Anyone wanna address the elephant in the room??

[blue9]

I would also add that the real focus is to force teams to take long twos. You start by eliminating threes. Check! Next, you eliminate points at the rim. Not-so-check. We're better than we were last year with Hickson, but we have a ways to go.

Currently teams are shooting 42% of their shots against us within 5' of the hoop and they're scoring on 59% of those attempts.
Last season teams shot 43% of their shots within 5' of the hoop and scored on 60% of those attempts.

So, the difference between Lopez and Hickson (1%) isn't that great. Perhaps a stats major can tell us if 1% is even statistically relevant at this point in the season?

 

[Boise Blazer]

BNM is pointing out that Portland is using a system that focuses on both ends of the floor on three point shooting. He's not saying that if we just stop 3's, we'll win. The system is predicated on stopping threes and making a shit-ton of them on the other end. No effort was made in that reply to address our own three point shooting. I suspect a lot of those lotto teams with great 3pt% defense happen to be pretty lousy at shooting threes, unlike Portland.

I would also add that the real focus is to force teams to take long twos. You start by eliminating threes. Check! Next, you eliminate points at the rim. Not-so-check. We're better than we were last year with Hickson, but we have a ways to go. Now that they've got opponent 3pt% dialed in as well as any team can hope to, I hope they start moving the focus to rim protection. You have to guard the three point shot, but if it's clear the guy with the ball is going to force it to the rim we need to sag off, and in a hurry.

Agreed. Im not sure why some people seem to think that just because we are focusing on defending 3's that in turn that means that we arent trying to get better with our interior defense or that we wont in fact actually get better as the season goes on.

 

[Boob-No-More]

I'd just like to point out that ORL tried this already, and they actually did it the right way by putting a guy in the middle who could dominate the paint. And it didn't quite work out for them. I don't see how a worse version of that system, in a much stronger conference, is expected to have better results.
With that said, if we could somehow ride this system to the Finals I'd be ecstatic! I just think it's a seriously flawed system AND a flawed roster to implement that system.

Worse in what way? Better results??? Orlando made the finals that year. The ONLY better result would be to win the NBA championship. Please show me where I predicted that level of success. Right now, given recent history, I'd be happy to make the playoffs and ecstatic to advance to the second round.

Sure, Orlando had a better rim protector with Dwight Howard in his prime. That was their biggest strength. But Portland (so far) is VASTLY superior to that Orlando team in both 3FG% and Opp 3FG%. That is our biggest strength.

2013-14 Portland Trail Blazers:
3FG% = 42
Opp 3FG = 29
Diff = +13

2008-09 Orlando Magic:
3FG% = 38.1
Opp 3FG = 34.2
Diff = +3.9

So yeah, Orlando had better post defense, but Portland is WAY, WAY better at making and denying the 3.

Plus, just look at the rosters (beyond Dwight):

Power Forward:
Portland: LaMarcus Aldridge, 22.2ppg, 9.3rpg, PER = 19.9
Orlando: Rashard Lewis: 17.7ppg, 5.7rpg, PER = 16.8
Huge Advantage Portland

Small Forward:
Portland: Nicolas Batum, 14.1ppg, 6.4rpg, 5.3apg PER = 17.1
Orlando: Hedo Turkoglu: 16.8ppg, 5.3rpg, 4.9apg PER = 14.8
Advantage Portland

Shooting Guard:
Portland: Wesley Matthews, 15.2ppg, 5.1rpg, 1.7apg PER = 18.0
Orlando: Courtney Lee: 8.4ppg, 2.3rpg, 1.2apg PER = 10.7
Huge Advantage Portland

Point Guard:
Portland: Damian Lillard, 20.1ppg, 4.8rpg, 5.8apg PER = 18.7
Orlando: Jameer Nelson: 16.7ppg, 3.5rpg, 5.4apg PER = 20.6

I was all set to call this one a draw. Lillard obviously has better raw stats, but Nelson shot the ball incredibly well that season (.503 FG%, .453 FG%). Then I remembered Nelson was injured and missed the entire second half of the season and the first three rounds of the playoffs. He did come back for the finals against the Lakers, but didn't start and flat out sucked (PER 4.9, 'nuff said). If we really want to get a good comparison of starting PGs, we really need to also consider Nelson's replacement for the second half of the season and the playoffs.

Orlando: Rafer Alston: 12.0ppg, 2.9rpg, 5.1apg PER = 15.6
Advantage Portland

So, other than the obvious fact that Orlando had the best center in the game at that time, the rest of the Portland starters are significantly better than the Orlando starters.

The benches are also interesting. Orlando's best bench player was Marcin Gortat. While not exactly a poor man's Dwight Howard, Gortat did replicate the strengths of Howard's game - good rebounding and good interior defense. The problem is, playing behind Howard, his minutes were limited to 12.6mpg.

At the wing and guard position, Portland's bench is far superior to Orlando's. So, our bench is built on our strengths: 3-point shooting and denying the 3.

Of course, that Orlando team won 59 games and made it to the NBA finals. I'm not saying we will equal that success, but if that's who you're comparing us to, I'll take it.

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

Currently teams are shooting 42% of their shots against us within 5' of the hoop and they're scoring on 59% of those attempts.
Last season teams shot 43% of their shots within 5' of the hoop and scored on 60% of those attempts.

So, the difference between Lopez and Hickson (1%) isn't that great. Perhaps a stats major can tell us if 1% is even statistically relevant at this point in the season?

The difference is last season, we doubled more and played more aggressive help defense. Hickson had more help, but at the expense of the rest of our defense.

BNM

 

[blue9]

Agreed. Im not sure why some people seem to think that just because we are focusing on defending 3's that in turn that means that we arent trying to get better with our interior defense or that we wont in fact actually get better as the season goes on.

Speaking for myself, I don't think we're purposely allowing points in the paint, and I don't think we're satisfied with our defense. I'm just pointing out that, to this point, our defense ISN'T working how Stotts wants it to and that the interior defense really isn't any better than it was last year. It's disingenuous to say that great 3-point defense is key to winning. As illustrated in the "rebuttal" post, those teams that were great at defending the 3-point line were also great at defending that basket.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Speaking for myself, I don't think we're purposely allowing points in the paint, and I don't think we're satisfied with our defense. I'm just pointing out that, to this point, our defense ISN'T working how Stotts wants it to and that the interior defense really isn't any better than it was last year. It's disingenuous to say that great 3-point defense is key to winning. As illustrated in the "rebuttal" post, those teams that were great at defending the 3-point line were also great at defending that basket.

I think you can definitely win a lot of regular season games that way ... it won't stand up in a 7 game playoff series however.

 

[blue9]

The difference is last season, we doubled more and played more aggressive help defense. Hickson had more help, but at the expense of the rest of our defense.

BNM

I understand that. But the results are fairly similar.

Location---------13/14-------------12/13

<5'---------------42% (59%)------43% (60%)
5-9'--------------14% (43%)-------11% (45%)
10-14'-------------6% (40%)--------8% (42%)
15-19'------------18% (39%)------16% (40%)
3pt----------------20% (34%)------22% (37%)

The first % is the attempts made, the second (%) is how often they connect on those shots. I don't know if any of the differences are statistically significant at this point, but only the 5-9' and 3pt appear to have enough separation to say that there's a difference in the defensive results.

Granted, we're only 10 games into the season so much can change over the next 72 games. I hope it does! I certainly like Lopez in the middle, and this winning streak is nice. I'm just concerned about being able to sustain our shooting and improve our defense.

 

[Boob-No-More]

BNM is pointing out that Portland is using a system that focuses on both ends of the floor on three point shooting. He's not saying that if we just stop 3's, we'll win. The system is predicated on stopping threes and making a shit-ton of them on the other end. No effort was made in that reply to address our own three point shooting. I suspect a lot of those lotto teams with great 3pt% defense happen to be pretty lousy at shooting threes, unlike Portland.

I would also add that the real focus is to force teams to take long twos. You start by eliminating threes. Check! Next, you eliminate points at the rim. Not-so-check. We're better than we were last year with Hickson, but we have a ways to go. Now that they've got opponent 3pt% dialed in as well as any team can hope to, I hope they start moving the focus to rim protection. You have to guard the three point shot, but if it's clear the guy with the ball is going to force it to the rim we need to sag off, and in a hurry.

Yep, it's a work in progress. We have a new starting center, an entirely different bench and a new defensive scheme. It takes a while to get it all to click. With all the changes, I'm very pleasantly surprised we are off to an 8-2 start. Look at how poorly other teams are adjusting to significant changes in personnel and coaching.

Yes, our interior defense needs to improve, but not at the expense of giving up wide open 3-pointers. As the season progresses, I'd like to see more situational help defense and maybe double teaming - depending on the match-ups. When the other team plays a stretch 4 that can hit the 3 (like Ryan Anderson), Aldridge will need to stay on his man and not leave him open at the 3-point line, but when playing a team with a low post banger at the 4, Aldridge can help Lopez (and vise-versa). When the other team has a weak shooting 2 or 3, Wes and Nic can cheat off and double team the dominant low post threat. I think and hope this type of situational awareness will come as the players get more comfortable with the system and more comfortable playing with Robin Lopez.

BTW, I also think the lack of double teaming has helped out team rebonding. Last season, LaMarcus often left his man to help Hickson, which then allowed Aldridge's man to crash the offensive boards uncontested. This year, with no double teaming and everyone staying at home on their man, our team rebounding is MUCH better than last season.

BNM

 

[blue9]

I think you can definitely win a lot of regular season games that way ... it won't stand up in a 7 game playoff series however.

Yeah, I suppose I should be specific that my concern is playoffs, not regular season. I think this team can win a lot of regular season games, and maybe even get to the second round, but I don't think it's built to contend. We've seen teams deploy better versions of what we're trying to do, and only DAL got lucky on a blue moon. I would never model a team after the Mavs.

 

[HailBlazers]

Yeah, I suppose I should be specific that my concern is playoffs, not regular season. I think this team can win a lot of regular season games, and maybe even get to the second round, but I don't think it's built to contend. We've seen teams deploy better versions of what we're trying to do, and only DAL got lucky on a blue moon. I would never model a team after the Mavs.

We are in a small market, why not? No superstar free agent is coming here.

 

[blue9]

We are in a small market, why not? No superstar free agent is coming here.

Because I don't think the way that DAL won their lone championship is a model for success. I think more than any other championship in recent history they got hot at the right time. If you could somehow go back and re-play that season 99 more times I doubt that DAL would win the championship again. I just think it was a fluke championship.
If we could somehow win a fluke championship I'd take it and love it. But I don't want to rely on a fluke.
This doesn't have anything to do with a superstar free agent - I've never thought we could go that route.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Yeah, I suppose I should be specific that my concern is playoffs, not regular season. I think this team can win a lot of regular season games, and maybe even get to the second round, but I don't think it's built to contend. We've seen teams deploy better versions of what we're trying to do, and only DAL got lucky on a blue moon. I would never model a team after the Mavs.

Be honest, given our recent history, would you not be happy with making the playoffs and advancing to the second round? I know I would. We haven't been to the second round since 2000. Would this not exceed your preseason expectations? Winning a lot of regular season games, making the playoffs and advancing to the second round are all steps in the right direction. Once you start winning, it becomes easier to convince talent to come here. Olshey has done a great job of building a roster to fit Stotts' system, while still retaining flexibility. Should a disgruntled star start demanding a trade at the deadline or after the season, it may be just the piece we need to make that final push from playoff team to contender.

I like seeing this team win. That's why I'm a fan. They are winning now and I'm enjoying it. I am optimistic about the future, both short term and with the improvement and roster flexibility, I am also optimistic about the longer term future.

BNM

 

[blue9]

Be honest, given our recent history, would you not be happy with making the playoffs and advancing to the second round? I know I would.

Of course I'd be happy! Getting to the second round would be awesome this year! But I wouldn't be happy if that's where our team tops out over the long haul. And unfortunately, that's where I think this team tops out.
But all of this is beside the point - I'm not talking about my level of happiness, I'm discussing defense. That is, after all, the elephant in the room. People have suggested that our defense is greatly improved over last season and that just isn't true (yet). Simply defending the 3-point line (which, so far, we aren't doing much better than last year) will not launch us into the company of BOS/CHI/LAL/IND of years past.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Because I don't think the way that DAL won their lone championship is a model for success. I think more than any other championship in recent history they got hot at the right time. If you could somehow go back and re-play that season 99 more times I doubt that DAL would win the championship again. I just think it was a fluke championship.
If we could somehow win a fluke championship I'd take it and love it. But I don't want to rely on a fluke.
This doesn't have anything to do with a superstar free agent - I've never thought we could go that route.

But they did win it the one and only time it mattered. And Stotts was Carlisle's lead assistant. Let's face it, short of LeBron James falling in your lap, there is no sure fire recipe for winning an NBA championship. And as a small market team (hello Cleveland), even if you get lucky and win the lottery at the exact time the next LeBron is available, he'll just leave for green pastures (a bigger market) and you'll be right back in the lottery. No top 3 draft pick has won an NBA championship with the team that drafted them since Tim Duncan 17 years ago, but in that time, teams like Detroit and Dallas, who were built slowly, piece-by-piece have.

BNM

 

[Nikolokolus]

Because I don't think the way that DAL won their lone championship is a model for success. I think more than any other championship in recent history they got hot at the right time. If you could somehow go back and re-play that season 99 more times I doubt that DAL would win the championship again. I just think it was a fluke championship.
If we could somehow win a fluke championship I'd take it and love it. But I don't want to rely on a fluke.
This doesn't have anything to do with a superstar free agent - I've never thought we could go that route.

Hey if the Blazers get hot at the right time and "luck" their way into a championship using the Mavs model, you'll never hear one goddamned peep out of me about "this isn't the right model" or "this isn't sustainable."

 

[blue9]

Hey if the Blazers get hot at the right time and "luck" their way into a championship using the Mavs model, you'll never hear one goddamned peep out of me about "this isn't the right model" or "this isn't sustainable."

I said as much myself! I'll take a championship any way we can get it.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Simply defending the 3-point line (which, so far, we aren't doing much better than last year) will not launch us into the company of BOS/CHI/LAL/IND of years past.

But we are doing it MUCH better than last year. 29% is the best Opp 3FG% in the database at nba.com and 5% better than last season and that is a significant improvement. Think about it, the difference between 29% and 34% is the same as the difference between 34% and 39%. At 29% Opp 3FG%, we are best in the league (best in the last 6+ seasons) at defending the 3. At 39%, we'd be 3rd worst. We are doing MUCH better (so far) at defending the 3.

That, combined with our vastly improved team rebounding are the keys to our 8-2 start.

BNM

 

[The_Lillard_King]

Maybe the elephant in the room is that Lopez isn't as good on defense as we expected (rim protector).

I mean we all seem to like Lopez (what's there not to like), he plays with heart, he gets along with his teammates and he is an upgrade at the center position. so hard not to like Lopez and his game at this point. But there is more scoring in the paint than many anticipated with the addition of Lopez. Maybe his value lies in boxing out on defense (he is slow footed), and he is a nice surprise on the offensive side.

So I'm not saying I'm disappointed with Lopez (he is turning into a fav for me), but maybe that is the reason for the easy baskets in the paint.

 

[Sedatedfork]

It may not be a formula that can win in the Playoffs, but since we haven't been in the Playoffs for a few seasons (I think it was in 2011 as I recall where I was in that miraculous comeback against the Rockets), it's a start.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

This might have been said earlier, but in case not:

Portland (8-2)
Pace: 96.3 (17), OffRtg: 107.2 (3), DefRtg: 102.8 (17), NetRtg: +4.4 (7)

Near the beginning of the season we were dead last in DRtg and there was a panic thread, now we're up to 17 and.... there's another panic thread?

 

[Boob-No-More]

3pt shots tend to create long rebounds, too.

I actually thought of this when I was authoring my original post, but that post was already quite long and it was quite late, so I left it out. Thanks for reminding me.

Yes, this is a very important factor for two reasons. First, missing a lot of 3-pointers can lead to long defensive rebounds, which can lead to fast break opportunities for the other team. The good news, is the Blazers are hitting their 3s at a high percentage and doing a good job getting back on defense. Second, on defense, long rebounds can result in giving up a lot of offensive rebounds to the opposition. This can be very demoralizing, to play great defense, get the stop, only to have the other team grab a long offensive rebound and get a fresh 24 seconds. Thankfully, the Blazers are excelling in this area - and I think this is by design. Batum, Matthews and Lillard are all averaging career highs in rebounds. Matthews and Lillard by very significant amounts. I already discussed this in the Rebounding Concern and Asik trade rumor threads, but here are the updated rebounding numbers, current and career best for our perimeter defenders.

Batum:
Current = 6.4 rpg
Previous Best = 5.6 rpg
Delta = +0.8 rpg

Matthews:
Current = 5.1 rpg
Previous Best = 3.4 rpg
Delta = +1.7 rpg

Lillard:
Current = 4.8 rpg
Previous Best = 2.9 rpg
Delta = +1.9 rpg

And, if you look specifically at defensive rebounding, our 3 perimeter players are all averaging over 4 Drpg. That's incredible.

Batum:
Current = 4.7 Drpg
Previous Best = 4.3 Drpg
Delta = +0.4 rpg

Matthews:
Current = 4.2 Drpg
Previous Best = 2.6 Drpg
Delta = +1.8 Drpg

Lillard:
Current = 4.3 Drpg
Previous Best = 2.6 Drpg
Delta = +1.7 Drpg

That's a huge improvement and I don't think it is a coincidence. I think it's something Stotts has stressed and has the players focused on. Giving up long offensive rebounds negates playing great 3-point defense. So, if you want to be successful, you need to deny the 3 and then make sure you gather in the miss. The Blazers are doing both, and that's why they are winning.

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

Maybe the elephant in the room is that Lopez isn't as good on defense as we expected (rim protector).

I mean we all seem to like Lopez (what's there not to like), he plays with heart, he gets along with his teammates and he is an upgrade at the center position. so hard not to like Lopez and his game at this point. But there is more scoring in the paint than many anticipated with the addition of Lopez. Maybe his value lies in boxing out on defense (he is slow footed), and he is a nice surprise on the offensive side.

So I'm not saying I'm disappointed with Lopez (he is turning into a fav for me), but maybe that is the reason for the easy baskets in the paint.

He's not elite, but he's better than average. And, that's a huge improvement over what we had previously.

BNM

 

[HailBlazers]

Portland (8-2)
Pace: 96.3 (17), OffRtg: 107.2 (3), DefRtg: 102.8 (17), NetRtg: +4.4 (7)

Near the beginning of the season we were dead last in DRtg and there was a panic thread, now we're up to 17 and.... there's another panic thread?

And people are trying to say we haven't gotten better on defense... smh

 

[Boob-No-More]

This might have been said earlier, but in case not:

Portland (8-2)
Pace: 96.3 (17), OffRtg: 107.2 (3), DefRtg: 102.8 (17), NetRtg: +4.4 (7)

Near the beginning of the season we were dead last in DRtg and there was a panic thread, now we're up to 17 and.... there's another panic thread?

Repped! Excellent point. Sure, we still have a ways to go, but we are improving. Honestly, even if we were number 1 in both ORtg and DRtg and undefeated, some people would still find something to complain about (no room for improvement, we can only get worse, the sky is falling, oh the humanity, I'm so scared, please save me, please pay attention to me, did you hear me, hey, I'm over here, mommy, why don't you love me mommy?!?!?!?!?!).

BNM

 

[Pinwheel1]

With who we have on the team now I think we can all agree that this style is our best option to take the next step. I mean since we do not have a high lottery pick and we do not have cap space, it all comes down to making progressive steps forward until we can add the needed pieces.

I think we can get lucky and find an inexpensive rim protector to go along with Robin at center. I also think we can
add another guard to play with Lillard. (if needed)

Steps can be added to offset the deficiencies we have now. But it may take two years. Right now just win as many as we can. And even if it is not sustainable in the playoffs, it is our best chance to get there, while entertaining the fans. Our D can get better, but if not we will just need to out score everyone until it can

 

[Nikolokolus]

Maybe the elephant in the room is that Lopez isn't as good on defense as we expected (rim protector).

I mean we all seem to like Lopez (what's there not to like), he plays with heart, he gets along with his teammates and he is an upgrade at the center position. so hard not to like Lopez and his game at this point. But there is more scoring in the paint than many anticipated with the addition of Lopez. Maybe his value lies in boxing out on defense (he is slow footed), and he is a nice surprise on the offensive side.

So I'm not saying I'm disappointed with Lopez (he is turning into a fav for me), but maybe that is the reason for the easy baskets in the paint.

Lopez is pretty "heavy-legged," which means he has trouble hedging on pick and rolls and getting back under the basket at times. His length helps him as a shot-blocker and I think he's a better defensive player then Hickson, but I would tend to see him as short term fix as our starting pivot and not necessarily the guy want roving the paint for the next 5-8 years.

 

[Nikolokolus]

And people are trying to say we haven't gotten better on defense... smh

Repped! Excellent point. Sure, we still have a ways to go, but we are improving. Honestly, even if we were number 1 in both ORtg and DRtg and undefeated, some people would still find something to complain about (no room for improvement, we can only get worse, the sky is falling, oh the humanity, I'm so scared, please save me, please pay attention to me, did you hear me, hey, I'm over here, mommy, why don't you love me mommy?!?!?!?!?!).

BNM

Not to diminish winning on the road and winning in general, but the quality of opponent during our six game winning jag might be a factor no? Sacaramento X2, Phoenix, Boston, Toronto, Detroit. I'll take it, but it's a little early to say things have been "fixed."

 

[Boob-No-More]

Not to diminish winning on the road and winning in general, but the quality of opponent during our six game winning jag might be a factor no? Sacaramento X2, Phoenix, Boston, Toronto, Detroit. I'll take it, but it's a little early to say things have been "fixed."

I never said it was fixed. I said it was improving, but still has a ways to go.

BNM

 

[blue9]

But we are doing it MUCH better than last year. 29% is the best Opp 3FG% in the database at nba.com and 5% better than last season and that is a significant improvement.

Well fuck me! I just noticed that the nba.com stats page I was looking at had another data set that you have to side-scroll to see, otherwise it's hidden! So while I thought I was looking at 3pt data, I wasn't. I hate side-scrolling web pages...
I also just found that their perimeter categories suck - 3-pointers aren't clearly delineated (20-24' includes both 2-point AND 3-point shots)! Initially I liked nba.com's distance data because the interior broke out in more interesting ranges, but now that I notice what's going on with their perimeter ranges I think it blows.

 

[Sinobas]

A lot of teams play better defense without a great shot blocking center. So it's not just Lopez.

Here is an interesting stat for Lopez, it measures opponent FG% at the rim. I filtered it for players who average at least 1 block per game. Lopez is at 46.5% per game....the really elite defenders like Hibbert and Davis are at 34-35%. Lipez is 22 on that list, but higher than players like Drummond, Dalembert, Ibaka, Gortat, McGee, Jordan.... McGee and Jordan's % is particularly bad.

http://stats.nba.com/playerTracking...=FGP_DEFEND_RIM&sortOrder=ASC&filters=BLK*G*1