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Like I said, the packaging adds to the experience. But I wouldn't want a slick package to go along with a piece of shit OS and flaky hardware.

There was a point where apple innovated so fast and so well that people would dump a year old laptop to replace it with the new model for the better CPU, screen, battery life, etc.
 
Denny Crane said:
There was a point where apple innovated so fast and so well that people would dump a year old laptop to replace it with the new model for the better CPU, screen, battery life, etc.
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When Apple debuts a new product line, this'll happen a lot. The first entry into the market is usually pretty but underpowered (the first iPad and MacBook Air come to mind). Then, once the supply chain is humming, they drop the price a bit (or keep it the same), and crank the hell out of the stats. Twice as powerful. Major battery life improvements. But because the product has huge fit and finish, people don't think of that first entry device as a prototype or half-baked, like they do with a lot of other hardware out there.

Apple seems to do best in green field/blue ocean (can't remember which one is the correct term) areas where consumers have no context and the product is seen as being out there on its own completely. Then an underpowered entry model doesn't look wimpy. The Air's first model is a great example of a borderline case here: it's a laptop, but it weights 2.5lbs, and is still more powerful than those shitty Eee netbooks, so you can't totally compare on specs alone (the weight argument counteracts it). After an iteration, you get an even lighter 11" model, and insane battery life on the 13", making it the road warrior device of choice for C-Level execs and sales guys (again, the sharp design makes it attractive to those guys aver their old Lenovos).

So, getting into the On-demand TV, wearable computing, and other nascent markets is where they need to go to be seen as an innovator, but we're starting to run out of those in the direct halo of computing devices.
 
Don't look now but they are up 2% at close. Probably gonna bounce back after the earnings report.
 
magnifier661 said:
Don't look now but they are up 2% at close. Probably gonna bounce back after the earnings report.
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No way; this is a short term play, and the stock will crash after the report. It almost always takes a dive after the earnings report.
 
BlazerCaravan said:
And when is the conference call?
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I know it hasn't been on yet, but you don't see this type of bullish trend right before the call on the same day. I suspect it's better than people forecast; nothing amazing, but not the huge drop that many suspected.
 
magnifier661 said:
I know it hasn't been on yet, but you don't see this type of bullish trend right before the call on the same day. I suspect it's better than people forecast; nothing amazing, but not the huge drop that many suspected.
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Just looked it up: the conference call is at 2pm PST; we'll see after hours movement tonight then movement tomorrow obviously.
 
Free cash flow yield (free cash flow ÷ price).



[video=youtube;rfkM_a4PatE]

He seems to think this is a great time to buy since the spike will normalize.
 
magnifier661 said:
It was just a feeling. Nothing too substantial that gave me some edge. What I seen so many years is they usually undersell their stock on the last quarter; so they exceed expectations on the next quarter
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One thing they did differently this time is offer increased value with stock buybacks and increased dividend, per public recommendations by Warren Buffett.
 
BlazerCaravan said:
One thing they did differently this time is offer increased value with stock buybacks and increased dividend, per public recommendations by Warren Buffett.
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Yeah I noticed that too. Buffett really likes apple long. Maybe he just wants them to really do it the right way.
 
magnifier661 said:
I showed you my reasoning why I think it's worth more on the link provided. What are you trying to prove?

You could do a simple 5x net and the company is $600 per share. Obviously there are other factors.

I don't know what agenda you have on this company? Do you want it to fail? Are you a Microsoft guy? What companies you invested in and how did you evaluate those companies?

http://m.seekingalpha.com/article/1159731

Here is one model that has the value of the company being $485. This same site said they come out with an Apple TV; then it's over $500.
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I have no agenda against the stock. But I do have a point. And that point is that you have no actual valuation model, just a set of opinions that you think value the stock at $500 per share. Any or all of your assumptions could easily be off by 10%. So you're final "valuation" estimate could be 20-40% off. At that point, it is completely useless as it could be worth $200/share or $700/share.

As for what companies I buy... I don't. I trade ETFs, futures and options.
 
blazerboy30 said:
I have no agenda against the stock. But I do have a point. And that point is that you have no actual valuation model, just a set of opinions that you think value the stock at $500 per share. Any or all of your assumptions could easily be off by 10%. So you're final "valuation" estimate could be 20-40% off. At that point, it is completely useless as it could be worth $200/share or $700/share.

As for what companies I buy... I don't. I trade ETFs, futures and options.
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They are trading 6x earnings. The norm is 14x earnings. They have zero debt. At 14x earnings; it's 790 stock

And they just announced they will give our 100 billion to its shareholders!
 
magnifier661 said:
Okay so now that I am on a computer, let me give you the best summary of how I value Apple being a $500 stock.

1.) Apple's P/E is 8.96

2.) Apple's EPS is $44.11

3.) I multiply the EPS by the P/E for a total of $395.22 per share. That is the poor man's evaluation of the actual value of the stock.

4.) Now I take into consideration that the company has an access of 187 billion in cash and like Denny pointed out, a book value of $135.00; which I suspect will give an increased value of $135.64 per share. The reason why I incorporate the "book value" is, if apple actually liquidated all their expenses; they would be at zero liability and their cash alone can compensate all their debt, giving them an additional $135 per share.

So adding the $135 + 395.22 = 530.22 per share price.
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Oh my. Sorry Mags, but this is pretty far off man.
 
BlazerCaravan said:
I do have a legit question: why is Amazon rewarded in the stock market for running essentially a utility with tons of revenues but no profits? Their P/E ratio is nuts (3,000+%).

EDIT: as i wrote this, I chuckled at how P/E is the PER of the stock market, probably misued by just about everyone who also misuses advanced stats on Basketball Reference.
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One "theory" I read was that investors are willing to put up with the incredibly low margins from Amazon thinking that they will eventually push everybody else out of business. Then, after that is done, they can start increasing margins and get their P/E back in line.

I don't personally agree with this theory at all, which is why I'd be hesitant to touch amzn.
 
magnifier661 said:
They are trading 6x earnings. The norm is 14x earnings. They have zero debt. At 14x earnings; it's 790 stock

And they just announced they will give our 100 billion to its shareholders!
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Sorry, but using a "norm" P/E and backward looking earnings to evaluate a company's value is likely to get you into a LOT of trouble.
 
blazerboy30 said:
Sorry, but using a "norm" P/E and backward looking earnings to evaluate a company's value is likely to get you into a LOT of trouble.
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Well fine.... But after tonight's call we will see. I have a wager to Denny. Would you like to take me up on it? It will make you $1,000 richer if they don't reach $500 before next quarter
 
BlazerCaravan said:
Sorry. I assume you both have made lots of money in the stock market?
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Well I've made a lot of money; but it's mainly through my investment broker managing my money.

I think people trading have to do it full time. Usually my investment broker will give me three or four stocks and I decide which ones I want to jump on.

As for apple; my broker wanted me to sell when it was $700. I said no for personal reasons. I own 100 shares of it. Apple is 20% of the actual money I have in various mutual funds, etf's, stocks and bonds. Most my money are in mutual funds.
 
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