Barkley--"Only 5 teams could win the title this year"

[PtldPlatypus]

Sir Charles says that it's the Lakers, Spurs, Cavs, Celtics, Magic...and then everybody else. Also says that each team's chances essentially hinge on their key additions (Artest, Jefferson, Shaq, 'Sheed, and Carter/Bass).

So, what say you?

 

[Idog1976]

Blazers can win this year. Our team is at least as good as the Magic and on par with the C's and Spurs. Only Cavs and Lakers are truly a cut above.

 

[illmatic99]

Why is Boston on that list? Sheed will undoubtedly bolster their frontline, but KG is still a huge question mark. He's not even healthy yet, and without him, they're not a top 5 team.

After our shit performance in the playoffs, I don't expect mainstream media personnel to believe in the Blazers. I kinda like that.

 

[BTOWN_HUSTLA]

I pretty much say he's spot on. those are the contenders, the first tier. if anyone else wins, its going to be quite a surprise and they are in the second tier of contenders (i.e. darkhorses)

 

[Nikolokolus]

When this team shows it can get past the first round we'll talk ... Secondly, Oden needs to demonstrate substantial growth otherwise I think we're going to be perpetual also ran.

 

[THE HCP]

Sounds about right to me. Like I said before, 2011-12 is our year!

 

[hasoos]

You are never a contender until you step up and make yourself a contender. All of those teams listed, have contended over the last few years, and that in itself makes Barkely correct. For Portland to become a contender, they need to start beating some of these teams, not only during the regular season, but on the road, and then, in the playoffs. The one thing that was missing with Portland for most of the last several seasons, is the ability to beat good teams on the road. When they get over that hurdle, we will know they are ready for some playoff noise.

 

[Idog1976]

When this team shows it can get past the first round we'll talk ... Secondly, Oden needs to demonstrate substantial growth otherwise I think we're going to be perpetual also ran.

You know very well, or should, that the difference between a first round exit and a possible WCF date with LA was less then a second. That's all it took for Michael Finley's game winning POST BUZZER three pointer to radically reorder the standings. Without it we play NOH or SA in the first round and likely advance, Second round brings the Nuggets and a 50-50 shot at the WCF. If you watched this team last year you know we are on par with any team in the league other then LA and the Cavs. Houston was like rock when we were scissors with most of the league being paper. There was no chance we would beat Houston as they were a matchup nightmare for us. Hell they took LA to 7 missing Yao for 5 of the games.

It goes without saying that if Oden doesn't produce at a star level (not necessarily All-Star or Superstar but at least top 5 Center) we won't win a ring. Being contenders though? We already are. Also ran's are teams like NOH and Utah. We're at least Darkhorse picks if not elite tier (SA, ORL, BOS level) only LeBron and Kobe truly stand head and shoulders above Portland.

 

[MIXUM]

If teh Blazers get to western conference finals.... that would be a huge step. anyone who expects more is dreaming.

It seems the obvious goal here is to win a playoff series and try to get to the finals.

a first round exit or no playoffs screams failure

 

[Oden's Shrink]

I pretty much say he's spot on. those are the contenders, the first tier. if anyone else wins, its going to be quite a surprise and they are in the second tier of contenders (i.e. darkhorses)

Yea, the Blazers are in the grey, they are not favorites yet, but once a top contender goes down it very well could be the Blazers replacing them.

 

[BenDavis503]

If teh Blazers get to western conference finals.... that would be a huge step. anyone who expects more is dreaming.

It seems the obvious goal here is to win a playoff series and try to get to the finals.

a first round exit or no playoffs screams failure

Good to see you back man. And not all psycho!!!

Anyhow, I don't hate what Charles said. Let them think we are not a contender!

 

[RoyIsClutch07]

Sir Charles says that it's the Lakers, Spurs, Cavs, Celtics, Magic...and then everybody else. Also says that each team's chances essentially hinge on their key additions (Artest, Jefferson, Shaq, 'Sheed, and Carter/Bass).

So, what say you?

Charles being Charles. But the blazers will make a believer out of him simply because they are the second best team in the west. They will prove that in time. San Antonio won't keep it together in the health department. The blazers will be overwhelming for Denver to handle. So in the end. He will have no choice but to become a believer. There ain't a better team in the league on paper than the blazers. The only thing that is holding them back is experience. Experience is why Barkely refuses to give them the love.

But he will.

 

[MIXUM]

and who knows about us.

rudy and nic are already hurt. webster is a major ? mark. can oden stay healthy?

 

[Nikolokolus]

You know very well, or should, that the difference between a first round exit and a possible WCF date with LA was less then a second. That's all it took for Michael Finley's game winning POST BUZZER three pointer to radically reorder the standings. Without it we play NOH or SA in the first round and likely advance, Second round brings the Nuggets and a 50-50 shot at the WCF. If you watched this team last year you know we are on par with any team in the league other then LA and the Cavs. Houston was like rock when we were scissors with most of the league being paper. There was no chance we would beat Houston as they were a matchup nightmare for us. Hell they took LA to 7 missing Yao for 5 of the games.

And you should know that teams with a losing road record and a .500 record overall against other playoff teams are not contenders. I couldn't care less who our draw was in the first round last year. It could have been the Mavs, Spurs, or Hornets and there still wouldn't have been any guarantee of getting out of the first round let alone advancing to the WCF.

It goes without saying that if Oden doesn't produce at a star level (not necessarily All-Star or Superstar but at least top 5 Center) we won't win a ring. Being contenders though? We already are. Also ran's are teams like NOH and Utah. We're at least Darkhorse picks if not elite tier (SA, ORL, BOS level) only LeBron and Kobe truly stand head and shoulders above Portland.

By saying we are a darkhorse, you're pretty much validating my whole point that this team is not a truly serious contender; darkhorse teams are that way because they haven't proved anything and are relying on a perception of potential not production. Furthermore, they usually require a lot of lucky breaks or a near miracle run to win a title.

If on the other hand you had said we are contenders to get to the second round or possibly advance all the way to the conference finals then I will concede that they have a chance, but that's all at this point.

 

[MrSelfDestruct]

Experience is why Barkely refuses to give them the love.

But he will.

He won't as long as we are a jump shooting team in his eyes.

 

[RoyIsClutch07]

He won't as long as we are a jump shooting team in his eyes.

Prob true. But do you think that aspect of this teams game will change?

 

[Mediocre Man]

He is spot on IMO as well.


Portland shoots too many jump shots to be considered a serious contender. And unlike Orlando, we have no consistant post game to rely on.


These people that keep saying we were locks to get to WCF if only the matchups were different crack me up as well. Portland got their ass handed to them at home in the first game, and probably would have against most teams.

 

[illmatic99]

Portland shoots too many jump shots to be considered a serious contender. And unlike Orlando, we have no consistant post game to rely on.

Miller should help with the jump shots thing. Just hope he actually replaces Blake.

 

[MrSelfDestruct]

Prob true. But do you think that aspect of this teams game will change?

I presume it will. The addition of Miller should help with that immensely. I REALLY hope that he is able to get the Oden more involved, and hit LMA when he leaks out on the break.

I wasn't saying I agree with what I posted, I just meant that Barkley seems to have no respect for jump shooting teams.

 

[Erroneous Subterfuge]

You know very well, or should, that the difference between a first round exit and a possible WCF date with LA was less then a second. That's all it took for Michael Finley's game winning POST BUZZER three pointer to radically reorder the standings. Without it we play NOH or SA in the first round and likely advance, Second round brings the Nuggets and a 50-50 shot at the WCF. If you watched this team last year you know we are on par with any team in the league other then LA and the Cavs. Houston was like rock when we were scissors with most of the league being paper. There was no chance we would beat Houston as they were a matchup nightmare for us. Hell they took LA to 7 missing Yao for 5 of the games.

Coulda woulda shoulda... It didn't happen. I'm right there with you about that post buzzer shot probably drastically effecting Portland's post-season success, but nobody cares about excuses. The fact of the matter is we got bullied in the playoffs and had an early exit.

I think it's perfectly fair to not lump Portland in that category. I think it would be a huge upset if Portland were to win it all this year, given the teams core youth, relative post-season inexperience, and totally unproven ability to beat good teams on the road. The onus is on Portland to change peoples minds, and until they do that on the court we shouldn't expect the national media to lump us in the same category as teams that have already proved they're contenders. I think this is the year we prove that.

 

[tlongII]

I don't have a problem with what he said, but I think he's wrong. I believe we're at the same level as the Lakers and Cavs right now. Yes, we lost in the 1st round last year but so what? We're adding Miller and Webster and our youngsters have an added year of experience. We were a 54 win team last year and I think we're easily 6 games better this year which would put us at 60 wins. A 60 win team is definitely a threat for the title.

 

[graybeard]

It's too bad that Missouri doesn't have a team that all you "show me" guys can root for.

The blazers are going to battle LA for the WCF. What ever happened to believing in your team?

 

[Shooter]

You know what I love about sports? Anything is possible. I remember watching Villanova knock off mighty Georgetown in the NCAA finals in 1985, and shaking my head in disbelief. I remember watching the Golden State Warriors sweep the heavily favored Washington Bullets 4-0 in the 1975 NBA finals, and celebrating the amazing accomplishment. And I remember the Blazers beating the heavily favored Philadelphia 76ers in the 1977 NBA finals . . . and the city of Portland going crazy with Blazermania.

ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE.

ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE.

Say it to yourself when you go to sleep tonight, because it's true.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

Recent experience suggests he is wrong.

The Cavs were not considered a title contender when they went to the finals - then they went and are now considered contenders.

Ditto for the Magic.

Are we really contenders? Shrug. I will absolutely not be surprised if we win it all. Nor will I be surprised if we flame out in the second round. Flame out in the first round? That would surprise me.

OTOH, if I really considered us contenders, I'd put my $ where my mouth is:
http://www.vegas.com/gaming/futures/nbabasketball.html

 

[RoyIsClutch07]

I presume it will. The addition of Miller should help with that immensely. I REALLY hope that he is able to get the Oden more involved, and hit LMA when he leaks out on the break.

I wasn't saying I agree with what I posted, I just meant that Barkley seems to have no respect for jump shooting teams.

And he doesn't but as much as we hate for it to be.

He's right. Coach and the team needs to change that. They stop themselves from taking it to the hole. It's not the defense.

 

[Mediocre Man]

It's too bad that Missouri doesn't have a team that all you "show me" guys can root for.

The blazers are going to battle LA for the WCF. What ever happened to believing in your team?

So since I am a Raiders fan as well, I should expect them to go to the Superbowl?

Did you believe the Blazers would win a title last year? Do you believe they will win every year?

There is nothing wrong with thinking your team is good, and still think they are a year or two, or player or two away from competing for a title.

 

[RoyIsClutch07]

So since I am a Raiders fan as well, I should expect them to go to the Superbowl?

Did you believe the Blazers would win a title last year? Do you believe they will win every year?

There is nothing wrong with thinking your team is good, and still think they are a year or two, or player or two away from competing for a title.

Well you know I believe in Santa Claus but it doesn't mean he will come down the chimney on xmas eve.

It's good to believe. I believe that if certain things happen. They can and just might win it all this year.

 

[Blaz06Draft]

I posted the following on BEdge earlier this summer:

DEEP PLAYOFF RUN

The Blazers have great prospects for a deep playoff run this year.

Remember how our incredibly young team played last year in the face of what many call the most difficult schedule ever. 54 wins. This with our starting small forward out for the season and our #1 draft pick center coming back from microfracture surgery, out of shape, and suffering from several injuries during the season.

We had 3 rookies contribute significantly, and the jump to second year is often the greatest. Rudy hit the most 3 pointers of any rookie ever, and Batum was a surprise defensive stopper assigned to guard the league's elite.

Our franchise guard -- Roy -- had a season that only Jordan, Kobe, and Carter have equaled in terms of high output, mistake free ball. He is one of 17 guards in all NBA history to make 2nd team all-NBA in his third season.

Our franchise center -- Oden (ludicrously labeled a bust by many) -- despite his injury and shape issues, had rookie year offensive rebounding percentages that were equal to the rookie years of Rodman and Moses Malone, and better than those of Buck Williams and Barkley (the 4 best O rebounders of the last 35 years). And his O rebound % was higher than Dwight Howard's last year.

Finally, look at how we played during the stretch run last year. Over the last 10 games of the regular season, we played incredibly well, and much of this was defensive, not the efficient offense we heard of all year. These are just the defensive stats:

* #1 in opponents points allowed (wide margin)

* #3 in opponents field goal percentage

* #1 (tie) in opponents 3 point percentage

* #1 in opponents assists allowed (wide margin)

* #1 in opponents rebounds allowed (wide margin)

To this, we add Andre Miller, the best free agent point guard (Sportsline), a savvy vet who is one of the better assist men in the league. He is a long term starter, and played 75% of point guard minutes for Philly last year. Point guard was a weakness for the Blazers last year, with a positional net PER of -0.2. Philly had a point guard positional net PER of 3.8 (3rd in league), which is about the same PER advantage the Blazers had at power forward (LaMarcus/Travis). So this is a very significant upgrade to the team.

Before adding Miller, we had the following positional net PERs:

PG -0.2, 16th in league
SG +6.1, 3rd in league
SF +2.7, 7th in league
PF +4.0, 2nd in league
C -0.8, 16th in league

So we covered quite well one of our weak PER areas, bringing in the PG from the team with the 3rd best net PER in the league. Blake played 55% of PG minutes with a net PER of +1.2, so he outplayed his opposition. It was our backup PGs that take our rating negative: Sergio (30% of PG minutes at net PER -1.1) and Bayless (11% of PG minutes at net PER of -5.9).

The other PER "weakness" is center, but we have the #1 rebounding center position in the league, and this advantage is likely to increase as Oden stays on the court more.

The surprise our ranking in net PER from the SF position. We were ranked 7th last year. This is misleading, as Roy played 25% of our SF minutes with a net PER of +18.3 (phenomenal!). Batum played 35% of SF minutes with a net PER of -1.6, and Travis played 37% of the SF minutes with a -3.1 PER. Of our "true" SF, Batum should improve, and Martell is back, replacing Travis. Martell's net PER in 07/08 was -2.7, so not much difference in net PER from Travis.

Finally, our subtractions were minimal: mainly Sergio (backup point guard with 31% of point guard minutes last year) and Frye (3rd string power forward with 19% of power forward minutes),

We should be able to field a starting team with mostly strongly positive net PERs (82games):

Miller + 2.9
Roy + 9.4
Batum - 1.6
Aldridge +6.1
Oden +2.8

Our backups would be:
Blake +1.2
Rudy +4.5
Martell -2.7
Travis +3.1
Pryz 0.0

I imagine we will play more Rudy at SG (net PER of 4.5) and have Roy play more SF. While Roy's net PER at SG exceeds Rudy's by a lot (9.4 vs 4.5), Roy's net PER at SF exceeds anyone we've got by a far cry. This would give us the following team, which is probably our 4th quarter closing team::

Miller + 2.9
Rudy +4.5
Roy +18.3
Aldridge +6.1
Oden +2.8

Roy's surprising strength at SF deserves some comparisons with the league's best (showing % of team's minutes at that position and net PER)

LeBron as SF: 56%, +20.8

Roy as SF: 25%, +18.3

Wade as SG: 67%, + 17.0

Kobe as SG: 72%, +14.1

Howard as C: 71%, +12.8

Roy SF/SG: 72%, +12.5

Roy as SG: 47%, +9.4

Anthony as SF: 54%, +8.2

Pierce as SF: 72%, + 5.7

This makes the Roy as SF idea all the more intriguing.


Let me now address our competion's "adds." The Lakers added Artest (net PER 5.3), big upgrade from Ariza (net PER 0.8). Took an average position and made it strong. The Spurs added Jefferson (net PER 3.4) big upgrade from Finley (net PER -2.6). Took a weak position and made it pretty good. So both of these teams got much stronger at the PF position, now our weakest position.

So we are poised to be an improved team, but our competition improved as well. We have strong prospects of making a deep playoff run, but it won't be easy. Go Blazers!

 

[Charcoal Filtered]

This is why Charles loses alot of money in Vegas. He would have lumped Orlando into the "having no chance" category last year, only for them to go to the finals. The mistake I see him and Kenny Smith making is that the teams you start the year with are not the ones that end the season. I say Smith because he said the Lakers were going to win 4 of the next 5 NBA championships last year.

You never know who is going to make a Gasol or Rasheed trade down the stretch that would boost one of the teams on the cusp.

 

[BlayZa]

CB34 is on the money.