Batman

[MickZagger]

Lin's advanced statistics are better than Deron Williams'

Chris Paul
Jeremy Lin
Deron Williams


..................................................

I know this might be a foreign term to you, but its called sample size.

 

[RoyToy]

"Numbers don't lie"

- Mickzagger

 

[MickZagger]

"Numbers don't lie"

- Mickzagger

So you're still clueless of what a sample size is?

 

[THE HCP]

Hey RoyToy...... is this whole "hate on Nic" a big game you are playing? Are you just bored? You can't have any type of grasp of knowledge of the game whatsoever if you can not recognize his abilities! The kid and I mean 23 year old kid has game and TONS of potential. I think Nate finally noticed nobody was giving him the ball when he was out there with bench guys and knew he had to get him some run with Camby and LA who know how to get him involved! If your just fucking around, haha...... if not, you have no credibility around here son!

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Can we have a side by side stat comparison of Nic and Gay?

Just for you, Señor.

Rk	Player	Season	Age	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	FT	FTA	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PTS
1	Batum	2011-12	23	5.9	12.9	.461	2.3	5.4	.416	3.5	4.3	.827	1.9	3.6	5.5	1.4	1.3	1.3	1.7	17.7
2	Gay	2009-10	23	6.8	14.6	.466	0.7	2.3	.327	3.4	4.5	.753	1.3	4.0	5.4	1.7	1.3	0.7	1.9	17.8

 

[Nikolokolus]

Can we have a side by side stat comparison of Nic and Gay?

I know PtldPlatypus already posted one comp, but for completeness' sake here they are at age 23, this season and cumulative.

Both age 23

Both this season

Both cumulative

For the record I think Rudy Gay is a good player -- An above average player who takes an above average number of shots to shoot a pretty average field goal percentage and take a below average number of free throw attempts. Would Nic's percentages suffer if he was taking 19 FGA's a game? I don't know, but those times when he's been given the touches and the responsibility I think he's started to demonstrate that he's capable of much much more than he's been given.

 

[illmatic99]

Gay got a contract for 5yrs, $82mil.

 

[Minstrel]

For the record I think Rudy Gay is a good player -- An above average player who takes an above average number of shots to shoot a pretty average field goal percentage and take a below average number of free throw attempts. Would Nic's percentages suffer if he was taking 19 FGA's a game? I don't know, but those times when he's been given the touches and the responsibility I think he's started to demonstrate that he's capable of much much more than he's been given.

This is pretty much my view too. Gay has value as a player, though it's dramatically overstated and he's greatly overpaid, but his best skill is taking quite a few shots to get quite a few points. Not every player is capable of taking close to 20 shots a game at average scoring efficiency, but it's still not a remarkable feat. The really valuable players are either those who can shoot a lot at an above-average scoring efficiency or else blend average efficiency scoring with other skills (like, for example, defense or play-making for others). Gay is neither one of those.

It remains to be seen how Batum's scoring efficiency will track with more shots, consistently. But right now, I definitely wouldn't say that Gay is a superior player. Batum is scoring at a much more efficient clip, while generally matching Gay across the rest of the advanced statistical board (similar rebound rate, lower turnover rate to balance lower assist rate) and plays better defense, IMO. That better scoring efficiency and defense, to me, is worth more than Gay taking more shots.

 

[mook]

The comparison gets a little more lopsided in Batum's favor when you just look at his 5 games as a starting shooting guard: 21ppg, 6rebs, 50fg%, 37%3fg%.

It's a small sample size, but those are some pretty snazzy numbers there for a shooting guard. If he were to do that for a full season (and still put in all that great defense) he could be an All Star. Ginobili made two all star games with worse numbers (although he played fewer minutes).

 

[illmatic99]

If Nic can keep this up, 4yrs, $40 is a bargain.

 

[magnifier661]

If Nic can keep this up, 4yrs, $40 is a bargain.

If Batum can put together a 15-16 PPG, 45% FG and 40% Three. That would still be a bargin. Let's not even factor the intangibles like steals, blocks and rebounds that he's doing so well lately.

 

[mook]

Batum's about as productive in the last 5 games as Aldridge was before he got his big 5 year, $60 mil contract (which, in hindsight, was a freakin' steal). If he can finish out the season at this level, I'd expect to see him paid about the same.

He's never lacked a motor, only confidence and certain skills. Much like Aldridge at that point. So it seems like a contract that, at minimum, would be decent value throughout, but a steal if he can make the progress that Aldridge made.

 

[magnifier661]

Batum's about as productive in the last 5 games as Aldridge was before he got his big 5 year, $60 mil contract (which, in hindsight, was a freakin' steal). If he can finish out the season at this level, I'd expect to see him paid about the same.

He's never lacked a motor, only confidence and certain skills. Much like Aldridge at that point. So it seems like a contract that, at minimum, would be decent value throughout, but a steal if he can make the progress that Aldridge made.

Well let's hope we can steal him so we can bring in a couple pieces to take the next step.

 

[illmatic99]

I think we might have jinxed him. Watch him put up a stinker tonight. #lifeofablazerfan

 

[Nikolokolus]

I think we might have jinxed him. Watch him put up a stinker tonight. #lifeofablazerfan

Oh for sure. My guess is 2-10 shooting, 6 points, 4 rebounds and 5 turnovers in 38 minutes.

 

[magnifier661]

Not against the Lakers. Batum, like Aldridge and Roy, have historically played the Fake Show with inspired basketball. I would add Wallace, but those days were when he was playing in Charlotte. Maybe that bleeds over tonight.

 

[HailBlazers]

Let's go Batman

[video=youtube;-jTHdRnE-xw]

 

[MickZagger]

^ That was awesome. Watched the whole thing and couldn't understand a word.

 

[HailBlazers]

^ That was awesome. Watched the whole thing and couldn't understand a word.

Riight?

wish there were subtitles though

 

[THE HCP]

Nic gets his 3rd big time dunk on Pau is all I'm predicting!

 

[jlprk]

Wow, I watched a couple of minutes and I'll get back to it to see the whole thing. I posted a picture of his mother a month ago and thought I'd accomplished something, but this has film of her talking. This is great.

 

[THE HCP]

Hey RoyToy...... is this whole "hate on Nic" a big game you are playing? Are you just bored? You can't have any type of grasp of knowledge of the game whatsoever if you can not recognize his abilities! The kid and I mean 23 year old kid has game and TONS of potential. I think Nate finally noticed nobody was giving him the ball when he was out there with bench guys and knew he had to get him some run with Camby and LA who know how to get him involved! If your just fucking around, haha...... if not, you have no credibility around here son!

Bump!

 

[illmatic99]

Shining on the big stage:

[video=youtube;v4GJ0m_5g7U]

 

[Nikolokolus]

I know the Lakers took their foot off the gas after they extended the lead to 30, but it was nice to see Nic fight through and step up in a hopeless situation and show some heart.

 

[illmatic99]

That spin move on DWade. Wow. Where did that come from?

[video=youtube;Q7Egk4Utfxw]

Frustrating as fuck though. He played the fewest minutes of any other starter and even Wessy played more than him.

 

[THE HCP]

Originally Posted by HCP
Hey RoyToy...... is this whole "hate on Nic" a big game you are playing? Are you just bored? You can't have any type of grasp of knowledge of the game whatsoever if you can not recognize his abilities! The kid and I mean 23 year old kid has game and TONS of potential. I think Nate finally noticed nobody was giving him the ball when he was out there with bench guys and knew he had to get him some run with Camby and LA who know how to get him involved! If your just fucking around, haha...... if not, you have no credibility around here son!


BUMP

 

[illmatic99]

[video=youtube;UTEQjxXFg3w]

 

[Boob-No-More]

Update:

Batum has moved into the top 20 (19th) in 3FG Made at 52.

He is currently 13th in the entire league in TS% (.598) and 15th in eFG% (.549).

He is 9th in the league in ORtg (116.5) and 12th in WS/48 (.199).

For the month of February, he is averaging 18.7 PPG in 33.4 MPG.

As a starter (small sample size), he is averaging 21.0 PPG, 6.2 RPG and 1.6 APG.

When he plays 40+ MPG, he averages 22.0 PPG, 7.0 RPG and 2.0 APG.

He also has as many BLK (13) and more STL (16) in 9 games in February than he did in 18 games in January.

BNM

Update:

Batum is 17th in the league in 3FG Made at 63.

He is currently 11th in the entire league in TS% (.599) and 11th in eFG% (.551).

He is 9th in the league in ORtg (116.1) and 16th in WS/48 (.190).

For the month of February (12 games), he averaged 17.8 PTS/G, 4.8 REB/G, 1.7 AST/G, 1.6 STL/G, 1.6 BLK/G, .485 FG% and .429 3FG% in 32.9 MPG.

For the month of March (2 games), he is averaging 23.0 PTS/G, 4.0 REB/G, 1.0 AST/G, 2.5 STL/G, 1.0 BLK/G, .536 FG% and .400 3FG% in 35.9 MPG.

As a starter (10 games), he is averaging 19.7 PPG, 5.8 RPG and 1.8 APG.

When he plays 40+ MPG (5 games), he averages 23.4 PPG, 6.2 RPG and 1.6 APG.

BNM

 

[B-Roy]

Batum's PER is over 20 for the first time in his career.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Batum's PER is over 20 for the first time in his career.

Yes, and he's 29th in the league in players that qualify in MPG.

If you expand that to include all players who have played at least 25 games at => 24.0 MPG, he's 31st.

So, that begs the question, where does Nic rank among players who play the same position(s)?

If you consider him a 3 (probably his best natural position), his PER ranks him 3rd behind LeBron James (33.2) and Kevin Durant (27.6) (the two highest qualifying PERs in the entire league). Granted, there is HUGE drop between Durant and Batum, but there is no other small forward in the league right now with a PER => 20. If you consider Gallinari a 3 (which is what he's playing in Denver), he's hot on Nic/s heals in both PER (19.9) and WS/48 (.190 for Nic, .187 for Gallinari), but he doesn't have enough minutes to officially qualify.

How Nic compares to other 3s with PER => 17.0:

LeBron James:
PER = 33.2
WS/48 = .345
WS = 9.3

Kevin Durant:
PER = 27.6
WS/48 = .247
WS = 7.3

Nicolas Batum (plays 2 and 3):
PER = 20.0
WS/48 = .190
WS = 3.9

Danilo Gallinari:
PER = 19.9
WS/48 = .187
WS = 3.2

Carmelo Anthony:
PER = 19.2
WS/48 = .124
WS = 2.3

Thaddeus Young (plays both 3 and 4):
PER = 19.5
WS/48 = .190
WS = 4.1

Paul Pierce:
PER = 18.7
WS/48 = .148
WS = 3.4

Andre Iguodala: (plays both 2 and 3)
PER = 18.0
WS/48 = .168
WS = 4.6

Danny Granger:
PER = 17.8
WS/48 = .148
WS = 3.4

Rudy Gay:
PER = 17.2
WS/48 = .105
WS = 3.1

If you consider Nic a 2, his PER ranks him 4th among shooting guards behind Dwyane Wade (28.6), Kobe Bryant (24.0) and James Harden (20.8).

How Nic compares to other 2s with PER => 17.0:

Dwayne Wade:
PER = 28.6
WS/48 = .260
WS = 4.7

Kobe Bryant:
PER = 24.0
WS/48 = .159
WS = 4.5

James Harden:
PER = 20.8
WS/48 = .228
WS = 5.4

Nicolas Batum (plays 2 and 3):
PER = 20.0
WS/48 = .190
WS = 3.9

Monta Ellis:
PER = 18.7
WS/48 = .067
WS = 1.7

Rodney Stuckey:
PER = 17.8
WS/48 = .123
WS = 2.6

Kevin Martin
PER = 17.6
WS/48 = .147
WS = 3.5

Jamal Crawford (plays 1 and 2):
PER = 17.2
WS/48 = .107
WS = 2.2

These advanced stats point out a number of things.

First, LeBron is having an absolutely incredible season, not just compared to his current peers, but historically. The all-time season record for PER is 31.84 by Wilt. Jordan's best was 31.71. LeBron is on pace to shatter that record. He's also on pace to break the single season record for WS/48. The current record is .3399 by Kareem. Of course, this is a lockout shortened season, and it is the REGULAR season. In order to claim one of the best seasons of all-time, LeBron and the Heat will need to win the championship.

Other than a few superstars like LeBron, Durant, Wade and Kobe, The PER rankings are dominated by big men (4/5s) and point guards.

The shooting guard position is incredibly weak once you get past the top 3 (Wade, Kobe and Harden). Iguodala is solid, but not spectacular.

In fact, after the top 2, the small forward position isn't all that great either. Guys like Melo and Rudy Gay aren't exactly having great seasons. The Knicks seem to play better without Anthony (which also shows up in his advanced stats) and Gay is an inefficient volume scorer.

When comparing the advanced stats, you could make an argument that Nic is the 6th best wing (2/3) in the entire league at the age of only 23. He's certainly in the top 10 wings in terms of his advanced stats. This is good for Nic, but potentially bad for the Blazers. With so many teams having cap space this summer, some GM will likely make Nic a huge offer based on his improved performance, still untapped potential and young age. He'll never be a superstar, like LeBron or Durant, but he has the potential to be one of the best number 2 options in the league. I think the Blazers are going to regret not locking him up long term when they had the chance. Best case, it costs them several million dollars over the life of his contract and a chunk of cap space that could have been used elsewhere. Worst case, it costs them their second best player that is young and still improving and could have been a major building block for their future. This is what happens when you have no GM and no one with a long term vision guiding this team.

BNM