Amnesty Clause.... Team by Team Candidates

[THE HCP]

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/7147880/nba-most-likely-amnesty-candidates

 

[THE HCP]

PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS


Most likely amnesty cut: Brandon Roy

How likely to use amnesty this season? Slam dunk

Other amnesty candidates: Marcus Camby

Analysis: If there's a more interesting amnesty conundrum out there in 2011, show us. Because of Roy's stature in the organization and the community, it's still hard to imagine Portland going through with letting him go. Rewind to his franchise-player flashes in Game 4 of the Dallas series and it gets even harder. The reality, though, is that Roy has deteriorating knees, more than $50 million guaranteed left on a cap-clogging contract that runs through 2014-15 and little else on last season's highlight reel apart from that Game 4 eruption

Although there's an undeniable sense in Rip City that the Blazers will be tempted to give Roy one more season to regain something resembling his old form, one rival exec insists that "Roy would be gone for sure if [Rich] Cho was still there" ... and that it's only a matter of time even without Cho in charge.

Cutting ties with Roy, expensive as it'll be, is the only way they can truly start over. The Blazers, if they kept him for even one more season, would have a payroll approaching $75 million when the season starts.

 

[Nikolokolus]

I'll believe it when I see it. I'm not fully convinced that the people making decisions for this team have a realistic picture of where this team actually stands in terms of competing for a deep playoff run (slim) or a title (to none).

 

[The_Lillard_King]

What is the harm of keeping him one season then using the amnesty clause on him?

 

[Mediocre Man]

Obviously this writer has no clue about our brilliant management team

 

[Mediocre Man]

What is the harm of keeping him one season then using the amnesty clause on him?

None financially. The only real issue is game play. Nate uses Roy as a crutch too much....even an injured Roy. Roy also thinks he is still one of the top 10 players in the league as well. I think for the team to be as successful as it can, the players and coaches all need to understand that LaMarcus Aldridge is the alpha, period. The offense needs to be designed around LA, take his best attributes and expose them to their fullest. Those being runs like a gazelle and able to destroy people in both the high and low blocks. Aldridge isn't a super great pick and roll guy though, and that's what Roy used to excel at. That would be my only reason to cut ties now. Another might be a potential free agent that might be available now with Roy's money

 

[Nikolokolus]

What is the harm of keeping him one season then using the amnesty clause on him?

Brandon likes the ball in his hands remember? So where does that leave the team with respect to guys like Batum and Felton who will be coming into the last year on their deals? Theoretically we'd like to see those guys in a play-making role and get an honest assessment of where they fit (or don't) as so-called "key pieces" long-term with this team. Roy hobbling around going in and out of the lineup (inevitably) and probably being a disruptive to building continuity -- whether because he's overtly demanding the ball or Nate feels compelled to play him big minutes because of his contract -- isn't likely to bear much fruit.

Roy knees aren't going to get better, they're only going to get worse and keeping him is probably just delaying the inevitable and potentially leads to short term roster issues I'd rather see this team avoid.

 

[Blazinaway]

What is the harm of keeping him one season then using the amnesty clause on him?

Harm? to PA's pocket book via Lux taxes and while in the past that may not have matteed much but we've heard things recently that may have changed, add to that that perhaps he finally has realized that as currently structured this is not a championship team so why pay the tax?

 

[The_Lillard_King]

If it is about other's players egos and playing time, I personally don't see that as a reason to dump Roy.

I bet if you ask LA if he wants Roy around, the answer would be yes. Having a player off the bench who can score in bunches quickly is a valuable role. I think Roy could be one of the best at this and if PA is willing to pay big bucks this year for that, I say do it.

the moment the Blazers need the cap space, use the AC.

 

[Nikolokolus]

If it is about other's players egos and playing time, I personally don't see that as a reason to dump Roy.

I bet if you ask LA if he wants Roy around, the answer would be yes. Having a player off the bench who can score in bunches quickly is a valuable role. I think Roy could be one of the best at this and if PA is willing to pay big bucks this year for that, I say do it.

the moment the Blazers need the cap space, use the AC.

Do you actually believe that?! Aldridge had a career year with Roy out of the lineup, why in the hell would he want to go back to playing second fiddle to a physically diminished player who doesn't appear to have accepted these new physical limitations? And it's not really about massaging egos (although there is always an element of that in any professional sport) it's more about this team building continuity and an identity they can carry forward.

As for Roy coming off the bench and "scoring in bunches quickly" All we saw of Roy last year was bunches of games with zero production followed by the occasional spike when he was able to catch lightning in a bottle. You're living in a state of denial if you think Brandon is going to be able to play much longer in this league at any kind of level I would call "above replacement level." But they certainly can't afford to pay him 15-19 million a year (not counting tax) to be a 1 in 10 games sub

 

[e_blazer]

Roy knees aren't going to get better, they're only going to get worse and keeping him is probably just delaying the inevitable and potentially leads to short term roster issues I'd rather see this team avoid.

Long term, this is correct. In the short term, it's an open question as to what Brandon will be able to do the next year or two. It's not unusual for players having major arthroscopic knee surgeries to take a season to get back to their full potential. Brandon's now had over a full year to recover from the surgery and I'd sure like to see what he can do before the Blazers cut him and end up paying him to play for an opposing team.

We should also remember that it's not the team salary that the Blazers have at the beginning of the season that determines whether PA pays luxury tax or not. It's the end of the year salary that counts. I see nothing to be lost in keeping Brandon for the first part of the season.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Long term, this is correct. In the short term, it's an open question as to what Brandon will be able to do the next year or two. It's not unusual for players having major arthroscopic knee surgeries to take a season to get back to their full potential. Brandon's now had over a full year to recover from the surgery and I'd sure like to see what he can do before the Blazers cut him and end up paying him to play for an opposing team.

We should also remember that it's not the team salary that the Blazers have at the beginning of the season that determines whether PA pays luxury tax or not. It's the end of the year salary that counts. I see nothing to be lost in keeping Brandon for the first part of the season.

Potentially a free agent ...

 

[The_Lillard_King]

Do you actually believe that?! Aldridge had a career year with Roy out of the lineup, why in the hell would he want to go back to playing second fiddle to a physically diminished player who doesn't appear to have accepted these new physical limitations? And it's not really about massaging egos (although there is always an element of that in any professional sport) it's more about this team building continuity and an identity they can carry forward.

As for Roy coming off the bench and "scoring in bunches quickly" All we saw of Roy last year was bunches of games with zero production followed by the occasional spike when he was able to catch lightning in a bottle. You're living in a state of denial if you think Brandon is going to be able to play much longer in this league at any kind of level I would call "above replacement level." But they certainly can't afford to pay him 15-19 million a year (not counting tax) to be a 1 in 10 games sub

I do beleive Aldrdige wants Roy as it showed that he wore down always being the man and he even spoke of wearing down and glad Roy was there to take some pressure off. Maybe he is lying, but I don't think so. (No one is saying Aldrdige would be second fiddle?!)

I understand you feel very strong about your opinion, but now you seem to only see it one way . . to the point if management doesn't see it your way, they are not realistic about the situation (they only get paid six figures to think about this each day but apparently they don't understand and aren't as realistic about the team as you are ). A little out of control with your opinion?

 

[e_blazer]

Potentially a free agent ...

There's not going to be any cap space unless the Blazers waive Roy and let Oden go by not matching another team's offer. I don't see that happening this year. Next year, with Camby coming off the books, a new GM could have some room to look for a significant FA if Brandon were waived.

 

[Nikolokolus]

A little out of control with what opinion(s)?

I firmly believe that Roy is done as high level performer (in both consistency and peak production)
I firmly believe that keeping Roy and going over the cap is a bad play when the opportunity cost is a potentially useful free agent (Freeland maybe?)

Believe it or not I actually root for the Blazers. When I believe the team keeping players hurts their chances of success then I'm an advocate for them getting rid of that player. In Roy's case I can see a lot of reasons to get rid of him (finances, team chemistry, production) and only one reason to keep him (sentimentality) so it's a simple matter of weighing pros vs. cons to come to a conclusion about what I'd like to see done.

 

[Nikolokolus]

There's not going to be any cap space unless the Blazers waive Roy and let Oden go by not matching another team's offer. I don't see that happening this year. Next year, with Camby coming off the books, a new GM could have some room to look for a significant FA if Brandon were waived.

They still have a mid-level exception, but they won't be able to use it with Roy pushing them over the tax line.

 

[The_Lillard_King]

A little out of control with what opinion(s)?

I firmly believe that Roy is done as high level performer (in both consistency and peak production)
I firmly believe that keeping Roy and going over the cap is a bad play when the opportunity cost is a potentially useful free agent (Freeland maybe?)

Believe it or not I actually root for the Blazers. When I believe the team keeping players hurts their chances of success then I'm an advocate for them getting rid of that player. In Roy's case I can see a lot of reasons to get rid of him (finances, team chemistry, production) and only one reason to keep him (sentimentality) so it's a simple matter of weighing pros vs. cons to come to a conclusion about what I'd like to see done.

And if management doesn't do what you think should be done, then they clearly don't have a grasp on the reality of the sitaution.

 

[Nikolokolus]

And if management doesn't do what you think should be done, then they clearly don't have a grasp on the reality of the sitaution.

You're putting words in my mouth, but regardless, show me the bit where you think Portland's management has been the picture of consistency and sound decision making over the years?

 

[3RA1N1AC]

They still have a mid-level exception, but they won't be able to use it with Roy pushing them over the tax line.

is that a new rule in the new cba? or are you just speculating?

 

[Nikolokolus]

is that a new rule in the new cba? or are you just speculating?

I'm just going off what appears to be the areas of agreement (outlined in an SI online article recently). Teams will still have the mid-level at 5 million a year, and there apparently won't be a hard cap in the new CBA ... it's just going to be very, very expensive. So theoretically it's not that they "can't" use the MLE if Roy is on the roster, but if they use the MLE while over the tax line but they might end up paying somewhere around 200% in tax which would be insanity for a team that looks to be a second tier playoff contender.

 

[The_Lillard_King]

You're putting words in my mouth, but regardless, show me the bit where you think Portland's management has been the picture of consistency and sound decision making over the years?

Maybe I missed interpreted this statement:

I'm not fully convinced that the people making decisions for this team have a realistic picture of where this team actually stands in terms of competing for a deep playoff run (slim) or a title (to none).

I read that statement saying if management keeps Roy they aren't being realistic about the situation.

I'm not saying that Portland management has been picture of consistentcy and sound decision making. They have guided the Blazers to three staright playoff appearances and were able to get Wallace as another piece to the team. But they have made many mistakes too.

I get saying keeping Roy would be a mistake, I think it is a stretch to say management doesn't have a realistic picture of the Blazer situation, IMO.

 

[3RA1N1AC]

it's not that they "can't" use the MLE if Roy is on the roster, but if they use the MLE while over the tax line but they might end up paying somewhere around 200% in tax

i dont think PA will care, if he thinks it will improve the team, especially if they have a year or two to decide

 

[Nikolokolus]

i dont think PA will care, if he thinks it will improve the team, especially if they have a year or two to decide

In the past I'd agree, but he's been front and center in these negotiations as one of the so-called "hardliners" pushing for a greater share of BRI ... does that sound like Allen the free-spender to you?

 

[3RA1N1AC]

In the past I'd agree, but he's been front and center in these negotiations as one of the so-called "hardliners" pushing for a greater share of BRI ... does that sound like Allen the free-spender to you?

wait, so allen isnt a free spender? ill believe it when i see it

id guess he wants the penalty to be harsher so that he is the only one who can afford it

 

[Nikolokolus]

wait, so allen isnt a free spender? ill believe it when i see it

id guess he wants the penalty to be harsher so that he is the only one who can afford it

I'm saying it looks like he might be laying the foundation for an era of moderation. He's burned through a lot of cash with almost nothing to show for it.

 

[3RA1N1AC]

I'm saying it looks like he might be laying the foundation for an era of moderation.

like i said, ill believe it when i see it, if you want to believe it beforehand, be my guest

dont use the amnesty and i vote landry for the mle

 

[Charcoal Filtered]

like i said, ill believe it when i see it, if you want to believe it beforehand, be my guest

Yep, I agree.

We thought when Patterson was hired, he was going to tighten the wallet. Then, he gives Theo and Miles those huge extensions. When RLEC was not traded, it was again thought that we were being more fiscally responsible. PA then gives Camby that extension, trades for GW, and paid 2M to move up in the second round to grab Armon Johnson. PA is sort of like someone on a diet that does great until they starve themselves and go to the store. They then end up buying the store.

After reading Idea Man, it would seem that being fiscally conservative is the way Paul is leaning. History says otherwise.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

Camby on the list is stupid.

MCEC!

Oh wait, this management never does anything with large expiring deals.

 

[jlprk]

In 2005, the Blazers used the amnesty clause to waive guard Derek Anderson, who was owed $18.8 million over two seasons. Anderson then was signed by Houston, which got him for $1.67 million over two years.

That's the other side of amnesty -- creating a bargain bin of players who can be had for minimum salaries as they are still being paid by their old teams.

Here's an interesting option for the Blazers: Travis Outlaw. The Nets signed him to a five-year deal in 2010 and still owe him $24 million over four years. ESPN, in its team-by-team list of amnesty candidates, has Outlaw as a slam dunk to be waived. Certainly, the Blazers would not sign Outlaw for $6 million a season. But for a minimum salary, to see if he can recapture his old role of an effective "stretch" power forward off the bench? That's worth considering, especially after the Blazers' second unit struggled to score so often last season.

Also potentially in the bargain bin: Rashard Lewis, Gilbert Arenas, Mehmet Okur, Richard Jefferson, Andres Nocioni, Mike Miller, Beno Udrich, Luke Walton, Al Harrington, Baron Davis and Marvin Williams.

http://www.oregonlive.com/nba/index.ssf/2011/10/nba_high-5_92.html

Let's pick up 4 or 5 or 10 of those guys for close to the veterans' minimum!

 

[The_Lillard_King]

http://www.oregonlive.com/nba/index.ssf/2011/10/nba_high-5_92.html

Let's pick up 4 or 5 or 10 of those guys for close to the veterans' minimum!

Sounds good, only why would they want to come to Ptd. I'm guessing Miami, Boston or LA is on these player's short list.

On the flip side, Roy in LA for the mimimun would be a crime.