Anyone Still Thinking 50+ Wins?

[Foulzilla]

Hmm, I'm just the opposite. I came into the season predicting less than 50 wins. I actually had them pegged for 47-48 wins. The early season has led me to believe that I may have underestimated them.

Yeah, I'm in the same boat. I've been very pleased. I was thinking 48-50, now I'm thinking maybe more.

 

[MrJayremmie]

Every time someone mentions that we have Bayless sittin' on the bench waiting his turn i get soo excited. He is going to be special man... people like Chad Ford were callin' him a thinking man's Monta Ellis. And watching him play during the fan fest, then the preseason and then a little this year, he really looks like a distributer to me, unless Nate puts him in there to give us a scoring lift at the 2. He has been AWESOME at getting past his man and gettin' in the lane and dishing it out to our shooters like LMA, Rudy and Travis. Ya'll should watch stuff like the Fan Fest highlights. Bayless is going to be just what we need. I hope he gets a chance to play.

And when we gave him minutes, he looked GREAT in that game vs i forget who when he got 15 points, 7 rebounds and 7 assists.

 

[STOMP]

Yep still shooting for 55+.

me too. Thats been my best guess record wise if the team is lucky enough to avoid the injury bug.

1/8th of the season down and they're right on course considering their schedule

STOMP

 

[LittleAlex]

I dunno. Originally, I was forecasting 52-53 wins. Now that they've played 10, barring a significant trade, I'm coming down a bit to 47-48.

We're a good team, just not that good. Know-what-I-mean?

Blake is more so-so than I was hoping; Sergio's not quite there yet; we're still relying too much on the long ball, Oden still looks relatively awkward; Frye's over-rated; Travis still looks too helter-skelter for my ease; we still struggle guarding the perimeter; etc., etc., etc...............

I think I need your definition of a good team. Just about every team in the league has a couple of weak links and Oden is going to be just fine.

As for defensive statistics, remember last year when Denver was statistically a top 10 defensive team. Did that mirror reality in any way?

 

[oldguy]

I'm just the opposite. The fact that the Blazers are 6-4 after the starting schedule they've had, plus the injury to Oden, makes me feel like the odds of winning 50-plus have increased.

+1

 

[STOMP]

Blake has been about what I expected, not sure why you think a disappointment, but nobody was counting on him doing too much regardless, so little "loss" there.

Sergio isn't there, but who penciled him in for anything other than what he has done? We still have Bayless smoldering on the bench, ready for his shot. So, the depth will carry us through injuries that will level other teams.

Oden looks awkward because he is out of game shape. Give him a month before you form any opinions. And as Oden has played limited minutes, we have got GREAT contribution from Joel in his stead. So our dropoff from lack of quality time from our franchise center has been far less than other team's in this situation.

Frye has not been good. But more then made up by the unexpectedly stellar play of rookie Rudy Fernandez.

Travis has been fine, the usual Travis, with a little extra in a couple of games. Not sure why you think that is bad. In addition, we have found a contributor in Batum, that gives the coach options.

Really, the guy who seems a little lost so far is not Blake or Travis or Frye, it has been Aldridge. He needs to figure out how to be a consistent force.

Dude, we started with the toughest schedule in NBA history, and are coming out of it above .500. We have Oden working his way back, to hopefully help through the rest of the toughest part of the Blazer's season. If they can gut through this stretch as well as they already have, they would have the wind at their backs for an opportunity to pick up a bunch of games in the standings.

Roy has also been less then hoped for thus far. Compared to last year he's getting the same minutes but down in FG%, Rbs, Assts, and had his TOs increase. That Roy Aldridge and Oden could/should be better as the season goes along bodes well IMO

STOMP

 

[The_Lillard_King]

After this start. I'm no longer thinking 50+ wins . . . I'm thinking 60+ wins.

 

[andalusian]

Roy has also been less then hoped for thus far. Compared to last year he's getting the same minutes but down in FG%, Rbs, Assts, and had his TOs increase. That Roy Aldridge and Oden could/should be better as the season goes along bodes well IMO

Well,

I think that Rudy doing some of the distributing is taking some of Roy's assists away - and he is a lot more aggressive looking for his own shot taking over - this would lead to a higher scoring load (which he has done) - but less FG%, EFG% etc... - that's to be expected.

Personally, I think this is a good thing - he is our best player and he needs to be aggressive. Rebounding is again not a concern to me - the entire team seems to be more determined to get rebounds - TO, Greg and Rudy get a lot of rebounds - even LaMarcus seems to put some kind of an emphasis on rebounding - he rebounds less that last year - but he is always playing next to a dominant rebounder big man now (vs. only 1/2 a game last year) - and his rebounding rate is only 1 less rebound per 36 minutes. Not bad, It think.

 

[RW#30]

After this start. I'm no longer thinking 50+ wins . . . I'm thinking 60+ wins.

I am thinking 78-4

I predicted 53 wins. After seeing Oden playing and getting more comfortable, I say 53 will be a breeze.

 

[elcap15]

48 wins seems just right to me.

 

[Masbee]

Roy has also been less then hoped for thus far. Compared to last year he's getting the same minutes but down in FG%, Rbs, Assts, and had his TOs increase. That Roy Aldridge and Oden could/should be better as the season goes along bodes well IMO

STOMP

All those stats you quote as being down are only slightly down, and thus has little game impact.

There is one stat you missed that is having a HUGE impact on the games (so far). Last season Roy averaged 3.8 made Free Throws per game. This season that number has been 5.8.

Roy is taking it strong to the bucket more often (in part to compensate for some poor shooting performances) and the officials seem to show him more love than in the past (he is a "star" now). When he gets to the line he is knocking them down at a better clip.

That is why his PER this season is 22.0, compared to 19.4 last season (when he was voted to the All-Star game).

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/r/roybr01.html

 

[gatorpops]

I see no reason for this team to regress from where they are now.

They have Webster coming back soon.

They have Oden getting better.

They have 4, count them, rookies to teach and assimilate into the team and doing rather well so far.

They have ten of the toughest games behind them.

They showed last year that they can learn and improve a lot.

They have a great work ethic.

They are hungry.

I say they get the 50 wins I predicted at least, this year. I think they would disappoint me if they do not.

g

 

[Ed O]

All those stats you quote as being down are only slightly down, and thus has little game impact.

What's our pace so far this season? I think I just read that the league is down 2 possessions a game on the whole, and Portland is at, like, -2.3 possessions a game.

Those fewer possessions impact points and rebounds and assists, etc.

Ed O.

 

[Masbee]

What's our pace so far this season? I think I just read that the league is down 2 possessions a game on the whole, and Portland is at, like, -2.3 possessions a game.

Those fewer possessions impact points and rebounds and assists, etc.

Ed O.

▪ Pace Factor: 85.1 (30th of 30)
Offensive Rating: 110.0 (3rd of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 111.8 (29th of 30)

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/POR/2009.html

Pace = last. Yipee.

You can see how slowing down the pace improves the team defense.

Rating 3rd in offense after playing the teams we have is pretty damn impressive though.

Last season 07-08:

▪ Pace Factor: 87.9 (29th of 30)
Offensive Rating: 107.3 (14th of 30) ▪ Defensive Rating: 108.4 (17th of 30)

 

[mook]

All those stats you quote as being down are only slightly down, and thus has little game impact.

There is one stat you missed that is having a HUGE impact on the games (so far). Last season Roy averaged 3.8 made Free Throws per game. This season that number has been 5.8.

Roy is taking it strong to the bucket more often (in part to compensate for some poor shooting performances) and the officials seem to show him more love than in the past (he is a "star" now). When he gets to the line he is knocking them down at a better clip.

That is why his PER this season is 22.0, compared to 19.4 last season (when he was voted to the All-Star game).

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/r/roybr01.html

Really interesting point. I hadn't noticed the increase in free throws, but you are definitely right. As Oden gets more minutes and gets the other team in the penalty earlier, I look for Roy's free throw numbers to only go up.

Remember the Finals series where Wade got free throws because somebody sneezed on him? Remember how we used to hate Shaq because everything he did was a foul on both teams (and yet he never got whistled)? I think I'm going to finally be over all that.

As long as the NBA cheats, it's nice to have it cheat in your favor.

 

[Minstrel]

As long as the NBA cheats, it's nice to have it cheat in your favor.

Amen to that.

 

[Natebishop3]

They have 4, count them, rookies to teach and assimilate into the team and doing rather well so far.

I think a lot of people forget that Rudy, Oden, Batum, and Bayless are all rookies. The Fab Four.

 

[elcap15]

The first half of the season wasnt the Blazers problem last year either. You guys better hope the rookies dont hit the wall.

 

[Foulzilla]

The first half of the season wasnt the Blazers problem last year either. You guys better hope the rookies dont hit the wall.

I dunno about that. Wasn't Portland like 5-13 or something like that before they ran off the win streak? I'd call 5-13 a problem.

 

[elcap15]

I dunno about that. Wasn't Portland like 5-13 or something like that before they ran off the win streak? I'd call 5-13 a problem.

good point.

 

[Boob-No-More]

The first half of the season wasnt the Blazers problem last year either. You guys better hope the rookies dont hit the wall.

Well, it was and it wasn't. Last season our first half schedule was MUCH easier than our second half schedule. This year, the opposite is true. Last year, in spite of the easier schedule, the Blazers started the season 5 - 12. They then won 13 in a row, again thanks to a highly favorable schedule (10 of 13 at home, no long road trips).

The reason they didn't do as well later in the season had nothing to do with hitting any wall. It was the result of a much tougher schedule with multiple long road trips. This team's biggest problem last season was winning on the road. So, far this season, they are doing much better on the road. Last season they didn't get their first road win until early December. They had three this year by mid-November.

So, last season they started 5 - 12 with an easier schedule and this year they are 6 - 4 with a brutal schedule - and injuries to two starters. With the more favorable 2nd half schedule, I'm expecting them to finish out the season much stronger this year than last.

BNM

 

[Pinwheel1]

Well...

I predicted 46-48 as well. However everyone but Martel is playing better or the same as i expected(Batum, Rudy, Segio all better) Oden in the last two games equals my expectation as does Travis, LA, Roy, Joel, and Blake.

I still think we will struggle for the next few weeks though. Then come alive in Mid December

 

[elcap15]

48 wins is a big step in the right direction and shouldnt be looked at as a disappointment. That is freakin 14 games over 500! I also think that should be good enough for at least 7th in the West.

 

[KingSpeed]

60-22