AROUND THE 2024 NBA PLAYOFFS: 2nd ROUND, MIN vs DEN, OKC vs DAL, BOS vs CLE, IND vs NY

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beast crnjo said:
I think the data is almost purely an artifact of the better teams getting more home court games and the fact that the regular season does pre-sort the quality of teams to some degree. But when you have two teams who are close in terms of talent, you seem them win on each others courts all the time. Travel and motivation isn't a factor in the playoffs.
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I'm not sure what you're saying. Yes, teams win on the road, we agree there.

Disagree that homecourt advantage makes little to no difference. Again, there is data to show that teams are more likely to win on their home court than on the road.
 
Tince said:
I'm not sure what you're saying. Yes, teams win on the road, we agree there.

Disagree that homecourt advantage makes little to no difference. Again, there is data to show that teams are more likely to win on their home court than on the road.
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The home team wins 60% of the games in the playoffs. But the question, is what is the true causation. Example: if you had a 1st seed team and a 8th seed team square off in a 7 game series, and they play at a neutral location, but they call games 1-2 "home" for the 1st seed team, games 3-4" home for the 8th seed etc, you'd get a home court advantage correlation just because of the fact that the better team is playing more games at home.

More home games are likely to have been played by the better team.
 
beast crnjo said:
The home team wins 60% of the games in the playoffs. But the question, is what is the true causation. Example: if you had a 1st seed team and a 8th seed team square off in a 7 game series, and they play at a neutral location, but they call games 1-2 "home" for the 1st seed team, games 3-4" home for the 8th seed etc, you'd get a home court advantage correlation just because of the fact that the better team is playing more games at home.

More home games are likely to have been played by the better team.
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Where did you get this data? How long was the sample size?

I heard yesterday that 75% of Game 7 winners are the home team. That doesn't really go in line with your argument that the superior team is just naturally going to win more because the series got to a game 7, therefore they were someowhat evenly matched, though the home team wins 3 out of ever 4 times.

Vegas certainly thinks home court is a real advantage in the playoff games given how much the spread changes when the venue moves.
 
Tince said:
Disagree that homecourt advantage makes little to no difference. Again, there is data to show that teams are more likely to win on their home court than on the road.
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Except Boston the past two years.
 
Tince said:
Where did you get this data? How long was the sample size?

I heard yesterday that 75% of Game 7 winners are the home team. That doesn't really go in line with your argument that the superior team is just naturally going to win more because the series got to a game 7, therefore they were someowhat evenly matched, though the home team wins 3 out of ever 4 times.

Vegas certainly thinks home court is a real advantage in the playoff games given how much the spread changes when the venue moves.
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Home winning percentage is not hard to find or calculate. All time it's about 62%, but has been falling. Someone did a study of the nba playoffs since 2013 in particular, and it was 60% for the home team.
https://www.nba.com/news/nba-home-court-win-percentage-this-season-will-be-worst-ever

And in the playoffs, a portion of this is going to be due to the fact that more home games are played by higher ranked teams.

The idea that at least some portion of that percentage is due to that affect is a statistical certainty. Playing 82 games in order to have 1 game were you have such a slight advantage is silly. The better team is going to win anyway. If it were a 1 in done series it would seem more substantial.
 
NCAA Tournament. If you called the higher seeded teams "home", and the lower seeded teams "visitors", you'd get a really strong home court winning percentage, even though the games are played in neutral territory. The same affect holds true, to a lesser degree in the playoffs of professional sports.
 
Ex-Blazers left in the playoffs:
MAVS:
Derrick Jones Jr. (How the fuck has he become a genuinely useful player? I guess playing with point guards who can throw lobs helps)
Greg Brown III (How the fuck is he on their playoff roster?)
Brandon Williams (are they signing ALL our scrubs? It's not going to make me root for them)

MINNY:
Luka Garza (Blazers' SL legend!)

CELTICS:
Jrue Holiday (YOU'RE WELCOME, BOSTON)

PACERS:
Not even a scrub - boo! BUT they have former GM Kevin Pritchard, and former assistant coach Rick Carlisle...
 
kjironman1 said:
Disagree with Marang. That was a stupid question.
I also think the answer was pretty foolish as well.
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Often reporters are trying to push people to give the quote that they want.

This reporter clearly wanted a quote from Malone about giving up a 20 point lead. It's a legit topic from the game. It's something he should address.

At the end of the day, most reporters are just doing their job.
 
beast crnjo said:
NCAA Tournament. If you called the higher seeded teams "home", and the lower seeded teams "visitors", you'd get a really strong home court winning percentage, even though the games are played in neutral territory. The same affect holds true, to a lesser degree in the playoffs of professional sports.
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Then how do you explain why the lower seed wins a higher percentage of home games than road ones?
 
Natebishop3 said:
Often reporters are trying to push people to give the quote that they want.

This reporter clearly wanted a quote from Malone about giving up a 20 point lead. It's a legit topic from the game. It's something he should address.

At the end of the day, most reporters are just doing their job.
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No shit.
It was a stupid question and the answer was worse.
 
beast crnjo said:
Home winning percentage is not hard to find or calculate. All time it's about 62%, but has been falling. Someone did a study of the nba playoffs since 2013 in particular, and it was 60% for the home team.
https://www.nba.com/news/nba-home-court-win-percentage-this-season-will-be-worst-ever

And in the playoffs, a portion of this is going to be due to the fact that more home games are played by higher ranked teams.

The idea that at least some portion of that percentage is due to that affect is a statistical certainty. Playing 82 games in order to have 1 game were you have such a slight advantage is silly. The better team is going to win anyway. If it were a 1 in done series it would seem more substantial.
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Thanks for the link. Since it didn't have a flat data set for me to pull all the NBA playoff outcomes, I took a minute to pull the Blazers playoff data since 2000 to see if there was a noticable difference for how they performed at home vs on the road. I wanted to separate if they were the higher seed or not to see if them having a better home record was simply because of the fact they were the better team. Here were the winning percentages:

Better Seed At Home - 62.5%
Better Seed On Road - 14.3%
Worse Seed At Home - 48.3%
Worst Seed On Road - 26.5%

At least in Portland's sample, it appears they were over 4 times as likely to win as the better seed at home than they were on the road. As the lower seed, they were just shy of twice as likely to win at home vs on the road.
 
beast crnjo said:
NCAA Tournament. If you called the higher seeded teams "home", and the lower seeded teams "visitors", you'd get a really strong home court winning percentage, even though the games are played in neutral territory. The same affect holds true, to a lesser degree in the playoffs of professional sports.
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Overall this post-season, home teams are 43-31, 58.1%.
Overall this post-season, higher seeded teams are 44-30, 59.5%.
Overall this post-season, higher seeded teams at home are 28-15, 65.1%.

So yes, the seeding impacts winning percentage, but the location also impacts it. Home-court advantage absolutely is still a thing.

To be fair, in the second round, home teams went 5-8, including two game-7 losses, so I can see how someone might think home-court doesn't matter anymore. But that's an anomaly, not a trend.
 
Tince said:
Thanks for the link. Since it didn't have a flat data set for me to pull all the NBA playoff outcomes, I took a minute to pull the Blazers playoff data since 2000 to see if there was a noticable difference for how they performed at home vs on the road. I wanted to separate if they were the higher seed or not to see if them having a better home record was simply because of the fact they were the better team. Here were the winning percentages:

Better Seed At Home - 62.5%
Better Seed On Road - 14.3%
Worse Seed At Home - 48.3%
Worst Seed On Road - 26.5%

At least in Portland's sample, it appears they were over 4 times as likely to win as the better seed at home than they were on the road. As the lower seed, they were just shy of twice as likely to win at home vs on the road.
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That's rather close to the aggregate data. They won about 55% of their playoff games at home if you average those. I don't think home court is nothing. But it's some combination of travel, and psychological advantage. I think those two advantages are lessened in the playoffs. And it's diluted by the "more games at home for better teams" aspect comes into play in the playoffs.

Whatever advantage remains: you play 82 games to get that for "maybe" 1 game. Because there are 2 ways a series can end with both teams getting equal number of games at home and 2 ways in which the top seed can.
 
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beast crnjo said:
That's rather close to the aggregate data. They won about 55% of their playoff games at home if you average those. I don't think home court is nothing. But it's some combination of travel, and psychological advantage. I think those two advantages are lessened in the playoffs. And it's diluted by the "more games at home for better teams" aspect comes into play in the playoffs.

Whatever advantage remains: you play 82 games to get that for "maybe" 1 game. Because there are 2 ways a series can end with both teams getting equal number of games at home and 2 ways in which the top seed can.
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The Blazers won about 51% of their home games and 24% of their road games in the playoffs since 2000. Since the 1999-2000 season, they won 60% of their home games and 42% of their road games in the regular season.
 
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