It seems obvious in retrospect but that first iPhone was... not even 33% of what even the 3G was, let alone the 4 or 4S where things really picked up, and it was *fucking expensive*. It's easy to say "oh yeah the iPhone was always going to be huge" but like, it was underpowered and expensive, and didn't seem that useful yet. But, it was designed for rich people, and once the lower-cost, better version came out later, it was something.
I am absolutely not saying this will fail; I'm saying they're using the same playbook, that's all.