A damning picture

[maxiep]

Hope and change!

 

[tlongII]

It's Bush's fault!

 

[maxiep]

It should also be noted the labor participation rate is at its lowest point since 1981. If the labor force participation rate were at the same percentage as when President Obama took office, the U-3 unemployment rate would be 11.2% instead of 8.1%.

 

[3RA1N1AC]

lets ship all of our jobs overseas and then complain about unemployment

capitalism at its finest

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

Yawn.

 

[maxiep]

Facts are stubborn things. We've had other recessions before, and the one in 1981 was worse. So why has this one lingered? The bottom line is that the economic prescription to repair the damage of the real estate bubble popping has failed. It seems we've been given every excuse for non-performance by this administration except for the real one: you can't borrow and spend your way out of recession. Clint Eastwood was right: when someone doesn't do their job, you just have to let them go.

 

[Eastoff]

infographic is more accurate. ;]

 

[3RA1N1AC]

 

[MARIS61]

Damning to Bush, and to congress for stonewalling Obama's proposals.

Nothing more.

 

[MARIS61]

Clint Eastwood was right: when someone doesn't do their job, you just have to let them go.

That's why you will never see feeble-minded Eastwood invited to speak at another Republican Convention. Ever.

What a backfiring embarrassment that was.

 

[ABM]

Obama inherited a mess. My guess is it would take 12 years to get out of it. Bush II has been the worst president in history. What a travesty he created.

 

[maxiep]

Obama inherited a mess. My guess is it would take 12 years to get out of it. Bush II has been the worst president in history. What a travesty he created.

Reagan inherited a worse situation in 1981 and by 1984 had enormous growth that propelled him to carry 49 states.

 

[bluefrog]

Facts are stubborn things. We've had other recessions before, and the one in 1981 was worse. So why has this one lingered?

What measure are you using to argue the 1981 recession is worse than the current one? There's been a bigger drop in GDP in this recession.

I agree that Obama hasn't solved the problem but Romney doesn't have the answer either.

Cutting government spending will put more people out of work and reduce personal incomes.
Cutting the corporate tax rate will reduce government revenue, offsetting any helpful impact on the deficit from the government spending cuts.

Corporations have cash out the ass, profit margins are record high AND they're still not hiring

 

[3RA1N1AC]

What measure are you using to argue the 1981 recession is worse than the current one?

none of course

 

[Denny Crane]

http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/06/03/worse-than-1982/

By contrast, the early 1980s (blue) series shows two recessions in the three years before the downturn’s end. In a sense, the 1981-’82 recession damaged an economy already tender from the 1980 recession. Measured from the start of the first recession, the early 1980s recession lasted 34 months whereas this recession is so far “only” 17 months old.

The usual comparisons of the current recession to 1981-’82 are based on the worst two to four consecutive quarters, without regard for the other activity near and around that time. For example, the worst two quarters of this recession (so far) have seen G.D.P. fall 3.1 percent (from an index in the chart of 103.5 to 100.4) whereas the worst two consecutive quarters 1980-2 were late 1981 and early 1982, when real G.D.P. fell 2.9 percent.

Arguably, we would like to see real G.D.P. fall 3.1 percent rather than 2.9 percent in two quarters, as long as the former case had some other good growth quarters. The chart illustrates this idea: the red series (late 2000s) is consistently above the blue series (early 1980s) despite the fact that the red series has the greatest two-quarter descent.

...

While the job losses, foreclosures, stock declines and other casualties of the current recession have been very painful, substantially more bad economic news is needed to make this recession worse than the downturns of 1980-’82, at least in G.D.P. term

 

[BLAZER PROPHET]

Companies are scared of Obama and how he has punitively dealt with various sectors of the economy since becoming President. They are bulging with cash but are afraid to hire. When GM is torn away from the bond holders, given to a union along with a few hundred billion for union coffers then it scares the daylights out of all business. I know our parent company is waiting on the sidelines for a more stable President before making any moves.

 

[maxiep]

What measure are you using to argue the 1981 recession is worse than the current one? There's been a bigger drop in GDP in this recession.

I agree that Obama hasn't solved the problem but Romney doesn't have the answer either.

Cutting government spending will put more people out of work and reduce personal incomes.
Cutting the corporate tax rate will reduce government revenue, offsetting any helpful impact on the deficit from the government spending cuts.

Corporations have cash out the ass, profit margins are record high AND they're still not hiring

Denny addressed the 81-82 recession (the one with the closest parallel at the beginning of President Obama's term) and BP addressed why corporations aren't hiring. What Denny didn't address was inflation and interest rates in the 81-82 recession which made investing by companies even more daunting.

There is a pattern to recessions if the market is allowed to correct it: the deeper the recession, the more robust the comeback. Our "recovery" has been like the piss stream of an old man with a massively enlarged prostate and now we're likely entering yet another recession. If we don't make a policy course correction, we'll likely see a reliving of the 1930s.

 

[3RA1N1AC]

i actually think the conservative flocks ideas are pretty cutting edge, ship our jobs overseas until we are a 3rd world country, that way businesses will start using our labor again, and pay us 3 bucks a day. we will be so destitute at that point im sure most will welcome it

sneaky good

 

[maxiep]

i actually think the conservative flocks ideas are pretty cutting edge, ship our jobs overseas until we are a 3rd world country, that way businesses will start using our labor again, and pay us 3 bucks a day. we will be so destitute at that point im sure most will welcome it

sneaky good

Do you know what this country's competitive advantage is? It's not manufacturing. It's not services. It's not finance. It's innovation. Let the rest of the world have the jobs of the past; we'll innovate the jobs of the future. We don't know what they'll be, but when you leave the American people in charge of their own future, that future will be bright.

 

[3RA1N1AC]

Do you know what this country's competitive advantage is? It's not manufacturing. It's not services. It's not finance. It's innovation. Let the rest of the world have the jobs of the past; we'll innovate the jobs of the future. We don't know what they'll be, but when you leave the American people in charge of their own future, that future will be bright.

and what gives us this magical advantage pray tell? our education system?

 

[maxiep]

and what gives us this magical advantage pray tell? our education system?

It's cultural. We're a country unique in the world. Other than slaves, everyone else's ancestors came here looking for a better life. We're constantly being renewed by immigrants who come for the same reason. We're like the Borg in Star Trek; we come to this country unique, but blend the best of every culture to create an American one. There's a dynamism in this country that doesn't exist anywhere else. In no other country is there a feeling of unlimited potential if you're willing to work for it.

 

[3RA1N1AC]

our advantage is a magical idea that means nothing? because we have alot of immigrants means america is innovative? it really sounds like a load of shit, maybe you should run for office though, its a nice story i mean are you saying that americans are born with the "innovation gene"?

are we even in the top 20 education wise anymore? because i would say that that would be more indicative of innovation than immigrants

 

[maxiep]

our advantage is a magical idea that means nothing? because we have alot of immigrants means america is innovative? it really sounds like a load of shit, maybe you should run for office though, its a nice story i mean are you saying that americans are born with the "innovation gene"?

are we even in the top 20 education wise anymore? because i would say that that would be more indicative of innovation than immigrants

What's past is prologue when it comes to the American character. We lost the steel industry, we dominated the computer hardware industry. We lost computer hardware, we dominated computer software. Computer software topped out and we exploited the internet. We innovate.

Our primary and secondary education are subpar, but our university system is still the best in the world.

 

[3RA1N1AC]

if our primary and secondary education systems were better, would it be fair to say we would "innovate" more? if there is no reason you see other than "we innovate" to why we innovate, couldnt it be considered an anomaly, and possibly fleeting? i just see no logical reason to expect it to continue if there is no reason for it.

 

[maxiep]

if our primary and secondary education systems were better, would it be fair to say we would "innovate" more? if there is no reason you see other than "we innovate" to why we innovate, couldnt it be considered an anomaly, and possibly fleeting? i just see no logical reason to expect it to continue if there is no reason for it.

Because it's not our educational system; it's the culture of possibility. We're encouraged by our culture to think differently; to see opportunity and to build a better mousetrap. It doesn't necessarily take formal education; it takes guts, hustle and faith. We have an entrepreneurial culture.

 

[VanillaGorilla]

Because it's not our educational system; it's the culture of possibility. We're encouraged by our culture to think differently; to see opportunity and to build a better mousetrap. It doesn't necessarily take formal education; it takes guts, hustle and faith. We have an entrepreneurial culture.

I think most European countries are encouraged to think more differently than we are. You're talking about the future, which means my generation will be a big part of it. I don't know what it was like to be 20 in the 70s, 80s, or 90s, but I'm fairly certain it's not heading in a good direction. American culture is deteriorating, and it's due in part to the internet and social media and all that. Obviously there are still a lot of people who are smart, motivated, and innovative, but I think American culture as a whole is on the decline.

 

[barfo]

It's cultural. We're a country unique in the world. Other than slaves, everyone else's ancestors came here looking for a better life.

Native Americans?

We're constantly being renewed by immigrants who come for the same reason. We're like the Borg in Star Trek; we come to this country unique, but blend the best of every culture to create an American one. There's a dynamism in this country that doesn't exist anywhere else. In no other country is there a feeling of unlimited potential if you're willing to work for it.

Damn, we're the Borg. There's some high praise, all right.

barfo

 

[Denny Crane]

Obama's going to win. Who cares how fucked up things will become. Resistance is futile.

 

[ABM]

Obama's going to win. Who cares how fucked up things will become. Resistance is futile.

I'm gonna resort to playing the violin. At least the music will sound good.

 

[Denny Crane]

Denny addressed the 81-82 recession (the one with the closest parallel at the beginning of President Obama's term) and BP addressed why corporations aren't hiring. What Denny didn't address was inflation and interest rates in the 81-82 recession which made investing by companies even more daunting.

There is a pattern to recessions if the market is allowed to correct it: the deeper the recession, the more robust the comeback. Our "recovery" has been like the piss stream of an old man with a massively enlarged prostate and now we're likely entering yet another recession. If we don't make a policy course correction, we'll likely see a reliving of the 1930s.

Exactly.

What I don't understand is why people insist that doing "X" will work (X is Keynesian stimulus) when it's demonstrable it doesn't. They insist on repeating the mistakes of the past.

The whole point behind the jobs projection graph and Obama's "promise" about lower unemployment than we actually saw is that it is empirical evidence that the plan did not work as intended. So we saw the plan did not work as intended in the 30s, now we have seen it did not work during Obama's first term. Guys like Krugman wanted to spend even more than the $800B on stimulus, but the effect would have flattened and lengthened the recovery even more. Krugman predicted hyperinflation due to Reagan's fiscal policies, and he wasn't right about that, either - in fact the opposite was true; the inflation rate fell by 90%+.

Now bluefrog posted that "Cutting govt. spending will put more people out of work and reduce incomes." It doesn't have to put people out of work. The feds alone spend about $15K per man/woman/child in the nation and simply doesn't employ but a tiny fraction of the workforce.

That said, unemployment numbers need to be fully understood. Full employment does not mean 0% unemployment. There are always going to be some fraction of the workforce between jobs, so you end up with an optimistic 3% possible minimum or a realistic 4% minimum unemployment rate.

When unemployment hits 8%, Obama and his ilk see 4% of the people who need 99 weeks of unemployment benefits. 99 weeks is going to be the minimum length of the flattening of the recovery curve - fully 1% of that 8% unemployed, at least, will take the benefits and not seek employment.

The better way to look at the 8% is you have 8% of the workforce between jobs. Maybe 8-23 weeks of unemployment benefits to tide them over.

"But there are no jobs!" is a bogus claim. Of course there are jobs, but people have to be willing to work them. That's not the half of it, though. There's no reason to assume that people have to be employed by someone else.

When this recession started, there were all sorts of empty storefronts in my neighborhood. That is an opportunity, not a sign of doom. The landlords were willing to deal, and many would do free or low rent in exchange for a % of the take.

When faced with the dot bomb bubble bursting and 85,000 lost jobs in Silicon Valley alone, people did not panic as unemployment went up by 25%. They hung tight and formed businesses in their garages, many of those succeeded. Without the 99 weeks, they had to.

Which boils down to this truth: people are resourceful and when their backs are against the wall they find a way to make it. For the most part. Have faith in them instead of having so little you expect they can't find something productive to do.