At #43, Blazers select Rayan Rupert

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Sheldon Shape said:
But he literally just improved his 3 ball? He's always been productive. Great rebounder. If he can shoot that 3 at a 37% clip, he's a keeper if it's cheap.
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that 39% number is misleading

for the first 5 months of the season, over 43 games, Walker shot 12-45 on three's. That's 26.7% conversion rate which was in line with his 28.6% as a rookie and 29.5% in his 2nd season.

then, in 10 games in March, he shot 11-15 on three's. That moved his conversion rate from 26.7% to 38.3% for the season. When a single month of 10 games and 15 total shot attempts can move a rate from 26.7% to 38.3% that tells you nothing about his 3ptFG numbers is reliable

in fact, prior to March, in 171 total games over 3 seasons he had attempted 240 three's and made 28.8% of them. In March he made 73.3%. Again, there's nothing reliable about that massive of a differential
 
SlyPokerDog said:
I like Walker, but he has reached his full potential. I really hoped that he would be a Mark Bryant type of player for us. Just a steady role-player who knew his role. He's not. He has never been a 15-20 min a night player, and he never will be.

His time with the Blazers needs to be over.
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wizenheimer said:
that 39% number is misleading

for the first 5 months of the season, over 43 games, Walker shot 12-45 on three's. That's 26.7% conversion rate which was in line with his 28.6% as a rookie and 29.5% in his 2nd season.

then, in 10 games in March, he shot 11-15 on three's. That moved his conversion rate from 26.7% to 38.3% for the season. When a single month of 10 games and 15 total shot attempts can move a rate from 26.7% to 38.3% that tells you nothing about his 3ptFG numbers is reliable

in fact, prior to March, in 171 total games over 3 seasons he had attempted 240 three's and made 28.8% of them. In March he made 73.3%. Again, there's nothing reliable about that massive of a differential
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It's still part of the equation. What season is this for him? It's totally in line with when you start to see improvement in shooting.
 
Sheldon Shape said:
It's still part of the equation. What season is this for him? It's totally in line with when you start to see improvement in shooting.
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yeah, it's part of the equation but the equation is flawed

I'm saying you saw basically the same shooter for 171 games over 3 seasons. And after 43 games this season, when going 11-15 for one month jumps the percentage from 27% to 38%. It's probably unwise to discount it as a hot streak and instead believe he's become a better shooter than Dame

lots of players do improve their conversion rates, usually over the course of 2 or 3 seasons. Sometimes a little quicker. But Walker's was a 3-month/29-game game trajectory of 27%-->41%-->73%. That's not usual. He only attempted 72 three's the entire season; and 267 over 3 seasons/188 games. Camara attempted 360, this year alone; Simons 593

again, over his first 240 attempts he shot 28.8%. Over his last 39 attempts he shot 56.4%. It would be risky to believe those 39 shots were more predictive than his first 240.
 
wizenheimer said:
yeah, it's part of the equation but the equation is flawed

I'm saying you saw basically the same shooter for 171 games over 3 seasons. And after 43 games this season, when going 11-15 for one month jumps the percentage from 27% to 38%. It's probably unwise to discount it as a hot streak and instead believe he's become a better shooter than Dame

lots of players do improve their conversion rates, usually over the course of 2 or 3 seasons. Sometimes a little quicker. But Walker's was a 3-month/29-game game trajectory of 27%-->41%-->73%. That's not usual. He only attempted 72 three's the entire season; and 267 over 3 seasons/188 games. Camara attempted 360, this year alone; Simons 593

again, over his first 240 attempts he shot 28.8%. Over his last 39 attempts he shot 56.4%. It would be risky to believe those 39 shots were more predictive than his first 240.
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Young players improve. Especially at shooting. Nobody said he's going to shoot like he did for that month but it signals improvement. And why would it be risky? Nobody is suggesting you give him a fat deal. If you can retain him on the cheap then it's not much of a risk at all.
 
Sheldon Shape said:
Young players improve. Especially at shooting. Nobody said he's going to shoot like he did for that month but it signals improvement. And why would it be risky? Nobody is suggesting you give him a fat deal. If you can retain him on the cheap then it's not much of a risk at all.
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I've been one of Jabari biggest critics and other years suggested cutting him.

But I'd resign him if the cost isn't to high. He is a good 3rd string option. Ideally we have someone better in the rotation but if not he's serviceable. The 3pt shooting might be a fluke but it might not, its encouraging at the least. He provides a small ball 5 option we don't have. Duop Murray Rupert Ayton all have been much worse on the court so he deserves a roster spot over all of them.
 
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wizenheimer said:
again, over his first 240 attempts he shot 28.8%. Over his last 39 attempts he shot 56.4%. It would be risky to believe those 39 shots were more predictive than his first 240.
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Agree that it's much more likely that it's a hot streak, HOWEVER, just to be devil's advocate, if this was the first time he'd got consistent minutes for a while, maybe we should discount the earlier shooting because he was playing 1 minute here, 1 minute there and never had a chance to warm up?

It's not unheard of for a big suddenly to get a three point shot - see Frye, Channing.
 
Interesting fact about Jabari: he and his dad both averaged 8.9 points and 7.something rebounds during their second seasons.

I’m guessing he’ll have a similar career to his dad. He’ll be around for a while as a journeyman. I was also hoping he’d be our Mark Bryant.
 
The guy hustles his ass off, is a good rebounder, a great teammate, and has "very possibly" improved his 3 pt shot.
I think they will try to keep him unless someone outbids them.
 
Sheldon Shape said:
Young players improve. Especially at shooting. Nobody said he's going to shoot like he did for that month but it signals improvement. And why would it be risky? Nobody is suggesting you give him a fat deal. If you can retain him on the cheap then it's not much of a risk at all.
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that's all fair. It's entirely possible something clicked and he'll end up being better than a 29% three point shooter. I just thought your projection as him being a possible 37% shooter was pretty high given the circumstances

I actually like Walker for his hustle, rebounding, and general low usage efficiency. He'd probably be worth re-signing at 3M/year or so. He's better than Murray, IMO. He and Banton are the only two players without a contract next season. If it was a choice between the two, not sure who I'd choose. Banton can be kind of irritating at times
 
I hope they make him a primary option in LVSL. He has skills, but lacks confidence and defers to older teammates when he is in a game. When he plays for the Remix, he is 'the man' and is much more agressive.
 
TBpup said:
I hope they make him a primary option in LVSL. He has skills, but lacks confidence and defers to older teammates when he is in a game. When he plays for the Remix, he is 'the man' and is much more agressive.
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reminds me a lot of Batum, I think potential is there to be a good player
 
Rastapopoulos said:
I would really like to know Blazers' FO's views on Rupert (and to a lesser extent, Jabari and Kris). Seems like if they take Essengue or Bryant that they're tacitly giving up on one or all of them.
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If I could keep only one of those three, I'd keep Rupert.
 
Rastapopoulos said:
Jabari for me. I fell hard that one SL. I mean, I like all three of them, but Jabari fills more of a need. Plus he showcased a really improved three point shot last season.
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Walker has the largest positive impact of the 3.

Walker > Kris > Rupert
 
I don't understand any hand wringing at all on this. He makes 2.2 a year. Barely a touch over the minimum for a 3 year player. As a 13th, 14th man on a minimum it's a great flyer to take.
 
RR7 said:
I don't understand any hand wringing at all on this. He makes 2.2 a year. Barely a touch over the minimum for a 3 year player. As a 13th, 14th man on a minimum it's a great flyer to take.
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No hand wringing at all. Hes fine for a flier as a 14 /15 man. Hes a good kid & I hope he succeeds.

I just think there are better prospects to bet on in that role.
 
He has the physical tools of a elite wing prospect…

6’7” with Tayshaun Prince length

But is he NBA caliber?

He’s young but I’m not seeing it. He could very well
blossom out of nowhere like Batum. As of right now I'm getting strong Nasir Little vibes.

Keep or dump?
 
Natebishop3 said:
I feel like this is a silly question.
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He's basically being paid the minimum, and is 21. To say you want to dump him for some other 19 year old you "scouted" with a few YT videos that every GM has somehow missed on, I agree, makes it a very silly question. Do we need to cut him so that we can sign a bought out Lebron and Giannis? Sure. Bye. But his rookie deal is so cheap it'd be stupid to give up on anyone like that unless they looked like Blevins out there.
 
Fez Hammersticks said:
He has the physical tools of a elite wing prospect…

6’7” with Tayshaun Prince length

But is he NBA caliber?

He’s young but I’m not seeing it. He could very well
blossom out of nowhere like Batum. As of right now I'm getting strong Nasir Little vibes.

Keep or dump?
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Keep
 
PCmor7 said:
Keep the post you quoted or keep Rupert?
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