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I take that to mean that you agree there's at least a REASON why people would believe CO2 emissions could lead to higher temperatures.

By the way, you can say things like CO2 is a "good thing" or that .00035 is a super-duper small number, but that super-duper small number is causing somewhere between 9%-26% of the Earth's greenhouse effect. The Earth's black-body temperature is around 0 degrees, and it's average temperature is around 57 degrees, so it's safe to say that CO2 content (which has increased by about 30% since 1750) is responsible for at least 5-6 of those degrees.

Which is it: 9% or 26%?
 
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</td> <td> </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table width="95%" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr> <td>Earth on the Brink of an Ice Age
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</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <table width="95%" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr valign="middle"> <td width="80" bgcolor="#ffffff">11.01.2009</td> <td bgcolor="#ffffff">
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http://english.pravda.ru/science/earth/106922-earth_ice_age-0</td> </tr></tbody></table>
<table width="95%" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0"> <tbody><tr> <td> The earth is now on the brink of entering another Ice Age, according to a large and compelling body of evidence from within the field of climate science. Many sources of data which provide our knowledge base of long-term climate change indicate that the warm, twelve thousand year-long Holocene period will rather soon be coming to an end, and then the earth will return to Ice Age conditions for the next 100,000 years.

Ice cores, ocean sediment cores, the geologic record, and studies of ancient plant and animal populations all demonstrate a regular cyclic pattern of Ice Age glacial maximums which each last about 100,000 years, separated by intervening warm interglacials, each lasting about 12,000 years.

Most of the long-term climate data collected from various sources also shows a strong correlation with the three astronomical cycles which are together known as the Milankovich cycles. The three Milankovich cycles include the tilt of the earth, which varies over a 41,000 year period; the shape of the earth’s orbit, which changes over a period of 100,000 years; and the Precession of the Equinoxes, also known as the earth’s ‘wobble’, which gradually rotates the direction of the earth’s axis over a period of 26,000 years.

According to the Milankovich theory of Ice Age causation, these three astronomical cycles, each of which effects the amount of solar radiation which reaches the earth, act together to produce the cycle of cold Ice Age maximums and warm interglacials.

Elements of the astronomical theory of Ice Age causation were first presented by the French mathematician Joseph Adhemar in 1842, it<script></script> was developed further by the English prodigy Joseph Croll in 1875, and the theory was established in its present form by the Czech mathematician Milutin Milankovich in the 1920s and 30s. In 1976 the prestigious journal “Science” published a landmark paper by John Imbrie, James Hays, and Nicholas Shackleton entitled “Variations in the Earth's orbit: Pacemaker of the Ice Ages,” which described the correlation which the trio of scientist/authors had found between the climate data obtained from ocean sediment cores and the patterns of the astronomical Milankovich cycles. Since the late 1970s, the Milankovich theory has remained the predominant theory to account for Ice Age causation among climate scientists, and hence the Milankovich theory is always described in textbooks of climatology and in encyclopaedia articles about the Ice Ages.

In their 1976 paper Imbrie, Hays, and Shackleton wrote that their own climate forecasts, which were based on sea-sediment cores and the Milankovich cycles, "… must be qualified in two ways. First, they apply only to the natural component of future climatic trends - and not to anthropogenic effects such as those due to the burning of fossil fuels. Second, they describe only the long-term trends, because they are linked to orbital variations with periods of 20,000 years and longer. Climatic oscillations at higher frequencies are not predicted... the results indicate that the long-term trend over the next 20,000 years is towards extensive Northern Hemisphere glaciation and cooler climate."

During the 1970s the famous American astronomer Carl Sagan and other scientists began promoting the theory that ‘greenhouse gasses’ such as carbon dioxide, or CO2, produced by human industries could lead to catastrophic global warming. Since the 1970s the theory of ‘anthropogenic global warming’ (AGW) has gradually become accepted<script></script> as fact by most of the academic establishment, and their acceptance of AGW has inspired a global movement to encourage governments to make pivotal changes to prevent the worsening of AGW.

The central piece of evidence that is cited in support of the AGW theory is the famous ‘hockey stick’ graph which was presented by Al Gore in his 2006 film “An Inconvenient Truth.” The ‘hockey stick’ graph shows an acute upward spike in global temperatures which began during the 1970s and continued through the winter of 2006/07. However, this warming trend was interrupted when the winter of 2007/8 delivered the deepest snow cover to the Northern Hemisphere since 1966 and the coldest temperatures since 2001. It now appears that the current Northern Hemisphere winter of 2008/09 will probably equal or surpass the winter of 2007/08 for both snow depth and cold temperatures.

The main flaw in the AGW theory is that its proponents focus on evidence from only the past one thousand years at most, while ignoring the evidence from the past million years -- evidence which is essential for a true understanding of climatology. The data from paleoclimatology provides us with an alternative and more credible explanation for the recent global temperature spike, based on the natural cycle of Ice Age maximums and interglacials.

In 1999 the British journal “Nature” published the results of data derived from glacial ice cores collected at the Russia ’s Vostok station in Antarctica during the 1990s. The Vostok ice core data includes a record of global atmospheric temperatures, atmospheric CO2 and other greenhouse gases, and airborne particulates starting from 420,000 years ago and continuing through history up to our present time.

The graph of the Vostok ice core data shows that the Ice Age maximums and the warm interglacials occur within a regular cyclic<script></script> pattern, the graph-line of which is similar to the rhythm of a heartbeat on an electrocardiogram tracing. The Vostok data graph also shows that changes in global CO2 levels lag behind global temperature changes by about eight hundred years. What that indicates is that global temperatures precede or cause global CO2 changes, and not the reverse. In other words, increasing atmospheric CO2 is not causing global temperature to rise; instead the natural cyclic increase in global temperature is causing global CO2 to rise.

The reason that global CO2 levels rise and fall in response to the global temperature is because cold water is capable of retaining more CO2 than warm water. That is why carbonated beverages loose their carbonation, or CO2, when stored in a warm environment. We store our carbonated soft drinks, wine, and beer in a cool place to prevent them from loosing their ‘fizz’, which is a feature of their carbonation, or CO2 content. The earth is currently warming as a result of the natural Ice Age cycle, and as the oceans get warmer, they release increasing amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere.

Because the release of CO2 by the warming oceans lags behind the changes in the earth’s temperature, we should expect to see global CO2 levels continue to rise for another eight hundred years after the end of the earth’s current Interglacial warm period. We should already be eight hundred years into the coming Ice Age before global CO2 levels begin to drop in response to the increased chilling of the world’s oceans.

The Vostok ice core data graph reveals that global CO2 levels regularly rose and fell in a direct response to the natural cycle of Ice Age minimums and maximums during the past four hundred and twenty thousand years. Within that natural cycle, about every 110,000 years global temperatures, followed by global CO2 levels, have peaked at<script></script> approximately the same levels which they are at today.

About 325,000 years ago, at the peak of a warm interglacial, global temperature and CO2 levels were higher than they are today. Today we are again at the peak, and near to the end, of a warm interglacial, and the earth is now due to enter the next Ice Age. If we are lucky, we may have a few years to prepare for it. The Ice Age will return, as it always has, in its regular and natural cycle, with or without any influence from the effects of AGW.

The AGW theory is based on data that is drawn from a ridiculously narrow span of time and it demonstrates a wanton disregard for the ‘big picture’ of long-term climate change. The data from paleoclimatology, including ice cores, sea sediments, geology, paleobotany and zoology, indicate that we are on the verge of entering another Ice Age, and the data also shows that severe and lasting climate change can occur within only a few years. While concern over the dubious threat of Anthropogenic Global Warming continues to distract the attention of people throughout the world, the very real threat of the approaching and inevitable Ice Age, which will render large parts of the Northern Hemisphere uninhabitable, is being foolishly ignored.

Gregory F. Fegel

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I could have posted this in one of the other threads about Obama's cabinet choices, but it really illustrates just why there is this man made global warming hoax in the first place. See the bolded parts. Yeah, it's the Washington Times but if you find fault with the source, at least show why the journalism in this piece is faulty.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/jan/12/obama-climate-czar-has-socialist-ties/

Obama climate czar has socialist ties


Stephen Dinan (Contact)


Until last week, Carol M. Browner, President-elect Barack Obama's pick as global warming czar, was listed as one of 14 leaders of a socialist group's Commission for a Sustainable World Society, which calls for "global governance" and says rich countries must shrink their economies to address climate change.

By Thursday, Mrs. Browner's name and biography had been removed from Socialist International's Web page, though a photo of her speaking June 30 to the group's congress in Greece was still available.
Socialist International, an umbrella group for many of the world's social democratic political parties such as Britain's Labor Party, says it supports socialism and is harshly critical of U.S. policies.

The group's Commission for a Sustainable World Society, the organization's action arm on climate change, says the developed world must reduce consumption and commit to binding and punitive limits on greenhouse gas emissions.

Mr. Obama, who has said action on climate change would be a priority in his administration, tapped Mrs. Browner last month to fill a new position as White House coordinator of climate and energy policies. The appointment does not need Senate confirmation.

Mr. Obama's transition team said Mrs. Browner's membership in the organization is not a problem and that it brings experience in U.S. policymaking to her new role.

"The Commission for a Sustainable World Society includes world leaders from a variety of political parties, including British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, who succeeded Tony Blair, in serving as vice president of the convening organization," Obama transition spokesman Nick Shapiro said.

"Carol Browner was chosen to help the president-elect coordinate energy and climate policy because she understands that our efforts to create jobs, achieve energy security and combat climate change demand integration among different agencies; cooperation between federal, state and local governments; and partnership with the private sector," Mr. Shapiro said in an e-mail.

Mrs. Browner ran the Environmental Protection Agency under President Clinton. Until she was tapped for the Obama administration, she was on the board of directors for the National Audubon Society, the League of Conservation Voters, the Center for American Progress and former Vice President Al Gore's Alliance for Climate Protection.

Her name has been removed from the Gore organization's Web site list of directors, and the Audubon Society issued a press release about her departure from that organization.

Republicans said Mrs. Browner's work with Socialist International raises questions.

"Does she agree with the group's positions on global governance - that the United States should abdicate its international leadership to international organizations? Does she support its position that the international community should be the ultimate arbiter of climate change policy?" said Antonia Ferrier, a spokeswoman for House Minority Leader John A. Boehner, Ohio Republican.

"These are questions that merit answers - especially when you consider this group's deep skepticism about America's ability to be a force for positive change in the world," she said.

An aide on the Obama team said its information shows that Mrs. Browner resigned from the organization in June 2008. The aide, who asked not to be named because he was discussing internal matters, said the transition team was aware she had been a member of the group when she was vetted.

The Socialist International Web site didn't have a copy of her June 30 speech, but the agenda for the meeting had her scheduled to speak as part of a panel on "How do we strengthen the multilateral architecture for a sustainable future?"

Other panel participants were Sergey Mironov, speaker of the Russian legislature's upper chamber and a close ally of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin; Zhang Zhijun, vice minister of the International Department of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee; and Jesus Caldera, a former Minister of Employment and Social Affairs of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party.

A woman answering the phone at Socialist International's headquarters in London said all officers were traveling.

Nobody from the organization returned a message left Friday.

Socialist International bills itself as the world body of democratic socialist movements. It includes members ranging from Israel's Labor Party and France's Socialist Party to Angola's MPLA, which won the 1970s Angolan civil war with the aid of Soviet arms and Cuban troops.

The organization distinguishes itself from violent or revolutionary communist parties. However, some such groups, including the Chinese Communist Party, have been invited to its events as guest organizations.
The Democratic Socialists of America, not the Democratic Party, is listed as the group's U.S. representative. But Mrs. Browner was listed as an individual member of Socialist International, but not a member of the DSA.

While agreeing with Mr. Obama on the need for action to address climate change, the organization wants more draconian policies than the president-elect's preferred solution.

During the presidential campaign, Mr. Obama called for a cap-and-trade system to control carbon emissions. He argued that such a system is efficient and lets the free market determine where it's easiest to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Socialist International says such "flexible mechanisms" do not clamp down hard enough on polluters.
The organization often takes a decidedly critical view of the U.S.

At this summer's meeting, the group issued a statement on economics that blasted the "neo-liberal market ideology and the unilateralist, U.S.-dominated approach in the global economic system," and attacked the U.S. for dominating international financial institutions.

At its meeting earlier in 2008 in Santiago, Chile, Socialist International endorsed "global governance" as the solution to the world's problems of peace and climate change.

At a July meeting in St. Petersburg, the commission said developed countries "should think of decreasing current consumption levels" - which would mean shrinking their economies - in order to help the environment.

Socialist International regularly blasts the construction of fencing along the U.S.-Mexico border. The fence was approved by both houses of Congress, including with Mr. Obama's vote in the Senate.

Socialist International was congratulatory when Mr. Obama won the election, issuing a statement noting that "the sky may seem a bit brighter today" but warning still that "there are enormous global challenges that must be addressed effectively and without delay."
 
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I'd just add that there's no reason to think there's a direct correlation between snowfall and temperature. Snow doesn't necessarily fall on the coldest days of the year - it falls when there's the highest temperature gradient between the upper and lower atmosphere (or rather, once you're near freezing, the gradient is more important than the temperature).

Climate science is incredibly complicated, which is why the global warming deniers are in such a tenuous position - global temperatures increasing with increased CO2 content is just an incredibly obvious conclusion, due to the greenhouse effect. Proving it's going to cause more or less snow or more or less powerful hurricanes is a LOT harder.

I've only read this last page, but fwiw, warming is supposed to be associated with increased precipitation, which includes snowfall. The atmosphere's generally going to be holding more moisture. Sorry if this point was made earlier.
 
You have to admit this is pretty funny.

http://www.ktuu.com/Global/story.asp?S=9698958

Gore ice sculpture unveiled in Fairbanks
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Associated Press - January 19, 2009 8:14 PM ET

FAIRBANKS, Alaska (AP) - Al Gore is now a wintertime fixture in Fairbanks.
Well, make that an ice sculpture of the 2007 Nobel Prize winner and leader in the movement to draw attention to climate change and global warming.

Local businessman Craig Compeau unveiled the frozen likeness on Monday.

The 8 1/2-foot-tall, 5-ton sculpture dominates a downtown street corner from its perch on the back of a flatbed truck.

Compeau says he's a "moderate" critic of global warming theories. He used Monday's unveiling of the sculpture to invite Gore to Fairbanks -- where it was 22 degrees on Monday -- to explain his global warming theories.

He says it will stand through March, unless it melts before then.

Information from: Fairbanks Daily News-Miner, http://www.newsminer.com

 
This is funny, too. And typical.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article5536973.ece

Met Office forecasts a supercomputer embarrassment

A new £33m machine purchased to calculate how climate change will affect Britain, has a giant carbon footprint of its own

For the Met Office the forecast is considerable embarrassment. It has spent £33m on a new supercomputer to calculate how climate change will affect Britain – only to find the new machine has a giant carbon footprint of its own.

“The new supercomputer, which will become operational later this year, will emit 14,400 tonnes of CO2 a year,” said Dave Britton, the Met Office’s chief press officer. This is equivalent to the CO2 emitted by 2,400 homes – generating an average of six tonnes each a year.
 
Yes, but it would be a lot funnier if they provided a photo of the sculpture.

barfo

Where did they ever find 8 1/2 tons of ice near the arctic to make that sculpture? I am told it's all melted.
 
“The new supercomputer, which will become operational later this year, will emit 14,400 tonnes of CO2 a year,” said Dave Britton, the Met Office’s chief press officer. This is equivalent to the CO2 emitted by 2,400 homes – generating an average of six tonnes each a year.

Since when do computers emit CO2?

barfo
 
Since when do computers emit CO2?

barfo

This supercomputer must be like an aircraft carrier. When it operates, there's a whole fleet that goes along with it. In other words, all the power requirements and generators and the like emit the CO2.
 
This supercomputer must be like an aircraft carrier. When it operates, there's a whole fleet that goes along with it. In other words, all the power requirements and generators and the like emit the CO2.

My guess is, the power plants that generate the electricity that the computer runs on emit CO2. Which isn't really a big shocking discovery.

They basically just put out a press release saying that they'd discovered that their new computer runs on electricity. And then botched even that pathetically stupid revelation.

On the other hand, maybe the computer is actually a big box of gerbils. Then it really would generate CO2.

barfo
 
Two articles from the same newspaper:

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/12/30/BAGD150KFJ.DTL

Sierra snowpack below normal, surveyors find

Kelly Zito, Chronicle Staff Writer
Wednesday, December 31, 2008

(12-31) 04:00 PST Phillips, El Dorado County --

Despite recent storms, state surveyors reported Tuesday that snow levels in the Sierra Nevada are below average for this time of year, making water rationing almost certain in 2009 with California's water supply in crisis.

The water content of the snow - the key measurement for how much water will flow into reservoirs - was 83 percent of normal in Tuesday's survey, officials said, indicating a moderately dry start to the snow season after two consecutive dry years.

"Over the last two weeks, the snow has been good and there have been some strong storms," said senior state meteorologist Elissa Lynn. "But we're certainly not at any point yet in making up for the deficit from the last two years."

In a fluffy, white field at an elevation of 6,800 feet near the base of the Sierra-at-Tahoe ski resort off Highway 50, officials took the first measurement of the season: 10 inches of water content in 41 inches of snow. Normal water content for that location is 12 inches this time of year.

The information will prove critical to water managers around the state because California's water system is crumbling under the pressure of a booming state population, aging infrastructure, ongoing environmental battles and a two-year drought that has left reservoirs at rock-bottom levels and forced water cutbacks among farms and cities.

Forecasters predict this will be another dry winter, based on ocean temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific that are cooler than normal, which affects global weather patterns.

"Unfortunately, that's frequently the sign of a dry West," Frank Gehrke, chief of snow surveys for the state Department of Water Resources, said.

In October, the agency announced that it would deliver just 15 percent of the water requested by cities and farmers statewide in 2009 - the second-lowest level since deliveries began in 1962.

Surveyors measure several components of the snowfall throughout the Sierra Nevada - the source of a majority of the state's water supply - at monthly intervals during the winter season. The most important reading is the snow's water content. The higher the saturation, the more potential runoff.

Last season's levels were below average at the turn of the year, but sunny, windy conditions in late winter made things worse, sublimating the snowpack, Lynn said, meaning that snow evaporated from the slopes.

When March and April turned into the driest spring months on record, conditions got even worse. Because the 2006-2007 winter was also dry, the parched soil soaked up even more water than usual, helping reduce runoff to only 57 percent of normal.

As a result, the East Bay Municipal Utility District imposed rationing, urging single-family homes to cut water use by 19 percent, and set an overall conservation goal of 15 percent for the district's 1.2 million customers.

Central Valley farmers, meanwhile, received only 40 percent of their usual water allotment - lower than the 45 percent originally estimated.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger declared a statewide drought and called on Californians to slash water use by 20 percent.

Complicating matters further, a federal judge in 2007 ordered operators of the giant water pumps in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta - which funnels water to two-thirds of California - to decrease water exports by one-third in order to protect the endangered delta smelt.

Against that backdrop, most water agencies are preparing for the possibility of another dry year.

"It's really important for us to watch the precipitation but also our water conservation efforts," Andrea Pook, a spokeswoman for the East Bay Municipal Utility District, said Tuesday.

Customers are falling short of the 15 percent conservation goal, cutting usage by 10.7 percent, she said, while the district's reservoirs are at 54 percent of normal levels.

Still, forecasters cling to the hope that the rest of the season will bring a stream of cold, wet storms.

"It's still early on," Lynn said. "November (precipitation) was below average and we got nothing in the first two weeks of December, but January and February are usually big producers. We have a long way to go."

The first part of January doesn't look good, according to the National Weather Service. A small storm is expected to reach the Bay Area on Friday and drop about one-quarter of an inch of rain, but little more is expected through the first half of the month, said Warren Blier, science officer for the agency.

Chronicle staff writer Jill Tucker contributed to this report. E-mail Kelly Zito at kzito@sfchronicle.com.

http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/12/31/MNGD150KFJ.DTL

This article appeared on page A - 1 of the San Francisco Chronicle


http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/02/01/MNE3UPTSC.DTL

Sierra snowpack good - drought fears lessen

Peter Fimrite, Chronicle Staff Writer
Friday, February 1, 2008

(02-01) 04:00 PST Phillips, El Dorado County --

The big aluminum pole slipped through the powdery snow and hit solid ground a good 73 inches down, prompting satisfied grins from snow survey specialists Frank Gehrke and Dave Hart.

"That's beauticious," declared Gehrke, who trudges every year with his colleague at the state Department of Water Resources into the snowy Sierra backcountry to measure water content and depth.

The measurements Thursday at historic Phillips Station, next to the Sierra-at-Tahoe resort, were too good for real words, especially after last year's meager results prompted fears of drought.

The Sierra Nevada snowpack, which, to hydrologists, is a better holding tank than the biggest man-made reservoir, is 13 percentage points above normal for this time of year. That, to a man who makes a living off a good water supply, can make a cold day in the middle of a quickly intensifying storm feel like a summer jaunt.

"This is practically picnic weather," joked Hart, as he stood there in wool pants and a giant parka, blinking as white flakes speckled his head.

The snowpack will grow as the storm continues to dump on Northern California this weekend, meteorologists said Thursday. But then they predict an extended stretch of blue skies.

The winter snowpack in the Sierra is not only important to skiers and snowboarders, it is an essential part of the state's water supply. Up to 60 percent of the state's water is contained in the Sierra snowpack, Hart said. When it melts in the spring and summer, the water is used to irrigate 775,000 acres of farmland and quench the thirst of California's 36 million people. About a quarter of the state's power comes from hydroelectric plants that count on heavy mountain runoff.

"Even in an average year it is absolutely critical," Hart said. "This is water on the ground that will melt during the spring. We depend on it."

For 63 years, the water content of the snow - the amount of water that would be on the ground if all the snow melted - has been measured every month between January and May. The measurements, which are taken in the same locations throughout the Sierra every year, are used to determine the water supply for the coming year.

Gehrke and Hart jam a tube-like instrument through the snow, catching what is essentially a core sample. They measure the depth and weigh the whole thing to determine the water content.

The Jan. 31 measurement at the privately owned cabin known as Phillips Station is seen by many as the Groundhog Day of water availability in the state. If the snowpack is good, chances are there won't be a drought.

Seven measurements, each 50 feet apart, were taken in a meadow just off of Highway 50 Thursday next to Phillips Station. The average depth of the snow was 73.1 inches and the water content was 23.6 inches. That's 23 percent above average for the site. Last year at this time, the depth was 23.2 and the water content was 7.3 inches at Phillips, only 38 percent of the average.

"You can certainly be optimistic," Hart said. "If we just have one or two more of these big storms we will hit our average for the year."

It is, however, dangerous to think that average or even slightly above average at this time means the state is sitting pretty, Hart said.

"It used to be good when you had 20 million people, but now we have more than 35 million people in the state," he said. "And in the past we didn't have the demand for environmental uses of water," like fisheries restoration.

"We need to be better than average if we're going to make up for the deficit from last year," he continued. "We've got all these people in Southern California now and they all want lawns. And they don't have rain down there."

The Bay Area is another story. National Weather Service forecasters said the rain will stop Friday but return Saturday night. It should be clear by Sunday evening, said Bob Benjamin, a forecaster for the National Weather Service.

"Monday's good, Tuesday looks fine and then there may be another brief interlude (of rain) on Wednesday," he said. "We might get showers in Sonoma, and maybe as far south as the Golden Gate, but we should be just catching a glancing blow of a system headed across the Pacific Northwest."

Hart said that since 1995 the Sierra have seen more above-average snowfall years than normal. But he and Gehrke aren't about to get too giddy as the rain and snow pummels the state. They both long ago adopted the old water game mantra to guard against optimism.

Staff writer Marisa Lagos contributed to this report. E-mail Peter Fimrite at pfimrite@sfchronicle.com.

http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/02/01/MNE3UPTSC.DTL

This article appeared on page A - 14 of the San Francisco Chronicle
 
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First article makes the front page, second is buried on page 14.
 
First article makes the front page, second is buried on page 14.

The first one is potentially bad news, the second one is a report of situation normal. Of course the first one gets more play. That's how news works, for every subject. Normality is not front page news.

It's not a conspiracy.

barfo
 
Where did they ever find 8 1/2 tons of ice near the arctic to make that sculpture? I am told it's all melted.

They "relocated" the supposedly last few polar bears who haven't yet drowned to Guantanamo Bay, since it'll need inhabitants soon and they needed the real estate for Al Gore statuary.
 
http://www.newscientist.com/article...nce-to-save-mankind.html?full=true&print=true

One last chance to save mankind



With his 90th birthday in July, a trip into space scheduled for later in the year and a new book out next month, 2009 promises to be an exciting time for James Lovelock. But the originator of the Gaia theory, which describes Earth as a self-regulating planet, has a stark view of the future of humanity. He tells Gaia Vince we have one last chance to save ourselves - and it has nothing to do with nuclear power

Your work on atmospheric chlorofluorocarbons led eventually to a global CFC ban that saved us from ozone-layer depletion. Do we have time to do a similar thing with carbon emissions to save ourselves from climate change?

Not a hope in hell. Most of the "green" stuff is verging on a gigantic scam. Carbon trading, with its huge government subsidies, is just what finance and industry wanted. It's not going to do a damn thing about climate change, but it'll make a lot of money for a lot of people and postpone the moment of reckoning. I am not against renewable energy, but to spoil all the decent countryside in the UK with wind farms is driving me mad. It's absolutely unnecessary, and it takes 2500 square kilometres to produce a gigawatt - that's an awful lot of countryside.

What about work to sequester carbon dioxide?

That is a waste of time. It's a crazy idea - and dangerous. It would take so long and use so much energy that it will not be done.

Do you still advocate nuclear power as a solution to climate change?

It is a way for the UK to solve its energy problems, but it is not a global cure for climate change. It is too late for emissions reduction measures.

So are we doomed?

There is one way we could save ourselves and that is through the massive burial of charcoal. It would mean farmers turning all their agricultural waste - which contains carbon that the plants have spent the summer sequestering - into non-biodegradable charcoal, and burying it in the soil. Then you can start shifting really hefty quantities of carbon out of the system and pull the CO<sub>2</sub> down quite fast.

Would it make enough of a difference?

Yes. The biosphere pumps out 550 gigatonnes of carbon yearly; we put in only 30 gigatonnes. Ninety-nine per cent of the carbon that is fixed by plants is released back into the atmosphere within a year or so by consumers like bacteria, nematodes and worms. What we can do is cheat those consumers by getting farmers to burn their crop waste at very low oxygen levels to turn it into charcoal, which the farmer then ploughs into the field. A little CO<sub>2</sub> is released but the bulk of it gets converted to carbon. You get a few per cent of biofuel as a by-product of the combustion process, which the farmer can sell. This scheme would need no subsidy: the farmer would make a profit. This is the one thing we can do that will make a difference, but I bet they won't do it.

Do you think we will survive?

I'm an optimistic pessimist. I think it's wrong to assume we'll survive 2 °C of warming: there are already too many people on Earth. At 4 °C we could not survive with even one-tenth of our current population. The reason is we would not find enough food, unless we synthesised it. Because of this, the cull during this century is going to be huge, up to 90 per cent. The number of people remaining at the end of the century will probably be a billion or less. It has happened before: between the ice ages there were bottlenecks when there were only 2000 people left. It's happening again.

I don't think humans react fast enough or are clever enough to handle what's coming up. Kyoto was 11 years ago. Virtually nothing's been done except endless talk and meetings.

I don't think we can react fast enough or are clever enough to handle what's coming up


It's a depressing outlook.

Not necessarily. I don't think 9 billion is better than 1 billion. I see humans as rather like the first photosynthesisers, which when they first appeared on the planet caused enormous damage by releasing oxygen - a nasty, poisonous gas. It took a long time, but it turned out in the end to be of enormous benefit. I look on humans in much the same light. For the first time in its 3.5 billion years of existence, the planet has an intelligent, communicating species that can consider the whole system and even do things about it. They are not yet bright enough, they have still to evolve quite a way, but they could become a very positive contributor to planetary welfare.

How much biodiversity will be left after this climatic apocalypse?

We have the example of the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum event 55 million years ago. About the same amount of CO<sub>2</sub> was put into the atmosphere as we are putting in and temperatures rocketed by about 5 °C over about 20,000 years. The world became largely desert. The polar regions were tropical and most life on the planet had the time to move north and survive. When the planet cooled they moved back again. So there doesn't have to be a massive extinction. It's already moving: if you live in the countryside as I do you can see the changes, even in the UK.

If you were younger, would you be fearful?

No, I have been through this kind of emotional thing before. It reminds me of when I was 19 and the second world war broke out. We were very frightened but almost everyone was so much happier. We're much better equipped to deal with that kind of thing than long periods of peace. It's not all bad when things get rough. I'll be 90 in July, I'm a lot closer to death than you, but I'm not worried. I'm looking forward to being 100.

Are you looking forward to your trip into space this year?

Very much. I've got my camera ready!

Do you have to do any special training?

I have to go in the centrifuge to see if I can stand the g-forces. I don't anticipate a problem because I spent a lot of my scientific life on ships out on rough oceans and I have never been even slightly seasick so I don't think I'm likely to be space sick. They gave me an expensive thorium-201 heart test and then put me on a bicycle. My heart was performing like an average 20 year old, they said.

I bet your wife is nervous.

No, she's cheering me on. And it's not because I'm heavily insured, because I'm not.

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James Lovelock is a British chemist, inventor and environmentalist. He is best known for formulating the controversial Gaia hypothesis in the 1970s, which states that organisms interact with and regulate Earth's surface and atmosphere. Later this year he will travel to space as Richard Branson's guest aboard Virgin Galactic's SpaceShipTwo. His latest book, The Vanishing Face of Gaia, is published by Basic Books in February.
 
Interesting post, since he seems to disagree with you completely about global warming.

About the same amount of CO2 was put into the atmosphere as we are putting in and temperatures rocketed by about 5 °C over about 20,000 years. The world became largely desert.

barfo
 
"Yes. The biosphere pumps out 550 gigatonnes of carbon yearly; we put in only 30 gigatonnes. Ninety-nine per cent of the carbon that is fixed by plants is released back into the atmosphere within a year or so by consumers like bacteria, nematodes and worms."

"Most of the "green" stuff is verging on a gigantic scam. Carbon trading, with its huge government subsidies, is just what finance and industry wanted. It's not going to do a damn thing about climate change, but it'll make a lot of money for a lot of people and postpone the moment of reckoning. I am not against renewable energy, but to spoil all the decent countryside in the UK with wind farms is driving me mad. It's absolutely unnecessary, and it takes 2500 square kilometres to produce a gigawatt - that's an awful lot of countryside."

He certainly does agree with me.
 
He certainly does agree with me.

Really?

About the same amount of CO2 was put into the atmosphere as we are putting in and temperatures rocketed by about 5 °C over about 20,000 years. The world became largely desert.

So you believe that most of the human population is going to die this century from global warming? Because that's his position:

Because of this, the cull during this century is going to be huge, up to 90 per cent. The number of people remaining at the end of the century will probably be a billion or less. It has happened before: between the ice ages there were bottlenecks when there were only 2000 people left. It's happening again.

If that's your position, that's cool. It just seems at odds with the global-warming-is-a-hoax thesis that I thought you were supporting.

barfo
 
Really?



So you believe that most of the human population is going to die this century from global warming? Because that's his position:



If that's your position, that's cool. It just seems at odds with the global-warming-is-a-hoax thesis that I thought you were supporting.

barfo

I am quite deliberate about differentiating between "global warming" and "man made global warming." The former is quite obvious (we had an ice age 10,000 years ago and it's steadily gotten warmer since). The latter is a scam.

I've posted that I am a fan of nuclear energy (lots of cheap, efficient, and non-polluting energy), and that our efforts would surely be better spent on figuring out how to deal with the coastal areas being flooded (it's going to happen no matter what).

It's odd to me that many of the same people who accused Bush of fear mongering re: terrorism, but are gullible about the fear mongering over man-made global warming.

Go figure.
 
I am quite deliberate about differentiating between "global warming" and "man made global warming." The former is quite obvious (we had an ice age 10,000 years ago and it's steadily gotten warmer since). The latter is a scam.

Yet this guy who you claim to agree with clearly thinks otherwise. What he thinks is a scam is the solutions proposed, not the effect.

It's odd to me that many of the same people who accused Bush of fear mongering re: terrorism, but are gullible about the fear mongering over man-made global warming.

Well, if global warming is going to kill 90% of the population, as this dude claims, does it really matter whether it is man-made or not?

Honestly, the article you posted is the most fear-mongering thing I've ever seen about global warming.

barfo
 
Yet this guy who you claim to agree with clearly thinks otherwise. What he thinks is a scam is the solutions proposed, not the effect.



Well, if global warming is going to kill 90% of the population, as this dude claims, does it really matter whether it is man-made or not?

Honestly, the article you posted is the most fear-mongering thing I've ever seen about global warming.

barfo

No, it doesn't matter if it's man made or not. What's absurd is to throw tens of $trillions at things that are irrelevant and not anything to do with the cause or the cure. We'd be better off spending a fraction of that money shoring up the coast lines and encouraging people to move inland.

This guy's proposal is simple, doesn't cost very much, seems to have a sound basis in science (seems to), and addresses the direct concerns (claims) of the scam artists.

I don't have a crystal ball or anything, but reason dictates that we may actually be at or beyond the peak of the current global warming cycle. A lot of really smart people working in the field seem to think we're in a cooling period (and 10 years of climate data show we are). What I do know is the dire predictions of the scam artists scare me no more than the Mayan predicted apocalypse in 2012 or an invasion by little green men from outer space.

5% warmer or 3% cooler is going to be hell on people worldwide.
 
No, it doesn't matter if it's man made or not. What's absurd is to throw tens of $trillions at things that are irrelevant and not anything to do with the cause or the cure. We'd be better off spending a fraction of that money shoring up the coast lines and encouraging people to move inland.

We shouldn't try to find a cure, we should just treat the symptom? Isn't that a bit defeatist?

barfo
 
We shouldn't try to find a cure, we should just treat the symptom? Isn't that a bit defeatist?

barfo

I don't think we have the technology to nudge the planet a tad further from the sun :)

We're talking about forces that are really huge and processes that are geologic in scale and ones we've had no effect on to date.

:dunno:
 
We're talking about forces that are really huge and processes that are geologic in scale and ones we've had no effect on to date.

So you claim. But the numbers that your article cited say that we cause 5% of the CO2. That 5% may make all the difference. The author claims it will:

About the same amount of CO2 was put into the atmosphere as we are putting in and temperatures rocketed by about 5 °C over about 20,000 years. The world became largely desert.

barfo
 
So you claim. But the numbers that your article cited say that we cause 5% of the CO2. That 5% may make all the difference. The author claims it will:



barfo

Over 20,000 year period. Geologic, as I said.
 
Over 20,000 year period. Geologic, as I said.

I think it's wrong to assume we'll survive 2 °C of warming: there are already too many people on Earth. At 4 °C we could not survive with even one-tenth of our current population. The reason is we would not find enough food, unless we synthesised it. Because of this, the cull during this century is going to be huge, up to 90 per cent.

barfo
 
The author claims it will:

barfo
when he says "we" there, does he mean the we from earlier that was 30 gigatonnes or does he mean the entire earth and its 550 gigatonnes?

i have to assume he means the earth as a whole. if not, there is a much bigger problem if 30 gigatonnes caused a 5 degree increase in 20,000 years and 550 gigatonnes are currently being put in.
 
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