Around the NBA - April 2018

[H.C.]

Got lucky with a Spurs loss.
Portland still needs to go into hostile territory against playoff teams and come away with a W.
Then they must defend home court.

 

[THE HCP]

Got lucky with a Spurs loss.
Portland still needs to go into hostile territory against playoff teams and come away with a W.
Then they must defend home court.

Man, these next three games are tough. Even with a healthy roster. I say hold out Dame til he's healthy. That sprain looked bad man.

 

[BonesJones]

Yep. Spurs 3 seed hopes are dead.

No they're not smh...

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Where it exited, I have no idea butt...

I'm a 12-year-old sometimes.

 

[Lukee]

 

[Sarni]

Hezonja has some potential. Depending on where he lands in the offseason, he could build on a decent 2017-18 and maybe become a solid rotation player somewhere.

 

[kjironman1]

I want to play the Spurs in the playoffs.

Yeah.I don't really fear the Spurs the way i have in the past. I know Aldridge and they just don't have that player that makes me wonder like they used to.

 

[kjironman1]

Right now they own a three game lead over both Utah and San Antonio with 4 games to play.
They play the Jazz at home for the last game of the season. I kind of think that game will not make a difference by the time it gets here.

 

[Sarni]

I kind of want Jazz to play Spurs. It'd basically be like the new Spurs versus the actual Spurs.

 

[H.C.]

Man, these next three games are tough. Even with a healthy roster. I say hold out Dame til he's healthy. That sprain looked bad man.

You only want to hold Lillard out because without him Portland has a higher chance of losing.
Therefore your prediction won't look as bad.

 

[DDolla]

Raptors fans all in panic mode and they know it’s the same Craptors all over again that they won’t beat the Cavs. They all know that Lowry is a fraud lol.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

https://nbamath.com/2017-18-nba-tpa/

 

[tester551]

https://nbamath.com/2017-18-nba-tpa/

This just underscores how atrocious ET has been.
Also, Nurk fills a great need in the lineup - but I'm uneasy committing to him for more than $15-18M per year.


Before everyone starts harping on how bad Pat has been (which he has), just look at what AC has done this year in Brooklyn.... Pat has been an upgrade in talent.

 

[tester551]

And this one is for any of those that were hoping Melo to Portland was a real thing... He's worst in the league, by a large margin. (note - this chart eliminated the rookies, so that ET would show up on the page).

 

[H.C.]

And TPA is supposed to calculate what?

 

[tester551]

And TPA is supposed to calculate what?

As such, the formula for TPA is rather simple. It’s broken down into two parts—offensive points added (OPA) and defensive points saved (DPS)—and each is calculated in the same vein.

OPA is derived by adjusting offensive box plus/minus (OBPM) to account for the number of possessions the player in question is present for. Similarly, DPS is derived from a similar adjustment of defensive box plus/minus (DBPM) with that same number of possessions. OBPM and DBPM, both calculated by Basketball-Reference.com, estimate the per-100-possessions value of a player on either end of the court.

https://nbamath.com/tpa-model/

When looking at the players that rank high on this list (and low on this list), it seems to match up really well with what the eye test shows. That at least give me a decent comfort level on using the data.

 

[DDolla]

Can I say this in this forum? Let’s Go Lakers!

 

[kjironman1]

Can I say this in this forum? Let’s Go Lakers!

Sure you can say it but you will never be able to wash it off.

 

[riverman]

Sure you can say it but you will never be able to wash it off.

HCP is living proof!

 

[hoopsjock]

This just underscores how atrocious ET has been.
Also, Nurk fills a great need in the lineup - but I'm uneasy committing to him for more than $15-18M per year.
View attachment 19880

Before everyone starts harping on how bad Pat has been (which he has), just look at what AC has done this year in Brooklyn.... Pat has been an upgrade in talent.
View attachment 19881

Correct me if I'm wrong but doesn't that show how freaking valuable Nurk is on defense? He crushes everyone else on the team in DPS.

 

[THE HCP]

 

[noknobs]

https://nbamath.com/tpa-model/

When looking at the players that rank high on this list (and low on this list), it seems to match up really well with what the eye test shows. That at least give me a decent comfort level on using the data.

So you think the eye test shows Layman has a much greater positive impact than Collins? And that Meyers has a greater positive impact than Nurk?

This looks like another worthless advanced statistic. I'll stick with reality.

 

[kjironman1]

Didn't really help them last night.

 

[kjironman1]

So you think the eye test shows Layman has a much greater positive impact than Collins? And that Meyers has a greater positive impact than Nurk?

This looks like another worthless advanced statistic. I'll stick with reality.

Not really at all. Though i understand your basic premise. The starters play against starting caliber players. So using common sense does have to come into play. I understand also that this is a fan forum and common sense kind of goes out the window.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Guy's having a career year at age 32!

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Didn't really help them last night.

I think we can pin this one on Patty and Manu:

 

[tester551]

So you think the eye test shows Layman has a much greater positive impact than Collins? And that Meyers has a greater positive impact than Nurk?

This looks like another worthless advanced statistic. I'll stick with reality.

In both cases, you're comparing a player with limited minutes played (Layman & Meyers) versus someone who has played significantly more (Collins & Nurk). You're not comparing similar situations.

I understand that not everyone gets math & statistics, but there is value here when you look at it in the correct light. There are limitations to any advanced stat & there are almost always outliers ("noise") in the data set.

I'm fully a Collins supporter. I think he's going to be a stud... however right now, it's obvious that he's struggling on the offensive side of the ball. There should be no argument with that - and this is exactly what the data shows.

For as good as Nurk has been on defense, he's also been fairly poor on offense (he's been much better over the last month or so). Low shooting percentage & turnovers will do that for someone.

Ultimately, the data shows that:

• Dame is our star (no surprise);
  
• Aminu, Hark, & CJ are playing very well;
  
• Napier, ED, Meyers, & Nurk have been average; and
  
• Pat, Zach, & ET have been poor

 

[noknobs]

You're not comparing similar situations.

No, the "stat" is not comparing similar situations.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

 

[THE HCP]

Didn't really help them last night.

Oh I see JinxSpeed has hacked your account and is replying for you now?