Around the NBA - March 2018

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Sarni said:
Pelicans have basically secure playoffs for them. 43-30, they are not dropping out of top 8 for sure from here. If they had Cousins I wouldn't even be sure about Rockets or Warriors beating them, they are good. Davis alone is hard to handle, having second great big in a beast mode would be overwhelming for any team that plays them.

Considering the schedule they have I feel the same about Utah. Also they have been in pretty great form over the last weeks.

The only team that might get replaced on top 8 are IMO Spurs who have difficult games coming up but it would take a great run from Clippers or Nuggets to make it happen.
Click to expand...

They've been a surprise this year, especially after Cousins went down. They are 1 of 7 teams with an above .500 record on the road.

They're the sleeper upset team in the playoffs, imho.
 
julius said:
They've been a surprise this year, especially after Cousins went down. They are 1 of 7 teams with an above .500 record on the road.

They're the sleeper upset team in the playoffs, imho.
Click to expand...
Which is why I want them and the Jazz to get the 4-5 seeds. Let them battle it out in the first round and the Rockets see the winner in the 2nd.
 
I would still much rather play the Pelicans than the Jazz in the playoffs (if it falls that way) but I agree that they are dangerous.
 
Should be any interesting weekend. FiveThirtyEight predictions (below) have the Jazz as serious underdogs in both of their games (@SAS and @GSW). Given the way UTA has been playing, and all the injuries to GSW, I find that a little surprising. Curry is supposed to be back tonight, but Durant and Klay will be out until sometime in April. Not sure when Draymond and Caspi are due back. It would be nice if GSW would do us a solid and beat UTA on Sunday.

The UTA @SAS game should be interesting. The only listed injury for SAS is Kawhi, and they are used to playing without him. Plus, the game is in San Antonio, and the Spurs are MUCH better at home (28-8) than on the road (14-22). The good news is this will be a guaranteed loss for one of the teams chasing us.

We need to take care of business against a depleted BOS team before heading out on the road. I REALLY want a win over OKC on Sunday. I'd love to get the season sweep over those fuckers.

I've been watching the FiveThirtyEight predictions over the last couple of weeks. Their model seems to be accurate about 85% of the time (in terms of wins and losses, I haven't been following their point spreads as they don't matter in the standings). They are currently predicting the Blazers will go 7-4 over their last 11 games. Using the +/- 15% variance, that means the team should win between 6 and 8 of their final 11 games. Even just going 6-5 gets the team to a final record of 50-32 and would make it difficult for any of the teams chasing us to catch us (given that all already have 30 or 31 losses and there are several head-to-head match ups where both teams can't win).

But, they play the games for a reason. The Blazers control their own fate. It's up to them to do what they need to do to hold onto the third seed.

BNM

Friday, March 23

i
Timberwolves -4 65%
i
Knicks 35%


i
Heat 24%
i
Thunder -7 76%


i
Jazz 35%
i
Spurs -3.5 65%


i
Celtics 27%
i
Trail Blazers -6 73%


Saturday, March 24

i
Timberwolves 28%
i
76ers -6 72%



i
Pelicans 13%
i
Rockets -11.5 87%

Sunday, March 25

i
Spurs 49%
i
Bucks -0.5 51%




7 p.m.
i
Trail Blazers 38%
i
Thunder -3 62%


i
Jazz 31%
i
Warriors -5 69%
 
yuyuza1 said:
Just doesn't seem like they're all on the same page.



Click to expand...

Damn you--beat me by seconds.

I wouldn't be surprised if Kawhi gives management a "him or me" ultimatum regarding Parker this summer.
 
Two biggest conspiracies this season are juicy. What’s up with kawhi? What’s up with fultz?
 
Boob-No-More said:
Should be any interesting weekend. FiveThirtyEight predictions (below) have the Jazz as serious underdogs in both of their games (@SAS and @GSW). Given the way UTA has been playing, and all the injuries to GSW, I find that a little surprising. Curry is supposed to be back tonight, but Durant and Klay will be out until sometime in April. Not sure when Draymond and Caspi are due back. It would be nice if GSW would do us a solid and beat UTA on Sunday.

The UTA @SAS game should be interesting. The only listed injury for SAS is Kawhi, and they are used to playing without him. Plus, the game is in San Antonio, and the Spurs are MUCH better at home (28-8) than on the road (14-22). The good news is this will be a guaranteed loss for one of the teams chasing us.

We need to take care of business against a depleted BOS team before heading out on the road. I REALLY want a win over OKC on Sunday. I'd love to get the season sweep over those fuckers.

I've been watching the FiveThirtyEight predictions over the last couple of weeks. Their model seems to be accurate about 85% of the time (in terms of wins and losses, I haven't been following their point spreads as they don't matter in the standings). They are currently predicting the Blazers will go 7-4 over their last 11 games. Using the +/- 15% variance, that means the team should win between 6 and 8 of their final 11 games. Even just going 6-5 gets the team to a final record of 50-32 and would make it difficult for any of the teams chasing us to catch us (given that all already have 30 or 31 losses and there are several head-to-head match ups where both teams can't win).

But, they play the games for a reason. The Blazers control their own fate. It's up to them to do what they need to do to hold onto the third seed.

BNM

Friday, March 23

i
Timberwolves -4 65%
i
Knicks 35%


i
Heat 24%
i
Thunder -7 76%


i
Jazz 35%
i
Spurs -3.5 65%


i
Celtics 27%
i
Trail Blazers -6 73%


Saturday, March 24

i
Timberwolves 28%
i
76ers -6 72%



i
Pelicans 13%
i
Rockets -11.5 87%

Sunday, March 25

i
Spurs 49%
i
Bucks -0.5 51%




7 p.m.
i
Trail Blazers 38%
i
Thunder -3 62%


i
Jazz 31%
i
Warriors -5 69%
Click to expand...

Basketball-Reference odds for key Western Conference games this weekend:

Today's Games
Minnesota (61%) @ New York (39%)
Miami (31%) @ Oklahoma City (69%)
Utah (40%) @ San Antonio (60%)
Boston (43%) @ Portland (57%)

Mar 24, 2018 Games
Minnesota (39%) @ Philadelphia (61%)
New Orleans (19%) @ Houston (81%)

Mar 25, 2018 Games
San Antonio (53%) @ Milwaukee (47%)
Portland (39%) @ Oklahoma City (61%)
Utah (28%) @ Golden State (72%)

I still think they have UTA's chances against GSW WAY to low based on the Warriors injury situation (Durant and Klay definitely out, Draymond day-to-day).

BNM
 
Boob-No-More said:
Should be any interesting weekend. FiveThirtyEight predictions (below) have the Jazz as serious underdogs in both of their games (@SAS and @GSW). Given the way UTA has been playing, and all the injuries to GSW, I find that a little surprising. Curry is supposed to be back tonight, but Durant and Klay will be out until sometime in April. Not sure when Draymond and Caspi are due back. It would be nice if GSW would do us a solid and beat UTA on Sunday.

The UTA @SAS game should be interesting. The only listed injury for SAS is Kawhi, and they are used to playing without him. Plus, the game is in San Antonio, and the Spurs are MUCH better at home (28-8) than on the road (14-22). The good news is this will be a guaranteed loss for one of the teams chasing us.

We need to take care of business against a depleted BOS team before heading out on the road. I REALLY want a win over OKC on Sunday. I'd love to get the season sweep over those fuckers.

I've been watching the FiveThirtyEight predictions over the last couple of weeks. Their model seems to be accurate about 85% of the time (in terms of wins and losses, I haven't been following their point spreads as they don't matter in the standings). They are currently predicting the Blazers will go 7-4 over their last 11 games. Using the +/- 15% variance, that means the team should win between 6 and 8 of their final 11 games. Even just going 6-5 gets the team to a final record of 50-32 and would make it difficult for any of the teams chasing us to catch us (given that all already have 30 or 31 losses and there are several head-to-head match ups where both teams can't win).

But, they play the games for a reason. The Blazers control their own fate. It's up to them to do what they need to do to hold onto the third seed.

BNM

Friday, March 23

i
Timberwolves -4 65%
i
Knicks 35%


i
Heat 24%
i
Thunder -7 76%


i
Jazz 35%
i
Spurs -3.5 65%


i
Celtics 27%
i
Trail Blazers -6 73%


Saturday, March 24

i
Timberwolves 28%
i
76ers -6 72%



i
Pelicans 13%
i
Rockets -11.5 87%

Sunday, March 25

i
Spurs 49%
i
Bucks -0.5 51%




7 p.m.
i
Trail Blazers 38%
i
Thunder -3 62%


i
Jazz 31%
i
Warriors -5 69%
Click to expand...

Boob-No-More said:
Basketball-Reference odds for key Western Conference games this weekend:

Today's Games
Minnesota (61%) @ New York (39%)
Miami (31%) @ Oklahoma City (69%)
Utah (40%) @ San Antonio (60%)
Boston (43%) @ Portland (57%)

Mar 24, 2018 Games
Minnesota (39%) @ Philadelphia (61%)
New Orleans (19%) @ Houston (81%)

Mar 25, 2018 Games
San Antonio (53%) @ Milwaukee (47%)
Portland (39%) @ Oklahoma City (61%)
Utah (28%) @ Golden State (72%)

I still think they have UTA's chances against GSW WAY to low based on the Warriors injury situation (Durant and Klay definitely out, Draymond day-to-day).

BNM
Click to expand...

They both have us getting our asses kick by OKC on Sunday? Whaaaaat!?!
 
PtldPlatypus said:
Damn you--beat me by seconds.

I wouldn't be surprised if Kawhi gives management a "him or me" ultimatum regarding Parker this summer.
Click to expand...

Tony is on the way out anyway
 
Chris Craig said:
They both have us getting our asses kick by OKC on Sunday? Whaaaaat!?!
Click to expand...

Yeah, well FiveThirtyEight gave us the EXACT same chances against the Clipers as they do against OKC (home team 68/32 favorites with a 3 point margin). So, I wouldn't read too much into these projections. They are far from perfect. They typically get the outcome wrong about 15 - 20% of the time, and I haven't even bothered to check how close they come on the point spreads.

These computer models need further refinement, especially when comprehending injuries, momentum, etc. I think a reasonably knowledgeable person could look at how both teams have been playing lately, look at the injury reports for both teams and come up with more accurate predictions.

BNM
 
Boob-No-More said:
Yeah, well FiveThirtyEight gave us the EXACT same chances against the Clipers as they do against OKC (home team 68/32 favorites with a 3 point margin). So, I wouldn't read too much into these projections. They are far from perfect. They typically get the outcome wrong about 15 - 20% of the time, and I haven't even bothered to check how close they come on the point spreads.

These computer models need further refinement, especially when comprehending injuries, momentum, etc. I think a reasonably knowledgeable person could look at how both teams have been playing lately, look at the injury reports for both teams and come up with more accurate predictions.

BNM
Click to expand...
Looks like Vegas has us at a 6.5 to 7 point favorite tonight & 84% of the money is being placed on Portland to cover.
The website I'm looking at doesn't have the line set for Sunday's game yet.
 
Wiz coming back now against the Nugs.

I want Plums to play well but the Nugs to lose.
 
Lotta big games going on tonight.
I'll prolly end up disappointing with the outcome of many.
 
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