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From the CBO report:
http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/05-25-Impact_of_ARRA.pdf
ARRA’s Long-Run Effects
In contrast to its positive near-term macroeconomic
effects, ARRA will reduce output slightly in the long run,
CBO estimates—by between zero and 0.2 percent after
2016. But CBO expects that the legislation will have no
long-term effects on employment because the U.S. economy
will have a high rate of use of its labor resources in
the long run.
ARRA’s long-run impact on the economy will stem primarily
from the resulting increase in government debt.
To the extent that people hold their wealth in government
securities rather than in a form that can be used to finance
private investment, the increased debt tends to
reduce the stock of productive private capital. In the long
run, each dollar of additional debt crowds out about a
third of a dollar’s worth of private domestic capital, CBO
estimates. (The remainder of the rise in debt is offset by
increases in private saving and inflows of foreign capital.)
Because of uncertainty about the degree of crowding out,
however, CBO’s range of estimates of ARRA’s long-run
effects reflects the possibility that the extent of crowding
out could be more or less than one-third of the added
debt.
Over the long term, the output of the economy depends
on the stock of productive capital, the supply of labor,
and productivity. The less productive capital there is as
a result of lower private investment, the smaller will be
the nation’s output over the long run.
http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/05-25-Impact_of_ARRA.pdf
ARRA’s Long-Run Effects
In contrast to its positive near-term macroeconomic
effects, ARRA will reduce output slightly in the long run,
CBO estimates—by between zero and 0.2 percent after
2016. But CBO expects that the legislation will have no
long-term effects on employment because the U.S. economy
will have a high rate of use of its labor resources in
the long run.
ARRA’s long-run impact on the economy will stem primarily
from the resulting increase in government debt.
To the extent that people hold their wealth in government
securities rather than in a form that can be used to finance
private investment, the increased debt tends to
reduce the stock of productive private capital. In the long
run, each dollar of additional debt crowds out about a
third of a dollar’s worth of private domestic capital, CBO
estimates. (The remainder of the rise in debt is offset by
increases in private saving and inflows of foreign capital.)
Because of uncertainty about the degree of crowding out,
however, CBO’s range of estimates of ARRA’s long-run
effects reflects the possibility that the extent of crowding
out could be more or less than one-third of the added
debt.
Over the long term, the output of the economy depends
on the stock of productive capital, the supply of labor,
and productivity. The less productive capital there is as
a result of lower private investment, the smaller will be
the nation’s output over the long run.
