So if we win 40+ games this year with all our injuries. Can we say we win 50 next season?
well, you can say it. But the 50 win threshold seems a lot harder to cross than the 40 win threshold.
in the 23 seasons since the break-up of the Pippen/Rasheed/Sabonis team, Portland reached the 50 win mark 4 times, but passed the 40 win mark 12 times. Since the Dame/Aldridge team broke-up, Portland hit the 50 win mark once, but passed the 40 win mark 5 times
in the previous 4 non-covid seasons, Western Conference teams hit the 50 win plateau 16 times; 16 times in 60 chances. A 26,7% mark. And 4 of those times teams did just that: won only 50 games. Only 12 out of 60 passed the 50 win mark; 20%.
so, on average, the 50 win threshold = top-4 seed and HCA. Expecting the Blazers to jump from 8th-9th seed to 4th seed doesn't seem realistic. especially when the baseline you're using is the 2024-25 Blazers instead of the rest of the western conference. I mean, if Portland wins 40 games this season that would be a 4 win season-to-season improvement; and last season, the Blazers DID tank a little to end the season. Deni was held out the final 4 games; Grant missed the final 17 games; Simons was held out the final 7 games; Sharpe missed the final 20 games; Scoot missed the final 7 games; Ayton missed the last 10.
in other words, that 36 win total isn't really an honest gauge for this season's win total. But even if it was, a 4-5 win increase in one season isn't a good forecast for a 9-10 win increase next season. I'm not saying it can't happen; just that it's likely too lofty an expectation, all things considered
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also, I don't believe the calculus of injuries favor the Blazers nearly as much as many here seem to believe. To start with, Blazer injury history over the last 5 years show that Portland always has a lot of injuries:
2021-22 - Portland 3rd in games missed by injury
2022-23 - Portland 7th in games missed by injury
2023-24 - Portland 2nd in games missed by injury
2024-25 - Portland 5th in games missed by injury
2025-26 - Portland 6th in games missed by injury
Portland's average ranking for games lost to injury is 4.8 out of 30. Injuries aren't a one-season-bug of Cronin rosters; they are an annual feature. There's not much reason to expect next season will be different
and obviously, the Blazers missing Wesley and Scoot is not the same as Denver missing Jokic & Gordon; or Lakers missing Reaves & Doncic; or the Suns missing Booker, Allen & Brooks
Basketball Index has tried to gauge injuries according to the quality of player games missed:
www.bball-index.com
it's a little tricky to navigate that page, but essentially, it gauges by wins above replacement level players lost to injury. By that gauge, the Blazers have actually lost less than the league average; they rank 18th
