If he has 25% chance of playing a whole season and we sign him for $8M, he's worth $32M if he played a whole season. I don't think he's worth $32M, and also, I think the 25% is way too high, especially if that estimate is for more than 1 year.
Only #1 spender Paul Allen would re-sign Oden. Even #2 Mark Cuban wouldn't do this. He let Steve Nash go.