All signs point to Steve Blake starting

[andalusian]

There are examples the other way too though.


SA outscored us by 1 in the 1st, and we outscored them by 7 in the 2nd

Pho outscored us by 6 in the 1st, and we outscored them by 7 in the 2nd

Of course there are. Brandon and LMA played in the 2nd as well, because, at times, (shock) Nate knew he had to do that to ensure that we do not go down too deep. You notice that in the 2nd half of the season Nate tried to keep at least one of them on the floor with the 2nd unit - and we finished the season very well. This right there tells me that Nate figured out the 2nd unit, as a unit, was not consistent enough to win as much as he wanted.

The issue is not just the 2nd quarter - it is also who was in there. The specific Celtics game was because I remember Roy and LMA coming out and the team going into a headspin. My gut feeling is that Roy did not trust the 2nd unit too much, and was under the impression that he was going to have to work hard in the 3rd and 4th.

I wish I could find an interview with him where he said that one of his goals for this year was to go hard from the get-go - I heard it sometime earlier this year - but did not keep a record.

Again, I might be out of my mind - but I really think there is a reason for the slow starts and Roy's coasting "habit". I just think he is smart and knowledgeable enough to get a pretty good hunch for the game and know how he has to play - and something told him he has to conserve his energy.

Time will tell.

The important thing, is, that as far as I am concerned - the entire "who starts" issue is a non-issue - because if things go wrong - adjustments will be made.

 

[MARIS61]

Miller is going to be pissed. He was paid 7 million dollars to come here.

Yeah, that would certainly piss a guy off.

We paid him more than he's worth, and more than anyone else was willing to pay him. We let him be part of a very special group of players, nearly all have more talent than him, and all have worked harder than him over the summer and fall.

He should STFU, lose the immature attitude, and learn what he can from Steve Blake about being a pro and running a team.

Better yet, he should demand a trade.

 

[BrianFromWA]

One, he can't be traded until (iirc) December 15.
Two, I'm not sure demanding a trade is the mature, "pro" move.
Third, Steve Blake doesn't "run" a team. He makes safe passes to Roy and Aldridge and shoots open three well. That's fine, but that's not "running a team".

 

[mook]

Two things I haven't seen anyone talk about in the thread.

This is only from listening, and not seeing, but I didn't hear of a single pass of Blake's last night that was more than a pass to a jump shooter for a made shot. That's great when LMA and Roy are both hitting >55%, but not so much when they're not. A "good" stat line of 7pt/7ast on 40% FG in one preseason game doesn't alleviate that. Oden had 7 shots, but 5 came off of offensive rebound putbacks and one was a "Moses Malone Special"...throwing the ball near the hoop so you could get around your man, get the rebound and put it back in. So our boy Greg got the ball passed to him one time in 24 or so minutes in a position to take a shot.

Blake's good at making the safe pass to one of our two stars, and shooting the open 3. That's it. That's great in a guy who's not playing a lot of minutes, and if starting Blake is some grand scheme to get Blake 10 minutes with Roy at the start of a game so Roy can get a quick 17, then ok. But it's not someone you want on the floor against teams who play a modicum of defense...which could be a reason we went 1-12 against the WC Top 9 on the road last year and got spanked in the playoffs.

And I know that Oden's recovered for the most part, where last year he was sluggish...but the starting unit that was just reported had the 3rd-worst win% of any five-man unit the team trotted out there last year at 40%. I ask the people happy with the lineup--what's changed from last year to this year in this lineup? Sure, Oden's healthier. But if he got the ball passed to him one time in 24 minutes, that's not alleviating our reliance on the jump shot--one of the major weaknesses in our super-efficient offense (which, btw, wasn't very efficient with this lineup playing last year).

#

Unit Min Off Def +/- W L Win%
1 Blake-Roy-Batum-Aldridge-Przybilla 560 1.19 1.01 +174 29 16 64.4
2 Blake-Roy-Batum-Aldridge-Oden 276 1.14 1.10 +6 10 15 40.0

Good post. Made me think.

Like you said, though, Oden is not the same player he was last year.

Przybilla was generally better at not getting fouls while covering for Blake's sometimes atrocious defense against PG's. If Oden is more mobile this year, this advantage Przybilla had over Oden may go away.

Also, we haven't had a center you could really run any kind offense through since Sabonis. Przybilla was the kind of center our guys were used to. So maybe it's not too surprising that our starters didn't use Oden very effectively on the offensive end.

Anyway, it's a really good point, and a bad omen for Nate's starting lineup. It seems almost inevitable to me that Miller eventually starts, and your post only moves me further in that direction.

 

[andalusian]

Anyway, it's a really good point, and a bad omen for Nate's starting lineup. It seems almost inevitable to me that Miller eventually starts, and your post only moves me further in that direction.

I actually believe that Miller will start eventually, but it would not be because of a bad omen for Nate's starting line-up - but because it simply takes longer to plug a guy like Miller into our starting line because it will require a bigger change of style that the team is just not polished with, yet.

We finished last year much better than we started (and we started very well) - and I suspect the same will happen this year. The team will become less reliant on the jump-shots, and handle post play better. It might just be a little too early to expect them to transform at this point.

 

[mook]

I actually believe that Miller will start eventually, but it would not be because of a bad omen for Nate's starting line-up - but because it simply takes longer to plug a guy like Miller into our starting line because it will require a bigger change of style that the team is just not polished with, yet.

We finished last year much better than we started (and we started very well) - and I suspect the same will happen this year. The team will become less reliant on the jump-shots, and handle post play better. It might just be a little too early to expect them to transform at this point.

I don't see much I disagree with there, but what did you think about BrianFromWa's win share point?

Why was the new projected starting lineup so bad last year? Why should we expect it to be better this year?

 

[andalusian]

I don't see much I disagree with there, but what did you think about BrianFromWa's win share point?

Why was the new projected starting lineup so bad last year? Why should we expect it to be better this year?

I think that what he (Brian) showed us was why Nate and company changed from Oden to Pryzbilla last year. I think that when they tried to run the offense through Oden last year it did not work very well, so in this regard (offense) - Oden was not an upgrade in the first unit over Pryzbilla, but, on the other hand, Joel played much better defense last year than Greg - and that's why they made the transition.

What changed this year? You both touched on it - Greg looks like a very different player this year. He does not get into the same kind of foul trouble, he seems to be more prolific on offense.

That's all there is to it, honestly.

We have seen Greg play well in flashes last year - but I do not think we have ever seen him take over a game as he did against Denver for 7 minutes this pre-season. This, right there, is the big difference.

He is better on defense and better on offense. It is time to start integrating him as one of the pillars of this team.

Miller's acquisition might be the biggest change in play style we had so far this year, but long term - Greg playing as we all envisioned him when he was drafted is the biggest change long term.

I also think that Greg can be super-efficient in the current style of the first unit - just by playing good defense and being a super-deluxe garbage man on offense, the team can be successful while they learn to integrate him more on offense.

Miller is harder to integrate - because he is not effective as a long-range bomber instead of Blake and he needs to control the ball more to be effective. It is just going to take longer to get these guys to gel - because they will not be successful with Miller playing the Blake role, but they will be successful with Oden playing the Joel role.

With time, I suspect these guys will adjust to both playing more through the post and more playing with Miller handling the ball more and Roy playing more off the ball - but it is a bigger change.

When you go back to basic engineering principles - if you have something that works rather well, you put small changes in to refine it along the way. If something does not work well - you should just stick many different things out there to figure out what works well - and start the refinement process from there.

I think what Nate is doing now is knowing they had something good going last year, and starting the refining process. On the first unit - it is slowly more post play with Oden, on the 2nd unit - it is more efficient scoring from the PG position in a fast unit with Miller instead of Sergio.

 

[Schilly]

Was the flaw in Greg starting, or in Nate trying to run the offense through Greg?

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Why was the new projected starting lineup so bad last year?

My guess is that the offense was predicated on the pick and roll, and Joel set picks much better than Oden did. Plus, Oden fouled a lot, leading to lots more free throws for the opposition.

Why should we expect it to be better this year?

One reason would be that Oden will foul less and play better defense. Another could be that we might be less dependent on the P&R, incorporating "feed the post" more. Or, perhaps Oden will just be better at that role than he was last year. All three are likely.

 

[andalusian]

Was the flaw in Greg starting, or in Nate trying to run the offense through Greg?

The idea for drafting Oden was to have a post presence and defense. If he could do one of the two last year - I think they would have stuck with him - he IS the solution long term.

But, last year, he had way too many turn-overs when they threw the ball to him in the post - and his defense was not as good as Joel - so they were smart enough to take a step back and recognize that they just need to get him back in rhythm, take the pressure off him - and let Roy and LMA carry us.

It worked fantastically well, I think, and they seem like they are taking the long-term approach still - while competing hard at the same time.

I like it.

 

[LittleAlex]

According to the post game show, Nate told Jason Quick after the game that the opening night starting lineup will be:

Blake
Roy
Batum
Aldridge
Oden

I am glad Oden will start. Slightly disappointed that Miller isn't.

I will say that Miller's play has not actually been tremendously better then Blake's. Miller's stats are better but the team plays worse when Miller is on the floor right now.

And that is what has disappointed me more then anything this offseason.

 

[rocketeer]

Was the flaw in Greg starting, or in Nate trying to run the offense through Greg?

i don't think running the offense through oden is a flaw. portland should start games establishing both aldridge and oden in the post. big men are always better when they get early post touches. i just think that roy should be the guy controlling the offense at the start and if opposing teams give him opportunities while trying to get the big guys going, he should take them.

i realize that roy (like most high scoring stars who also are the main facilitator for their team) generally tries to get everyone else involved early and doesn't pick up his scoring until later in the game, but i don't see that really being a problem. and then when miller does come in the game, roy can focus more on just being a scorer while miller handles running the team.

what's a lot more interesting to me than who starts the game is who finishes close games. right now i have a feeling that miller probably won't be finishing close games(though i'm not sure that blake will either. probably rudy and then one blake/miller/webster/batum depending on what the situation calls for).

 

[Schilly]

Rocketeer, I was speaking specifically about last season.

 

[BrianFromWA]

I don't think the offense needs to run through Greg. I think he needs more touches than the starting SF and PG--whoever those may be. In my limited observation of the preseason, it seemed that Miller and Howard were the only guys who looked to get him the ball--aside from 3 minutes of the DEN game (below). Not "running the offense through him", just getting it to him every once in a while to get someone in foul trouble or to draw a double-team.

The best Greg looked this preseason? The DEN game, for those magical minutes. He was passed the ball in position once by Howard (3-pt play) and twice by Roy (assists) between 6:56 and 3:01. Couple that with the two offensive rebounds (putback and fouls) and you get 12 quick points. Just by giving the dude 3 touches in 4 minutes.

 

[andalusian]

I don't think the offense needs to run through Greg. I think he needs more touches than the starting SF and PG--whoever those may be. In my limited observation of the preseason, it seemed that Miller and Howard were the only guys who looked to get him the ball--aside from 3 minutes of the DEN game (below). Not "running the offense through him", just getting it to him every once in a while to get someone in foul trouble or to draw a double-team.

The best Greg looked this preseason? The DEN game, for those magical minutes. He was passed the ball in position once by Howard (3-pt play) and twice by Roy (assists) between 6:56 and 3:01. Couple that with the two offensive rebounds (putback and fouls) and you get 12 quick points. Just by giving the dude 3 touches in 4 minutes.

I agree with that 100%. I think that this will come with time.

 

[Paxil]

Only reason Miller won't start is because of Roy. Roy will see that he gets the crap smacked out of him again because teams know that you only have to shut down Roy and Aldridge and our starting unit is toast. I was really hoping we'd get another offensive threat in starting lineup.

 

[MickZagger]

Yeah, that would certainly piss a guy off.

We paid him more than he's worth, and more than anyone else was willing to pay him. We let him be part of a very special group of players, nearly all have more talent than him, and all have worked harder than him over the summer and fall.

He should STFU, lose the immature attitude, and learn what he can from Steve Blake about being a pro and running a team.

Better yet, he should demand a trade.

The guy has never been a workhorse during the summer and he's still one of the top 10 point guards in the game. He should demand a trade before he's ever played in a meaningful game for the team.

 

[rocketeer]

The guy has never been a workhorse during the summer and he's still one of the top 10 point guards in the game. He should demand a trade before he's ever played in a meaningful game for the team.

andre miller is not a top 10 pg.

 

[Natebishop3]

I think it's hilarious that Miller hasn't even played a regular season game for this team, and some fans are already vilifying him. Blake, Outlaw, and Webster have been here for years, so we have quite a bit of history to build an opinion off of.

 

[MickZagger]

andre miller is not a top 10 pg.

Give me your top 10.

 

[PHXBlazer1]

andre miller is not a top 10 pg.

If you're looking at any statistic outside of 3 pt%, it'd be nearly impossible for Andre Miller not to be on any top 10 NBA PG list in any given year since he's been in the league. I'm not gonna look it up, but if you can prove me wrong I'd be surprised.

 

[rocketeer]

Give me your top 10.

paul, deron, parker, billups, nash, harris, rose, jameer. there are 8 guys that miller has absolutely no argument over.

take into consideration guys like arenas, baron, calderon, kidd, rondo, mo williams, aaron brooks, mike bibby and there's just no way that andre miller is a top 10 pg.

 

[MickZagger]

I'll give you the first 8. Arenas and Davis haven't been healthy and haven't played so I don't consider them.

Brooks, Bibby and Mo Williams aren't better than Andre Miller.

 

[rocketeer]

I'll give you the first 8. Arenas and Davis haven't been healthy and haven't played so I don't consider them.

Brooks, Bibby and Mo Williams aren't better than Andre Miller.

mo williams is, brooks and bibby are arguable, and then you still have calderon, rondo, and kidd that i mentioned.

 

[VanillaGorilla]

mo williams is, brooks and bibby are arguable, and then you still have calderon, rondo, and kidd that i mentioned.

I think Mo Williams is arguable also.. Rondo is definitely better and I would probably take Kidd over Miller too.

 

[MickZagger]

mo williams is, brooks and bibby are arguable, and then you still have calderon, rondo, and kidd that i mentioned.

Mo Williams isn't, Calderon maybe. That still leaves Miller in the top 10.

 

[Minstrel]

paul, deron, parker, billups, nash, harris, rose, jameer. there are 8 guys that miller has absolutely no argument over.

I'd replace Nelson with Rondo. I'd much rather have Rondo than Nelson.

take into consideration guys like arenas, baron, calderon, kidd, rondo, mo williams, aaron brooks, mike bibby and there's just no way that andre miller is a top 10 pg.

Arenas and Williams aren't really point guards, any more than Wade or Monta Ellis are. They're "combo guards" who can't play point guard full-time unless they happen to be in situations where a teammate can handle a lot of the distribution duties. Brooks isn't anywhere near the other players listed or Miller. I would much rather have Miller than Bibby.

Miller, Calderon, Nelson and Kidd are about equal. So Miller is somewhere between 9-12, to me. That makes calling him a "top-ten point guard" either true or so close to true that the difference amounts to splitting hairs.

 

[VanillaGorilla]

Arenas plays point guard full time and regardless if he has SG characteristics or not, he is a better point guard than Miller.

1. Chris Paul
2. Deron Williams
3. Tony Parker
4. Rajon Rondo
5. Derrick Rose
6. Chauncy Billups
7. Devin Harris
8. Steve Nash
9. Gilbert Arenas
10. Jason Kidd
11. Baron Davis
12. Andre Miller
13. Jose Calderon
14. Jameer Nelson
15. Mike Bibby

Just my opinion.

I'm just putting most of the players mentioned in this thread in order as I see it. I could have easily messed up towards the end and completely forgot somebody. I can see how Miller would be a top 10 PG in many peoples opinions but in my opinion he isn't.

 

[BrianFromWA]

Mike Bibby is potentially the one point guard I would start Blakey over. I'd rather have Dickau and Ridnour than Bibby---at least they know their place.

 

[B-Roy]

Nelson and Calderon are better than Miller imo.