All signs point to the road through the West once again going through Oracle Arena. After opening the season with an 81 percent chance of claiming the No. 1 seed, those chances have since ballooned to 97 percent as the Warriors have a four-game lead over Houston as we enter the second half of the season. This is the unprecedented fourth straight season the Warriors own the NBA's best record through 41 games, which according to Elias Sports Bureau research, is something no other team has done since the NBA went to an 82-game schedule in 1967-68. There's not much suspense here.
Golden State's projected first-round opponent is Portland, a team it has met each of the past two postseasons, including a sweep in last year's first round. The Blazers are actually a good test case for using BPI rather than current standings to project opponents.
Currently fifth in the West and 3.5 games up on the ninth-place Clippers, a quick look at the standings might reveal a likely first-round matchup with San Antonio. And while that certainly could still shake out, it ignores the fact that Portland plays the NBA's second-hardest schedule from this point forward, among other things. Though BPI likes the Blazers' chances of making it to the playoffs (82 percent), it also thinks they are more likely to finish as the No. 8 seed than the No. 6 seed.