25-16 at the halfway point.

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Thats exactly 50 wins projected.

Couple of notes: so far 22 games on the road and 19 at home. That switches for second half.

If the Blazers can go just 9-10 on the road, they only need to go 16-6 at home to hit 50 wins. They were 15-4 in the first half.

They also play 14 games against the bottom six (MN, GS, LAC, MEM, SAC, OKC).
 
If the Blazers can go just 9-10 on the road, they only need to go 16-6 at home to hit 50 wins. They were 15-4 in the first half.

That's pretty good perspective right there. I think we can most definitely go 9-10 on the road, and 16-6 at home. 50 wins is definitely doable for this team if we can avoid any more serious injuries, and just continue to get better.
25-16 is definitely a record this team should be proud of so far.
 
My original prediction was 47 wins, so as far as I'm concerned they are ahead of schedule. Of course the fact that their first half schedule is an order of magnitude more difficult than the remainder (at least on paper) those 25 wins are looking a lot more impressive.
 
My original prediction was 47 wins, so as far as I'm concerned they are ahead of schedule. Of course the fact that their first half schedule is an order of magnitude more difficult than the remainder (at least on paper) those 25 wins are looking a lot more impressive.

Eh. I counted 22 games against the "elite" (Western 8, Boston, Cleveland, Detroit, Atlanta, Orlando) during the 1st half and 19 in the second half. So, it might not really be "easier".
 
We are only 11-10 in our last 21 games. If we don't pick up our level of play, we'll finish more around 45 wins and I don't think that will be enough. It's time to start a little win streak.
 
I know some of you aren't big fans of John Hollinger, but his current play-off race predictions are interesting.

He is projecting the Blazers to take 4th in the West, with 50 wins. (just ahead of SA and just behind Denver) He also has the Suns nipping the Mavs for the 8th spot.

Take it FWIW.
 
We are only 11-10 in our last 21 games. If we don't pick up our level of play, we'll finish more around 45 wins and I don't think that will be enough. It's time to start a little win streak.

Agreed. With the injury problems, it won't be easy.
 
I'm sticking with 52 wins. I think we'll win a couple more in the second half than the first. 27-13
 
And last year at this time we were only 25-16. so we are much better......er....wait:confused:
 
We are only 11-10 in our last 21 games. If we don't pick up our level of play, we'll finish more around 45 wins and I don't think that will be enough. It's time to start a little win streak.

Look at it this way, KS:
After 5 games: 2-3 (.400)
After 10: 6-4 (.600)
After 15: 9-6 (.600)
After 20: 14-6 (.700)
After 25: 15-10 (.600)
After 30: 18-12 (.600)
After 35: 21-14 (.600)
After 40: 24-16 (.600)

At nearly every 5-game benchmark, we've been a .600 team. We surged between games 15-20, and then returned to the equilibrium between games 21-25 (which accounts for the 11-10 mark you cite). All in all, we've actually been quite consistent this year.
 
like i said yesterday BEFORE we won....we are the same as last year with no improvement. woo hoo.

i dont know why everyne is so pumped...if we lose to the cavs we prob will fall into the 9th spot before we play again.

this current team will not beat the west contenders on the road as is.
 
Eh. I counted 22 games against the "elite" (Western 8, Boston, Cleveland, Detroit, Atlanta, Orlando) during the 1st half and 19 in the second half. So, it might not really be "easier".

it's was also more road heavy, which factors into the "difficulty" measurement.
 
like i said yesterday BEFORE we won....we are the same as last year with no improvement. woo hoo.

Sweet! If we are the same as last year, we should be expecting to go on a 13-game winning streak. After our 13-game winning streak we'll really be sitting pretty!!! :clap:
 
it's was also more road heavy, which factors into the "difficulty" measurement.

Also more back to backs. I believe we played at one point every 1.8 days or something like that. We won't do anything near that the rest of the way.
 
And last year at this time we were only 25-16. so we are much better......er....wait:confused:

Yes, now comes the test over last year. I think we'll do much better than we did last year. What, the second half we were the reverse, 16-25? I think we'll do much better the second half of this season, but we won't know until we play them. :)

Hopefully we'll continue to get better as the season goes on and not only make the playoffs, but get HCA in the first round. I think the only if we are decimated by injuries will we fail to at least reach the playoffs.
 
we will need something like that to make the playoffs...at least a 7 game streak
 
I'm still curious if 50 wins will make the playoffs this year... Very little separation between the teams right now.
 
I know some of you aren't big fans of John Hollinger, but his current play-off race predictions are interesting.

He is projecting the Blazers to take 4th in the West, with 50 wins. (just ahead of SA and just behind Denver) He also has the Suns nipping the Mavs for the 8th spot.

Take it FWIW.

Yet he predicted what, 41 wins prior to the season, and posters here who took issue and said it would be 48-50 were mocked. :crazy:
 
Well, my 56 - 58 wins is definitely in jeopardy. Not impossible, but unlikely. The team would need to go 31-10 in the second half to hit 56 wins. The 14 games against the cellar dwellers will help, but nothing is a gimme. We've already seen the Blazers lose to the Clippers at home and to the Bobcats. To get to 56 wins, they'll have to beat the teams they need to beat - every time.

They will also have to beat the top teams at home. They've already gotten abused twice by the Lakers in LA. They weren't at full strength in either game, and we all know the Blazers play much better against the Lakers at home.

The schedule is definitely more favorable during the second half (more easy games, more home games and fewer back-to-backs). So, I expect 52 - 54 wins, with an outside shot at 56. Who knows, if they can finally get all three of Roy, Aldridge and Oden playing well at the same time, on a consistent basis, maybe they can even hit 58 wins. It seems like they always win when 2 of the 3 play well. They would be almost unbeatable if all three guys were playing well in each and every game.

It seems like there's always one or two teams that catch fire after the all-star break and separate themselves from the pack. It's usually a veteran team making a play-off push, or a team that acquires a critical piece at the trade deadline. Last year it was the Rockets (23-7 after the all-star game) and the Lakers (22-8 after the all-star game, 27-9 after the Gasol trade). Can the Blazers be one of those teams this year?

BNM
 
Whether or not the team is better right now doesn't concern me nearly as much as the fact that we DO play 3 rookies (and integrating a 4th) who will, at some point, hit the rookie wall. That our "veterans" are more "really good role-playing backups" rather than team leaders in performance. I just don't know if last season's relative collapse at the end was a fluke, or a sign of things potentially to come. I love the outlook of the team going forward, but I think you have to take at least a cursory glance at recent history and the cautionary tales of young teams in our position (though perhaps less talented). I love what I'm hearing about incorporating new offensive sets (like the hi-low wrinkle last night) and that we're getting guys on the floor who are part of our future. But couldn't you admit, that, even if you personally weren't worried, you could see potentially how someone could be concerned about the present-day performance of the team (especially against inferior teams on the road and our lack of game-to-game adjustments)? I mean, from the other threads we've seen recently, just the "switching picks", "offensive efficiency vs. inefficiency" arguments and the "rotation issues" thoughts give enough meat to chew over one way to another and back.

As far as comparing last year to this year, 2 weeks ago I didn't take it for granted we'd be better than 41-41. I started this season with really high expectations based upon how I thought our team had improved and was going to mesh together. I didn't expect some of the lackluster efforts we've seen, especially against the poorer teams (getting crushed by LAL and BOS didn't bother me as much as losing to CHA and SAC did). If there's anything a young team should have, it's effort and hustle. And those lapses, coupled with what I thought was a stagnant offense** and ineffective-at-times defense that played to the level (or just below the level) of the competition on 2 of every 5 nights wasn't giving me warm fuzzies.

All that said, I really like that we're taking a hard look at our D, and having the media finally start asking some questions about it. I like seeing the offense tweaked to incorporate new things. I like that we're seeing what Sergio and Bayless can do without the crutch of Blake (don't take that as an indictment of Blake--I just mean that we're seeing an accelerated look at what these guys can do against NBA players in real-life games). I like Oden having more consistent games more often. It's those things, MUCH more so than record, 3pt%, offensive EFF, rebounds, whatever that give me the hope of >50wins. And that's come within the last two weeks.
 
Well at some point dont all teams go from a young team that falls short to that team that gets "over the hump" or does it always take some intrigral veteren pieces for those young teams to get get over that hump??? The answer to that question will probably go a long way towards deciding how we want to handle trades now and going forward.
 
I predicted 47 (with Webster) and I think we are good for another 23 wins by looking at the schedule. 48 may not be enough for the playoffs but it will be close.

But to say this team is doing the same as last year is a little short sighted IMO. As pointed out we are playing 4 rookies and still have won 25 games at the half way mark. I am pleasantly surprised.
 
Yet he predicted what, 41 wins prior to the season, and posters here who took issue and said it would be 48-50 were mocked. :crazy:

You have the most fucked-up memory.

I predicted 48 wins AND protected some of Hollinger's methods (which put them at 42 wins).

Who mocked anyone for predicting 48-50 wins?

Ed O.
 
You have the most fucked-up memory.

I predicted 48 wins AND protected some of Hollinger's methods (which put them at 42 wins).

Who mocked anyone for predicting 48-50 wins?

Ed O.

Leading by example...

You also "protected" nothing by Hollinger since it was, as I said then, impacted by subjectively unknowns such as "luck". He now says 50. Gee, what was the point of his initial prediction?
 
We are on pace for 50, and we also have more home games than away the 2nd half, and already got rid of our hardest stretch of the season (taking into account opponent, home/away, and time in between games).

I think we can break 50 barring injuries.
 
Leading by example...

Stop being ridiculous.

You also "protected" nothing by Hollinger since it was, as I said then, impacted by subjectively unknowns such as "luck". He now says 50. Gee, what was the point of his initial prediction?

Firstly, I did protect something. Was I successful? That's unclear. With you, obviously not. You seem unwilling or unable to ever change your mind, though, so it's no big deal to me either way.

Secondly, as anyone who read Hollinger's projections should know, his preseason and in-season projections have different data to project FROM. Hollinger's current projections are based on the performance to date and the remaining schedule. That's entirely different from preseason projections.

Ed O.
 
Whether or not the team is better right now doesn't concern me nearly as much as the fact that we DO play 3 rookies (and integrating a 4th) who will, at some point, hit the rookie wall.

Our four rookies are averaging :

Rudy: 26.5 MPG for 40 games
Oden: 22.7 MPG for 35 games
Batum: 17.6 MPG for 41 games
Bayless: 11.4 MPG for 21 games

It's not like these guys are all playing 35 - 40 minutes per night. Rudy and Batum were both starters who played heavy minutes for their European teams. Granted, the schedule was shorter, but they are both used to playing more MPG than they are currently getting.

The more Oden plays, the better shape he's in. He's finally starting to get into game shape where he can play more than 24 minutes without kealing over. Unless Nate starts playing him 40 minutes per game, I don't see him hitting the so-called rookie wall anytime soon. In fact, I see him continuing to improve as the season progresses.

And Bayless played over 4x as many minutes last season in colleg than what he's played sor far this season in the NBA.

Given their roles and their PT, I don't expect our rookies to hit any kind of "wall". If anything, I see them continuing to improve (especially Oden and Bayless) with more PT and more experience.

BNM
 
Stop being ridiculous.



Firstly, I did protect something. Was I successful? That's unclear. With you, obviously not. You seem unwilling or unable to ever change your mind, though, so it's no big deal to me either way.

Secondly, as anyone who read Hollinger's projections should know, his preseason and in-season projections have different data to project FROM. Hollinger's current projections are based on the performance to date and the remaining schedule. That's entirely different from preseason projections.

Ed O.

Then what is the point of him predicting anything if the predictions change on a daily basis based on performance? He'd have best left luck out of his pre-season prediction as well if it is all performance-based. I found it an affront to the Jamesian approach to statistical analysis. Now it is revised upward to reflect reality. Revolutionary stuff there, Hollinger.
 
Then what is the point of him predicting anything if the predictions change on a daily basis based on performance? He'd have best left luck out of his pre-season prediction as well if it is all performance-based. I found it an affront to the Jamesian approach to statistical analysis. Now it is revised upward to reflect reality. Revolutionary stuff there, Hollinger.

You expose how little you know what you're talking about on a remarkably consistent basis.

Ed O.
 
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