An entirely too early minutes breakdown... tear it apart

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Ed O

Ed O

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This is building a sand castle, waiting for the tide to come in, but here's how I'd currently break out minutes distribution for the current roster... where am I totally wrong?

upload_2023-6-23_6-26-51.png

Some notes:
  • Roster
    • I count us retaining Grant, Thybulle, and Eubanks
    • I have us let Winslow, Mays, and other random dudes go
    • I didn't include Johnson or Rupert, even though they probably will be on the roster
    • I didn't assume any other trades or additions
  • Minutes general thinking
    • I started with a baseline of 70 games played each. That seems like a reasonable "healthy season" starting point. Obviously some will play more games, and unfortunately some will play fewer... probably markedly fewer.
    • This doesn't account for any OT games, so a couple of those would add in more minutes
    • There's not really many "garbage minutes" here set aside. There are about 80 minutes unaccounted for, which is just under one minute a game
  • Changes from last year
    • I introduced Scoot at 22 mpg, which is about as many minutes as Sharpe got this year over 80 games, including the tanking efforts where he played a lot more than he otherwise would have
    • I gave Murray 12 mpg... a stab in the dark
    • I scaled back Dame and Grant, since they are a bit older and we'd want to help keep them healthy for the playoffs
    • I scaled back Ant a bit, mainly because we're deeper in the back court. 32 mpg is still pretty substantial
    • Thybulle takes the biggest haircut, which is because I think he's just not very good. He averaged 16.9 mpg overall last year, which was his career low. 16 minutes is probably a bit too low, but it's what I think makes the most sense.
    • Sharpe, Walker, and Watford take the biggest jumps in MPG. With our current roster we need quality time from Walker and Watford and I think they can earn minutes in the front court.
There are SO MANY THINGS that I know I got wrong. I probably have typos. I probably am wrong about what the roster is going to be like. You probably think it's ridiculous to think of Little playing two minutes a game at PF. It's OK. I'm not married to this by any means but I'd love to hear what you think of it.
 
Mediocre Man said:
Too early
Click to expand...
Why?

People are saying there aren't enough minutes for Dame/Scoot/Ant/Sharpe. Is it too early to say that?

It seems like I'm laying out a scenario that gives plenty of minutes for those four guys, and unless we add another guard that won't change whether it's today or September.
 
Why are there 56 minutes at all the positions? Lots of double OT games? :bgrin:
 
I can see Murray having significantly more than 12 per game, rest seem ok for now.
 
I’d like people to take note that it’s not actually too early for this.
 
I'd put more of Sharpe's minutes at SF if all 4 of himself, Dame/Scoot/Ant are active for a game. So probably 20 minutes at SF and 12 at SG - which thus gets Scoot closer to 30 mpg.

But the odds they are all healthy isn't that high - especially after the first 15 games of the season. I'd say probably 65% chance someone is missing any single game after that. The team could afford to sit guys more often if they have minor injuries vs prior years having to play so Keon isn't starting at PG.

So even if Scoot starts closer to 22 mpgs - he will probably have many games someone is out and he is playing 30-35mpg.

I really don't think the minutes crunch for Dame/Ant/Scoot/Sharpe next season is a big deal. If all 4 play and Scoot/Sharpe prove they deserve to start it could potentially be an issue before the 2024-25 season. But next year should be fine.

Much more of an issue is who are the frontcourt/center players the Blazers can have on the roster to play those other minutes and provide some defense? The quad group has all the scoring covered - we need defense from the frontcourt. Also we need legit tall centers if Nurk predictably misses more time. Eubanks is better as a 3rd string guy than a key primary backup.
 
main thing is Ant gets all his minutes on another team
 
TBpup said:
Why are there 56 minutes at all the positions? Lots of double OT games? :bgrin:
Click to expand...
Because they only play 70 games each, rather than 82.

82 * 48 = 3936
70 * 56 = 3920
 
SharpesTriumph said:
Much more of an issue is who are the frontcourt/center players the Blazers can have on the roster to play those other minutes and provide some defense? The quad group has all the scoring covered - we need defense from the frontcourt. Also we need legit tall centers if Nurk predictably misses more time. Eubanks is better as a 3rd string guy than a key primary backup.
Click to expand...
That's the thing that jumps out to me, too, more than "too many good guards with not enough minutes". I actually initially slugged in a "Free Agent Big" placeholder, but in the spirit of doing my best with what we have now, I decided not to do it.

Relying on Walker and Watford seems a bit foolhardy, but that's not exactly sticking my neck out by saying that.
 
Billups needs rookies to bench, while the camera zooms in on him giving young players in-game on court lectures. Makes Chauncey look like a real NBA coach.

Plenty more rookies on the team now.
 
Whyachi said:
Billups needs rookies to bench, while the camera zooms in on him giving young players in-game on court lectures. Makes Chauncey look like a real NBA coach.

Plenty more rookies on the team now.
Click to expand...
I actually was thinking about that... how likely is he to give even Scoot 22 minutes a game, assuming the team doesn't have to tank again 75% of the way through the season? It'll be interesting to see.
 
Ed O said:
I actually was thinking about that... how likely is he to give even Scoot 22 minutes a game, assuming the team doesn't have to tank again 75% of the way through the season? It'll be interesting to see.
Click to expand...

Unless we're tanking, I hope Billups isn't giving anyone minutes, but that guys like Scoot can earn them in practice and/or by producing in games.
 
Ed O said:
This is building a sand castle, waiting for the tide to come in, but here's how I'd currently break out minutes distribution for the current roster... where am I totally wrong?

View attachment 56301

Some notes:
  • Roster
    • I count us retaining Grant, Thybulle, and Eubanks
    • I have us let Winslow, Mays, and other random dudes go
    • I didn't include Johnson or Rupert, even though they probably will be on the roster
    • I didn't assume any other trades or additions
  • Minutes general thinking
    • I started with a baseline of 70 games played each. That seems like a reasonable "healthy season" starting point. Obviously some will play more games, and unfortunately some will play fewer... probably markedly fewer.
    • This doesn't account for any OT games, so a couple of those would add in more minutes
    • There's not really many "garbage minutes" here set aside. There are about 80 minutes unaccounted for, which is just under one minute a game
  • Changes from last year
    • I introduced Scoot at 22 mpg, which is about as many minutes as Sharpe got this year over 80 games, including the tanking efforts where he played a lot more than he otherwise would have
    • I gave Murray 12 mpg... a stab in the dark
    • I scaled back Dame and Grant, since they are a bit older and we'd want to help keep them healthy for the playoffs
    • I scaled back Ant a bit, mainly because we're deeper in the back court. 32 mpg is still pretty substantial
    • Thybulle takes the biggest haircut, which is because I think he's just not very good. He averaged 16.9 mpg overall last year, which was his career low. 16 minutes is probably a bit too low, but it's what I think makes the most sense.
    • Sharpe, Walker, and Watford take the biggest jumps in MPG. With our current roster we need quality time from Walker and Watford and I think they can earn minutes in the front court.
There are SO MANY THINGS that I know I got wrong. I probably have typos. I probably am wrong about what the roster is going to be like. You probably think it's ridiculous to think of Little playing two minutes a game at PF. It's OK. I'm not married to this by any means but I'd love to hear what you think of it.
Click to expand...

Great effort. As you mentioned, this entire thing has to be based off a decent amount of assumptions, but it clearly paints the picture that the roster is:
  1. Unbalanced
  2. Not talented enough to compete
  3. Lacking enough quality on-ball defenders
 
Ed O said:
Why?

People are saying there aren't enough minutes for Dame/Scoot/Ant/Sharpe. Is it too early to say that?

It seems like I'm laying out a scenario that gives plenty of minutes for those four guys, and unless we add another guard that won't change whether it's today or September.
Click to expand...
Joe specifically mentioned trades a couple of times last night. It’s my opinion that someone, likely Ant, will be moved
 
Tince said:
Unless we're tanking, I hope Billups isn't giving anyone minutes, but that guys like Scoot can earn them in practice and/or by producing in games.
Click to expand...
"Give" and "earn" aren't different in my mind, since only one person makes the determination of who plays: Billups.
 
I can already hear the screaming when Cronin moves Ant for what his value is, not what some think his value is
 
Mediocre Man said:
Joe specifically mentioned trades a couple of times last night. It’s my opinion that someone, likely Ant, will be moved
Click to expand...
Oh, Cronin said he was gonna make a trade?

And we are still believing him?

you-sure-about-that.jpg
 
wizenheimer said:
I can already hear the screaming when Cronin moves Ant for what his value is, not what some think his value is
Click to expand...
Just like the screaming when the Blazers traded the third pick for immediate help?

Or when the Blazers traded #7 last year to Toronto for immediate help?

It's hilarious how you are already taking a victory lap for something that hasn't happened and yet you know not only what the team will get but also how people will react. You're a wizard.
 
Ed O said:
I actually was thinking about that... how likely is he to give even Scoot 22 minutes a game, assuming the team doesn't have to tank again 75% of the way through the season? It'll be interesting to see.
Click to expand...

the trade Nassir movement has picked up steam. Shaedon and Scoot can split time at small ball 3, if this is the roster to begin next season.
 
PDXFonz said:
I’d like people to take note that it’s not actually too early for this.
Click to expand...
Same. If Chauncey doesn't already have some version of this on a notepad or whiteboard somewhere, it's "Nate asking Canzano for help"-level negligence.
 
Ed O said:
Relying on Walker and Watford seems a bit foolhardy, but that's not exactly sticking my neck out by saying that.
Click to expand...

I expect another step forward for Watford. I think if you play him with Dame and other starters he would compliment them. But so far because of injuries he has been asked to do too much. Put him next to the right center and some shooters and he could contribute. He has skills
 
Ed O said:
Just like the screaming when the Blazers traded the third pick for immediate help?

Or when the Blazers traded #7 last year to Toronto for immediate help?

It's hilarious how you are already taking a victory lap for something that hasn't happened and yet you know not only what the team will get but also how people will react. You're a wizard.
Click to expand...

and it's amazing how dramatically you misinterpret posts to launch your straw men
 
Whyachi said:
the trade Nassir movement has picked up steam. Shaedon and Scoot can split time at small ball 3, if this is the roster to begin next season.
Click to expand...

Recipe for disaster and certainly no the growth that is needed by both players playing their natural position.
 
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