A slow rebuild?

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NOVoodoo said:
Why would you want to sign a talented veteran?

Signing a talented veteran to a work in progress can bring you to the playoffs, but it's not going to win you anything of significance. The way the league is these days is to go big or go home, so a team like the Blazers needs to follow up on the home-run they hit with Lillard by bringing in other young talent through trades and the draft.

You have to wonder how Lillard and Aldridge fit together long term. I know that Aldridge is only a few years older than Lillard, but in terms of their development and NBA miles, Aldridge's best years are behind him and Lillard's are ahead. Wouldn't it make more sense to shift the benchmark from making the playoffs to making the Finals, trade Aldridge for some younger assets, and bolster the rebuilding process with a core that's not heading to a decade of mediocrity?
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I've always been a 'build through the draft' guy, and I agree with your sentiment of letting the young guys learn while the team is crap until they're not (thanks to future lottery additions), but I think the simple answer to "Why would you want to sign a talented veteran?" is that - at least as I understand things - this is the final offseason that we'll have cap room. After that, Nic's big contract #s hit and we're back to getting creative with Exceptions.

While "talented veterans" certainly DO make teams better (again, I certainly see the thought of "they'll make us enough better to become mediocre but never great") I think the better way to look at this strategy is simply as a 'use-it-or-lose-it' asset. If you don't use it, it literally evaporates, if you do, you can always trade said player if things aren't working out.

The other comment that I'd make is that I'm not entirely sold on the fact that we'll need that many more years to rebuild. Aldridge is still young enough to play a significant role in a few years, Lillard and Batum are looking like they'll be good/great for us for a long time. From there Leonard and Barton look likely to play a sizable role moving forward and Freeland and Claver hold promise, and Matthews may be involved as well...

By my count, that leaves us needing a backup PG, possibly another SG, possibly another SF, and another big or two. Factor in another lotto pick this year, assume that one or two of the above continue to develop and add a solid piece to the core via FA and that's a good young roster moving forward and one where, even WITHOUT using that cap room, could likely contend for the playoffs (and screw our lotto chances) in the not too distant future. NOT using our cap room would only set us back, it would seem...
 
Nikolokolus said:
LOL. actually the top 7 pick is the thing I'm most sure of with this team. Health is starting to be an issue with the starters, plus Lillard is playing a ton of minutes which means the rookie wall could be a very real thing for him in the near future. At some point you have to think Stotts realizes where the team is headed and focuses more on development minutes for guys like Freeland, Claver, Barton and Leonard - development and seeing if they can contribute or not down the line or not.
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I wouldn't be so sure. If we continue to have injuries then you are dead on. But I am not so sure Stotts feels that he has the luxury of tanking the season with his past head coaching resume. This is his last chance to prove he deserves a HC position. Plus after last year I doubt Wes, Batum, and LMA will quit so easily. Lillard will hit a wall, but he will be OK.

But the biggest factor is the 10 other shitty teams in this league. Are you sure they won't go into development mode too?
 
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I seriously doubt Olshey plans to fire Stotts because they don't make the playoffs or don't hit 30 wins. He hired the guy knowing that the roster was mostly a shambles outside of the top 5 guys. If coach and GM are on the same page (and they should be considering that Stotts is Olshey's guy) then at some point it's not outside the realm of possibility that Olshey will direct him to play the youngins.

As for the other ten "shitty" teams, there aren't many I would call definitively worse and most of them appear to have at least a little more NBA caliber depth on their bench.

The Blazers' margin for success are razor thin, one or two key injuries to the starters or if Lillard misses any time and this team is sunk not matter if they actively tank or not.
 
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I don't think Stotts get fired for the results of this season unless he loses his players, which is unlikely in his first year.

The question is if/when the Blazers become a really good team, is Stotts the coach for that team. So far he hasn't seem to do anything special or terribly bad. This could be a weed out time peroid for both players and the coach.


If Nate was coach right now, imagine the posts there would be when it comes to Barton, Freeland and Leonard's development and minutes.
 
NOVoodoo said:
That may have been a bit harsh, and it's pretty hard to peg a guy's "prime" when they're in their late 20's, but "age" has also taken on a new meaning with Aldridge's generation of early entries. The reality is that he's a seventh year, 6'11" stick figure. He could be a freak of nature, play til his late 30's, and have incredible career longevity, but isn't it more likely that he's currently at or approaching his prime, whereas Lillard is just starting to develop as a pro?
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Well he is unlike many in his caliber. His first 3 seasons; his playing time wasn't much of any significance. Then for the first part of his career it was get Roy the ball and move out of his way and be ready for a open 20 footer. Aldridge played very soft up until the last three years. So I believe he is more durable than many in here think; especially since most the time he missed games was from his irregular heart; which was already fixed.
 
Nikolokolus said:
I seriously doubt Olshey plans to fire Stotts because they don't make the playoffs or don't hit 30 wins. He hired the guy knowing that the roster was mostly a shambles outside of the top 5 guys. If coach and GM are on the same page (and they should be considering that Stotts is Olshey's guy) then at some point it's not outside the realm of possibility that Olshey will direct him to play the youngins.

As for the other ten "shitty" teams, there aren't many I would call definitively worse and most of them appear to have at least a little more NBA caliber depth on their bench.

The Blazers' margin for success are razor thin, one or two key injuries to the starters or if Lillard misses any time and this team is sunk not matter if they actively tank or not.
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I don't think Olshey would either, but if I am Stotts, I don't take the chance. I coach to win every game.

I agree the margin for success is razor thin, but it also is for Orlando Charlotte Sacramento Phoenix Detroit New Orleans Cleveland Toronto Washington Houston, Minnesota...if any of these teams lose two starters....they could fold. We see it every year from a team we do not expect it from.

Don't get me wrong I would not mind seeing a top draft pick for this team, but I am just not counting on it.
 
Pinwheel1 said:
I don't think Olshey would either, but if I am Stotts, I don't take the chance. I coach to win every game.

I agree the margin for success is razor thin, but it also is for Orlando Charlotte Sacramento Phoenix Detroit New Orleans Cleveland Toronto Washington Houston, Minnesota...if any of these teams lose two starters....they could fold. We see it every year from a team we do not expect it from.

Don't get me wrong I would not mind seeing a top draft pick for this team, but I am just not counting on it.
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Neil is his boss, if Olshey directs him to play the younger guys at some point he will.
 
Nikolokolus said:
Neil is his boss, if Olshey directs him to play the younger guys at some point he will.
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I think our younger guys will get their chance to develop regardless. They are going to get their minutes as we have very little choice than to play them.

Maybe in April they will throw in the towel and sit LMA, Batum, and Wes like last year, but I doubt Paul will sit behind the basket to watch us get blown out every night. I get that we are not very good. But my point is depending on the injury bug, we could easily battle for the 11th or 12th spot. Again I just wouldn't count on the 6-7th pick just yet.
 
Turn those 4 OT wins into coin flips and what is this team's record? Even at full strength this team either wins by a nose hair or they tend to get blown out and our strength of schedule has been pretty soft so far. This does not appear to be a team battling for a fringe playoff spot.
 
Nikolokolus said:
Turn those 4 OT wins into coin flips and what is this team's record? Even at full strength this team either wins by a nose hair or they tend to get blown out and our strength of schedule has been pretty soft so far. This does not appear to be a team battling for a fringe playoff spot.
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Wouldn't say our strength of schedule is soft by any stretch.

OKC, Houston x2, Dallas, Clippers, SAS, Atlanta, Chicago, Brooklyn, and Indiana are all winning ballclubs. They had the longest road trip just recently to top it off. They have 12 road games to 9 home.

I'm not saying they are playoff bound or anything; but they have played a pretty touch quarter season so far.
 
magnifier661 said:
Wouldn't say our strength of schedule is soft by any stretch.

OKC, Houston x2, Dallas, Clippers, SAS, Atlanta, Chicago, Brooklyn, and Indiana are all winning ballclubs. They had the longest road trip just recently to top it off. They have 12 road games to 9 home.

I'm not saying they are playoff bound or anything; but they have played a pretty touch quarter season so far.
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Opponent winning percentages:
Overall: .457
Last ten games: .351

That's soft
 
Nikolokolus said:
Opponent winning percentages:
Overall: .457
Last ten games: .351

That's soft
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No that's because Cleveland (.227), Washington (0.167) and Toronto (0.182) are terrible records. Take them out and it's much tougher. That is only 3 games out of 21 games (14.28%). That accounts for at least 10% deduction of the overall %.
 
Nikolokolus said:
Turn those 4 OT wins into coin flips and what is this team's record? Even at full strength this team either wins by a nose hair or they tend to get blown out and our strength of schedule has been pretty soft so far. This does not appear to be a team battling for a fringe playoff spot.
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In the end we may not be battling for a playoff spot. That's why I said 11th or 12th pick in the lottery, and not 13th or 14th. I can see 1-2 teams in the west barely missing the playoffs yet still having separation from the rest of the pack below them.
 
magnifier661 said:
No that's because Cleveland (.227), Washington (0.167) and Toronto (0.182) are terrible records. Take them out and it's much tougher. That is only 3 games out of 21 games (14.28%). That accounts for at least 10% deduction of the overall %.
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You're cherry picking ... and doing it poorly. remember that part where we lost to Washington?
 
Nikolokolus said:
You're cherry picking ... and doing it poorly. remember that part where we lost to Washington?
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Absolutely remembered. That still doesn't make the scedule any easier. We still faced teams with those same records. And I am not arguing that we will be the end record as you claim. I am just debating on your take of it being soft.
 
magnifier661 said:
Absolutely remembered. That still doesn't make the scedule any easier. We still faced teams with those same records. And I am not arguing that we will be the end record as you claim. I am just debating on your take of it being soft.
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It's just simple math.
 
Fez Hammersticks said:
Cody Zeller
Kostas Papaoaeifosfaos;ihfeads;ifheaife
Jarrett Jack - FA
Tyreke Evans - FA: Big risk, high reward. Let him prove himself as a core player.

.
And we're vastly improved.

PG: Damian Lillard | Jarrett Jack
SG: Wesley Matthews | Tyreke Evans
SF: Nicolas Batum | Kostas Papanikolaou
PF: LaMarcus Aldridge | JJ Hickson
C: Cody Zeller | Meyers Leonard

Future core players:

PG: Lillard
SG:
SF: Batum
PF: Zeller
C: Leonard
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No way Wesley would start over Evens. Evens can drop 20+ on a nightly basis.
 
BigGameDamian said:
No way Wesley would start over Evens. Evens can drop 20+ on a nightly basis.
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He certainly can but he is not showing it. Wesley Matthews has exactly the same amount of 20 point games this year as Tyreke Evans does.
 
I'm just having a really hard time working up the enthusiasm to play this game for the umpteenth time. The way I see it, to be competetive the Blazers need an All-Star caliber wing player and a center who can instill a defensive presence in the middle. Slide Wesley to the 6th man spot and Hickson to the backup PF position, sign an aging vet or two in the off-season, and the bench looks fine. I don't give a rat's ass whether the Blazers get those needs through the draft, via free agency or by fleecing some other GM. Whether the rebuild is long or slow depends on how quickly they can make those moves happen.
 
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