Becoming a Lillard believer

[Rastapopoulos]

I have been a skeptic. I still am, to an extent, because he was overhyped and wasn't in the top 15 PGs by PER, and PER ignores defense, and his defense was bad. PLUS, he was old for a rookie, so you might expect his ceiling to be lower.

BUT: that was true of Brandon Roy, too. And Lillard has looked really good in preseason. And this is very encouraging indeed:

Stotts said Lillard has improved dramatically since last season, and the evidence was evident Friday night.

“Dame has made a very conscious decision to become, not just a better defender, but a good defender,” Stotts said. “And I think you can tell with his demeanor on the defensive end, how he’s pursuing plays, how he’s fighting over screens. I think his knowledge of the league is certainly getting better, but I think his approach to the defensive end is to be commended.”

Lillard’s greatest growth has come in transition defense and in his pursuit of the ball in half-court sets. As a point guard, Lillard will guard opposing ball-handlers more than anyone else, so he will encounter pick-and-rolls more than anyone else. But unlike last season, when he collided into that screen and gave up, Lillard is clawing and fighting to get through picks and chasing the ball after he escapes.

“He’s navigating the pick-and-rolls better, and on top of that, he’s pursuing after the pick-and-roll occurs, chasing his man,” Stotts said. “I think part of that is our changes in our coverages have kind of lent themselves to pursuing the ball, and I think … again, the experience has really helped.

Here's to a Brandon Roy-like sophomore season.

 

[Natebishop3]

I would like to see his assists increase this year, but I think with the addition of Mo Williams we might see Lillard at the two more, which would mean less assists.

 

[Natebishop3]

That article is a really good read btw.

 

[blazedanugz]

if I hear "old for a rookie" one more time my head is going to explode. key word ROOKIE. yeah 22 is real old......keep digging for bullshit.

 

[Natebishop3]

if I hear "old for a rookie" one more time my head is going to explode. key word ROOKIE. yeah 22 is real old......keep digging for bullshit.

It's because of all the 18 and 19 year olds that came out in the late 90's and early 2000's. Now, if you're 22, you're an old man. The prevailing thought is that you can't make a significant jump in skill if you're that old. Not sure why. Used to be that rookies were almost always 21 or 22 and they usually didn't even play much for a year or two.

 

[MickZagger]

22 used to be the average age of an NBA rookie. Its not a big deal.

 

[jlprk]

That article is a really good read btw.

Joe Freeman's good, but the Oregonian continues with Canzano as the star atop its Christmas tree.

 

[Natebishop3]

Joe Freeman's good, but the Oregonian continues with Canzano as the star atop its Christmas tree.

John Canzano is the guy who stands on the street in the chicken costume waiving a sign, hoping to bring you into the store.

 

[BLAZINGGIANTS]

Pretty sure Lillard is pretty damn good.

He's in my top-12 PG's without thinking about it, and after analyzing it, he's #7-9, in my book, everything considered. That's all that matters in my heart.

 

[Natebishop3]

Pretty sure Lillard is pretty damn good.

He's in my top-12 PG's without thinking about it, and after analyzing it, he's #7-9, in my book, everything considered. That's all that matters in my heart.

I just love his desire to improve. That's what will make him great.

 

[oldguy]

Unanimous ROY would seem to say the hype was merited. Damian played well, particularly given how many minutes he played. My only frustration was his D didn't seem to get much better as the season played out.

Coach says he's improved in that area. If his has, then we won't have to worry about Hickson Syndrome with Damian. If he keeps his numbers somewhere near last year's, even if a little lower, and plays decent D, I'm a happy fan.

I agree with Nb3 about Damian's desire to get better. It's what makes me believe he'll take the next step this season. I don't see any reason he shouldn't take 'next steps' for the next 2-3 years. He's got the physical skills. He's still a young guy. He has high BBIQ. He's a leader. He seems to *want it.*

If he was more like, say Rasheed; and just wanted to get by on his (substantial) natural gifts, DL might level off. But that doesn't seem to be the case, so why worry?

Go Blazers

 

[SlyPokerDog]

John Canzano is the guy who stands on the street in the chicken costume waiving a sign, hoping to bring you into the store.

Hahahahahahahaha!

Rep'd

 

[Natebishop3]

Hahahahahahahaha!

Rep'd

I will take all 7 of your sweet sweet rep points.

 

[BrianFromWA]

It's because of all the 18 and 19 year olds that came out in the late 90's and early 2000's. Now, if you're 22, you're an old man. The prevailing thought is that you can't make a significant jump in skill if you're that old. Not sure why. Used to be that rookies were almost always 21 or 22 and they usually didn't even play much for a year or two.

There are plenty of studies used by the statheads (and which confirm the "gut feel" of the older scouts/GMs) that show that the highs/lows (I think they're called 'betas') for younger players are much bigger than those who are closer to their prime by the time they hit the league. (And they now have almost 20 years of data from the KGs/Kobes/Ndudi Ebis of the world). Now, if you're not looking for lotto ticket jackpots, then guys like Lillard, Roy, Battier, etc. can do great things for you. But given a chance, many GMs will value (and therefore take a gamble on) the upside of Giannis Antekuompo over, say, the solidity of Rafael Araujo. Or take the Dwight Howards over the Emeka Okafors.

That's not saying that they're right, or that there can't be outliers, but it's a pretty well-grounded school of thought.

Personally, I don't go by the "where/how many drafted" stats of college seniors v. one-and-dones very much, because it's a self-selecting group, for the most part. It takes an extraordinary situation for players with a first-round grade to stay for 2 years, much less 4. (Look at how Marcus Smart was/is being second-guessed!) So guys like Jeff Withey stay 4 years because there's no way they'd have been drafted after 3 or 2, like Leonard was. That's not because they didn't have greater upside at 19 than 22, it's because they didn't have NBA-projectible skillset. And what isn't talked about is that, for every guy (once a year or so) like Lillard (and hopefully CJ) who stays 4 years and improves to become a great NBA player, there are a few guys like Withey who stay 4 years and may or may not cut it as an NBA player and 4000 guys who stay 4 years and don't get an invite to the Portsmouth game, much less the combine. That's two orders of magnitude higher than the 40 or so underclassmen who get drafted each year, and who may or may not pan out.

 

[jlprk]

Too poetic. Could you translate that prose into statistics equations so I can understand it?

 

[magnifier661]

I don't think we will have any problem with Lillard blossoming into a star. He's got the mindset, BBIQ and drive to get there. Nobody had to tell him to work on defense. He already knew he had to. That commitment is what sets apart the talent from the star.

Age doesn't become an issue in this regard. His body seems to hold up fine (knock on wood); which was much different than Roy (who started his rookie campaign already injured). I seem to look at health than age.

 

[illmatic99]

Only response to this is WTF took you so long?