A question for our gambler/stat guys and gals

[Dougnsalem]

Ok, this isn't going to be a debate about who should be traded, and why. Quick question for the general consensus.....

We have the trade deadline coming up. When do you think the best odds of the Blazers winning the championship are going to be? I mean, when would be the best time to put some money down on them? Before the trade deadline? After?

Ya know, my income has doubled since the bottle deposit went up to 10 cents a can. I be like.....



We're gonna drop some bucks on the Blazers winning it all. Maybe a grand. Timing. When would be best, is my question....

 

[Dougnsalem]

And..... I ask it here, since I know this is the most knowledgeable site concerning the Blazers.

You posters know your shit, even when you are annoying as hell; with all of your bitching at each other!!!!! Come on, let's get along.....

 

[PtldPlatypus]

We're gonna drop some bucks on the Blazers winning it all. Maybe a grand. Timing. When would be best, is my question....

Not this season.

If you insist on putting money down on them for this year, I'd say now is as good a time as any. If they have any prayer of contending, pieces are still going to have to fall into place (Nurk/Zach returning, another trade for a vet role player), and anything that will improve the Blazers' chances will only lower your (clearly inevitable) payout.

 

[BrianFromWA]

Not this season.

If you insist on putting money down on them for this year, I'd say now is as good a time as any. If they have any prayer of contending, pieces are still going to have to fall into place (Nurk/Zach returning, another trade for a vet role player), and anything that will improve the Blazers' chances will only lower your (clearly inevitable) payout.

I'd say ^this, but also the piece that could probably net you the best is to wait until after the Finals but before the draft and free agency and put down a Futures bet on the 2021 Finals. IIRC, most books won't let you go more than 364 days in the future, and depending on how much we shock the world this post-season you'll be able to get good odds and hedge against us picking up a great pick or doing a trade or signing during free agency. Plus, next year we'll have Dame/CJ/Hood/Collins/Nurk all healthy-ish and under contract, but also have the ability to have some combo of Ant/Melo/Whiteside/draft pick/FA signing/Ariza/traded player filling that out. That's not horrible even if nothing changes, and could be really good.

For instance:
If we miss the playoffs, most books will likely look at the overall NBA picture and believe that most bettors will say that a (say) 36-win team with a #14 pick coming and not much cap space will not be great the next year, and you'll have good odds.
If we make the 8-seed and get housed, even if Nurk and Collins come back and play well, they'll believe most bettors will think the same thing, except change "36" for "43" and "#14 pick" for "#17".
If we somehow make a run like last year's to the WCF, we'll still be considered a longshot to make it back, so it won't be that much of a hit to the odds.
If we win this year, they won't believe we can repeat. You're good!

 

[Mediocre Man]

I personally think you'd be better off making a futures bet for next year.

 

[Strenuus]

Next season.

Look, Dame is on a stretch rarely seen in the NBA, but it's just that... a stretch.

Unless he magically finds it twice in the season (Never doubt Dame, though) their title chances are next year. Especially if Ariza comes back.

 

[blazerfan11]

I'd say ^this, but also the piece that could probably net you the best is to wait until after the Finals but before the draft and free agency and put down a Futures bet on the 2021 Finals. IIRC, most books won't let you go more than 364 days in the future, and depending on how much we shock the world this post-season you'll be able to get good odds and hedge against us picking up a great pick or doing a trade or signing during free agency. Plus, next year we'll have Dame/CJ/Hood/Collins/Nurk all healthy-ish and under contract, but also have the ability to have some combo of Ant/Melo/Whiteside/draft pick/FA signing/Ariza/traded player filling that out. That's not horrible even if nothing changes, and could be really good.

For instance:
If we miss the playoffs, most books will likely look at the overall NBA picture and believe that most bettors will say that a (say) 36-win team with a #14 pick coming and not much cap space will not be great the next year, and you'll have good odds.
If we make the 8-seed and get housed, even if Nurk and Collins come back and play well, they'll believe most bettors will think the same thing, except change "36" for "43" and "#14 pick" for "#17".
If we somehow make a run like last year's to the WCF, we'll still be considered a longshot to make it back, so it won't be that much of a hit to the odds.
If we win this year, they won't believe we can repeat. You're good!

If we win this year, won't the odds for winning next season be much much better than right now for winning this year? (Even if we aren't the favorite).
For example what are the odds that we win this season compared to the third favored team at the moment.
Also, since the Blazers did make a good run last season, what were the odds at the beginning of the season that they would win it all, compared to what they are now?

 

[Hoopguru]

Ok, this isn't going to be a debate about who should be traded, and why. Quick question for the general consensus.....

We have the trade deadline coming up. When do you think the best odds of the Blazers winning the championship are going to be? I mean, when would be the best time to put some money down on them? Before the trade deadline? After?

Ya know, my income has doubled since the bottle deposit went up to 10 cents a can. I be like.....



We're gonna drop some bucks on the Blazers winning it all. Maybe a grand. Timing. When would be best, is my question....

Now...let it roll Cincinnati!

 

[SlyPokerDog]

 

[BrianFromWA]

If we win this year, won't the odds for winning next season be much much better than right now for winning this year? (Even if we aren't the favorite).

I was being slightly tongue-in-cheek for that, as our success for getting to WCF last year was rewarded in the lines by a -7 to our win total over/under and we're usually underrated nationally. But yeah, you'd expect that if we won the 'ship our Future odds would be a bit lower.

Also, since the Blazers did make a good run last season, what were the odds at the beginning of the season that they would win it all, compared to what they are now?

It's interesting, because after making the WCF (so, theoretically, being one of the 4 best teams?) our odds this summer were 10th...not a ton of respect. Now, that's played out so far with 2 major injuries outside of Nurk, but they didn't know that in July.

LAC 3/1
Mil 9/2
LAL 5/1
Phi 8/1
GS, Hou 12/1
Den, Uta 14/1
Bos 25/1
Por 30/1
Bkn, Ind, Mia 40/1
Dal, SAS 50/1
Tor, Sac 80/1
OKC, Orl 100/1
NO, NYK, Atl, Chi 200/1
Det, Min, Mem, Phx 300/1
Cha, Wsh, Cle 1000/1

 

[Neil O. Shyster]

Blazers currently +6000 on Oregon Lottery Scoreboard app... so $10 bet can win $600. Was at +8000 after Lakers win, and will probably keep going down as Blazers secure a playoff spot.

 

[e_blazer]

View attachment 29753

$5.00? That's quite a bit of Kibble for a dog.

 

[SlyPokerDog]

$5.00? That's quite a bit of Kibble for a dog.

It was a free $5 to open their new sports book.

 

[e_blazer]

It was a free $5 to open their new sports book.

That's very sly of you to get in on that.

 

[Shaboid]

It was a free $5 to open their new sports book.

Serious question. How often do you actually play poker?

 

[SlyPokerDog]

Serious question. How often do you actually play poker?

About once every 2 months I'll log some table time at Chinook Winds or Spirit Mountain.

 

[Shaboid]

About once every 2 months I'll log some table time at Chinook Winds or Spirit Mountain.

So more like SlyFakerDog, got it.

 

[SlyPokerDog]

So more like SlyFakerDog, got it.

Ummmmm... sure.

 

[hoopsjock]

About once every 2 months I'll log some table time at Chinook Winds or Spirit Mountain.

We should still organize a forum poker game!

 

[Shaboid]

Ummmmm... sure.

just messing with you, pup

 

[Dougnsalem]

Good stuff going on here guys. I massively appreciate the input. Got some family stuff going on at the moment. I'll reply to everything in a bit.....

 

[Shaboid]

Good stuff going on here guys. I massively appreciate the input. Got some family stuff going on at the moment. I'll reply to everything in a bit.....

Translation:

"Mom just yelled from upstairs that the pizza rolls are ready, give me a minute"

 

[SharpesTriumph]

How about bet to win the west?

They still got great odds. Then if they make the conference finals put a small bet on Blazers to lose that series, so you guaranteed some profit either way.

Blazers lose in WCF you make a couple bucks.
Blazers win WCF you make even more.
Blazers win finals who fucking cares about bets.

 

[PDXFonz]

Ok, this isn't going to be a debate about who should be traded, and why. Quick question for the general consensus.....

We have the trade deadline coming up. When do you think the best odds of the Blazers winning the championship are going to be? I mean, when would be the best time to put some money down on them? Before the trade deadline? After?

Ya know, my income has doubled since the bottle deposit went up to 10 cents a can. I be like.....



We're gonna drop some bucks on the Blazers winning it all. Maybe a grand. Timing. When would be best, is my question....

I think it’s already passed. Before this current streak, about a week after Rodney went down up until 2 weeks ago. We are already down -500 from +6500 to +6000 in the last week. If we win this game tonight we might see the odds on us winning increase yet again.

That being said the odds of us winning a championship are still favorable. Even biased removed 60x your bet on the Blazers to win a championship is still an intriguing bet.

I’m going to hope that the odds don’t change much before all-star break. Post all-star it’s either the odds we win increase; or they decrease and at that point maybe you don’t place the bet.

TLDR- Every day from here on out I predict the Blazers to continue their play and the payout rate to decrease until it evens out.
Denver currently +1800 fwiw

 

[PDXFonz]

Not sure this loss will change the odds too much. Maybe +6150 if anything.

 

[PHXBlazer1]

View attachment 29753

Chinook Winds has a sports book????!!!

 

[SlyPokerDog]

Chinook Winds has a sports book????!!!

Just opened a couple of months ago.

 

[PDXFonz]

+7100 odds on us winning it now (Sportsbook)- could be as favorable as you will see from here on out.

Depends how you see us playing going forward. I for one think we will keep up this hot streak as it seems like these guys are starting to come together and figure out how to play as a collective whole.

 

[PDXFonz]

We should still organize a forum poker game!

Would be interesting!

 

[PDXFonz]

FWIW if I put money down on Blazers winning which I think I will do; I’m going to hedge Champs/Western Champs/Bucks as champs

Because honestly I think the Bucks can win it this year.
Ex:
$250 on MIL pays out $1000
$250 on POR pays out $18,000
$500 on POR to win west pays out $16,000

Obviously not the same as
$1000 on POR paying out $72,000; but if we won it all who would complain about not making an extra 28k when you already won 34k and have a championship to celebrate!