#24 Anfernee Simons

[Scalma]

Has the criticism of Simons been unfair? I looked up at his monthly splits. They are

October: 51% FG, 36% 3PT, 1.4 TO, 0.4 Assist

November: 40%, 34%, 0.9, 1.7

December: 43%, 33%, 0.7, 1.2

January: 35%, 23%, 1.3, 1.9

February: 52%, 50%, 0.7, 1.7
————

If you take out his awful January his splits come out to

47% FG, 38% 3PT, 0.9 TO, 1.3 assists

Now obviously February is a small sample, but I see a young player who hit a wall in the middle of the season; a pretty common thing, and we’ve probably overreacted largely because of the hype he came into the season with. He’s being developed as a point guard and is learning to run a team for the first time at the highest level of organized basketball. Physically it’s pretty obvious he’s underdeveloped and will take time.

I think the biggest mistake Olshey made was not having a contingency plan in case Simons showed he wasn’t ready. Then again, the growing pains might end up being worth it if he continues to improve the second half of the season. He obviously needs development in the playmaking department, and that’ll be the biggest question going forward, because of Trent and Littles development, his only shot at real playing time next year is at point guard. Still, he's probably been given shit he hasn’t really deserved.

 

[kjironman1]

Then again, the growing pains might end up being worth it if he continues to improve the second half of the season.

He definitely looked better and more confident last night. Looked in control and his pace was within the game. Maybe the whole picture coming into focus a bit? Many call it the game slowing down for him? A step closer to where he needed to be on defense. It seems that is always the toughest part. Young players get out of sync on defense and it frustrates their offense. Then Coaches do what coaches do. They pull the player and try something else that might work better to win a game.

 

[Scalma]

He definitely looked better and more confident last night. Looked in control and his pace was within the game. Maybe the whole picture coming into focus a bit? Many call it the game slowing down for him? A step closer to where he needed to be on defense. It seems that is always the toughest part. Young players get out of sync on defense and it frustrates their offense. Then Coaches do what coaches do. They pull the player and try something else that might work better to win a game.

Yeah hopefully it’s slowing down for him. I’ve also seen some compare him to other players his age and it’s kind of unfair. A year of division 1 basketball is a lot different than a year at IMG. You could bring up Mitchell Robinson but that dude is a center, his job isn’t that difficult. It’s a lot easier to play on instinct when you don’t have to remember where everyone else is on the court.

 

[wizenheimer]

Has the criticism of Simons been unfair? I looked up at his monthly splits. They are

October: 51% FG, 36% 3PT, 1.4 TO, 0.4 Assist

November: 40%, 34%, 0.9, 1.7

December: 43%, 33%, 0.7, 1.2

January: 35%, 23%, 1.3, 1.9

February: 52%, 50%, 0.7, 1.7
————

If you take out his awful January his splits come out to

47% FG, 38% 3PT, 0.9 TO, 1.3 assists

did you just add up those numbers, excluding January, and divide by 4?

in reality, for example, his FG% for those 4 months was/is .427. That's not bad but it's not 47%. And his 3ptFG% is .351, not 38%. Again, those aren't horrible numbers. But of course, there aren't mulligans in the NBA....unless you're playing for the Kings

I'd agree it's possible he hit some kind of wall that young players often hit, but it is a contrast that Trent isn't hitting the same wall. Now perhaps, Simons got scouted and teams started taking away things he likes to do. That happens with every player. And maybe scouting will next catch up to Trent and he'll slam into a similar wall. What's important is how players adjust to the things other teams are doing

 

[Scalma]

did you just add up those numbers, excluding January, and divide by 4?

in reality, for example, his FG% for those 4 months was/is .427. That's not bad but it's not 47%. And his 3ptFG% is .351, not 38%. Again, those aren't horrible numbers. But of course, there aren't mulligans in the NBA....unless you're playing for the Kings

I'd agree it's possible he hit some kind of wall that young players often hit, but it is a contrast that Trent isn't hitting the same wall. Now perhaps, Simons got scouted and teams started taking away things he likes to do. That happens with every player. And maybe scouting will next catch up to Trent and he'll slam into a similar wall. What's important is how players adjust to the things other teams are doing

Idk what I did maybe maybe not.

but Trent also played a season of college and is obviously more physically mature. What are the most amount of games/minutes Simons has played before this season? I don’t even know what an IMG schedule looks like. The wall he hit could easily be physical rather than a scouting report. I mean he was missing wide open looks.

 

[wizenheimer]

Idk what I did maybe maybe not.

but Trent also played a season of college and is obviously more physically mature. What are the most amount of games/minutes Simons has played before this season? I don’t even know what an IMG schedule looks like. The wall he hit could easily be physical rather than a scouting report. I mean he was missing wide open looks.

yeah, I don't know what it looks like either, but I'll check google:

https://www.maxpreps.com/high-schools/img-academy-ascenders-(bradenton,fl)/basketball/schedule.htm

I don't have any real way to judge the schedule but I'm guessing it wasn't as challenging as Duke

and here is the schedule when Simons was there:

https://www.maxpreps.com/high-schoo...nton,fl)/basketball-winter-17-18/schedule.htm

 

[lawai'a]

yeah, I don't know what it looks like either, but I'll check google:

https://www.maxpreps.com/high-schools/img-academy-ascenders-(bradenton,fl)/basketball/schedule.htm

I don't have any real way to judge the schedule but I'm guessing it wasn't as challenging as Duke

and here is the schedule when Simons was there:

https://www.maxpreps.com/high-schoo...nton,fl)/basketball-winter-17-18/schedule.htm

Looks like mostly high school age kids with several high school teams for included opponents during Simons' time there. The roster on one of IMG's opponents listed a tallest player @6'6" and guards between 5'9"-6'1".

 

[Labinot41]

The stats definetly don't match the eye test

 

[Scalma]

Simons has continued to play well lately. Shooting 50% from the field and outside in his last ten games. I hear some say this is a lost season, and to a degree it might be, but the development of players like Simons, Trent, and Little makes me say it’s not. Those are three rotation caliber players next season, something we might not have been able to say with as much certainty had everyone stayed healthy, especially in Trent and Littles cases.

 

[TBpup]

If Dame misses a few games, it is the perfect time for Simons to get more run and built his game. Just hope that he can stay away from the CJ tendencies of being an inefficient chucker. Last night CJ had 23 points on 25 shots while an admittedly hot Ant had 22 points on 12 shots.

Would like to see Ant in situations where when a teammate is on fire, he makes every effort to get him the ball. CJ's mindset seems to be, if someone else his hot, he needs to keep shooting no matter how many bricks he is throwing up to match the 'hot' player's point production.

 

[illmatic99]

Would like to see Ant in situations where when a teammate is on fire, he makes every effort to get him the ball. CJ's mindset seems to be, if someone else his hot, he needs to keep shooting no matter how many bricks he is throwing up to match the 'hot' player's point production.

OK this is a common narrative, but when has this actually happened? I remember a ton of games when he deliberately got out of Dame's way when he was on fire.

 

[TBpup]

OK this is a common narrative, but when has this actually happened? I remember a ton of games when he deliberately got out of Dame's way when he was on fire.

Dame is the only one he will do that for. Gary Trent is on fire? Doesn't matter.....CJ is chucking. Whiteside shooting 80% for the night? CJ is chucking while Hassan gets single digit shots. Ant last night 6-7 from 3-pt range? CJ jacks up 6 more shots than anyone else on the team. Ariza hot against Miami? CJ takes 50% more shots shooting 33%. The examples are far too frequent.

 

[illmatic99]

Dame is the only one he will do that for. Gary Trent is on fire? Doesn't matter.....CJ is chucking. Whiteside shooting 80% for the night? CJ is chucking while Hassan gets single digit shots. Ant last night 6-7 from 3-pt range? CJ jacks up 6 more shots than anyone else on the team. Ariza hot against Miami? CJ takes 50% more shots shooting 33%. The examples are far too frequent.

Think this argument is too simplistic and the supporting evidence isn't really indicative of anything when you simply point out shot attempts. Dame took 19 shots last night and hit only 7. Melo took 15 while making only 1. I don't think CJ forced anything last night until late in the fourth. I

If anything the one guy I saw taking shots away from Ant, it was Trent last night on multiple occasions, going one on three while ignoring Simons.

 

[hoopsjock]

OK this is a common narrative, but when has this actually happened? I remember a ton of games when he deliberately got out of Dame's way when he was on fire.

Last night after Ant hit his 6th consecutive 3 and then got to the free throw line the very next possession the inbounder was going to pass it in to Ant but CJ came down the opposite side of the court calling for the ball. So the inbounder pased to CJ and he dribbled around and shot a brick without passing once.

It's possessions like this that are so selfish and drive me crazy. I'm not saying CJ is a bad player though.

 

[TBpup]

Think this argument is too simplistic and the supporting evidence isn't really indicative of anything when you simply point out shot attempts. Dame took 19 shots last night and hit only 7. Melo took 15 while making only 1. I don't think CJ forced anything last night until late in the fourth. I

If anything the one guy I saw taking shots away from Ant, it was Trent last night on multiple occasions, going one on three while ignoring Simons.

Bigger picture.....not just one game. I gave multiple games worth of examples. No on shot well last night (outside of Ant) but using Dame, one of the most efficient players in the NBA as an example of 'silly pointing out of shot attempts' might not be the best example. Just sayin'....

Now using Melo? Great example because he is #15 on the Blazers in eFG%....behind Little, Hoard and Gabriel! Less shooting for him and more for someone who is hot....well maybe that makes too much sense.

 

[PCmor7]

My concern is Ant trying to do too much. That's what got him messed up in the first place. Too much thinking. Too much trying to break guys down off the dribble and make these highlight plays.

What ignited him last night was Dame driving and getting him a couple of open looks early. He got confidence and he got the defense's attention which opens lanes for him to start attacking the basket. He fits better playing with Dame than with CJ, though.

 

[Scalma]

He fits better playing with Dame than with CJ, though.

So does everyone else hehe.

 

[PCmor7]

So does everyone else hehe.

LOL. Obviously.

Seriously speaking, though, just in the style of game and not ability. Right now, Ant's kind of like CJ in mindset without CJ's ability. He needs someone who can create scoring opportunities for him before he starts overdribbling and trying to create for himself. He needs someone to get him open, let him knock down a couple of shots and get confidence. His game seems to flow then.

 

[jlprk]

How does simons get so much minutes for a 2nd year player and doesn’t make the rising stars game? Does that mean he’s sucked that bad?

The Rising Stars game has 10 Americans vs. 10 foreigners, from the last 2 drafts. In his draft class alone, Simons was picked #24. That makes him 48th-most-likely in a field of 20. What are you complaining about?

In his 1-year 2018 draft class alone (2 drafts play in the game), he is #29 in career minutes, and below the top 5 Americans in the other categories too. (Click his name to make it orange, return to page, click column headings.)

https://www.basketball-reference.com/draft/NBA_2018.html

He's not playing below expectations, based on draft position. To accelerate his development, Olshey didn't obtain a sub PG. If you think Olshey mis-evaluated him after his rookie season, make it clear you're not blaming the player.

See roster. Simons is not better than any American sophomore there...Bridges, Graham, Jackson, Young, Carter, or Carter's replacement Sexton.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rising_Stars_Challenge#2020_game

 

[Scalma]

I’ll tell you who should’ve been in the rising stars challenge.



Grades out better than Miami’s other rookie as well, the 24 year old. Wish Trent would’ve gotten minutes earlier. Thanks Terry.

 

[wizenheimer]

I’ll tell you who should’ve been in the rising stars challenge.

View attachment 29899

Grades out better than Miami’s other rookie as well, the 24 year old. Wish Trent would’ve gotten minutes earlier. Thanks Terry.

keep him as unknown as possible....otherwise Brooklyn will give him a 4-year/100M offer sheet

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

keep him as unknown as possible....otherwise Brooklyn will give him a 4-year/100M offer sheet

It's alright neil will match, then trade him for a TPE he can tell us all about how great of a piece that is just to not be able to use it.

 

[hoopsjock]

It's alright neil will match, then trade him for a TPE he can tell us all about how great of a piece that is just to not be able to use it.

UGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

We still have Nicholson's $2.844 million on the books for 4 more seasons after this one. Then we paid Chicago to take Noah Vonleh when Shabazz Napier and Ed Davis both had actual trade value. The reason that matters? We let both walk that summer. So the Blazers could've actually gotten something to help them in the future and possibly even re-signed Vonleh for cheap (he signed for the minimum that summer) all while still ducking the tax. The whole reasoning behind getting under the tax was knowing that the tax was going to be an issue the following couple years and preventing the repeater tax from coming a year earlier.

Fast forward to this season, we still have Varejao and Nicholson counting against the cap. The ironic thing is if those two weren't still counting they'd be under the tax line right now. Much like Vonleh we give away Skal but this time it doesn't even get us under the tax line. Similarly we hold on to the vet center Whiteside instead of trading him to save money instead. If the Blazers don't make the playoffs or let Whiteside or Ariza walk in the off season then they will have once again paid to get rid of a young big and lessened their roster without anything to show for it.

Just a complete mismanagement of the cap and assets.

 

[Scalma]

UGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

We still have Nicholson's $2.844 million on the books for 4 more seasons after this one. Then we paid Chicago to take Noah Vonleh when Shabazz Napier and Ed Davis both had actual trade value. The reason that matters? We let both walk that summer. So the Blazers could've actually gotten something to help them in the future and possibly even re-signed Vonleh for cheap (he signed for the minimum that summer) all while still ducking the tax. The whole reasoning behind getting under the tax was knowing that the tax was going to be an issue the following couple years and preventing the repeater tax from coming a year earlier.

Fast forward to this season, we still have Varejao and Nicholson counting against the cap. The ironic thing is if those two weren't still counting they'd be under the tax line right now. Much like Vonleh we give away Skal but this time it doesn't even get us under the tax line. Similarly we hold on to the vet center Whiteside instead of trading him to save money instead. If the Blazers don't make the playoffs or let Whiteside or Ariza walk in the off season then they will have once again paid to get rid of a young big and lessened their roster without anything to show for it.

Just a complete mismanagement of the cap and assets.

You say Napier and Davis had value, but they both had to settle for one year deals that summer. So, maybe they didn’t? Same idea with Whiteside. Detroit got what in return for Drummond exactly?

 

[wizenheimer]

UGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

We still have Nicholson's $2.844 million on the books for 4 more seasons after this one. Then we paid Chicago to take Noah Vonleh when Shabazz Napier and Ed Davis both had actual trade value. The reason that matters? We let both walk that summer. So the Blazers could've actually gotten something to help them in the future and possibly even re-signed Vonleh for cheap (he signed for the minimum that summer) all while still ducking the tax. The whole reasoning behind getting under the tax was knowing that the tax was going to be an issue the following couple years and preventing the repeater tax from coming a year earlier.

Fast forward to this season, we still have Varejao and Nicholson counting against the cap. The ironic thing is if those two weren't still counting they'd be under the tax line right now. Much like Vonleh we give away Skal but this time it doesn't even get us under the tax line. Similarly we hold on to the vet center Whiteside instead of trading him to save money instead. If the Blazers don't make the playoffs or let Whiteside or Ariza walk in the off season then they will have once again paid to get rid of a young big and lessened their roster without anything to show for it.

Just a complete mismanagement of the cap and assets.

just as long as you're ranting, another factor glossed over in the Skal trade:

teams only have a set limit of cash to trade each year. IIRC it's around 5M. That means Portland spent 40% of their available cash leverage moving Skal, and we all know the best time to have that cash leverage is around the draft. Go to town HJ!

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

just as long as you're ranting, another factor glossed over in the Skal trade:

teams only have a set limit of cash to trade each year. IIRC it's around 5M. That means Portland spent 40% of their available cash leverage moving Skal, and we all know the best time to have that cash leverage is around the draft. Go to town HJ!

I think it's the first sign business-wise that PA is gone. This isn't a knock on Jody it's her business she can do what she wants, but I think PA would have pushed Neil to do things differently. I don't believe they are acting with future flexibility, or how do we put the best team on the court.

 

[hoopsjock]

I think it's the first sign business-wise that PA is gone. This isn't a knock on Jody it's her business she can do what she wants, but I think PA would have pushed Neil to do things differently. I don't believe they are acting with future flexibility, or how do we put the best team on the court.

But that doesn't explain why this summer in both big trades they added a bunch of money to their payroll (they'd be under the tax right now without those and probably not much worse off).

PA was around when we dumped Vonleh to get under the tax too. If they wanted to get under the tax this year I would've totally understood. I just don't like saving money but not getting out of the tax and then wanting to let this team see if they can compete for the playoffs but not really helping them do so and trading away one of the group of players that still had untapped potential. Pick a lane!

 

[hoopsjock]

You say Napier and Davis had value, but they both had to settle for one year deals that summer. So, maybe they didn’t? Same idea with Whiteside. Detroit got what in return for Drummond exactly?

1) There were plenty of teams looking for PG and big man depth for the playoffs that year. Both of their contracts were at worse equal to their production. They could've at least gotten a 2nd round pick for Davis.

2) The opposite is true for big men making $27 million. No matter what their stats most teams don't value those contracts that way anymore. Whiteside's value was almost exclusively because his contract was expiring, not because of the stats he puts up. If Portland bought him out right now he'd have every playoff team interested in signing him because it would only cost the minimum and they wouldn't have the trouble of matching contracts. Drummond had minimal value because Detroit was unwilling to trade him for salary next year. If Portland was willing to trade him (along with Hezonja) to Charlotte for MKG and Zeller thus taking on a contract for next year they likely could've gotten the Cleveland 2nd round pick from Charlotte for doing so (currently 32nd). Then you flip MKG for a smaller contract, say Felicio from Chicago that still has a year left and maybe a future pick or something and all of a sudden you're out of the tax completely and picked up a 2nd round pick. This isn't even going into options that were actually on the table had they been willing to listen. This was the way to actually save money, not having to pay for Atlanta to take Skal.

Now you could argue that it would ruin our chances at the playoffs this year, but that goes back to my point that they now HAVE to make the playoffs and HAVE to keep Whiteside because otherwise they are basically a tax team for nothing. Jody couldn't possibly be happy with that outcome.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

But that doesn't explain why this summer in both big trades they added a bunch of money to their payroll (they'd be under the tax right now without those and probably not much worse off).

PA was around when we dumped Vonleh to get under the tax too. If they wanted to get under the tax this year I would've totally understood. I just don't like saving money but not getting out of the tax and then wanting to let this team see if they can compete for the playoffs but not really helping them do so and trading away one of the group of players that still had untapped potential. Pick a lane!

So before someone tells me I'm spreading misinformation or whatever... this is my unsubstantiated opinion, I'm allowed to have that...
I think Jody was willing to spend when they appeared to be winning.
I think as this season went on though that she's not a passionate owner like PA was, she's not really a fan of the game and understands the ebbs and flows and patience and all that. I think she's not going to have any patience with paying top dollar for losing.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

Simons was MUCH worse in January than in the other months:

Simons Stats sans January (calculated "by hand"):
FG: 147/337 = 43.6% (Jan: 35.1%, Season: 41.5%) edit: CJ: 44.6%
3FG: 54/145 = 37.2% (Jan: 23.3%, Season: 34.0%) edit: CJ: 38.3%
FT: 45/56 = 80.3% (Jan: 86.4%, Season: 82.1%) edit: CJ: 75%

Ast: 55
TOV: 44
TRB: 102
MPG: 857
Games Played: 40

AST/36 = 2.3
TOV/36: 1.3
Reb/36 = 4.3

APG: 1.4 (Jan. 1.9, Season: 1.5)
TOPG: 0.8 (Jan. 1.27, Season: 1.0)
RPG: 2.6 (Jan. 2.3, Season: 2.5)
+/-PG: -4.7 (Jan. -12.4)

Summary:

• His FG% was much worse in Jan.
• His 3FG% was much, much worse in Jan.
• He turned the ball over much more in Jan.
  
• His +/- was crazy bad in Jan, normal for our sucky bench otherwise.
• Does this matter? I think so, for a 2nd year 20 year old. Of course, I freely admit to being a homer.
• After all, lots of players would look much better if you took out their worst month, but, again I think it makes more sense for Simons considering his age.
  
• Don't Give Up on Simons!
• edit: Non-January SHOOTING numbers comparable to CJ
  
• What the h-e-c-k happened to Simons in January? Sick? Played Injured? Hung out with ZBO and Lovin'?

sources:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/simonan01/splits/2020
https://www.espn.com/nba/player/stats/_/id/4351851/anfernee-simons