Are The Blazers Going Stale?

[dviss1]

Are we Blazer fans really worried?

Limited Upside NBA podcast: Are the Blazers growing stale?

Last year was a bit of a letdown for the Blazers, though Jusuf Nurkic’s arrival perked things up a bit. But with a bloated payroll, is this as good as it gets?
by Mike Prada and Ben Epstein Sep 12, 2017, 4:05pm EDT TWEET
Listen to Limited Upside’s Portland Trail Blazers preview here.

This is the 17th of Limited Upside's 30 team previews leading up to next season. We're bringing together representatives from all 30 SB Nation team sites and other team-specific experts from the SB Nation/Limited Upside community to gauge the temperature of the fanbase heading into the season. Check ’em all out here.

Blazers fans didn't have a ton to do this summer, giving them more time to think about the overall state of their franchise. Last year was mostly rough, but a great finish salvaged some hope. What now?

Brian Freeman and Peter Sampson from Blazers Edge join us to discuss the following:

• Why fans are apprehensive about this year and the future despite having two core guards and plenty of stability.
• What happened last year before Jusuf Nurkic came aboard? Why was the same mix of players so much less effective?
• Lillard and McCollum. Dame and C.J. They're the stars of the team and they like each other, and they're great people. They also have similar games and may not be fully maximized next to each other. Is this a pairing that's built for the long haul? Is there a ceiling for the duo? How do fans feel about having them as the two best players?
• Lillard is the leader, but where does C.J. rank in that pecking order?
• Why was Nurkic so effective last year? Can it last?
• What's the level of trust in Terry Stotts and Neil Olshey right now? How badly did the franchise botch the summer of 2016?
• You've been gifted the magical powers to give one of Al-Farouq Aminu, Maurice Harkless, and Evan Turner a consistent, proficient three-point shot on high volume. Who are you bestowing the gift on and why?
• We spend some time reminiscing about Brandon Roy because he deserves it.
• Some tough choices were made for the all-time banana boat -- but there was one easy one.
• Why did the Blazers pick Zach Collins and Caleb Swanigan when they already were overloaded with bigs?
• Predictions, best/worst case scenarios, and much more.

 

[BigGameDamian]

 

[Sweetriverphil]

I recently purchased some Blazers at a farmer's market. Very fresh.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

• You've been gifted the magical powers to give one of Al-Farouq Aminu, Maurice Harkless, and Evan Turner a consistent, proficient three-point shot on high volume. Who are you bestowing the gift on and why?

This is an interesting question. Moe seems to be approaching this without supernatural intervention, but would need to shoot about 3x as often as he did last year. Of the three listed, I'd pick Turner, because he has so many other offensive skills, and a consistent outside shot would make them so much more dangerous.

 

[e_blazer]

My takes for what little they may be worth:

• Why fans are apprehensive about this year and the future despite having two core guards and plenty of stability.

Easy answer: Because we're fans and worry is what we do. Real answer: Because the franchise spent big and is capped out. If Nurkic pans out the way we hope, the team will be solid, but probably not a contender. How do the Blazers move from solid to contender?

• What happened last year before Jusuf Nurkic came aboard? Why was the same mix of players so much less effective?

I'd say it was a combination of injuries (Davis and Leonard [recovering from surgery] and later Turner) plus some bad breaks in some close games. The previous year the team was pretty healthy and they won some games that they probably shouldn't have.

• Lillard and McCollum. Dame and C.J. They're the stars of the team and they like each other, and they're great people. They also have similar games and may not be fully maximized next to each other. Is this a pairing that's built for the long haul? Is there a ceiling for the duo? How do fans feel about having them as the two best players?

This is the season that we find out the answer to that question. I'm content with waiting to see if they work now that CJ is an established starter. To me, it largely depends on whether CJ and Dame can find a way to be at least decent on the defensive end.

• Lillard is the leader, but where does C.J. rank in that pecking order?

Duh: Lillard #1, CJ #1A.

• Why was Nurkic so effective last year? Can it last?

Uhm, maybe because he's really good? This was the first time that he has played with guards as effective as Dame and CJ and not had to look over his shoulder at a guy like Jokic. As long as Nurk stays healthy, I see nothing but improvement from him this season as he's going to be in shape and he's going to know the system and his teammates better.

• What's the level of trust in Terry Stotts and Neil Olshey right now? How badly did the franchise botch the summer of 2016?

My trust level is good for both of them. In retrospect, they should have passed on re-signing Crabbe. That said, if they had let him go and he played really well for the Nets, there would have been a shit storm of complaining about that too. Olshey got out from under the contract about as well as was possible this summer. Was Turner the best guy they could have spent their money on? I don't know what other choices were out there that were realistic. It really was a case of use it or lose it with the cap space. I think they should have passed on Leonard, but if he can show anything at all this year, his contract isn't bad for a big guy.

• You've been gifted the magical powers to give one of Al-Farouq Aminu, Maurice Harkless, and Evan Turner a consistent, proficient three-point shot on high volume. Who are you bestowing the gift on and why?

I'll go with Turner, too. He's got some really nice facets of his game. If he could shoot from distance, he'd be awesome.

• We spend some time reminiscing about Brandon Roy because he deserves it.

Roy was great. Wish he could still play, but that's history.

• Some tough choices were made for the all-time banana boat -- but there was one easy one.

I'm not into banana boats. Banana floats? That's another story.

• Why did the Blazers pick Zach Collins and Caleb Swanigan when they already were overloaded with bigs?

Probably because Olshey doesn't plan on keeping all of them? Davis will be gone after this year. Leonard likely will too. Having young quality bigs on cheap rookie salaries is critical for cap management.

• Predictions, best/worst case scenarios, and much more.

I'm going with 46 wins and 6th in the West. It's as good a guess as any.

 

[Natebishop3]

I think that our core has stagnated a bit... and Neil didn't do jack shit this summer.

 

[dviss1]

I think that our core has stagnated a bit... and Neil didn't do jack shit this summer.

Neil traded Crabbe and got a TPE. We still have yet to see what's going to happen with that.

 

[dviss1]

Neil also offered 3 picks and any player for Paul George. And if K-PISS was in his right mind, he would've done that deal. Imagine our roster with PG on it. So, I don't classify that as doing jack shit.

You have to have 2 to tango.

 

[PDXFonz]

Seems like this subject has been covered 100 times by 100 hacks.

Payroll blah blah blah

First round of playoffs blah blah

Dame and CJ blah blah blah blah

 

[SlyPokerDog]

The only thing that has grown stale is the off season.

 

[e_blazer]

Seems like this subject has been covered 100 times by 100 hacks.

Payroll blah blah blah

First round of playoffs blah blah

Dame and CJ blah blah blah blah

Sounds like the Fonz has grown a bit stale. Hang in there. It's only three weeks until the first pre-season game and a month until the start of the season.

 

[SIeepwalker]

Apprehensive about this year and the future ? I'm hyped as fuck !!

The Aminu-Harkless-Turner question is dumb as fuck. Moe is way ahead of the others two 3pt shooting wise

The Dame and CJ can't work together stories are getting old. Fuck that shit

Why did the Blazers pick Zach Collins and Caleb Swanigan when they already were overloaded with bigs?

We were overloaded with bigs ? What ? Who are those clowns

 

[Natebishop3]

Neil also offered 3 picks and any player for Paul George. And if K-PISS was in his right mind, he would've done that deal. Imagine our roster with PG on it. So, I don't classify that as doing jack shit.

You have to have 2 to tango.

Trying to do something, and actually doing something, are two different things.

 

[PDXFonz]

Sounds like the Fonz has grown a bit stale. Hang in there. It's only three weeks until the first pre-season game and a month until the start of the season.

And 24 hours until somebody else I've never heard of writes about how high the blazers payroll is.

 

[GriLtCheeZ]

I go back and forth between being happy to make the playoffs most years, and tear it down and play the lottery to win big. Well we played the lottery and won, but still lost in the end.

 

[dviss1]

Trying to do something, and actually doing something, are two different things.

 

[BonesJones]

• Why fans are apprehensive about this year and the future despite having two core guards and plenty of stability.

- Simple, because last year was a major let down and we didn't add anyone in the off-season. Nurkic could be a huge addition but he's not a sure thing yet.

• What happened last year before Jusuf Nurkic came aboard? Why was the same mix of players so much less effective?

- This response might be surprising, but Nurkic became the heart and soul of the team. The defense he brought was also a major upgrade and teams have to give him respect inside which compliments the stretching that Lillard and McCollum do.

• Lillard and McCollum. Dame and C.J. They're the stars of the team and they like each other, and they're great people. They also have similar games and may not be fully maximized next to each other. Is this a pairing that's built for the long haul? Is there a ceiling for the duo? How do fans feel about having them as the two best players?

- Their games compliment each other offensively. The only reason to question a ceiling for the duo and question why they're a good fit is defensively. However, with marginal improvement from both of them defensively, a good defensive frontcourt, and an optimized defensive scheme, they're deficiencies defensively won't limit the upside of the team as a whole.

• Lillard is the leader, but where does C.J. rank in that pecking order?

- Weird question. 1B?

• Why was Nurkic so effective last year? Can it last?

- He was effective because of his talent. Plain and simple. His passing skill fit in Stotts' offense. His defense is top notch and reminds me of Marc Gasol. And the biggest improvement was that he was more bought in than any other point in his career because he finally had a team allowing him to flourish. "Can it last?" is a dumb question. He just turned 23, is now in the best shape of his life and will only get better the more he gets used to our plays and the system. "How much can he improve off of last year?" is the proper question.

• What's the level of trust in Terry Stotts and Neil Olshey right now? How badly did the franchise botch the summer of 2016?

- Their was no way for the franchise to not botch the 2016 off-season, therefore they didn't botch it, because you can't blame them. Leonard was a bad signing and Turner was overpaid, but without those guys you're not in a better spot in terms of getting better now and for the future. Letting Crabbe go and not signing Turner would've left us with Napier, Connaughton, and Layman as our backup perimeter players, which would've been extremely disappointing after a breakout season and would result in the same question.

• You've been gifted the magical powers to give one of Al-Farouq Aminu, Maurice Harkless, and Evan Turner a consistent, proficient three-point shot on high volume. Who are you bestowing the gift on and why?

- Turner. Aminu will probably be gone in a year or two, and he's a defender first. Harkless already has an average shot, and has other areas of his game where he provides value. He's also with his contract. With Turner, he could be a 3rd ball handler by being able to play with Dame AND CJ because he could also space for him. He'd have more room to slice due to harder closeouts which he could attack. He has the most room for improvement on his outside shot and if he could shoot the 3 he would be worth his contract. It would also allow Portland to bring in any type of backup SG to replace Crabbe, since they need one shooting wing off the bench and Turner would be just that.

• We spend some time reminiscing about Brandon Roy because he deserves it.

Retire his number already.

• Why did the Blazers pick Zach Collins and Caleb Swanigan when they already were overloaded with bigs?

Top-level talent matters, and in terms of that, the Blazers only have one big man who has the potential to be a top level talent (Nurkic, if he's not there already). They already have two top-level guards, so drafting a guard wouldn't have resulted in adding top level talent in a few years, because top level talent needs a starting role to grow into. The SFs available didn't have top-level potential either. That's why Portland went with Collins and Swanigan.

• Predictions, best/worst case scenarios, and much more.

- Prediction: 47-35, 4th in the West.
- Best Case Scenario: Nurkic turns into an all-star averaging 20ppg, 12rpg, and 4apg with great defense, wins most improved and is an All-NBA center. Dame still averages 27ppg, but does so on improved efficiency (46 FG%, 40 3pt%), and it's in part because of Nurk's impact. McCollum keeps up his efficiency while providing 25ppg, and analysts start debating whether Dame/CJ/Nurk is the best big 3 in the NBA behind GSWs. Portland starts with a 30-10 record due to an easy start of the season and an improved Harkless, Vonleh, and rookie contributors in Collins and Swanigan. Turner shoots 35% from 3pt which makes him a very good NBA player. Nurkic, McCollum, and Lillard all make the all-star team due to the Blazers being 2nd in the West. McCollum and Lillard are 2 of 6 guards which also includes Curry, Thompson, Harden, and Westbrook. (CP3 and Butler miss). Portland finishes with a 56-26 record, good for 2nd in the West. They sweep the Nuggets in the 1st round, and beat Aldridge and the Spurs in 6 games in the 2nd round. One of Durant/Curry comes down with a minor injury that causes them to miss the WCF, and Portland shocks the Warriors in 6, where Draymond Green gets ejected in games 3 and 4 to the delight of the Portland crowd. Portland receives home court advantage over the 2nd seeded Boston Celtics in the Finals, who shocked the Cavs. Lillard shows why he's the best PG in the league after he averages 35ppg in the finals, dropping an outstanding 55 points in game 7 of the Finals to lead Portland to a 115-107 win, in the greatest game 7 finals performance in NBA history.
Worst Case Scenario: Injuries lead to barely missing the playoffs and the 14th pick.

 

[e_blazer]

I go back and forth between being happy to make the playoffs most years, and tear it down and play the lottery to win big. Well we played the lottery and won, but still lost in the end.

Not again. Please no lottery talk this year?

 

[Natebishop3]

Sure, but we have assets. We could make trades. Neil just doesn't do it. I suspect he's waiting to see what happens with Melo, but we lost a major part of our bench, didn't replace them, and our two major additions are rookies.

 

[e_blazer]

Sure, but we have assets. We could make trades. Neil just doesn't do it. I suspect he's waiting to see what happens with Melo, but we lost a major part of our bench, didn't replace them, and our two major additions are rookies.

Are you including Quarterman in the "major part of our bench"? Other than him and Crabbe, everyone's back, right?

 

[PtldPlatypus]

• We spend some time reminiscing about Brandon Roy because he deserves it.

Retire his number already.

No. Five years, three all-star selections, and zero playoff series victories is not enough to warrant retiring his number, Houston 30 foot game winner and Dallas game 4 moments notwithstanding.

 

[dviss1]

Sure, but we have assets. We could make trades. Neil just doesn't do it. I suspect he's waiting to see what happens with Melo, but we lost a major part of our bench, didn't replace them, and our two major additions are rookies.

So Neil "just doesn't do it" or:

KPee is a dick?

 

[Chris Craig]

Limited Upside NBA podcast: Are the Blazers growing stale?

Last year was a bit of a letdown for the Blazers, though Jusuf Nurkic’s arrival perked things up a bit. But with a bloated payroll, is this as good as it gets?
by Mike Prada and Ben Epstein Sep 12, 2017, 4:05pm EDT TWEET
Listen to Limited Upside’s Portland Trail Blazers preview here.

This is the 17th of Limited Upside's 30 team previews leading up to next season. We're bringing together representatives from all 30 SB Nation team sites and other team-specific experts from the SB Nation/Limited Upside community to gauge the temperature of the fanbase heading into the season. Check ’em all out here.

Blazers fans didn't have a ton to do this summer, giving them more time to think about the overall state of their franchise. Last year was mostly rough, but a great finish salvaged some hope. What now?

Brian Freeman and Peter Sampson from Blazers Edge join us to discuss the following:

• Why fans are apprehensive about this year and the future despite having two core guards and plenty of stability.
• What happened last year before Jusuf Nurkic came aboard? Why was the same mix of players so much less effective?
• Lillard and McCollum. Dame and C.J. They're the stars of the team and they like each other, and they're great people. They also have similar games and may not be fully maximized next to each other. Is this a pairing that's built for the long haul? Is there a ceiling for the duo? How do fans feel about having them as the two best players?
• Lillard is the leader, but where does C.J. rank in that pecking order?
• Why was Nurkic so effective last year? Can it last?
• What's the level of trust in Terry Stotts and Neil Olshey right now? How badly did the franchise botch the summer of 2016?
• You've been gifted the magical powers to give one of Al-Farouq Aminu, Maurice Harkless, and Evan Turner a consistent, proficient three-point shot on high volume. Who are you bestowing the gift on and why?
• We spend some time reminiscing about Brandon Roy because he deserves it.
• Some tough choices were made for the all-time banana boat -- but there was one easy one.
• Why did the Blazers pick Zach Collins and Caleb Swanigan when they already were overloaded with bigs?
• Predictions, best/worst case scenarios, and much more.

[/QUOTE]

• Why fans are apprehensive about this year and the future despite having two core guards and plenty of stability?

Because the Blazers have continued to be unable to bring a big name free agent to Portland. Though Carmelo Anthony isn't exactly a free agent, he controls where he goes, and so far has not removed his no trade clause to be sent here. Too, fans are unsure of Evan Turner, and with the exodus of Allen Crabbe, there is a seemingly gaping hole at SG. Fans are unsure of Connaughton's ability to step up next season with more minutes and responsibility. Fans are unsure of Neil Olshey, whose sole summer transactions outside of the draft and the Crabbe trade, are signing CJ Wilcox and Archie Goodwin to a 2 way and a non guaranteed contract respectively. Fans are restless. They are waiting for Olshey to use the trade exception, pull off a Melo trade, the season to start....anything please.

• What happened last year before Jusuf Nurkic came aboard? Why was the same mix of players so much less effective?

The Blazers didn't have Nurkic. Players didn't understand or weren't able to function in their roles. Allen Crabbe was over estimated and a large contract was wasted on him, Evan Turner had a difficult transition to Portland, having come from Boston where he was the main initiator of the offense off the bench, he touch the ball too few times, and couldn't get quite comfortable. Mason Plumlee was really a power forward playing undersized at center, and while he was a good passer and offered a mild offense, he lacked the size to help defensively. The Blazers offense was stagnant without a third scorer to keep opponents honest on defense. Nurkic opened up the offense with his movement, his passing, and his ability to score and pull down offensive rebounds. He took off the pressure and was a Juggernaut defensively.

• Lillard and McCollum. Dame and C.J. They're the stars of the team and they like each other, and they're great people. They also have similar games and may not be fully maximized next to each other. Is this a pairing that's built for the long haul? Is there a ceiling for the duo? How do fans feel about having them as the two best players?

I think Lillard and CJ have different games, with some similar aspects. They are getting better and better, and with a healthy full year of Nurkic, look to see them to have their best year statistically. They re built for the long haul. Everyone has a ceiling, but Dame and CJ are still young and on the rise. Fans are ecstatic.

• Lillard is the leader, but where does C.J. rank in that pecking order?

Second duh! This is Dame's team, but CJ plays a very important role. He is the Blazers second go to scorer.

• Why was Nurkic so effective last year? Can it last?

Have you seen his dad? But, really Nurkic is a beast. He was horribly underutilized in Denver. The Nuggets were so stuck on Jokic they let Nurkic slip through their hands, and are sorry for it. Nurkic is the real deal, a big man who can do it all. Because of his size he is almost impossible to guard and will block the crap out of you on the other end if you look at him wrong. He draws players off of the perimeter opening the offense. I think not only will it last, he is going to better this year than last, if that is possible. He has slimmed down, gotten into great shape, and has been working on his game.

• What's the level of trust in Terry Stotts and Neil Olshey right now? How badly did the franchise botch the summer of 2016?

There is a pretty high level of trust in Terry. He is an above average offensive coach, though he relies on a three point heavy system a bit to much.The Players love him, and the fans for the most part approve of him. The concerns begin on the defensive end. Stotts is not a defensive coach by any means of the word. The Blazers need to add a top notch defensive specialist Assistant coach to put next to Stotts and balance him out. Olshey, is a crafty GM whose slyness makes a fox look meek. He has fallen into the same trap as every other GM in Portland's history and hasn't been able to bring in big names, and is taking some blame from fans. Blazers fans are among if not the most passionate in the NBA, and are hungry for a championship, for sucess. When that doesn't happen as quick as is hoped the GM and coach take a beating. I'm pretty sure Neil has a few more years to make something happen before he is in the hot-seat. Stotts is safe for now. But, expectations will continue to build among fans.
Where Neil probably messed up by matching Crabbe and panicking and offering Turner so much, he really messed up by resigning Meyers Leonoard. He spent a lot of money to keep guys, and get Turner. He did try to get Whiteside, among other big names. If could be worse, he got lucky that Parsons opted to sign with the Grizzlies.

• You've been gifted the magical powers to give one of Al-Farouq Aminu, Maurice Harkless, and Evan Turner a consistent, proficient three-point shot on high volume. Who are you bestowing the gift on and why?

Aminu, Harkless and Turner already have one, or close to one. Aminu is in horrible need to keep opponents defense honest

• We spend some time reminiscing about Brandon Roy because he deserves it.

Yes, Yes he does. He had a great career in Portland, and like Lillard is an Icon. Those Damned knees. But, regardless he made Portland proud and the fans will remember him.

• Some tough choices were made for the all-time banana boat -- but there was one easy one.

I'll just assume you are thinking about Damian Lillard

• Why did the Blazers pick Zach Collins and Caleb Swanigan when they already were overloaded with bigs?

Because as injury prone as big men are, you can never have to many. Too, the Blazers need a real backup for Nurkic and out looking for a possible future starting PF. Not to mention at first I was going to only answer this question with two words: Meyers Leonard.

• Predictions, best/worst case scenarios, and much more.

Best:

Blazers win 55+ games, make it to the western conference finals, further

Worst:

Blazers suffer massive injuries win 40 or less and miss the playoffs

Realistically:

Blazers win 45-50 wins, 5th in the west, make second round

Predictions:

• Vonleh is the starting PF to begin the season, but is replaced by Swanigan before Christmas
• Nurkic remains a force to be dealt with, and improves on last years stats.
• Dame and CJ have their best year
• Carmelo Anthony comes to Portland, as a Knick to play against the Blazers
• Evan Turner picks it up, and has a good year
• Connaughton gets Crabbes minutes and plays better than Crabbe did with those minutes
• Meyers has a better year, then gets traded at the deadline.
• Davis returns to old form

 

[Wizard Mentor]

Blazers make a lot of trades: "This instability is gonna crush us - we need to be more like the Spurs!"
Blazers don't make a lot of trades: "The Blazers are growing stale!"

Truth: It's a nonissue. You guys are just bored. The offseason needs to end, and soon.

 

[tester551]

Neil traded Crabbe and got a TPE. We still have yet to see what's going to happen with that.

I'll give you a hint....
Absolutely nothing. TPEs are not that valuable.

 

[dviss1]

Blazers make a lot of trades: "This instability is gonna crush us - we need to be more like the Spurs!"
Blazers don't make a lot of trades: "The Blazers are growing stale!"

Truth: It's a nonissue. You guys are just bored. The offseason needs to end, and soon.

I don't subscribe to the article. I posted it because it's blazer "news".

 

[dviss1]

I'll give you a hint....
Absolutely nothing. TPEs are not that valuable.

And the winning lottery numbers are?

 

[stampedehero]

Nurk actually plays a passing game and moves his ass to the basket. He reminds me of A. Sabonis. I still wonder why Meyers can't do it!

 

[Haakzilla]

...can a baking cake really go stale?!

 

[THE HCP]

I go back and forth between being happy to make the playoffs most years, and tear it down and play the lottery to win big. Well we played the lottery and won, but still lost in the end.

How exactly did we "win" the lottery homie?