Basketball Prospectus on Roy's budding superstardom

[Ed O]

At least two of 3. I am not sure LMA is better than Rondo.

Rondo's doing well, but playing with three HoFers sometimes makes things easier. Rondo's perimeter game is atrocious but he fits in well with what the Celtics need from him.

Ed O.

 

[andalusian]

Rondo's doing well, but playing with three HoFers sometimes makes things easier. Rondo's perimeter game is atrocious but he fits in well with what the Celtics need from him.

Atrocious? This might have been true in their rookie year - but Rondo has a higher TS%, FG% and eFG% than LMA - and he is a freaking guard.

If there is one area where Rondo is definitely not good - it's his 3P shooting percentage - but other than that he is a lot better than atrocious.

Yes, Rondo benefits from playing next to the big 3 (it should be argued however that he is more important to Boston's success this year than Ray Ray) - but he is still a fantastic player. If you look at their respective games - Rondo is higher in PER and win-share this year than LaMarcus, despite being used less (his usage%) than LMA.

There is a reason Rondo will likely make the all-star team this year - and that's because he is a fine fine player - there are only 4 point guards in the entire league who are clearly better than him this year (5 if you include Terry, I guess) - and these are CP3, Harris, Billups and Parker. I assume that when D-Will returns to form he will be better than him as well - but the kid is far from being atrocious in any way, shape or form.

 

[Boob-No-More]

of course, you could say the same about aldridge so far.

Gay and Aldridge are both down, stat wise, by similar amounts this season, but Aldridge is still ahead of Gay in both EFF and PER.

Aldridge:
2007-08 - PER = 18.5 EFF = 18.46
2008-09 - PER = 17.9 EFF = 16.85

Gay:
2007-08 - PER = 17.5 EFF = 18.42
2008-09 - PER = 16.9 EFF = 16.12

Gay scores more, but Aldridge remains a slightly more productive, slightly more efficient player. Disregarding positional need, I think if the 2006 draft redone today, most GMs would take the big man (Aldridge) over the higher scoring, but less efficient wing (Gay). Their performance is similar enough that the deciding factor would be their size/position and that tips the balance in Aldridge's favor.

I also think both players' slightly decreased performance this year can be attributed to changing roles and adjusting to new teammates.

BNM

 

[Ed O]

Atrocious? This might have been true in their rookie year - but Rondo has a higher TS%, FG% and eFG% than LMA - and he is a freaking guard.

If there is one area where Rondo is definitely not good - it's his 3P shooting percentage - but other than that he is a lot better than atrocious.

Yes, atrocious. Not only does he shoot a horrific percentage from threes, he also almost never shoots them. He's really, really bad as a perimeter shooter.

http://www.82games.com/0809/08BOS1.HTM

He has a 24.7 eFG% on jumpshots. Compare that to Sergio's 44.1 and Aldridge's 40.7. And Telfair's 34.6. It's horrific.

There is a reason Rondo will likely make the all-star team this year - and that's because he is a fine fine player - there are only 4 point guards in the entire league who are clearly better than him this year (5 if you include Terry, I guess) - and these are CP3, Harris, Billups and Parker. I assume that when D-Will returns to form he will be better than him as well - but the kid is far from being atrocious in any way, shape or form.

I think you're kidding yourself if you think he's anything better than an atrocious perimeter shooter. By your logic Shaq could never POSSIBLY have been a terrible free throw shooter because he was so great in other areas.

And I think it'd be hard to argue that if he played for, say, Charlotte or the Clippers that he'd make the all-star game this year.

Ed O.

 

[rocketeer]

Gay and Aldridge are both down, stat wise, by similar amounts this season, but Aldridge is still ahead of Gay in both EFF and PER.

Aldridge:
2007-08 - PER = 18.5 EFF = 18.46
2008-09 - PER = 17.9 EFF = 16.85

Gay:
2007-08 - PER = 17.5 EFF = 18.42
2008-09 - PER = 16.9 EFF = 16.12

Gay scores more, but Aldridge remains a slightly more productive, slightly more efficient player. Disregarding positional need, I think if the 2006 draft redone today, most GMs would take the big man (Aldridge) over the higher scoring, but less efficient wing (Gay). Their performance is similar enough that the deciding factor would be their size/position and that tips the balance in Aldridge's favor.

I also think both players' slightly decreased performance this year can be attributed to changing roles and adjusting to new teammates.

BNM

i'd say that the players are close and that the blazers definitely got at least two of the top three players out of the draft. the top player obviously being roy and the next two being aldridge and gay.

who is better between aldridge and gay is debatable, i just didn't think it was a good argument saying that gay has regressed as if that would suggest aldridge is better when in this case the stats would indicate that both players have taken a bit of a step back this year.

 

[rocketeer]

He has a 24.7 eFG% on jumpshots. Compare that to Sergio's 44.1 and Aldridge's 40.7. And Telfair's 34.6. It's horrific.

just in case you were wondering, 82games.com classifies anything outside of 7 feet in the "jump shot" category. so outside of 7 feet, rondo's efg% is just under 25%. that is pretty pathetic.

 

[Boob-No-More]

who is better between aldridge and gay is debatable, i just didn't think it was a good argument saying that gay has regressed as if that would suggest aldridge is better when in this case the stats would indicate that both players have taken a bit of a step back this year.

Agreed, and that was my point. Aldridge and Gay are close enough in stats/talent/production that I think most GMs would take the bigger player - not becuase he's head and shoulders better, but simpley because when two players are otherwise equal, you take the big. Talented 6'11" guys are harder to find than talented 6'9" guys.

Still, I bet the Raptors, Bulls, Bobcats, Hawks, and Timberwolves would all be thrilled to death to have either Aldridge or Gay compared with the players they ended up with that day.

BNM

 

[Entity]

New Quick article on Roy

But while most reporters surrounded Roy after Friday's practice to relive the second-highest point total in team history, McMillan's mind-set was farther up the road, and on much greater things than a victory over Phoenix.

"That championship one day will happen if this continues," McMillan said. "You just need a player like this."

Unmistakable as it is powerful, Roy in his third NBA season is evolving from an All-Star into a superstar. The transformation is so defined that even Roy felt comfortable Friday referring to his recent play as "the new Brandon Roy."

The new Brandon Roy? Is this going to be permanent?

 

[PapaG]

Now, he has embraced the role of scorer, yet he worries about the manner in which he is going about it. On Thursday, Roy entered the halftime locker room and asked Shavlik Randolph whether he was being too aggressive, when in essence he was asking whether he was being too selfish

The team leader and All-Star is asking Shavlik Randolph, the 15th man on the roster, to assess his game.

The city of Portland has a very special player on their hands. Wow.

 

[Darkwebs]

The team leader and All-Star is asking Shavlik Randolph, the 15th man on the roster, to assess his game.

The city of Portland has a very special player on their hands. Wow.

Hmm...interesting. But why didn't Brandon ask somebody who was playing in the game?

 

[Nikolokolus]

New Quick article on Roy



The new Brandon Roy? Is this going to be permanent?

I sure as hell hope so. It's not like Brandon is suddenly morphing into AI or a woofing KG. I have a feeling he's always going to be one of those guys with his head on right enough to be able to constantly question whether he's calling his own number too much or not and frankly I think his swagger and confidence is something that will be infectious with his teammates -- we saw flashes of that the other night.

 

[PapaG]

Hmm...interesting. But why didn't Brandon ask somebody who was playing in the game?

My thought was that Roy includes EVERYONE on the roster into the "circle". Do you think Kobe Bryant is asking Josh Powell about his game? Or even Pau Gasol?

 

[Darkwebs]

My thought was that Roy includes EVERYONE on the roster into the "circle". Do you think Kobe Bryant is asking Josh Powell about his game? Or even Pau Gasol?

No, Kobe would most likely not ask his teammates if he's talking too many shots.

But I just think it would make more sense to ask someone is actually participating in the offense and the game. So that's why I brought that up.

 

[Entity]

It's funny how, ever since we scouted him before the draft, people always said things like "He's alright, but he's already pretty close to his ceiling." Then he became an all-star and they said, "He's good, but he's already pretty close to his ceiling." And yet he keeps getting better.

 

[KingSpeed]

If Brandon ever gets a consistent 40 percent-ish from three he would be the best shooting guard in the league hands down -- zero real weaknesses -- my guess is that he adds it to his aresenal over the next couple of off-seasons.

Kobe's shooting only 29.5% from the three point line.

 

[Darkwebs]

It's funny how, ever since we scouted him before the draft, people always said things like "He's alright, but he's already pretty close to his ceiling." Then he became an all-star and they said, "He's good, but he's already pretty close to his ceiling." And yet he keeps getting better.

Yep. I remember when Roy had his slump early last season, seemingly regressing a bit from his ROY season. And I thought he might only turn out to be a good role player for our team; I became content with that idea. But then he proved me wrong by taking his game to the next level, leading our team to a 13-game winning streak, and making the All-Star game.

Then I thought, "Cool, he made an All-Star game. Perhaps he can make 2 or 3 more All-Star games in his career."

Now I'm thinking that he can be a 10 time All-Star and will possibly make some All-NBA teams. Roy just keeps on surprising me and a lot of others with his ability to keep on stepping up his game. It will be interesting to see if he could become an elite player along with the likes of a LeBron, Chris Paul, Kobe, et al.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Kobe's shooting only 29.5% from the three point line.

You know as well as I do that's not his career average.

 

[rocketeer]

You know as well as I do that's not his career average.

of course his career average is lower than roy's.

 

[Nikolokolus]

of course his career average is lower than roy's.

True, he's 34% for his career and Brandon shoots 36% so far, but statistically speaking that's a pretty insignificant difference.

 

[PapaG]

True, he's 34% for his career and Brandon shoots 36% so far, but statistically speaking that's a pretty insignificant difference.

It's still lower though, and Bryant shoots more threes compared to Roy during the course of their careers, and this season they are pretty much even yet Roy is shooting it better by 7 points.

 

[Shooter]

Nothing seems unlikely with Roy anymore. He seems to improve beyond anyone's expectations every year. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if he started averaging 8 assists a game one year.

So true. I remember some of the NBA "experts" saying at the time of the '06 draft that Roy was more "NBA-ready," but that players like Gay had a higher ceiling. Well, Roy's ceiling keeps getting higher and higher, and some of the guys he was drafted with keep looking more and more ordinary.

 

[Sedatedfork]

It's funny how, ever since we scouted him before the draft, people always said things like "He's alright, but he's already pretty close to his ceiling." Then he became an all-star and they said, "He's good, but he's already pretty close to his ceiling." And yet he keeps getting better.

Great post and observation. I am shocked at how Roy keeps getting better. Major props to Roy. He could have sat on his laurels, but he just keeps getting better.

 

[Ed O]

Great post and observation. I am shocked at how Roy keeps getting better. Major props to Roy. He could have sat on his laurels, but he just keeps getting better.

Seconded/thirded.

He keeps exceeding expectations because he is so smooth on the court that he makes it look effortless and he's so classy off the court that it's easy to assume he's matured as a player as much as he has as a speaker/person.

Ed O.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

So true. I remember some of the NBA "experts" saying at the time of the '06 draft that Roy was more "NBA-ready," but that players like Gay had a higher ceiling. Well, Roy's ceiling keeps getting higher and higher, and some of the guys he was drafted with keep looking more and more ordinary.

Yeah, that's what amazes me too. Stephen A going on about how Roy is average at best. That he slipped to 6th or 7th (depending on how you view it)... you look at him now, and he's the #1 pick of 2006, with LA still at #2. KP can ride his entire career on 2006, he did so well.