8/22 ESPN Power Rankings - Blazers 10th in West

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blazerkor said:
I could see Minny struggling with two guys that big and although somewhat athletic for the 5, very slow for the modern 4. So I don't love the way they built this roster. That being said if Anthony Edwards takes his game up to an even higher level this season, yikes!

As far as Denver goes, who the fuck has us better than them if we're both healthy? I mean Murray, KCP, MPJ, Gordon and Joker with guys like Jeff Green, Ish Smith and Bruce Brown off the bench... that's a team that can contend.
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I actually see Minny having an amazing season in the regular season and flaming out in the playoffs. I think all the points you made don’t become a problem until they are magnified in the postseason.
 
The projects don’t seem to be slighting the Blazers, I can’t even be mad at the projections. At least this year, if we don’t make the playoffs, we’ll have a late lotto pick in a draft that I’m much more excited about.

That being said, I’m fairly certain Dame carries us into the playoffs if we are in a play-in game.
 
blazerkor said:
I could see Minny struggling with two guys that big and although somewhat athletic for the 5, very slow for the modern 4. So I don't love the way they built this roster. That being said if Anthony Edwards takes his game up to an even higher level this season, yikes!

As far as Denver goes, who the fuck has us better than them if we're both healthy? I mean Murray, KCP, MPJ, Gordon and Joker with guys like Jeff Green, Ish Smith and Bruce Brown off the bench... that's a team that can contend.
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It was the Fonz and Sleeper guys. Would have to look. They both said we have more talent than those two teams. Man people are blinded by that pinwheel I swear.
 
THE HCP said:
It was the Fonz and Sleeper guys. Would have to look. They both said we have more talent than those two teams. Man people are blinded by that pinwheel I swear.
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Oh, Minny has three seriously elite players and good role players, I just don't know about the fit but obviously a lot more talent than us. Denver is just laughable they've got to be one of the top 5 teams in the league as far as talent goes and we're a middling team. I don't think we're 10th in the West but just because I think we're 7th doesn't mean we're a lot better than 10th and that's with my bias as a fan of the team.
 
Minnesota sports teams have perfected the art of being bad no matter their talent level - any assumption of their success is insane.
 
Fairly-Hard said:
Nah it isn't that big a jump. Add 10 games at 40% win rate and you get 4 games. You could say 50% win rate and say 5 games. Any way you stretch it it ain't getting 48 wins from 39.5.
Wishful thinking is nice but 41 wins would be good for this team IMO.
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Why would you add 10 at 40% when they played 58% ball all year? 48-34 is equivalent of 42-30. So if we’re better than that team, we should be pushing 50. If not, is Dame even an All Star anymore? And why did we extend him?
 
PtldPlatypus said:
If they were 42-30 in 72 games, that's nearly a 60% win rate, so yes, the same rate applied over 82 games would be 48-34.
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If you want to say 60% I'm good with that. Still doesn't make 48. The line is 39.5. 60% of 10 is 6. 39.5 + 6 = 45.5
Now lets get back to reality here. This team ain't winning 48 games.
 
blazerkor said:
Yeah or instead of you could say, you could just do the math and see that the win rate was 58.3%. So getting 48 wins from 39.5 is a stretch of .17 wins... so not really a stretch at all just a logical rounding up from 47.83 to 48.
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The conversation is about the line that Vegas set at 39.5 but if you want to simply compare a completely different team that is fine with me. Call it what you wish.
Bottom line is this team isn't winning 48 games this year.
 
KSF-ERIC said:
Why would you add 10 at 40% when they played 58% ball all year? 48-34 is equivalent of 42-30. So if we’re better than that team, we should be pushing 50. If not, is Dame even an All Star anymore? And why did we extend him?
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Maybe look at the roster of that team and the roster of this team and your original comment was about the line being 39-5? Then make an assessment based in reality. One Nurk injury and the obvious Nassir missed 5 games out of every 10 plus a Rookie Coach with a bad schedule. Is Drew Eubanks going to carry this team on those 6 game road trips?
I'm also feeling the impending doom of cutbacks and price shaving due to management trying to get the team ready for sale. Sorry but i simply don't have the "Magic" feel this year at all. The team is tip toeing around a complete rebuild and trying one more year not to throw the towel in. Lillard will most likely be gone by the trade deadline if this doesn't work and they will be lottery bound again is what i feel.
 
tlongII said:
I have too much respect for my $100 bills to do that.
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Yeah but if some how the Blazers are at least in the playoff hunt at the trade deadline and they happen to get a good trade that nets them someone who could make a difference and the injury bug stays away while maybe even giving them some help that $100 bill might change to 100 $100 bills.
Long odds are just that.
 
STOMP said:
These rankings are pretty much exactly as I see it & 10th was what I picked in the recent prediction thread. Of course some teams will suffer injuries and not live up to expectations, hopefully Portland isn't one of them.

STOMP
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It seems like the broad consensus here is these rankings are pretty fair, that the 2022-23 Blazers are clearly not a contending team, and possibly not even a playoff team. Maybe the Blazers get a few breaks and exceed expectations, but even winning one playoff series would be a massive overperformance.

That current lack of talent on this roster, lack of expectations, and lack of flexibility is directly linked to the deadline moves. Its linked to the lack of talent/assets the Blazers received back in trades, and was predictably the expected outcome to be at today of a rational fan back then.

It's a bit odd to me, as going back to the trade deadline there were all these Blazers fans positing here applauding the moves and how happy they are the Blazers were zagging from the Olshey direction. How there was all this "flexibility" the Blazers now had to improve, and how the Olshey assets had to be dumped right away basically regardless of the cost.

Fast forward 6 months and the team has one of the worst projections in the last decade, hard capped as they've rarely been which prevents adding a starter let alone star, no future picks from trading away those 4 vets, still owes one of their own picks, and finally has a more guard heavy unbalanced rotation than Neil ever had.

Were those posters applauding the February moves mistaken at that time and now proven to be wrong?
Were those posters in February just a loud minority, with most reasonable Blazers fans realizing then that this team was making poor moves?

I'm not sure. I do know I was furious with the February moves back at that time because it predictably and likely would directly lead to the type of situation the Blazers are in now. The problem is Cronin has set the talent stage for the years ahead; a below average NBA roster with a lack of future assets or means to improve. This isn't an exciting roster, team, or year(s) coming up to root for the Blazers.

Would love to hear a rational argument of why I'm wrong, as opposed to "Don't count out Dame" or "change for the sake of change" or "National media never gives us respect" or "its only been xxx hours into free agency" or "at least its not Neil" arguments.
 
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WesleyMatthews said:
It seems like the broad consensus here is these rankings are pretty fair, that the 2022-23 Blazers are clearly not a contending team, and possibly not even a playoff team. Maybe the Blazers get a few breaks and exceed expectations, but even winning one playoff series would be a massive overperformance.

That current lack of talent on this roster, lack of expectations, and lack of flexibility is directly linked to the deadline moves. Its linked to the lack of talent/assets the Blazers received back in trades, and was predictably the expected outcome to be at today of a rational fan back then.

It's a bit odd to me, as going back to the trade deadline there were all these Blazers fans positing here applauding the moves and how happy they are the Blazers were zagging from the Olshey direction. How there was all this "flexibility" the Blazers now had to improve, and how the Olshey assets had to be dumped right away basically regardless of the cost.

Fast forward 6 months and the team has one of the worst projections in the last decade, hard capped as they've rarely been which prevents adding a starter let alone star, no future picks from trading away those 4 vets, still owes one of their own picks, and finally has a more guard heavy unbalanced rotation than Neil ever had.

Were those posters applauding the February moves mistaken at that time and now proven to be wrong?
Were those posters in February just a loud minority, with most reasonable Blazers fans realizing then that this team was making poor moves?

I'm not sure. I do know I was furious with the February moves back at that time because it predictably and likely would directly lead to the type of situation the Blazers are in now. The problem is Cronin has set the talent stage for the years ahead; a below average NBA roster with a lack of future assets or means to improve. This isn't an exciting roster, team, or year(s) coming up to root for the Blazers.

Would love to hear a rational argument of why I'm wrong, as opposed to "Don't count out Dame" or "change for the sake of change" or "National media never gives us respect" or "its only been xxx hours into free agency" or "at least its not Neil" arguments.
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My only concern is not getting Randle and 11 from NY.

But if Sharpe really is that good it was the right call.
 
WesleyMatthews said:
It seems like the broad consensus here is these rankings are pretty fair, that the 2022-23 Blazers are clearly not a contending team, and possibly not even a playoff team. Maybe the Blazers get a few breaks and exceed expectations, but even winning one playoff series would be a massive overperformance.

That current lack of talent on this roster, lack of expectations, and lack of flexibility is directly linked to the deadline moves. Its linked to the lack of talent/assets the Blazers received back in trades, and was predictably the expected outcome to be at today of a rational fan back then.

It's a bit odd to me, as going back to the trade deadline there were all these Blazers fans positing here applauding the moves and how happy they are the Blazers were zagging from the Olshey direction. How there was all this "flexibility" the Blazers now had to improve, and how the Olshey assets had to be dumped right away basically regardless of the cost.

Fast forward 6 months and the team has one of the worst projections in the last decade, hard capped as they've rarely been which prevents adding a starter let alone star, no future picks from trading away those 4 vets, still owes one of their own picks, and finally has a more guard heavy unbalanced rotation than Neil ever had.

Were those posters applauding the February moves mistaken at that time and now proven to be wrong?
Were those posters in February just a loud minority, with most reasonable Blazers fans realizing then that this team was making poor moves?

I'm not sure. I do know I was furious with the February moves back at that time because it predictably and likely would directly lead to the type of situation the Blazers are in now. The problem is Cronin has set the talent stage for the years ahead; a below average NBA roster with a lack of future assets or means to improve. This isn't an exciting roster, team, or year(s) coming up to root for the Blazers.

Would love to hear a rational argument of why I'm wrong, as opposed to "Don't count out Dame" or "change for the sake of change" or "National media never gives us respect" or "its only been xxx hours into free agency" or "at least its not Neil" arguments.
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Someone explain to me what starter they could've gotten had they not been hard capped.

And I don't mean "well this trade machine idea worked and we got Jayson Tatum!11!"
 
julius said:
Someone explain to me what starter they could've gotten had they not been hard capped.

And I don't mean "well this trade machine idea worked and we got Jayson Tatum!11!"
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There were a number at the start of free agency, headlined by Kevin Durant.

Will there be more from now until the trade deadline? History would say likely yes, and teams that acquire starters or stars in those trades almost always take on additional salary, which the Blazers do not have the "flexibility" to do.
 
WesleyMatthews said:
There were a number at the start of free agency, headlined by Kevin Durant.

Will there be more from now until the trade deadline? History would say likely yes, and teams that acquire starters or stars in those trades almost always take on additional salary, which the Blazers do not have the "flexibility" to do.
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they were never going to get Durant.
 
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HailBlazers said:
Regardless how we got here I'm pumped to have Grant and a whole squad top to bottom that will be bought into Chauncey ball.
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Were you pumped when the team traded for Roco, Nance, and Powell?

I don't see how Grant has any significant difference. Maybe his play will be a bit better, but he will likely cost much more than any of those guys as well. Along with the huge contracts for Simons and Nurk bidding against nobody the Blazers are locked up against the cap with this ~#10 seed mediocre roster.
 
Now I get there are a group of Blazer optimists who are excited for the team just about every seasons almost regardless of how good or bad the moves are.

There is another group, the "Neil pitchfork crowd", that wants any change for the sake of change from the players and assets Neil had.

Outside those two extreme groups of Blazers fans I don't see how anyone can be happy with the overall direction of this roster the last 6 months.

The only potential bright spot is the Sharpe pick, him becoming a star is about the only chance this contend with Dame idea has of going anywhere. Not a great start 5 minutes into his play, I'm hoping he does something and shows some promise this season, although that would seem to be another "exceeds expectations" outcome.

If Sharpe doesn't bust out; I don't see how there is anything to be excited for with this franchise in the years ahead. Seems like a bit of a long shot having the entire future of the team resting on the gamble of an 18 year old project panning out.
 
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