2024 NBA Draft Thread

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The "Way too Early' Draft prognostication

  • Holland

    Votes: 8 16.3%

  • Sarr

    Votes: 41 83.7%

  • Edwards

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Total voters
    49

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SharpesTriumph said:
Fuck no. I'd be ecstatic if we trade Dame away and make the playoffs.

Look, I'm all for doing a long term rebuild and expecting most likely we will have a poor record the next few years without the playoffs. I'm ok with that route and think the team should go down that path while collecting as many assets as possible to eventually try to flip this thing to win in ~3-5 years or something.

But if Scoot/Sharpe/Ant/etc have huge break out years starting in a few months, and prove to be legit stud NBA players right away that is MUCH better than getting any draft pick.

Were talking about 3 players we have locked up being way better, possibly being allstars, vs the chance of maybe getting one player that could be a bit better while we know our 3 players aren't good enough to get it done.

Having a good pick in next years draft is a benefit and would add talent, but that is not the best outcome we can hope for. I expect this playoff idea is a very unlikely longshot, thus I never really discuss it, but it would be far better that Scoot is leading us to wins than not.
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This is where it gets interesting. Is making the playoffs as an also ran better than potentially adding a final piece at a forward position?
 
PtldPlatypus said:
Honestly, I was thinking that question could be another thread. Like, I understand that we're supposed to "build through the draft," but if we already have our future franchise cornerstones (maybe we do, maybe we don't) in Scoot and Sharpe, then how much more top-end talent do we really need to draft in order to build a contender? Would it really be so bad if we got sufficient production from the youngsters/role players we receive in a Dame deal that we become a play-in team being led by 19/20 year olds?
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The issue is we aren't really sure how good Scoot/Sharpe and to an extent even Ant will be in their primes. Certainly possible one or more flops or has injuries or something. In that case we need more top end talent in the draft.

I wouldn't aim for role players or mediocre starters in a Dame trade - outside the value they have to eventually flip to a 3rd team. Post Dame the Blazers are just to far away with too many unknowns. If we get a good young player or ideally a Scottie Barnes type with big upside yeah thats great. If not we need to prioritize picks. Picks can help if the Blazers later do still need to add some top end talent, if they need to add the final role players, or if we end up close to the luxury tax and just need backups on cheap contracts. We don't need those role players production now so its better to get an asset such as pick that can be flipped for precisely what is needed at a later time when we better learn what that exact need is.
 
Mediocre Man said:
This is where it gets interesting. Is making the playoffs as an also ran better than potentially adding a final piece at a forward position?
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Do you mean getting a forward via the lottery next year? So far there does not look like a lot of options, which means every team who needs a forward will be going after the one who rises during the season. Granted someone always does come out of nowhere, but they often need time to develop. I would rather make the playoffs next year to give us some hope.
 
SharpesTriumph said:
Fuck no. I'd be ecstatic if we trade Dame away and make the playoffs.

Look, I'm all for doing a long term rebuild and expecting most likely we will have a poor record the next few years without the playoffs. I'm ok with that route and think the team should go down that path while collecting as many assets as possible to eventually try to flip this thing to win in ~3-5 years or something.

But if Scoot/Sharpe/Ant/etc have huge break out years starting in a few months, and prove to be legit stud NBA players right away that is MUCH better than getting any draft pick.

Were talking about 3 players we have locked up being way better, possibly being allstars, vs the chance of maybe getting one player that could be a bit better while we know our 3 players aren't good enough to get it done.

Having a good pick in next years draft is a benefit and would add talent, but that is not the best outcome we can hope for. I expect this playoff idea is a very unlikely longshot, thus I never really discuss it, but it would be far better that Scoot is leading us to wins than not.
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If anything, I actually think making the playoffs with a Scoot and Shaedon tandem year 1 would be the best thing for this team. Even if they aren’t the best players right away, we’re going to remember this as their first run as a backcourt. FWIW, Dame and CJ having that surprise run in year 1 post-LA propelled us to several straight years in the playoffs.

This time around, losing our 1st doesn’t hurt us as much as the one in the Affalo trade. If we made a playoff run, one or many of these things would have happened for us to get to that point:

1) Scoot is amazing right away, let’s say he replicates Ja’s rookie year
2) Shaedon has a huge leap, no gauge on realistic expectations for him right now for me
3) Ant explodes without Dame on the roster, and his stats/efficiency are similar to his stretch starting without Dame last year
4) Grant is a 22+ppg scorer on good efficiency
5) etc.

Any of these contributions would be welcomed. When LA left, we literally almost had nothing outside of the backcourt. This time around, we still have pieces on this roster that we know will not be long term pieces for our future (Ant, Grant). Winning only bolsters their value. I will be rooting for wins, but won’t be heartbroken with the losses.
 
Despite the "weakness" of the draft there appears to be some good height in the lotto.
 
BankTeller said:
If anything, I actually think making the playoffs with a Scoot and Shaedon tandem year 1 would be the best thing for this team. Even if they aren’t the best players right away, we’re going to remember this as their first run as a backcourt. FWIW, Dame and CJ having that surprise run in year 1 post-LA propelled us to several straight years in the playoffs.

This time around, losing our 1st doesn’t hurt us as much as the one in the Affalo trade. If we made a playoff run, one or many of these things would have happened for us to get to that point:

1) Scoot is amazing right away, let’s say he replicates Ja’s rookie year
2) Shaedon has a huge leap, no gauge on realistic expectations for him right now for me
3) Ant explodes without Dame on the roster, and his stats/efficiency are similar to his stretch starting without Dame last year
4) Grant is a 22+ppg scorer on good efficiency
5) etc.

Any of these contributions would be welcomed. When LA left, we literally almost had nothing outside of the backcourt. This time around, we still have pieces on this roster that we know will not be long term pieces for our future (Ant, Grant). Winning only bolsters their value. I will be rooting for wins, but won’t be heartbroken with the losses.
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Even if the top 4 happen we are still going to be a very high (top 4) lottery team. after the top 4 we have nothing that wins us consistent games in the NBA. I am assuming they trade Dame before the season starts.
 
Mediocre Man said:
This is where it gets interesting. Is making the playoffs as an also ran better than potentially adding a final piece at a forward position?
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YES.
You're talking about the 15th pick or worse. That can be acquired in a trade.
Also, there's no reason the "final piece" has to be a 2024 draft pick.

Edit: The Blazers drafted two forwards in the 2023 draft.
 
Players ask for trades. Dame's trade request is a dead end.
He may never be traded, or not traded during the entire 2023-24 season.
There are too many variables to answer vague questions about the future.

What if Dame stays and Simons is traded?
 
I found someone new that I don’t think has been mentioned yet.



Age: 18 (19 on 06/07/24)
Height: 6’10 (shoes or barefoot not indicated)
Wingspan: 7’1
Weight: 210lbs
NBA Comparison: Pau Gasol

No idea where he could land in the draft. If it’s true that it is a weak overall draft, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him as a lock in the top 10.

Sneaky athletic. Currently, he isn’t a shooter. But he can play on the perimeter has a pretty polished post game. He can catch the ball in the post or dribble into one—he is going to dominate anyone smaller than him down there. At only 18, I would say he is just as good as Watford is in the post, only he’s much more athletic and is a threat to throw it down. There is a lot of resemblance to Pau, but I think Izan will be asked to play further from the basket than Pau was ever asked to in his earlier years. With shooting now required to be effective in the league, I think he will get to a point where he is Pau+ on offense, and much more switchable on defense.

Insticts-wise, he has good BB-IQ and makes the right pass. He also has really good touch around around the basket. As the video says, Izan is a 95% chance to roll than pop, but I think he’s so good at scoring around the basket than it won’t be a problem. When he puts on more weight and is a threat to shoot, I can see Scoot and Izan becoming a top PnR combo in the league.

Defensively, he has shown flashes of being a very good rim protector. There’s hope that he is agile enough to actually switch effectively.

Right now, my favorite prospect so far in this class. I like him more as a prospect than some guys I’ve seen recently like Jabari Smith, Jarace Walker, Hendricks, Kuminga. I think that with his attributes and play style, he could develop into either our starting PF next to a really good defensive C, or our C and anchor our defense behind two perimeter forwards.

Right now, he’s playing at PF next to Aday Mara. The key to him playing PF would be his effectiveness switching on defense. If he could do that effectively, I love the idea of finding a dominate defensive C to pair with him and Shae/Scoot. If he proves to be a better rim protector, I want to find the two best 3-D forwards.
 
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Another player I'll be keeping my eye on, Alex Sarr.



 
DUB said:
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Very interesting player. Suddenly, this becomes a huge draft for us given how many bigs there are in next year’s draft.

So far, Bradshaw, Clingan, and Almansa have been impressive to me. Add this guy to the list.
 
I've been watching what footage I can. It's definitely not a good draft but that doesn't mean there won't be All-Stars or good quality players who can start someday. If last year was wings/forwards, there seems to be a good amount of big men in this draft. No superstar big man but maybe guys who can be like Marc Gasol/Jusuf Nurkic/Tyson Chandler.

Here are my estimations based on their current levels (09/23).

Matas Buzelis - Chandler Parsons+Tre Murphy III w/ potential to be like Gordon Hayward+Rashard Lewis.

His recent showings weren't that good but he still has an entire year to prove himself. Don't expect Franz Wagner, essentially. Instead, expect a guy who can be 16/5/4 at his prime, especially on a good team. If needed and if he develops his playmaking/ball handling, he may be able to get 20/5/5 on a good team at his peak.

Stephon Castle - Joe Johnson+Evan Fournier

Maybe this makes him Manu Ginobili-esque? I don't know if Portland needs this considering it has Sharpe. I think this is what the Hornets or Magic need.

Aday Mara - Marc Gasol+Brook Lopez

Just a good player, in general. I don't know that I see superstar written on him but his footwork and well rounded skillset should make him a good center on a contending team just like the player comps I listed above.

Isiah Collier - Kyrie Irving+Stephon Marbury

His offense likely isn't as good as the guys I compared him to but he should be the top PG in the draft. I've pointed it out before but the majority of top point guards (not combo guards) drafted since 2005 have turned out to be All-Stars. Something like 15 out of 18 or whatever. I'd expect the same here and for him to go Top 3. Probably the only guy in the lottery with potential to be a perennial All-Star

Alexandre Sarr - Emeka Okafor with more skills (ex. jumpshot range, passing)

His lack of elite footwork and shot creation means he'll be limited like Okafor was. Maybe this will make him DeAndre Ayton-esque but I don't see anything to suggest he is as talented of a prospect as Ayton. Some say he moves more like a wing/forward so maybe that can be his niche? Even then, again, shot creation is limited and he isn't noted to be a strong rebounder.

Donovan Clingan - Tyson Chandler+Brad Daughterty

I think Clingan can be what Duren and Kessler were, in this draft. By that, they'll fall out of the Top 10 but be considered steals. Don't think he'll be as good of a defender/shot blocker as Kessler and Duren can be. Not as athletic and mobile, either. But he'll be very serviceable. Really like how fluid he can be while moving, often knowing to keep his hands up for a rebound or when attacking.


Also, I still think Zach Edey can be a stud. Don't be surprised that, in a weak draft, the best player may be a guy taken outside the lottery. Not saying that'll be Edey but he has some unique skills and efficiency levels that I like.

Zach Edey - Yao Ming.

Now, obviously, I don't know if he reaches Yao level but I think he has the size, the build, the gait, the moves, and the hand-eye coordination that makes him similar to Yao Ming. Imagine Nurkic before he got hurt but more difficult to guard due to his height and wingspan. Less skilled passer and less mobile but better efficiency due to his height and wingspan.

If Portland comes out of this draft with Buzelis AND Edey/Clingan, I'd consider it a massive win that will boost Sharpe and Scoot's chances at winning a ring.
 
SharpesTriumph said:
But if Scoot/Sharpe/Ant/etc have huge break out years starting in a few months, and prove to be legit stud NBA players right away that is MUCH better than getting any draft pick.

Were talking about 3 players we have locked up being way better, possibly being allstars, vs the chance of maybe getting one player that could be a bit better while we know our 3 players aren't good enough to get it done.
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With all due respect, you do not want this. Not that it's likely to happen anyway considering how packed the West is.

The reason I say this, though, is because the majority of championship teams are composed of one superstar who can legitimately contend for MVP surrounded by three All-Stars or borderline All-Stars. The team should have some depth and 3/5 starters should play defense.

Ex: Giannis-Jrue-Khris-Lopez///Jokic-Gordon-Murray-MPJ///Curry-Klay-Draymond-Wiggins or Barnes or KD///Kawhi-Lowry-Siakam-Gasol///Lebron-Kyrie-Love-Smith (his last good year, showed up in 2016 Finals)///Kawhi-Parker-Duncan-Manu///Lebron-Wade-Bosh-Ray///Dirk-Marion-Terry-Kidd (or Chandler, if you considered 2011 Kidd to be lesser).....previous eras - Dr. J-Moses-Cheeks-Toney or Jones///Isiah-Rodman-Lambier-Dumars///Hakeem-Vernon or Drexler-Cassell-Kenny or Otis///MJ-Pippen-Rodman or Grant-Armstrong or Kukoc/// Magic and Bird's teams

Exceptions occur usually with two MVP caliber superstars who are assisted with a third All-Star or borderline All-Star.

Ex. Shaq-Kobe-Rice///Bron-AD-Kuzma///Wade-Bron-Bosh


For the most part, these are the traits of the 60s/80s/90s champions (and runners-up squads) and also, the 2010s-current era. 1970s and 2000s weren't as talented (possibly due to league expansions) and for good reason, this is why we romanticize the 60s and 80s/90s most.

Blazers are very fortunate to have Scoot and Sharpe, two potential superstars instead of just one guy. If they can secure a Marc Gasol-esque center AND a Gordon Hayward type wing, they are in good shape, going forward.

Unfortunately, with international players adding a new layer of depth unlike ever before and new salary rules possibly making it difficult to leave teams, many other young teams also have this blueprint.

Rockets, Pistons, Hornets, Thunder, Spurs, Kings. Pacers and Magic not that far off (much closer than Portland).

By that, you want to avoid being like the Timberwolves or Dame-CJ Blazers who only have two stars and maybe a third guy, which makes it so they're contending for 6th-10th seed every year.

Furthermore, this blueprint also suggests that short point guards aren't as relevant as wings/forwards are. That the last 14 out of 17 top PG prospects became All-Stars with Lowry/Brunson/Simons/Kemba/Jrue/etc type players ensuring that 20 good PGs are available at any given time means talented point guards are a dime a dozen. Wings, forwards, and centers are much rarer.

Unless you want a repeat of the last decade, the goal should be to find the "final two" to put around Scoot and Sharpe. Maybe Murray can be one of them. Regardless, the draft is probably the only way to go considering FAs and even trade targets reject Portland.
 
MrDraftGuy said:
With all due respect, you do not want this. Not that it's likely to happen anyway considering how packed the West is.
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Like you say it is unlikely to happen. However if it did, with how packed the West is, that would not be too bad either.
That would mean a few players stepped up quite a bit. I would take that over the 12-pick in the draft.

The unknown player you are alluding to probably needs to be a top 5 pick in a currently starless draft.

Ideally, for me, is for the league to be so competitive that the Blazers play well and win 35 games and still get a top 5 pick.
 
Freshtown said:
That’s right. Let’s not be too good this season, we need this guy or Holland.

https://twitter.com/ushernba/status/1707779829393682489
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Haven’t watched too much of Holland, but he looked like RJ Barrett to me.

Sarr sounds like a sure-fire top 3 pick right now. I’m so unbelievably bullish on the team right now that I can’t see how we could be that high unless Ant and Grant are traded.

But man…if we drafted Sarr. He looks like he could be Mobley, and I LOVE Mobley. I’ve heard JJJ comparisons as well. Having DA start at the 5, then bringing in Sarr to play both backup 4 and 5. That’s potentially scary.

Scoot and Sharpe starting together in ‘24-‘25. DA in the middle, Sarr at backup 4/5. We would have all the picks in the world to find or trade for a superstar wing.
 


The Western conference should beware of the Blazers if we land Sarr in the draft. Sarr isn’t as talented as Wemby or Holmgren or Mobley, but he might develop into just as good as a player without expectations of saving a franchise. With DA already in the middle, Sarr can back up either the PF or C position. He covers the floor so quickly on defense. I would love the direction the team is going in, a lot of long wingspans and guys who can break out off a deflection.
 
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Another prospect to look at with the Warriors pick: Bobi Klintman





Height: 6’10 (I’m assuming with shoes)
Weight: 225lb
Wingspan: 7’0 (no official measurement)
21.25 by the ’24 Draft

Notes:
- great off the ball player
- great shooter with NBA range
- can be a good rim presence (solid athlete that can be a lob target)
- can get to the rim consistently from the 3pt line to the rim
- needs to get stronger
- defensively is raw but moves fluidly for his size (can maybe be a solid defender at the 4). Covers the floor well.
- can maybe bring the ball up the court in grab and go situations

Kind of reminds me of Cam Johnson. Even if he needs a little time for the rest of his game to catch up, his shooting would be instantly valuable on the court with Scoot.
 
BankTeller said:
Another prospect to look at with the Warriors pick: Bobi Klintman





Height: 6’10 (I’m assuming with shoes)
Weight: 225lb
Wingspan: 7’0 (no official measurement)
21.25 by the ’24 Draft

Notes:
- great off the ball player
- great shooter with NBA range
- can be a good rim presence (solid athlete that can be a lob target)
- can get to the rim consistently from the 3pt line to the rim
- needs to get stronger
- defensively is raw but moves fluidly for his size (can maybe be a solid defender at the 4). Covers the floor well.
- can maybe bring the ball up the court in grab and go situations

Kind of reminds me of Cam Johnson. Even if he needs a little time for the rest of his game to catch up, his shooting would be instantly valuable on the court with Scoot.
Click to expand...

Was just looking at video of this cat. I think getting him later in the first (as you said with the Warriors pick), and maybe Aday Mara with our own lottery pick would set this squad up phenomenally well in the frontcourt. (These are presently who NBADraftRoom has us picking at the slots last year's records would afford us)
 
PtldPlatypus said:
Was just looking at video of this cat. I think getting him later in the first (as you said with the Warriors pick), and maybe Aday Mara with our own lottery pick would set this squad up phenomenally well in the frontcourt. (These are presently who NBADraftRoom has us picking at the slots last year's records would afford us)
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I think so too. Klintman is someone who’s going to need a lot of in game reps, but that’s why I love having a GL team now.

Mays feels like a vet now in the GL, I love having him as a main guy to run the sets that we run on the main roster to get these guys familiar with the system. Klintman is a potential two way player who can make decisions as the ball handler on the fast break and shoot 3’s. Rupert could potentially be an elite 3-D guy who can guard 1-3 if he can add 20lbs to combine with his height and wingspan for a SG. I don’t know what the reception on Badji was at SL, but in the one game I saw, he looked HORRIBLE. His size and athleticism make him intriguing but not great instinctually, GL action would help him greatly.

Outside of the numerous 1sts we’re going to get, there’s also 5 2nds between now and 2030, with 2 coming this year. Plenty of other guys to take chances on like Baba Miller and others. I’m loving the Cronin decision to take the 2nds over Wiseman more and more. Schmitz is the truffle-pig. If he keeps picking the right projects and the organization develops them right, one or more of them are bound to hit.
 


I posted about this guy in the ‘23 draft thread but he reclassified to this year. Baba Miller is a really intriguing prospect with elite measurable. He could realistically play primarily SF and be great defending the top wings imo. Great defensive insticts. He grew up playing PG, then had a growth spurt like AD. He shows signs of being able to hit a 3 consistently one day.

A lot of his qualities makes him sound like a 6’11 version of Rayan Rupert. Well like Rupert, I think there’s a possibility he could slip into the 2nd if he isn’t great this year at FSU. I think he’s a pretty good target to gauge with one of the 2nds we have.

Physique wise, he’s build like he could be Giannis. I have no idea on his potential, he could be some version of that kind of player, someone who can dribble and also score at will because he is so tall and lanky.
 
This will be one of the most interesting years to follow all the Mock Draft's as it is very likely that we have at least a Top-5 projected pick. There are 4 projected 1st round picks on the G-League Ignite and quite a bit of length across a number of positions for next summer.

NBA Draft.net
Sarr - 7'1" C
Proctor - 6'5" PG
Holland - 6'7" SF
Edwards - 6'8" SG/SF
Buzelis - 6'11" SF

NBA Draft Room
Holland
Sarr
Castle - 6'7" SG
Edwards
Buzelis

Sports Illustrated
Holland
Edwards
Buzelis
Sarr
Collier - 6'3" PG

Early on for me, Buzelis is the most intriguing as he was a 6'2" guard before a late growth spurt to 6'11". He can handle and create and with his size, creates matchup problems. Haven't seen enough of him to know if he plays defense.

Baba Miller out of Florida St (6'11" SF) is someone D69 has his eye on as someone who could jump up the rankings. Draft Room currently has him at #30.

Getting this pick right could go a long way towards balancing out the young guys with some added size.
 
But I agree on Baba Miller—although I see him possibly slipping like Rupert did so I’m hoping to select him with a 2nd rounder.

Sarr with our pick, Klintman with the Warriors pick, and Miller in the 2nd round would be my current best case result for next year’s draft.
 
Blazers will make the 8th seed playoffs.
Chicago inherits Portland's 1st round pick.
Golden State has to cough up their 1st to Portland.
start lookin' for a Dubs rookie in that 15-20 range
 
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