Bad starts (not our imagination)

[TBpup]

On the latest Blazersedge podcast, Dave Deckard (with Dan Marang) drops the fun Nugget that the Blazers are dead last in the league in terms of points given up in the 1st quarter for the season.

The 12-1, 18-1, 30-10 starts don't exist in isolation and means the Blazers are starting behind in so many games that it is an uphill fight night after night just to catch up. That takes a lot of energy and we've seen them catch up but not have the ability to finish and pull out the win.

So what is the culprit? The team seems unprepared to play in many instances regardless of what the starting line-up has been. The energy isn't there, the game plan seems suspect, and the defense gives @BonesJones hope that he could make it in the NBA if he could just play against Portland every night.

It is no coincidence the Blazer record is what it is when the start of the game is so poor and for home games, it takes the crowd out of it almost before the game is started.

 

[Chris Craig]

Stotts waits till we are down 15 or 20 to call a timeout

 

[e_blazer]

I think part of it up to this point this season has been Lillard choosing to be a distributor rather than looking to score in the first quarter. He's been trying to get his teammates started, which would normally be a good thing for a PG to do, but not so much when only one of your teammates can shoot with any consistency.

 

[BBert]

Other teams seem to routinely come out in the first quarter and make 8-10 shots in a row against us before a time out. Our defense may be inherently bad, but it's made worse by a lack of focus and energy to start games. Maybe we need a bad ass Maori on our bench to lead the team in a haka dance before the game.

Come to think of it, didn't Ezeli try that? CJ might just tell him to shut up, LOL.

 

[blue9]

Tater Totts hasn't modified his offense to fit his personnel. We have bad shooters shooting long jumpers. When you come out of the tip-off and miss 4 or 5 long jumpers that lead to easy transition baskets for the other team you're gonna find yourself in a double-digit deficit real quick.

 

[BBert]

I have to say, it is frustrating when shitty shooters cost you possessions because they insist on jacking up shots they aren't likely to make. Or in the Blazers case, because their coach insists they jack up shots they aren't likely to make. Ai-yi-yi.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

Serious Answer: because we're missing a starting PF.... and no, I don't mean Aminu, I mean someone who's not on our roster yet.

 

[Chris Craig]

I think it would do us better to start games attacking the paint for layups instead of hoisting 3 after 3

 

[TBpup]

Serious Answer: because we're missing a starting PF.... and no, I don't mean Aminu, I mean someone who's not on our roster yet.

I would agree but in Stotts' offense, the PF just sets screens and plays on the perimeter so a 'true PF' would probably be wasted in his offensive scheme.

 

[Nikolokolus]

This team's defense is shit and that rests on Olshey because he put this team together.

Is Stotts part of the problem? Maybe, maybe not; he's an average NBA coach and probably 90% of other coaches would achieve similar results with this group.

Blaming player focus feels like a cop out.

Lastly, losing free-throw guy is worth the losses.

 

[Chris Craig]

I would agree but in Stott's offense, the PF just sets screens and plays on the perimeter so a 'true PF' would probably be wasted in his offensive scheme.

His offense is set around small ball, with small forwards at the four. Though Vonleh is the truest PF we have, he runs the floor within the small ball scheme. He hasn't been able get his natural sets, the ball in the paint, backing guys down. He has been ignored and any potential he has is going to waste because he cant develop in Stott's system. There is a similar situation with Meyers. He won't really play Meyers or Davis at the four next to Plumlee often, it's a small ball schematic...Hell Plumlee is really a PF playing at the center position.

 

[B-Roy]

I would agree but in Stotts' offense, the PF just sets screens and plays on the perimeter so a 'true PF' would probably be wasted in his offensive scheme.

LaMarcus Aldridge...

 

[illmatic99]

I think part of it up to this point this season has been Lillard choosing to be a distributor rather than looking to score in the first quarter. He's been trying to get his teammates started, which would normally be a good thing for a PG to do, but not so much when only one of your teammates can shoot with any consistency.

The offense is not the issue.

 

[Nikolokolus]

I would agree but in Stotts' offense, the PF just sets screens and plays on the perimeter so a 'true PF' would probably be wasted in his offensive scheme.

Depends on the power forward I guess. LMA was pretty productive in his system (although I tend to hate watching bigs do nothing but hoist long twos, so there's that.)

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

The offense is not the issue.

It would be helpful if we also had the stats on where they rank on points scored in the first quarter.

 

[oldfisherman]

I'm not backing this statement up with any researched facts, so if my memory is off, please correct.

BRoy/LMA started many games slow, and fought from behind. They took the punches their opponent dished out, saving their energy for the last round and a knock out punch.

Not sure if that is what Dame is doing? He appears to be out of gas at the end of many games. A slow start and pacing yourself only works if you finish strong.


And LMA played decent D near the paint. His D is probably underrated, and something we miss.

 

[Minstrel]

Bad roster.

The fact that the Blazers defend better as the game goes on actually speaks positively about the coaching staff: they make effective adjustments. But prior to those adjustments, the Blazers are just losing on talent.

 

[handiman]

Serious Answer: because we're missing a starting PF.... and no, I don't mean Aminu, I mean someone who's not on our roster yet.

"DNP - Not on Roster"

 

[riverman]

I think settling for jumpers early is a problem..we don't get their bigs in foul trouble early by taking it to them....couple early fouls changes the way a Gasol can guard the paint...we just don't get to the line early in games and we give up a ton of offensive rebounds....second chance pts early in games

 

[Strenuus]

And people really want the 8th seed when this team is bad in the 1st quarter...

YES I want 4 games of being behind by 15 going into the 2nd.

 

[Chris Craig]

I think settling for jumpers early is a problem..we don't get their bigs in foul trouble early by taking it to them....couple early fouls changes the way a Gasol can guard the paint...we just don't get to the line early in games and we give up a ton of offensive rebounds....second chance pts early in games

Thing bout that is the refs don't blow their whistle for us, so we instead boost threes and long contested low percentage 2's. We get behind. We have to attack anyway regardless of the refs...if we keep attacking they have to blow the whistle eventually as not to make their disdain for us to extremely obvious. We have to keep attacking.

 

[e_blazer]

The offense is not the issue.

I didn't say it was THE issue. I said it is sometimes a PART of the issue when guys who are poor shooters take the shots early in games and miss. Obviously, defense is the major ugly issue, but that's pretty much consistent from game to game. My thought is that when it's combined with poor shooting early in the game, that's when we end up with those really ugly first quarters.

 

[TBpup]

So the Blazers finally get off to a great start against Boston....and then give up a 13-2 run to end the 2nd half and 43 points in the 4th quarter.

Where is the consistency?

 

[Minstrel]

Where is the consistency?

There's no mystery here: to be consistently good/great, you need a good/great roster.

A mediocre or sub-mediocre roster can look good for short periods and then falls back to their mean. It's not "lack of consistency," it's standard variance starting from a low baseline.

 

[handiman]

There's no mystery here: to be consistently good/great, you need a good/great roster.

A mediocre or sub-mediocre roster can look good for short periods and then falls back to their mean. It's not "lack of consistency," it's standard variance starting from a low baseline.

How does that theory explain the second half of last year with basically the same roster? That was a pretty long short period.

 

[Minstrel]

How does that theory explain the second half of last year with basically the same roster? That was a pretty long short period.

It is a pretty long short period, but teams having flukish half-seasons isn't at all unprecedented, across sports. It probably feels more meaningful when it's the second half, but often teams have extremely hot first halves and then regress to the mean in the second half and people ignore it because "a hot start fading" seems like a normal occurrence. But there's no particular reason that the fluke can't happen in the second half.

 

[tlongII]

The roster sucks. It's just garbage.

 

[Orion Bailey]

T you are on to something. Fucking Free Throw guy. Ruined it all........

 

[Cippy91]

We have undersized bigs, no legit big except Plumlee who should really be playing PF. Out rebounded and outworked every night. We have guys that shouldnt be shooting threes, shooting them like Harkless and Aminu. I don't care if Aminu shot good last night, he has gotten worse since last season. Stotts needs to stop trying to make non shooters be shooters. Dame and CJ every night, rest of this roster is just bad. Crabbe is inconsistent and not aggressive but I like when he is aggressive because he actually puts up good numbers when he is. I don't care for the 8th seed, don't care to get stomped by Golden state. Moves need to be made this summer. Get it done Olshey.

Funny we went from overachieving to underachieving in a year...

 

[handiman]

It is a pretty long short period, but teams having flukish half-seasons isn't at all unprecedented, across sports. It probably feels more meaningful when it's the second half, but often teams have extremely hot first halves and then regress to the mean in the second half and people ignore it because "a hot start fading" seems like a normal occurrence. But there's no particular reason that the fluke can't happen in the second half.

Admirable effort, but I think a better answer is that it can't be explained as such. I imagine if you look through the examples of hot starts / cold finishes, or vice versa, to full seasons, you'll find that most of them correspond to significant injuries, coaching changes, team discord, etc.

I feel the roster is only half the issue. The other half is background stuff that we're not privy to, such as what effect the "asset collection" summer has had on the psyche of the team, and how that relates to inconsistent effort on the court.