A Long Term Plan

[Nikolokolus]

The part of the strategy that was centered around RLEC failed. I don't understand how that relates to all of the other moves KP made. So no, I don't think they should scrap the whole thing.

In fact, I haven't even said that the team is bad right now. They are a good team without making a single move. However, I have a hard time seeing the current incarnation winning a title. It appears that KP believes they can.

If KP is correct then I will never have been more happy to be wrong.

About the cap space. I mentioned above that I think it is foolish to believe KP will do more with that then he did with RLEC. He has less value to work with, though it is more flexible.

I will go on the record as saying I hope KP proves me horribly wrong, pulls a fantastic deal out of his hat and makes me eat my words.

You do realize that KP can make lopsided trades this summer with the cap space he's created don't you? Why don't you hold off on the whole "he failed" angle until we see what happens in the next couple of months.

 

[LittleAlex]

You do realize that KP can make lopsided trades this summer with the cap space he's created don't you? Why don't you hold off on the whole "he failed" angle until we see what happens in the next couple of months.

Of course he can. I am saying he won't for the very same reasons nothing got done at the deadline. Namely, nothing he feels is worth dealing for will be available and he feels the players he has are worth far more then they actually are.

Though it may seem possible, it is really unlikely a team will let a valuable player go for nothing. The only team in dire straights enough to do so is New Orleans. The only player Portland would actually want off of that team, Paul, is the one player that is completely untouchable.

It mystifies me why anyone would feel differently. Do you really think Memphis is going to just give us Conelly? Do you think Toronto would just give us Jose? Much has been made of teams needed to get under the tax limit, but those teams are going to give their best players away for nothing.

It is far, far more likely that Portland doesn't make a trade that makes an immediate impact next year. Portland may very well move way up in the draft. Portland may very well trade for a guy who is still a couple of years away from being a contributor. Neither of these will help the team next year.

 

[LameR]

It mystifies me why anyone would feel differently. Do you really think Memphis is going to just give us Conelly? Do you think Toronto would just give us Jose? Much has been made of teams needed to get under the tax limit, but those teams are going to give their best players away for nothing.

It's hard to take what you're saying seriously when you can't spell Conley correctly. Just pointing that out.

Back to what you were talking about. I think you're right in that KP overrates some of our guys a bit, but I also think part of the reason he's done so in the past may have been partially because he wanted to see what type of growth he could get out of them while our window for championships still wasn't open. Now that it's pretty obvious Roy and Aldridge need support immediately if this team wants to contend in the next year or two rather than waiting a bit longer for development that may not happen, I think KP is smart enough to realize that he either needs to get them help, or figure out who on this roster can produce now (Rudy, hopefully Greg and maybe a bit more from Bayless next year).

 

[LittleAlex]

It's hard to take what you're saying seriously when you can't spell Conley correctly. Just pointing that out.

Back to what you were talking about. I think you're right in that KP overrates some of our guys a bit, but I also think part of the reason he's done so in the past may have been partially because he wanted to see what type of growth he could get out of them while our window for championships still wasn't open. Now that it's pretty obvious Roy and Aldridge need support immediately if this team wants to contend in the next year or two rather than waiting a bit longer for development that may not happen, I think KP is smart enough to realize that he either needs to get them help, or figure out who on this roster can produce now (Rudy, hopefully Greg and maybe a bit more from Bayless next year).

Do you mean to tell me I misspelled a last name, where the origin could be from damn near any country in the world? Man do I feel...nothing at all.

So, everyone thinks that KP is going to do something big that involves an established star. Fair enough. Prove it.

Thus far all of the responses are calling into question my belief that KP will not make any big time move. I have laid out all of my reasons. No one here has said why they believe he will do a deal.

It IS obvious that Roy and LA need some help. Why does that mean KP will do something he has never done before? By that I mean make a deal outside of the draft that brings in an established impact player. Give me whatever reasons you all have that hope, since I don't see it.

Clearly there must be some reason to believe otherwise since I am in minority. Instead of telling me why I am wrong, tell me why you are right.

 

[BClutch]

So, everyone thinks that KP is going to do something big that involves an established star. Fair enough. Prove it.

Thus far all of the responses are calling into question my belief that KP will not make any big time move. I have laid out all of my reasons. No one here has said why they believe he will do a deal.

It IS obvious that Roy and LA need some help. Why does that mean KP will do something he has never done before? By that I mean make a deal outside of the draft that brings in an established impact player. Give me whatever reasons you all have that hope, since I don't see it.

Clearly there must be some reason to believe otherwise since I am in minority. Instead of telling me why I am wrong, tell me why you are right.

To clarify I think he's going to make moves for cap space at the draft, then find the best deal possible during the season, likely at the trade deadline.

-I think he'll do this because the reason that has been stated in the past for him not making mid season deals is it messes up chemistry and he likes seeing and evaluating what he has for a full season. One of those reasons won't be valid if he has essentially the same team from last season. Also team chemistry will likely be very strongly established for the same reason next season. A mid season trade would likely be less disruptive.

-The main reason I think the blazers will do this is because this is when the blazers will be the most flexible to make a move for the duration of this championship run. If they are going to make a big deal this is when they have the most ability to do it.

-Another reason is that lopsided trades are most likely to happen near the trade deadline, especially when cap space is involved due to it getting calculated for the cap based on the team you have at the end of the season. Teams will be more likely to be desperate for cap relief, and more willing to make a deal. A team isn't going to make a move that's obviously to their disadvantage when they still have time to wait and see if a better opportunity comes along.

That's all I got.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Of course he can. I am saying he won't for the very same reasons nothing got done at the deadline. Namely, nothing he feels is worth dealing for will be available and he feels the players he has are worth far more then they actually are.

Though it may seem possible, it is really unlikely a team will let a valuable player go for nothing. The only team in dire straights enough to do so is New Orleans. The only player Portland would actually want off of that team, Paul, is the one player that is completely untouchable.

It mystifies me why anyone would feel differently. Do you really think Memphis is going to just give us Conelly? Do you think Toronto would just give us Jose? Much has been made of teams needed to get under the tax limit, but those teams are going to give their best players away for nothing.

It is far, far more likely that Portland doesn't make a trade that makes an immediate impact next year. Portland may very well move way up in the draft. Portland may very well trade for a guy who is still a couple of years away from being a contributor. Neither of these will help the team next year.

I don't know what is going to happen and neither do you ... furthermore you make it sound like it's simply impossible to make impact trades in the NBA or that KP is somehow massively risk averse or "in love" with his whole roster when there just isn't enough evidence to say it's one way or another.

This is the offseason we've all been waiting for for a couple of years now (the first season he was going to have any shot at cap room); this is where we find out just what KP is made of and to prejudge anything before it's actually happened just seems incredibly short sighted -- whether that is through trades or free agent signings to round out the roster.

 

[LittleAlex]

I don't know what is going to happen and neither do you ... furthermore you make it sound like it's simply impossible to make impact trades in the NBA or that KP is somehow massively risk averse or "in love" with his whole roster when there just isn't enough evidence to say it's one way or another.

This is the offseason we've all been waiting for for a couple of years now (the first season he was going to have any shot at cap room); this is where we find out just what KP is made of and to prejudge anything before it's actually happened just seems incredibly short sighted -- whether that is through trades or free agent signings to round out the roster.

It isn't impossible to make impact trades. It IS unlikely. They don't happen very often for good reason. In order to make a true impact deal, Portland is going to have to give up someone they really want to keep. I am talking about guys like LA, Rudy, Batum and Oden here. Outlaw, Blake, Martell, Sergio and like will be filler at best in any kind of real impact trade. I am assuming B-Roy is untouchable, with Oden next in line, LA, Batum then Rudy.

I do believe KP is risk averse. I haven't seen anything to make me believe otherwise.

The evidence I do have is historical in nature. Namely, KP has NEVER done such a deal before. This is only 4 years of history, but I believe this years trade deadline was telling.

This most certainly is the offseason we have all been waiting for. This summer is probably the last in quite a while where the team has enough flexibility to make a big deal. As much as I wish Portland would make a deal, I don't believe they will. Mostly because any deal on this level would require LA be moved. That's risky in the extreme. I don't think KP would make a deal like that.