To be fair though, that's the same knock Nowitzki and Rasheed have had for most of their careers. How often have those two been sidelined with serious injury? Compare that to more bruising power forwards like Randolph or Brand.
The injury point seems conceptually valid, but has it actually played out that way? Thinking about the top power forwards who have been adept at scoring around the rim somewhat recently (though all their points didn't come that way), I come up with Karl Malone, Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett, Amare Stoudemire. Amare Stoudemire, of course, had the big microfracture surgery, but that sort of thing just seems like the type of bad luck that can afflict any highly-athletic player, not something directly related to banging near the hoop (I could be wrong). Beyond that, they all seemed pretty durable.
Dirk Nowitzki is a far better shooter than Aldridge, essentially a seven-foot tall guard like Reggie Miller. 'Sheed was one of the very best defenders in the game. Aldridge has neither Nowitzki's perfect shooting nor Wallace's shut-down defense. Thus, I think to be a true All-Star/All-NBA type of player, Aldridge is going to have to reduce the variance in his offensive performance (and stabilize it at a high level) by having more ways to score.
Of course, you're right that Aldridge won't be asked to carry the team single-handedly, so it's not a disaster for the team if he never reaches a Chris Bosh type of level. But we should certainly hope he reaches as high a level as possible.
While I am no less optimistic about Oden then at the start of the season, he was never guaranteed. If he ends up not becoming a superstar, we'll need more production from other players to make up the difference. Roy and Aldridge both reaching star/superstar level would keep Portland safely entrenched at the top of the league.
