21.5 FGA as a SG, and 27.4 FGA as a PG. So, normalizing by his 35 minutes a game, he averaged 20.0 shots at a PG and 15.7 shots as a SG. Well, who the hell wouldn't have more production when getting 4.3 more shots a game at a specific position?

to Ant's credit his efficiency didn't drop when he increased his volume, but again, who was defending him at PG and who was at SG?

(by the way, the 2021-22 numbers at 82 games show pretty much the same with only minor differences)

in other words, Ant really doesn't transform into a different player when he plays PG. He just graduates to a #1 option on a bad team. The biggest changes are volume and resistance. And that leads into another set of questions. Why did Portland draft Scoot and keep Ant if Ant is better as a PG? Staring Scoot at PG essentially pushed Ant to SG just like he was playing with Dame. And many people are excited about the potential of Scoot as a pass-first PG (whatever that really means). Well, with Ant, Portland would have even more a shoot-first PG than Dame was; Ant averaged 7.0 assists/48 and 27.4 FGA; Dame averaged 9.8 assists and 27.8 FGA. That's Ant averaging an assist every 3.9 shots while Dame averaged an assist every 2.8 shots

square-peg/round-hole?....a shoot-first backup PG appears to be his best role; and, undersized starting SG appears to be his worst

The current roster looks to be more suited to collapse a defense rather than extend it. It's conceivable that that will be to Ant's benefit, more than playing alongside a defense-extending player like Dame

 

[wizenheimer]

Of course you do.

I'll point out that I noted that progression in direct response to somebody saying Ant could shoot 12 three's a game and hit the 40% mark. The progression seemed germane in that context, no?

 

[andalusian]

The current roster looks to be more suited to collapse a defense rather than extend it. It's conceivable that that will be to Ant's benefit, more than playing alongside a defense-extending player like Dame

Yup, dame's impact on how the blazers played can not be overstated. Given that, it makes sense to reserve judgement until we see everyone in the new roster complexion with a reasonable sample size

 

[RR7]

your snark is noted as well

I'll point out that I noted that progression in direct response to somebody saying Ant could shoot 12 three's a game and hit the 40% mark. The progression seemed germane in that context, no?

It doesn't matter the context. He's your new CJ. I've never seen anyone expend as much time and energy in to...I dunno what you'd call it, exactly. I don't want to specifically say negativity, because others will just say it's reality. But the constant and consistent need to point out flaws in anyone's positivity is quite astounding. Almost any positivity is met with some sort of a... well actually. You even did it on Wemby before the lottery! You do you.

 

[wizenheimer]

The current roster looks to be more suited to collapse a defense rather than extend it. It's conceivable that that will be to Ant's benefit, more than playing alongside a defense-extending player like Dame

sure, that's conceivable. Still, if last year's defense was extended and hedged toward Dame, I'd wonder how many more open looks Ant will get when he's the main 3pt threat for Portland

 

[illmatic99]

I'll just come out and say it.

Scoot has more inclination to playmake for others than Dame does. Ant is gonna get a ton of looks off Scoot's creation.

 

[illmatic99]

Of course you do.

Prediction: There is a very loud group of Blazer fans that will be very surprised at how impactful Ant will be this yr.

 

[wizenheimer]

It doesn't matter the context. He's your new CJ. I've never seen anyone expend as much time and energy in to...I dunno what you'd call it, exactly. I don't want to specifically say negativity, because others will just say it's reality. But the constant and consistent need to point out flaws in anyone's positivity is quite astounding. Almost any positivity is met with some sort of a... well actually. You even did it on Wemby before the lottery! You do you.

you exaggerate

there's a ton of "positivity" here than I'm not "meeting with negativity". Not on Scoot, not on Sharpe, not on Camara. I predicted 33 wins and I know there were a lot of people with lower predictions than me...are they negative?

yes, I am skeptical about Ant. I wasn't last off-season; I was even hopeful for the Dame/Ant pairing. But last season altered my opinion. Yes, I'm a little skeptical about Ayton and the baggage he brings; I'm not the only one. I'm skeptical about Williams staying healthy; not his abilities. I'm skeptical about Portland's defense and rebounding this season. I'm skeptical about Grant as a PF because of his rebounding. I'm skeptical about Billups. I'm skeptical about Jody Allen and the Vulcans. Am I the only one who has questioned those things?

if I bother you so much you should put me on ignore

 

[RR7]

LOL, even the criticism was met with a well actually.

 

[bxb]

Very encouraging showing from Simons and Grant and Camara! They were in top form. Simons sure looks confident out there.

and Shaedon Sharpe REALLY had it going for a bit too..

 

[Natebishop3]

Prediction: There is a very loud group of Blazer fans that will be very surprised at how impactful Ant will be this yr.

I think he’s gonna score a bunch of points. I’m not sure how impactful it will be though

We are gonna lose a lot of games.

 

[BassPlaya]

Caught some of the game on game night.

Grant took a minute to get engaged. He seems to end up with a good box score, but I can't point to a time during the game that I expected that outcome.
Scoot looks solid, and there is a lot of great Bball to come.
Anfernee is just what I said, the deadliest shooter on this team. His release is quicker than Dames was....and that is saying something. His D increased as well.
Camara looks tough. He has "it" as far as attitude. Effort guy.
Thank god we have Walker.....at least someone is trying to channel their Buck Williams on the boards.
Sharpe does seem to need circumstance to drive his A game. Doesn't seem to have a switch he can flip from the get go. When he does switch it.....damn.
I have been a Reath believer till this game. Could be a bad game, or it could be that I need to go hide now.