2023-24 Roster. Who stays? Who goes?

[42N8Bounce]

This is shaping up to be an active offseason for the Blazers.

Currently the Blazers have 9 players under contract:
- D Lillard
- A Simons
- J Nurkić
- S Sharpe
- N Little
- T Watford
- J Walker
- K Johnson
- J Williams

6 Players are free-agents:
- J Grant (Bird)
- J Winslow (Early Bird)
- D Eubanks (Early Bird)
- C Reddish (Restricted Bird)
- M Thybulle (Restricted Bird)
- K Knox (Team Option)

Assuming the Blazers use all 3 draft picks (big assumption), what 3 players stay, and what 3 go?





I'd look to bring back J Grant, D Eubanks, and M Thybulle.

After that, I'd be looking for trade options for moving Simons and Nurk, perhaps packaging them with draft picks to upgrade the talent. I would keep the #3 pick and use the #23 and #42 and future picks (yes, I know, depending on how the Blazers can get more flexibility with that Chicago pick).

Although I was bummed the Blazers didn't land the #1 pick, getting that #3 pick certainly opens up the options.

 

[andalusian]

I think that the Blazers, at most, have 2 rookies next year, so I am going with 4 renewals. Grant, Matisse, Winslow and Eubanks

 

[BankTeller]

I'd like to bring in a backup big like Brook Lopez and draft Derek Lively.

Nurk/Lopez/Lively

That way, we can trade out Nurk if the need ever comes and not be worried about our C rotation. The cost for Lopez? Not totally sure. He's 35.

 

[Chris Craig]

I'd like to bring in a backup big like Brook Lopez and draft Derek Lively.

Nurk/Lopez/Lively

That way, we can trade out Nurk if the need ever comes and not be worried about our C rotation. The cost for Lopez? Not totally sure. He's 35.

Is Brook a backup big? Isn't he a starter?

 

[SharpesTriumph]

I believe Knox has another season so won't be a free agent.

I'd expect we overpay for Grant. If we trade Dame, then we should be more tough with negotiations as it's more important Grants contract has trade value.

I voted Eubanks and Thybulle; but that is only if we can get them for QO and vet minimum. If they want more let them walk.

The other players are all scrubs and irrelevant, unless there is a chance we need them in a sign and trade to match salaries for another trade.

 

[BankTeller]

Is Brook a backup big? Isn't he a starter?

I mean if he wants to still be a starter at 35, that's fine. We'll have to re-assess Lopez.

But I think having Lively as a third string big and another backup C strengthens the big rotation while not having to give up assets just to get rid of Nurk.

 

[SIeepwalker]

Keep Grant and Thybulle. Wouldn't mind Knox.

 

[SharpesTriumph]

I guess for Eubanks I would give him the bi annual exception. He should ideally be about a 10th-12th roster spot situational big man. He should not be a main primary backup center that is one of the first backups off the bench. He also shouldn't fill in as a starter if we have one injury. So if he makes a million or two more than the vet minimum that's fine. But I wouldn't give him the MLE.

 

[tykendo]

It's obvious changes are coming to the starting lineup through trades, and maybe a signing. I think Ant, Nurk, Keon, and Nas will be involved in moves to facilitate trades. I'd like Skylar Mays to be brought back as a backup PG. I really liked what i saw in his abilities. I'd like the Blazers to pickup the team option on Kevin Knox. I think he can be a player that when called upon, actually will provide something. He seemed to really get in a groove with the Blazers late last season. I really like Justice Winslow. I know he hasn't stayed healthy through his career, but he provides another player near the end of the bench who can actually play . As far as free agents that can have an impact immediately , adding Brook Lopez, and Jae Crowder ( and actually play him, Hello Milwaukee) would be nice moves. I don't see either getting that 20 mil. area money again so both might be able to be had. Crowder just wants to play. I felt Phoenix really missed him, and shafted him. Milwaukee shafted him by not playing him. A lineup of Brook Lopez , Grant , Mikal Bridges , DeMar DeRozan , and Dame is pretty damn good. Bench: Sharpe , Crowder, Watford, Mays, Eubanks , Thybulle , Walker, Knox, Williams, Winslow? . rookie.

 

[Whyachi]

Knox did allright in his tank minutes.
He averaged 18 and 5 in his last 5 games.
30/11 against the Clips

Is he undersized and bad at defense? Probably, but that seems to be a reoccurring theme in Portland.

 

[Pinwheel1]

Not sure where to post this article. but here works:

https://hoopshype.com/lists/trail-b...ck-trade-possibilities-jerami-grant-and-more/

 

[PtldPlatypus]

The sad part is, I think Winslow may have had the biggest impact on winning of anyone on the team not named Damian. If I had any faith in his ability to stay healthy, he'd be my number one priority.

 

[Pinwheel1]

As far as free agents that can have an impact immediately , adding Brook Lopez, and Jae Crowder ( and actually play him, Hello Milwaukee) would be nice moves.

Wasn't Brook a runner-up for defensive player of the Year? Seems hard to imagine he can be had for our MLE.

 

[SIeepwalker]

Knox did allright in his tank minutes.
He averaged 18 and 5 in his last 5 games.
30/11 against the Clips

Is he undersized and bad at defense? Probably, but that seems to be a reoccurring theme in Portland.

Undersized ? He looks very long

 

[KingSpeed]

Where’s Mays?

 

[42N8Bounce]

Where’s Mays?

It looks like he is a free agent. Blazers have no Bird rights or exceptions to bring him back other than simply the min salary.

 

[SharpesTriumph]

The sad part is, I think Winslow may have had the biggest impact on winning of anyone on the team not named Damian. If I had any faith in his ability to stay healthy, he'd be my number one priority.

I think he had a pretty major surgery right?

Yeah if it was him just not able to get over minor stuff this year I'd consider resigning him, if we try to win with Dame and need some depth.

 

[SharpesTriumph]

It looks like he is a free agent. Blazers have no Bird rights or exceptions to bring him back other than simply the min salary.

Non bird exception is what 120%?

Blazers do have bi annual exception too right?

They have MLE but can't imagine they would use that on Mays.

 

[SharpesTriumph]

Wasn't Brook a runner-up for defensive player of the Year? Seems hard to imagine he can be had for our MLE.

Yeah I think Milwaukee at the least gives him a 1 year deal just above the full MLE.

 

[42N8Bounce]

Non bird exception is what 120%?

Blazers do have bi annual exception too right?

They have MLE but can't imagine they would use that on Mays.

Yes. The Blazers have the full MLE (~$11.4M) and BAE (~$4.4M).

The non-Bird exception is up to 175% of previous year's salary.
(edit - should say 'Early Bird' is 175%)

 

[wizenheimer]

Yes. The Blazers have the full MLE (~$11.4M) and BAE (~$4.4M).

The non-Bird exception is up to 175% of previous year's salary.

is that in the brand new CBA?

under the current CBA:



looks like 120%?

****************************************************************************************

as for the Full MLE + BAE, they can both be available but maybe not to Portland. Right now, the Blazers cap next year looks like this:

Damian Lillard $45,640,084
Anfernee Simons $24,107,143
Jusuf Nurkić $16,875,000
Shaedon Sharpe $6,313,800
Nassir Little $6,250,000
Kevin Knox $3,000,000
Keon Johnson $2,808,720
Trendon Watford $1,836,096
Jabari Walker $1,719,864
Andrew Nicholson $2,844,430
Eric Bledsoe $1,300,000
Didi Louzada $268,032

that's about 113M. However, the Blazers have a TO on Knox so they could drop to 110M

then you have to start guessing at the add-backs. Grant for 30M (hopefully that's an overestimate) puts the Blazers at 140M. The 3rd pick will cost around 9.6M, so say the Blazers are at 150M.

Then there are the 'other' free agents on the team: Reddish, Thybulle, Winslow, Eubanks. Portland will have to field a 14 man roster, and with Grant & #3 they are only at 10. My guess would be at least Eubanks plus one of Thybulle/Winslow. Could be both although having two rotation players that are terrible perimeter shooters might be excessive

so figure two of those free agents signed putting the Blazers somewhere in the 155-160M range. And that's with the Apron in the 167-169M range...which is the hard cap point if Portland uses either the Full-MLE or BAE. In other words, with a relatively static roster Portland might not have the margin to use both the MLE and BAE

of course, it's likely it won't be a static roster. My hunch is that not only is Cronin looking at ways to bring in elite talent, he's probably urgently looking at trades that send out a lot more salary then comes back. And sending out the 3rd pick, if that happens, is dropping the cap by nearly 10M before add-backs, which is a good start, cap-wise, even though possibly not a smart start, value-wise

 

[e_blazer]

I voted for the most popular 3 players: Grant, Eubanks and Thybulle. I would vote for Winslow over Matisse if he could stay healthy, but that would be a bad bet.

 

[42N8Bounce]

is that in the brand new CBA?

under the current CBA:

View attachment 55902

looks like 120%?

Good find. Interesting. Sporatic lists Winslow and Eubanks as 'Early Bird' (Not non-Bird). And NBA.com notes that 'Early Bird' allows a team to re-sign the player up to 175% of their previous salary. You're definitely more versed in salary cap than I am. I'm probably mis-reading this in some way.

 

[wizenheimer]

Good find. Interesting. Sporatic lists Winslow and Eubanks as 'Early Bird' (Not non-Bird). And NBA.com notes that 'Early Bird' allows a team to re-sign the player up to 175% of their previous salary. You're definitely more versed in salary cap than I am. I'm probably mis-reading this in some way.

sorry....I misinterpreted what you were saying. I thought you said non-Bird allowed 175% bump.

Eubanks and Winslow could very well be Early Bird. Mays wouldn't be (I question if Eubanks qualifies for early-bird, but maybe)

as for the Early-Bird max:

"A team may use the Early Bird exception to re-sign its own free agent for up to 175% of his salary in the previous season (not over the maximum salary, of course) or 105% of the average salary in the previous season3, whichever is greater"

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q25

this season, the average salary was $10,792,000. So, 105% of that would be around 11.33M.

 

[inconceivable]

Curious how would you guys rank the following players in terms of value, from best to worst

Ant, 4/100
Herro, 4/120
Poole, 4/128

 

[wizenheimer]

Curious how would you guys rank the following players in terms of value, from best to worst

Ant, 4/100
Herro, 4/120
Poole, 4/128

Herro
Ant
Poole

 

[SharpesTriumph]

is that in the brand new CBA?

under the current CBA:

View attachment 55902

looks like 120%?

****************************************************************************************

as for the Full MLE + BAE, they can both be available but maybe not to Portland. Right now, the Blazers cap next year looks like this:

Damian Lillard $45,640,084
Anfernee Simons $24,107,143
Jusuf Nurkić $16,875,000
Shaedon Sharpe $6,313,800
Nassir Little $6,250,000
Kevin Knox $3,000,000
Keon Johnson $2,808,720
Trendon Watford $1,836,096
Jabari Walker $1,719,864
Andrew Nicholson $2,844,430
Eric Bledsoe $1,300,000
Didi Louzada $268,032

that's about 113M. However, the Blazers have a TO on Knox so they could drop to 110M

then you have to start guessing at the add-backs. Grant for 30M (hopefully that's an overestimate) puts the Blazers at 140M. The 3rd pick will cost around 9.6M, so say the Blazers are at 150M.

Then there are the 'other' free agents on the team: Reddish, Thybulle, Winslow, Eubanks. Portland will have to field a 14 man roster, and with Grant & #3 they are only at 10. My guess would be at least Eubanks plus one of Thybulle/Winslow. Could be both although having two rotation players that are terrible perimeter shooters might be excessive

so figure two of those free agents signed putting the Blazers somewhere in the 155-160M range. And that's with the Apron in the 167-169M range...which is the hard cap point if Portland uses either the Full-MLE or BAE. In other words, with a relatively static roster Portland might not have the margin to use both the MLE and BAE

of course, it's likely it won't be a static roster. My hunch is that not only is Cronin looking at ways to bring in elite talent, he's probably urgently looking at trades that send out a lot more salary then comes back. And sending out the 3rd pick, if that happens, is dropping the cap by nearly 10M before add-backs, which is a good start, cap-wise, even though possibly not a smart start, value-wise

If the Blazers return Dame and try to pinch pennies ducking the tax again I'm gonna puke.

 

[Pinwheel1]

If the Blazers return Dame and try to pinch pennies ducking the tax again I'm gonna puke.

And so you should. However, if they go into the tax next season can we stop with all the posts about her pinching pennies? It makes no sense based on where we were prior to the last two seasons and how much they pay to re-sign our players. (Right or wrong)

 

[42N8Bounce]

Now that the draft is complete, here's the roster as it currently sits:



The Blazers have quite a few decisions to make in the next few days:
- M Thybulle, team option 6/29/23
- C Reddish, team option 6/29/23
- K Knox, team option 6/29/23
- J Williams, team option, 6/29/23
- J Butler, team option, 6/29/23 (2-way)
- J Badji, team option, 6/29/23 (2-way)
- K Johnson, team option 10/31/23



Then we get into the free agents that the Blazers have exceptions for:
- J Grant (Bird)
- D Eubanks (Early Bird)
- J Winslow (Early Bird)

Then decision on using the MLE/Tax-MLE and/or BAE.

Who should the Blazers keep? Who should they let go? This is shaping up to be an active summer!

 

[DDolla]

Let’s say we sign Grant, give me your starting five