2023 NBA Draft Big Board

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42N8Bounce

42N8Bounce

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Lots of threads about what the Blazers should do in the 2023 NBA Draft. In this thread I'd like to see your Big Board. Not necessarily who will be drafted by each team, but rather who you think are the best overall prospects.

Here's my Big Board:
upload_2023-6-11_12-5-13.png

My Top 14:
1. Victor Wembanyama
2. Brandon Miller
3. Ausar Thompson
4. Taylor Hendricks
5. Amen Thompson
6. Cam Whitmore
7. Scoot Henderson
8. Gradey Dick
9. Dereck Lively II
10. Brice Sensabaugh
11. Jarace Walker
12. Noah Clowney
13. Brandin Podziemsky
14. Leonard Miller

My Most Underrated (on other Big Boards):
- Brice Sensabaugh - Only 19.6 years old. He was the #6 points-per-minutes in the NCAA as a freshman. A PER of 26.4, and shot over 40% from 3.
- Noah Clowney - Only 18.9 years old. A defensive rating of 89.8, ranking him #36 in the NCAA as a freshman. Averaged 11.2 rebounds per 36.
- Brandin Podziemsky - 19.9 ppg, 8.8 rpg, 3.7 apg. He was the #5 leader in the NCAA shooting 43.5% from 3 pt. He tested at a 39.0" vertical in the pre-draft combine.

My Most Overrated (on other Big Boards):
- Anthony Black - Although I think he will be a decent prospect, most boards have him in the top 10. I have him ranked #16.
- Nick Smith, Jr - Most boards have him in the top half of the first round. PER of 13.0. Offensive rating under 100, and defensive rating over 100. Shot under 40% from 2-pt range. I know he was injured for a big part of last year. I'd put him ranked around #39
- Jalen Hood-Schifino - Most boards have him in the top half of the first round. PER of 13.0. Offensive rating under 100, and defensive rating over 100. Assist-to-turnover ratio of only 1.3 for a point guard. I'd put him ranked around #37.

Every year there are surprises. Who will be this year's second round gem, and who will be that lottery bust?
 
Last edited:
1. Wemby
2. Scoot
3. Amen
4. Ausar
5. B Miller
6. Hendricks
7. Walker
8. Whitmore
9. Coulibaly
10. Lively
11. Wallace
12. Black
13. Bufkin
14. L Miller
 
Top
1. VW
2. Miller
3. Ausar
4. Amen
5. Scoot
6. Walker
7. Hendricks
8. Whitmore
9. Wallace
10. Lively

Underrated-
Clowney
Coulibaly
Sasser
Hawkins

Overrated-
Scoot
Dick
Murray
Bufkin
Leonard Miller
 
1. Wemby
2. Miller
3. Scoot
4. Amen
5. Walker
6. Ausur
7. Whitmore
8. Hendricks
9. Black
10. Coulibaly
11. Dick
12. Lively
13. Hawkins
14, George
 
Blazers need bigs. Large players that can play defense, rebound, make smart decisions.

Roll the dice, take a chance on a young Center, maybe 2. I know the Bowie/Oden decisions came back to haunt Portland, and Meyers Leonard washed out and became an emotional basket case.

C'mon Portland! We're getting KILLED in the paint. If the Blazers aren't going to trade for Centers, then dammit, start drafting some big strong dudes.

Watford is too busy getting his spinny flippy action on to guard the rim. Jabari just stands there hopelessly clueless on defense. Eubanks is severely outmatched on multiple occasions. John Butler desperately needs a sandwich. Kevin Knox is simply not big enough to play lock down defensive Center. And of course Nurkic is on the decline as the higher salary starting C.

I say use #23 & #43 to draft very large and strong athletes to bolster the Front Line. Make it a scary bench with hackers that can say... not in my house.
 
Whyachi said:
Blazers need bigs. Large players that can play defense, rebound, make smart decisions.

C'mon Portland! We're getting KILLED in the paint.

I say use #23 & #43 to draft very large and strong athletes to bolster the Front Line. Make it a scary bench with hackers that can say... not in my house.
Click to expand...

Nnaji, Clowney, Vukcevic.
 
42N8Bounce said:
Lots of threads about what the Blazers should do in the 2023 NBA Draft. In this thread I'd like to see your Big Board. Not necessarily who will be drafted by each team, but rather who you think are the best overall prospects.

Here's my Big Board:
View attachment 56100

My Top 14:
1. Victor Wembanyama
2. Brandon Miller
3. Ausar Thompson
4. Taylor Hendricks
5. Amen Thompson
6. Cam Whitmore
7. Scoot Henderson
8. Gradey Dick
9. Dereck Lively II
10. Brice Sensabaugh
11. Jarace Walker
12. Noah Clowney
13. Brandin Podziemsky
14. Leonard Miller

My Most Underrated (on other Big Boards):
- Brice Sensabaugh - Only 19.6 years old. He was the #6 points-per-minutes in the NCAA as a freshman. A PER of 26.4, and shot over 40% from 3.
- Noah Clowney - Only 18.9 years old. A defensive rating of 89.8, ranking him #36 in the NCAA as a freshman. Averaged 11.2 rebounds per 36.
- Brandin Podziemsky - 19.9 ppg, 8.8 rpg, 3.7 apg. He was the #5 leader in the NCAA shooting 43.5% from 3 pt. He tested at a 39.0" vertical in the pre-draft combine.

My Most Overrated (on other Big Boards):
- Anthony Black - Although I think he will be a decent prospect, most boards have him in the top 10. I have him ranked #16.
- Nick Smith, Jr - Most boards have him in the top half of the first round. PER of 13.0. Offensive rating under 100, and defensive rating over 100. Shot under 40% from 2-pt range. I know he was injured for a big part of last year. I'd put him ranked around #39
- Jalen Hood-Schifino - Most boards have him in the top half of the first round. PER of 13.0. Offensive rating under 100, and defensive rating over 100. Assist-to-turnover ratio of only 1.3 for a point guard. I'd put him ranked around #37.

Every year there are surprises. Who will be this year's second round gem, and who will be that lottery bust?
Click to expand...
Apparently your "most overrated" list should include Scoot, because I guarantee NOBODY else has him as low as you.

What's your ranking system? Why so down on Anthony Black? Not a fan of defense?
 
Whyachi said:
C'mon Portland! We're getting KILLED in the paint. If the Blazers aren't going to trade for Centers, then dammit, start drafting some big strong dudes.
Click to expand...
Wrong draft. There's tall Wemby, short Scoot and then everyone else is between 6'4" and 6'8"
 
Rastapopoulos said:
Apparently your "most overrated" list should include Scoot, because I guarantee NOBODY else has him as low as you.

What's your ranking system? Why so down on Anthony Black? Not a fan of defense?
Click to expand...

I don't know if it's really 'down on Scoot' or rather just that I like the other 6 prospects better. I think Henderson comes with a lot of red-flags:
- His PER was only 13.5. That's below average for the G-League.
- 3.5 turnovers and 3.3 fouls per game.
- Not only did he shoot 27.5% 3 pointers in the G-League regular season, he also only shot 46.5% for 2 pointers. That's not good efficiency.
- For being a point guard that facilitates scoring, he only had a 98 offensive rating. Combine that with a 122 defensive rating, one of the worst in the G-League.
- His G-League team only went 11-21, even though he has some solid talent on the team, including Leonard Miller.

As for Anthony Black, yeah, meh. You ask about my ranking system. I try to focus on production on the floor and discount 'potential' as much as possible.
- His PER was only 17.2.
- His shooting is not good. 30.1% from 3.
- Some people refer to him as a point guard, but he only had 3.9 assists to 3.0 turnovers (1.3 a/t)
- As for his defense, he only tested out with a 6'7.5" wingspan, and only had a 96.9 defensive rating.
I don't see a bad prospect there. Just not overwhelmed and don't think he's a lottery level talent.
 
Rastapopoulos said:
What's your ranking system?
Click to expand...

One technique I do like to use to evaluate college players is to modify their stats using different factors.

I start with PER.
- I adjust for age (for example x1.25 if they are 19 years old, or x0.75 if they are 23 years old).
- I adjust for Strength of Schedule.
- I adjust for Win-Loss of their team (factoring in how many minutes they played each game).
- I adjust for Defensive rating (PER is a bit limited measuring defense).

Using those criteria, here are the players that had the best stats in college last year:
- Brice Sensabaugh
- Noah Clowney
- Brandon Miller
- Gradey Dick
- Jarace Walker
- Brandin Podziemski
- Adam Sanogo
- Azuoles Tubellis
- Cam Whitmore
- Dereck Lively II
- Taylor Hendricks
- Kobe Bufkin
- Anthony Black
- Amari Bailey

This year is a bit unique in that many of the top players did not play college ball, so it's a bit difficult to compare the stats when it's not apples-to-apples.

I recognize stats don't tell the whole story. I also understand that these rankings can be modified just by changing the adjustment factors for each of the noted factors above. I've tried to tweak those factors over the years to line up with the best NBA results.

The stats can tell some of the story. The tough part of the evaluation is quantifying the intangibles.
 
42N8Bounce said:
One technique I do like to use to evaluate college players is to modify their stats using different factors.

I start with PER.
- I adjust for age (for example x1.25 if they are 19 years old, or x0.75 if they are 23 years old).
- I adjust for Strength of Schedule.
- I adjust for Win-Loss of their team (factoring in how many minutes they played each game).
- I adjust for Defensive rating (PER is a bit limited measuring defense).

Using those criteria, here are the players that had the best stats in college last year:
- Brice Sensabaugh
- Noah Clowney
- Brandon Miller
- Gradey Dick
- Jarace Walker
- Brandin Podziemski
- Adam Sanogo
- Azuoles Tubellis
- Cam Whitmore
- Dereck Lively II
- Taylor Hendricks
- Kobe Bufkin
- Anthony Black
- Amari Bailey

This year is a bit unique in that many of the top players did not play college ball, so it's a bit difficult to compare the stats when it's not apples-to-apples.

I recognize stats don't tell the whole story. I also understand that these rankings can be modified just by changing the adjustment factors for each of the noted factors above. I've tried to tweak those factors over the years to line up with the best NBA results.

The stats can tell some of the story. The tough part of the evaluation is quantifying the intangibles.
Click to expand...
Can you give your top 10 for the last 2 years?
Im interested to see how your system grades out in the NBA
 
CJ_is_Gone said:
Can you give your top 10 for the last 2 years?
Im interested to see how your system grades out in the NBA
Click to expand...
Here's 2022:
- Chet Holmgren
- Jalen Duren
- Jabari Smith
- Mark Williams
- Walker Kessler
- Tari Eason
- Paolo Banchero
- Jeremy Sochan
- Johnny Davis
- Kennedy Chandler
- Keegan Murray

Here's 2021:
- Evan Mobley
- Franz Wagner
- Isaiah Jackson
- Jaden Springer
- Cade Cunningham
- Jalen Suggs
- Cam Thomas
- Filip Petrusev
- Charles Bassey
- Moses Moody
- Scottie Barnes

It's a bit of a balancing act with the stats and adjustment factors over the years. When it looks like there's too much weight on youth one year, it throws off another year.

But again, the stats don't tell the full story. It's a bit of the 'Money Ball' idea. Scouts often get enamored with potential, and sometimes miss out on the obvious production value.
 
42N8Bounce said:
Here's 2022:
- Chet Holmgren
- Jalen Duren
- Jabari Smith
- Mark Williams
- Walker Kessler
- Tari Eason
- Paolo Banchero
- Jeremy Sochan
- Johnny Davis
- Kennedy Chandler
- Keegan Murray

Here's 2021:
- Evan Mobley
- Franz Wagner
- Isaiah Jackson
- Jaden Springer
- Cade Cunningham
- Jalen Suggs
- Cam Thomas
- Filip Petrusev
- Charles Bassey
- Moses Moody
- Scottie Barnes

It's a bit of a balancing act with the stats and adjustment factors over the years. When it looks like there's too much weight on youth one year, it throws off another year.

But again, the stats don't tell the full story. It's a bit of the 'Money Ball' idea. Scouts often get enamored with potential, and sometimes miss out on the obvious production value.
Click to expand...
I like your lists. I think you probably have a better track record than most.
 
My Top 12:
1. Victor Wembanyama
2. Brandon Miller
3. Amen Thompson
4. Scoot Henderson
5. Jarace Walker
6. Cam Whitmore
7. Ausar Thompson
8. Taylor Hendricks
9.. Tony Black
10. Gradey Dick
11. Dereck Lively II
12. Brice Sensabaugh
 
Who'd trade the #3 for Chet Holmgren? I'm kinda thinking I would. But I don't think OKC would be interested.
 
Rastapopoulos said:
Who'd trade the #3 for Chet Holmgren? I'm kinda thinking I would. But I don't think OKC would be interested.
Click to expand...
If we knew he could stay healthy, i would do it. But Feet problems never totally go away. Especially one's that require surgery.
 
42N8Bounce said:
I don't know if it's really 'down on Scoot' or rather just that I like the other 6 prospects better. I think Henderson comes with a lot of red-flags:
- His PER was only 13.5. That's below average for the G-League.
- 3.5 turnovers and 3.3 fouls per game.
- Not only did he shoot 27.5% 3 pointers in the G-League regular season, he also only shot 46.5% for 2 pointers. That's not good efficiency.
- For being a point guard that facilitates scoring, he only had a 98 offensive rating. Combine that with a 122 defensive rating, one of the worst in the G-League.
- His G-League team only went 11-21, even though he has some solid talent on the team, including Leonard Miller.
Click to expand...

I think your trying to evaluate Scoot with GLeague stats as if his team was trying to win games. Thats not the point of the Ignite. Would you evaluate Globetrotter stats?

I'd rank Scoot #2 although the same tier as Miller. I'd be super happy with either.

Ausar the other guy I like in the top7 although more I just enjoy his game and I'm a fan of his than strongly believing he's a better prospect than the others. There's a big dropoff after the top7.
 
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