2024 Blazers draft - Should we select BPA or fit?

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Should the Blazers draft BPA or fit?

  • Total voters
    43
  • Poll closed .
Tier 1: Sarr
Tier 2: Risachere/Williams/Topic
Tier 3: Buzelis/Holland/Salaun?
 
Pinwheel1 said:
Just because there aren't any "no-brainers" does not mean the draft is weak
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I think you have to use a lot more of your brain this year than last year. Like for example, I'd probably trade our pick for Jarace Walker (as an example) because I like him a tick more than the guys we're discussing in here—and Jarace went 8!
 
wizenheimer said:
I'm beginning to wonder if the "this draft class sucks" narrative is becoming like so many internet narratives and that's simply it's repeated so often it becomes a 'fact' even though it might be false
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I challenge you to watch tape of the top 6 guys being discussed and look at their game logs—Cody, Sarr, Topic, Risacher and let's say Matas—and pit them up against a recent year's draft.

I'm telling you, at the top they're all dented cans of vegetables. It's a matter of where the dents are.

The groupthink part of this is that I think this is a normal draft past 10-12 or so.
 
Samuel said:
I challenge you to watch tape of the top 6 guys being discussed and look at their game logs—Cody, Sarr, Topic, Risacher and let's say Matas—and pit them up against a recent year's draft.

I'm telling you, at the top they're all dented cans of vegetables. It's a matter of where the dents are.

The groupthink part of this is that I think this is a normal draft past 10-12 or so.
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Not sure if you saw a post I made on here a few days ago or if you have me blocked because I’m such a detriment the enjoyment of this site….. but 2 different podcasts I heard talking about the 24 draft said that Cam Whitmore would be the #1 pick this year had he stayed in……ouch.
 
THE HCP said:
Not sure if you saw a post I made on here a few days ago or if you have me blocked because I’m such a detriment the enjoyment of this site….. but 2 different podcasts I heard talking about the 24 draft said that Cam Whitmore would be the #1 pick this year had he stayed in……ouch.
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I'll go you one more—GG Jackson (pick 45)
 
There is a reason Doncic went 3rd in the 2018 draft behind Ayton and Bagley. Teams, fans, podcasters, etc don't have the same knowledge about the young international players. This year's mocks often have the top 3 projected picks to be international players. Granted there is no unicorn in this draft, but I question whether or not anyone knows what the fuck they are talking about until they get these players in for a workout. They could be much better than we think.....or worse.
 
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THE HCP said:
Not sure if you saw a post I made on here a few days ago or if you have me blocked because I’m such a detriment the enjoyment of this site….. but 2 different podcasts I heard talking about the 24 draft said that Cam Whitmore would be the #1 pick this year had he stayed in……ouch.
Click to expand...

Because it came from a podcast it must be real...

In no world would Whitmore be picked over Sarr.
 
Pinwheel1 said:
There is a reason Doncic went 3rd in the 2018 draft behind Ayton and Bagley. Teams, fans, podcasters, etc don't have the same knowledge about the young international players. This year's mocks often have the top 3 projected picks to be international players. Granted there is no unicorn in this draft, but I question whether or not anyone knows what the fuck they are talking about until they get these players in for a workout. They could be much better than we think.....or worse.
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Everyone is just repeating what a handful of "experts" say. There will be stars.
 
Pinwheel1 said:
There is a reason Doncic went 3rd in the 2018 draft behind Ayton and Bagley. Teams, fans, podcasters, etc don't have the same knowledge about the young international players. This year's mocks often have the top 3 projected picks to be international players. Granted there is no unicorn in this draft, but I question whether or not anyone knows what the fuck they are talking about until they get these players in for a workout. They could be much better than we think.....or worse.
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just because a guy is an international doesn't make him luka. there are tons of eyeballs on the international leagues now looking for the next star.

and I say that as someone who likes topic.
 
Samuel said:
just because a guy is an international doesn't make him luka. there are tons of eyeballs on the international leagues now looking for the next star.

and I say that as someone who likes topic.
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So you think they have more eyeballs now? I think the Blazers might have more now, but until recently they had much fewer eyeballs on international players than they did 30 years ago. You have to wonder why one of the best players in the world went 41st 10 years ago.
 
Who's the Jaime Jaquez of this draft - that is, not especially athletic, seasoned several-years-college guy who has a very good all-around game, who'll drop because his ceiling is supposed to be low? (Jalen Brunson is the recent king of this.)
My nominee: Zach Edey. I think his floor is probably Boban (without the superstar personality, of course) but one can dream of a Yao Ming/Mark Eaton combo.
 
Pinwheel1 said:
There is a reason Doncic went 3rd in the 2018 draft behind Ayton and Bagley. Teams, fans, podcasters, etc don't have the same knowledge about the young international players.
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No, the reason Luka didn't go #1 is because the Suns were scared they couldn't get him to work with Booker and Vlade almost certainly had some residual bad feelings from the 90s Balkan wars. It was pretty much common knowledge that he was going to be special - Vlade was blasted at the time.

(Of course, that doesn't let Atlanta off the hook. It never ceases to amaze me that some front offices can act dumber than me. I can only assume that it's a meddling owner in 99% of cases. Maybe they thought Atlanta wouldn't take kindly to a chubby white boy.)
 
AmirIcon said:
Because it came from a podcast it must be real...

In no world would Whitmore be picked over Sarr.
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What if I told you I asked 3 NBA scouts in town this past week and two agreed and 1 said top 3. I’ll wait for a smart remark son.
 
AmirIcon said:
Everyone is just repeating what a handful of "experts" say. There will be stars.
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I see that you are kinda new around here, so let me fill you in on something…..I’m not like the self anointed EXPERTS on here who claim to know shit or claim to have INSIDE connections……. But son, I ACTUALLY do have them. I heard a couple different national media guys whose opinions I respect say something….. so I went and asked 3 ACTUAL NBA experts who probably have a combined total of 70 years of experience in the league as scouts, coaches and front office work, what they thought about it, then I shared it on here. Your corny ass comes in side bustin’ on me for my opinion for no reason whatsoever. Put me on ignore, hate me, crack on me, do what you want, but I purposely DON’T share shit on here for a reason…..when I do….don’t hate…..let it marinate……. I MIGHT know what I speak on.
 
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THE HCP said:
I see that you are kinda new around here, so let me fill you in on something…..I’m not like the self anointed EXPERTS on here who claim to know shit or claim to have INSIDE connections……. But son, I ACTUALLY do have them. I heard a couple different national media guys whose opinions I respect say something….. so I went and asked 3 ACTUAL NBA experts who probably have a combined total of 70 years of experience in the league as scouts, coaches and front office work, what they thought about it, then I shared it on here. Your corny ass comes in side bustin’ on me for my opinion for no reason whatsoever. Put me on ignore, hate me, crack on me, do what you want, but I purposely DON’T share shit on here for a reason…..when I do….don’t hate…..let it marinate……. I MIGHT know what I speak on.
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Why didn't any team of this year's lotto teams trade a 24 unprotected for one of those later picks(15-20) to grab Whitmore? You think if San Antonio would've offered a 2024 unprotected for the 19th pick, do you think it would've been rejected? Of course it wouldn't have. So all the credit you give to these scouts, they didn't predict at the time that Whitmore would be worth more than a unprotected lotto pick in the 2024 draft. Why do you have so much confidence in their opinion?
 
Lot of responses in this thread that have me wanting to chime in with my thoughts.

- This draft will have multiple All-Stars in it and isn't as bad as people say. Most drafts have 5+ All Stars. It's incredibly rare for a draft to have less than that. And in today's day and age, international talent really drives up the stock for what would be a bad draft. For reference, just about every draft since Giannis has produced one international All-Star. This wasn't the case in the 1980s-2000s.

- Backcourts rarely win it all (Curry and Klay being the exception). Every championship squad since 2008 has featured good players (usually All-Stars) at the 3 and 4. Repeating Dame/CJ and even Drexler/Porter will not help Portland's chances.

- "BPA" doesn't mean much when you're only measuring how good players are now, as 19-22 year olds. In that sense, you draft for a combination of BPA, potential, and fit with more emphasis on the former two. Imo, a more accurate measure would be to look at what player archetypes work in NBA history and to select on that criteria, utilizing as much 'checkboxing' as possible to compliment the eye test so that you can accurately compare the player to an archetype that works.

- Think Cody Williams fits the well-rounded ball handling wing archetype that can play on both ends. Those players are incredibly rare and tend to perform very well in the NBA. At worst, you tend to get a De'Andre Hunter, Trevor Ariza, or Nic Batum type player. At best, he becomes a Jimmy Butler type player. Imo, a more realistic case is that he ends up as a more impactful Jerami Grant due to him being able to play off ball more and due to his efficiency. Again, to reiterate how rare his talent is, few wings score 14ppg (18ppg per 40 mins) as freshmen, especially on such efficient numbers. In that sense, he fits BPA and best fit label for the Blazers.

Compliments Shaedon's game well, imo. The MJ/Kobe/Wade archetype....you want to give them a well rounded wing (Pippen/Odom/Lebron).

- Risacher is also similar but less talented of a ball handler. Still, his ball handling appears to be superior to Jabari Smith Jr, who is more like a Rashard Lewis. This is why I expect something like a more athletic Glen Rice than a Rashard Lewis like Jabari kind of plays like. Fit but not BPA.

- Topic cannot shoot or defend as well as I'd like. Still has some star potential but he's neither fit nor BPA. More of a shooting guard or combo guard in the NBA than a wing.

- Not surprised some are low on Sarr and am glad to see that view confirmed by scouts. I don't know about Cam Whitmore being Top 3 in 2024 but yeah, I would rate him as a better prospect than Sarr.

- Zach Edey is definitely someone Portland should give thought to in the first round. Not only does he pass the eye test, in terms of his skills and good basketball hands, to the point that he does remind me of Yao and Jokic....but he also shoots well enough at the free throw line and is rumored to have a three point shot in his arsenal that Purdue won't let him utilize. His level of efficiency is the best in recorded NCAA history (also owns the #3 spot behind Zion). Players who were in his position as the star on a good Division I program (meaning he had to share the ball with talented teammates) that can achieve such a historically high level of PER can be listed on one hand - Zion, Keegan Murray, John Collins, Brandon Clarke, Kelly Olynyk.

That's either a good NBA starter (Murray, Collins) or a player in contention for Sixth Man of the Year (Olynyk, Clarke). Essentially, being in that company likely makes Edey a good back up big who can probably put up good numbers due to his efficiency. It'd be smart to draft him to replace Robert Williams III and to utilize as a potential stopgap center should Ayton want out. If he blossoms into something more, which I think is entirely possible, great.
 
Right now, you go best forward available unless there's a guard that you think is the BPA that's much better than what you have. I don't think that exists in this draft, so it shouldn't be an issue.

You've got three very young Gs right now, two of whom are around 20 and might have all-NBA talent. It makes sense to continue to see if they do and draft size and length to put with them at this point.

Hypothetically, if this draft was rich in guards, then you'd look to trade down where you'd get a forward at the appropriate value.

CLARIFICATION: This is speaking for the first pick and perhaps the first two picks, depending where GS ends up. I think the 2R is where it's fine to look for a solid backup guard who can be a spot starter and just generally give you consistently good minutes off the bench without killing your momentum.
 
MrDraftGuy said:
Lot of responses in this thread that have me wanting to chime in with my thoughts.

- This draft will have multiple All-Stars in it and isn't as bad as people say. Most drafts have 5+ All Stars. It's incredibly rare for a draft to have less than that. And in today's day and age, international talent really drives up the stock for what would be a bad draft. For reference, just about every draft since Giannis has produced one international All-Star. This wasn't the case in the 1980s-2000s.

- Backcourts rarely win it all (Curry and Klay being the exception). Every championship squad since 2008 has featured good players (usually All-Stars) at the 3 and 4. Repeating Dame/CJ and even Drexler/Porter will not help Portland's chances.

- "BPA" doesn't mean much when you're only measuring how good players are now, as 19-22 year olds. In that sense, you draft for a combination of BPA, potential, and fit with more emphasis on the former two. Imo, a more accurate measure would be to look at what player archetypes work in NBA history and to select on that criteria, utilizing as much 'checkboxing' as possible to compliment the eye test so that you can accurately compare the player to an archetype that works.

- Think Cody Williams fits the well-rounded ball handling wing archetype that can play on both ends. Those players are incredibly rare and tend to perform very well in the NBA. At worst, you tend to get a De'Andre Hunter, Trevor Ariza, or Nic Batum type player. At best, he becomes a Jimmy Butler type player. Imo, a more realistic case is that he ends up as a more impactful Jerami Grant due to him being able to play off ball more and due to his efficiency. Again, to reiterate how rare his talent is, few wings score 14ppg (18ppg per 40 mins) as freshmen, especially on such efficient numbers. In that sense, he fits BPA and best fit label for the Blazers.

Compliments Shaedon's game well, imo. The MJ/Kobe/Wade archetype....you want to give them a well rounded wing (Pippen/Odom/Lebron).

- Risacher is also similar but less talented of a ball handler. Still, his ball handling appears to be superior to Jabari Smith Jr, who is more like a Rashard Lewis. This is why I expect something like a more athletic Glen Rice than a Rashard Lewis like Jabari kind of plays like. Fit but not BPA.

- Topic cannot shoot or defend as well as I'd like. Still has some star potential but he's neither fit nor BPA. More of a shooting guard or combo guard in the NBA than a wing.

- Not surprised some are low on Sarr and am glad to see that view confirmed by scouts. I don't know about Cam Whitmore being Top 3 in 2024 but yeah, I would rate him as a better prospect than Sarr.

- Zach Edey is definitely someone Portland should give thought to in the first round. Not only does he pass the eye test, in terms of his skills and good basketball hands, to the point that he does remind me of Yao and Jokic....but he also shoots well enough at the free throw line and is rumored to have a three point shot in his arsenal that Purdue won't let him utilize. His level of efficiency is the best in recorded NCAA history (also owns the #3 spot behind Zion). Players who were in his position as the star on a good Division I program (meaning he had to share the ball with talented teammates) that can achieve such a historically high level of PER can be listed on one hand - Zion, Keegan Murray, John Collins, Brandon Clarke, Kelly Olynyk.

That's either a good NBA starter (Murray, Collins) or a player in contention for Sixth Man of the Year (Olynyk, Clarke). Essentially, being in that company likely makes Edey a good back up big who can probably put up good numbers due to his efficiency. It'd be smart to draft him to replace Robert Williams III and to utilize as a potential stopgap center should Ayton want out. If he blossoms into something more, which I think is entirely possible, great.
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If we don't get Cody Wiliams, do you like anyone else in top five?
 
Paine Tablet said:
Why didn't any team of this year's lotto teams trade a 24 unprotected for one of those later picks(15-20) to grab Whitmore? You think if San Antonio would've offered a 2024 unprotected for the 19th pick, do you think it would've been rejected? Of course it wouldn't have. So all the credit you give to these scouts, they didn't predict at the time that Whitmore would be worth more than a unprotected lotto pick in the 2024 draft. Why do you have so much confidence in their opinion?
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I wonder how many teams this year who land in the top 3 after the lottery is determined will offer Houston their pick for Whitmore? Would any of you if Portland landed in the top 3?
 
Blazers have to get Dalton Kenecdt. That dude reminds me of Luca. He is racing up the draft boards. No way does he last until the Golden State pic. Teams like Oklahoma City will grab him in a second if he’s available. I am almost thinking that if Sarr is not available, get him.
 
Time and time again we see teams including the Blazers pick a position of need. How many times has that backfired?
You bring in as many as you can and check them out thoroughly. Then when it’s your time to pick you pick the wrong one anyway.
#keepontankin
 
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