Basketball Prospectus on Roy's budding superstardom

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Minstrel

Minstrel

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Byron Scott saw it before I did. After the New Orleans Hornets lost to the Portland Trail Blazers at the Rose Garden on Nov. 28, Scott was asked about Brandon Roy by a local reporter.

"As coaches, when we scout Portland we kind of put him in the same category as Kobe [Bryant], LeBron [James], Dwyane Wade," Scott answered. "We treat him the same. He's that good."

At the time, the comment seemed like a nice compliment to pay to a rival after a hard loss, but frankly a bit of an exaggeration. The next time I was in Portland, Ben Golliver of seminal Portland blog Blazer's Edge took a very different path to draw a similar conclusion, observing that Roy was carrying himself with the air of a superstar. I wasn't convinced.

Things finally clicked for me Tuesday, in an otherwise-forgettable Blazers blowout of the Sacramento Kings. I was struck by Roy's 15-of-15 effort from the free-throw line, setting career highs for both makes and attempts in a night shortened by the lopsided margin. If there was any doubt remaining, it was removed last night, when Roy scored a career-high 52 points (joining Tony Parker as the only NBA players to hit the 50-point mark this season) and knocked down the game-winning three-pointer in the Blazers' wild 124-119 win against the Phoenix Suns on TNT.

It is obvious now: Roy has made the leap to superstardom.

The numbers agree. With his performance Thursday, Roy vaulted into sixth in the NBA in Wins Above Replacement Player for the 2008-09 season. The group he trails--James, Chris Paul, Dwight Howard, Wade and Tim Duncan, in that order--makes up the early competition for MVP, with the possible addition of Bryant. To that extent, the chants of "M-V-P" that rung from the Rose Garden rafters during Roy's career night weren't unreasonable.
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The key difference has been Roy's ability to get to the free-throw line. Whether it's due to an elevation in his status amongst the league's officials or simply the difficulty in keeping him out of the lane, Roy has seen his free-throw attempts surge forward. He's broken his career high for free-throw attempts three times in the last five games, including 21 tries against the Suns.

...

If Roy had an offensive weakness during his first two seasons, it was that he tended to rely too much on scoring via the two-point basket, in general the least efficient method. Because of his unique ability to finish in the paint and his highly accurate midrange jumper, Roy made it work. Nonetheless, scoring more points via the free-throw line and from beyond the arc was an easy way for Roy to improve his True Shooting Percentage, only average so far during his career. Three-point range remains a work in progress, but when Roy is hitting from downtown, as he was against the Suns (5-of-7 on threes), he is virtually unstoppable.
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http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=478
 
If Brandon ever gets a consistent 40 percent-ish from three he would be the best shooting guard in the league hands down -- zero real weaknesses -- my guess is that he adds it to his aresenal over the next couple of off-seasons.
 
I think Roy's pretty good. We should keep him.
 
Nikolokolus said:
If Brandon ever gets a consistent 40 percent-ish from three he would be the best shooting guard in the league hands down -- zero real weaknesses -- my guess is that he adds it to his aresenal over the next couple of off-seasons.
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I'd settle for consistently 37-38%. 40% is elite three-point shooting, and that seems unlikely to happen (though I'd be thrilled if it did).

But I really hope this Wade-like free throw generation is here to stay.
 
Roy has changed in a noticable way in the last 2 games. He's figured out that the team could easily lose if he is merely "Mr. 4th Quarter." He's now bringing it earlier, so....

Last 2 games: Roy scores a lot --->> Blazers doing well.
Previously: Roy scores a lot ---->> Blazers faltering.
 
Zybot said:
Huh, really, you think that? I kind of wish we had kept Telfair or Foye. :lol:
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No, let's keep Roy instead . . . but don't let him score over 30pts/game because the sentiment is we'll lose if he does.
 
For years I've really wanted someone on this team that could be counted on to score when the team needed it. Someone who could take over games when things mattered. We had Zach Randolph, but his points were always quiet, and really had very little bearing on the outcome of the game. Roy reminds me of Steve Smith, when Steve Smith was still young and athletic. His ability to hit the dagger in the heart is truly a rare talent in the NBA.

We've seen him progress as a scorer. His first two seasons in the NBA he was clutch, and he could score when the team needed him to, but he always looked tentative at times. I remember watching Roy standing around on the perimeter last season, and thinking "I wish Brandon would assert himself more." Well, that time has come. Brandon is elevating his game. The thing that really stood out to me last night was his free throws.... 21 attempts... that's insane. That's Dwyane Wade. I was watching him draw fouls on Richardson and I was thinking... I've seen this before. It must have been extremely frustrating for Richardson, and for Suns fans.

We are truly blessed to have Brandon on this team. Now if we can just get Oden and Aldridge going...
 
Minstrel said:
I'd settle for consistently 37-38%. 40% is elite three-point shooting, and that seems unlikely to happen (though I'd be thrilled if it did).

But I really hope this Wade-like free throw generation is here to stay.
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Yeah I guess that's why I said "ish" 38% would be just peachy.
 
Natebishop3 said:
For years I've really wanted someone on this team that could be counted on to score when the team needed it. Someone who could take over games when things mattered. We had Zach Randolph, but his points were always quiet, and really had very little bearing on the outcome of the game. Roy reminds me of Steve Smith, when Steve Smith was still young and athletic. His ability to hit the dagger in the heart is truly a rare talent in the NBA.

We've seen him progress as a scorer. His first two seasons in the NBA he was clutch, and he could score when the team needed him to, but he always looked tentative at times. I remember watching Roy standing around on the perimeter last season, and thinking "I wish Brandon would assert himself more." Well, that time has come. Brandon is elevating his game. The thing that really stood out to me last night was his free throws.... 21 attempts... that's insane. That's Dwyane Wade. I was watching him draw fouls on Richardson and I was thinking... I've seen this before. It must have been extremely frustrating for Richardson, and for Suns fans.

We are truly blessed to have Brandon on this team. Now if we can just get Oden and Aldridge going...
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I noticed during his post game interview he kept mentioning how his teammates were kind of egging him on to keep it flowing and he was asking Nate constantly during stoppages if he was being too selfish. Wouldn't it be wild if the only thing (well not the only thing) that had been holding Roy back from dominance was just his mindset? I do think he has limitations, but this past week has revealed a Roy I never knew could exist.
 
Nikolokolus said:
Wouldn't it be wild if the only thing (well not the only thing) that had been holding Roy back from dominance was just his mindset?
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Heh, and he just had his "There is no spoon" moment.

"You mean...I can score at will and still be a good teammate? Well, that's what I'll do then!"
 
Minstrel said:
Heh, and he just had his "There is no spoon" moment.

"You mean...I can score at will and still be a good teammate? Well, that's what I'll do then!"
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And as he does it more and more, his teammates should benefit more and more. Hopefully this will take some of the spotlight off Oden. If Greg can just keep improving... getting double/doubles, I'll be happy. Let Roy have the spotlight right now. He's earned it. It will stop being "Greg Oden and the Portland Trail Blazers" and start being "Brand Roy and the Portland Trail Blazers."
 
Though it may not be a popular idea, but I do think that one of the big reasons for his improvement is the refs. We've all watched games in the past 2 years where Roy would get into the lane just like he is now, get fouled just like he is now, but not getting a call - sometimes even when the call was obvious.

Put another way, the refs have decided that Roy is a superstar.

I'm reminded of the "Joe Dumars? You can't touch Joe Dumars" comment from a ref years ago.

Brandon Roy, welcome to the Elite.
:cheers::cheers::cheers:
 
Natebishop3 said:
And as he does it more and more, his teammates should benefit more and more. Hopefully this will take some of the spotlight off Oden. If Greg can just keep improving... getting double/doubles, I'll be happy. Let Roy have the spotlight right now. He's earned it. It will stop being "Greg Oden and the Portland Trail Blazers" and start being "Brand Roy and the Portland Trail Blazers."
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Truth. I loathe the national media when I hear them refer to the team with Oden in the preface; I think Greg is probably going to turn into a pretty special player in his own right some day, but it's a huge disrespect to Brandon (and everyone else on that team for that matter) when it occurs.
 
And it wasn't that long ago that some folks were suggesting that Rudy was going to make Roy expendable! :biglaugh:
 
Minstrel said:
I'd settle for consistently 37-38%. 40% is elite three-point shooting, and that seems unlikely to happen (though I'd be thrilled if it did).

But I really hope this Wade-like free throw generation is here to stay.
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Nothing seems unlikely with Roy anymore. He seems to improve beyond anyone's expectations every year. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if he started averaging 8 assists a game one year.
 
crowTrobot said:
or had been able to draft bargnani, morrison, tyrus thomas, or shelden williams instead :ohno:
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It's sort like KP danced through a minefield to pick two gems out of the garbage. Just think we could have Randy Foye and Tyrus Thomas. *shudder*
 
In addition to all the other things mentioned - I wonder what the knee injury (and surgery) in the off-season has done to him - he looks a lot more explosive this year. Maybe he was not 100% before athletically?
 
Natebishop3 said:
Or worse.... Adam Morrison and Sheldon Williams.
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I am pretty sure I remember during that draft that Colin Cowherd claimed that Brandon Roy, Sheldon Williams, Adam Morrison, and JJ Reddick were can't-miss prospects. I guess a .250 Batting Average isn't horrible....
 
I wonder who Pritchard would have taken had Chicago wanted Aldridge with their original pick. Would KP have taken Roy with this first pick?

It's fascinating to think how the dominoes fell to allow Portland to take, basically, the two best players in the draft. (Gay is not impressing me this season...he hasn't improved, he's regressed a bit.)
 
Minstrel said:
I wonder who Pritchard would have taken had Chicago wanted Aldridge with their original pick. Would KP have taken Roy with this first pick?
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or second pick even if charlotte took Gay and Ammo was still on the board. ironic if MJ ended up playing a roll in portland winning a championship : )
 
Minstrel said:
It's fascinating to think how the dominoes fell to allow Portland to take, basically, the two best players in the draft. (Gay is not impressing me this season...he hasn't improved, he's regressed a bit.)
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of course, you could say the same about aldridge so far.
 
Minstrel said:
It's fascinating to think how the dominoes fell to allow Portland to take, basically, the two best players in the draft. (Gay is not impressing me this season...he hasn't improved, he's regressed a bit.)
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At least two of 3. I am not sure LMA is better than Rondo.
 
rocketeer said:
of course, you could say the same about aldridge so far.
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I can, and have (that he's regressed). However, he plays better defense than Gay and I think his role has been more unsettled. Though that's fairly debatable.
 
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