Betting Odds Miller/Scoot at #2/#3

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SharpesTriumph

SharpesTriumph

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Here are current betonline.ag odds of who is drafted at #2 and #3. I feel like the betting sites are the most accurate predictor as its actually people and the house putting real money on the line. The reports in the media are so many smokescreens, teams, agents, etc with agendas that its very hard to know which if any of those have substance.

6/13 odds betonline.ag
#2 Brandon Miller -225 Scoot +175
#3 Scoot -225 Miller +165 Amen +900

So you have to bet 225 to win $100 that Miller will go #2, or if you bet $100 you will win $44.44. To bet Scoot at #2 you have to bet $100 to win $175. Thus Miller is a significant favorite to be drafted before Scoot at about 4x.

I posted odds about 1 and 2 weeks ago in some other threads, I'll look for those now. I'll aim to update this thread as we get closer to the draft.

Edit - additions to original post;

6/15 odds betonline.ag
#2 Brandon Miller -235 Scoot +140
#3 Scoot -200 Miller +170 Amen +1200
#4 Amen -135 Whitmore +160

6/18 edit see Tince post 39 minutes ago there was a big shift in odds and Scoot is now a slight favorite at #2
 
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5/30 odds

betonline.ag
#2 pick - Miller at -175 (more likely) Scoot +110
#3 pick - Scoot +100 (more likely) Miller +135 Amen +350

Draftkings similarly has Miller a bit higher than Scoot but not as significant.
#2 Miller -130 Scoot -110
#3 Scoot +105 Miller +110 Amen +500
 
5/25 odds draftkings
#2 Scoot -140 Brandon Miller +100 Amen +3000

5/25 odds fanduel
#2 Scoot -150 Brandon Miller -105 Amen +4500
 
So on 5/25 Scoot was the favorite at #2, by 5/30 it flipped to Miller as the favorite at #2, and today Miller is a much larger favorite to go at #2.
 
Thanks for putting this together. I think there is probably something to the idea that the Hornets really like Miller. This is a lot of incentive for people to bet on Miller going third and Scoot going second.
 
Yes the real question has always been what do we do with number 3 and scoot. The rumor mill is starting to heat up now that the championship is over for this year. Lets hope the Blazer organization finally makes some moves that make a difference rather than mediocrity.
 
I’m a little nervous that Cronin might jump on trade to soon. Sometimes/most of the time the best deals are the ones made at last minute.
 
1 Eye Jack said:
I’m a little nervous that Cronin might jump on trade to soon. Sometimes/most of the time the best deals are the ones made at last minute.
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You can probably stop worrying about Joe being trigger happy. Until Charlotte officially makes their pick other teams won't know who they are getting with pick 3. So Joe can have a deal lined up for if it's Scoot and one lined up if it's Miller but he won't be able to pull the trigger early which means other teams will be able to try and outbid whatever he might have in place for either player.
 
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Irish Trader said:
Yes the real question has always been what do we do with number 3 and scoot. The rumor mill is starting to heat up now that the championship is over for this year. Lets hope the Blazer organization finally makes some moves that make a difference rather than mediocrity.
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Yeah, I think the organization will first try to get an All NBA player such as Bridges or Brown. If those guys or other elite players are not available then its going to be hard to walk away from the talent of Scoot but it obviously is an odd fit with him and Damian not to mention Ant.

So if the Blazers trade #3 for an All NBA player we know they are going in to win it now. But I suspect if the team drafts a player at #3 such as Scoot, we still may not have clarity for a number of weeks what direction the Blazers will go next season. They could still try to move Scoot when free agency hits and more all-NBA players are available in trade which is beginning to mid July. If after many weeks they can't find the veterans they want, maybe they even explore trading Dame.

I think if we have Scoot Thursday when the draft is done it doesn't mean we are keeping him as is normally the case for draft picks. Its very rare to have a team so high in the lottery with so much uncertainty of what direction and timeline they are going with. If we do end up drafting Scoot, I'll be looking at Cronin comments more closely then I think I ever have of a GM at the draft. Will know a lot by what he says or doesn't say.
 
SharpesTriumph said:
Yeah, I think the organization will first try to get an All NBA player such as Bridges or Brown. If those guys or other elite players are not available then its going to be hard to walk away from the talent of Scoot but it obviously is an odd fit with him and Damian not to mention Ant.

So if the Blazers trade #3 for an All NBA player we know they are going in to win it now. But I suspect if the team drafts a player at #3 such as Scoot, we still may not have clarity for a number of weeks what direction the Blazers will go next season. They could still try to move Scoot when free agency hits and more all-NBA players are available in trade which is beginning to mid July. If after many weeks they can't find the veterans they want, maybe they even explore trading Dame.

I think if we have Scoot Thursday when the draft is done it doesn't mean we are keeping him as is normally the case for draft picks. Its very rare to have a team so high in the lottery with so much uncertainty of what direction and timeline they are going with. If we do end up drafting Scoot, I'll be looking at Cronin comments more closely then I think I ever have of a GM at the draft. Will no a lot by what he says or doesn't say.
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Bridges hasn't even ever been an all star and got only two third team votes out of the 100 voters for All NBA. The dude was NBA all defensive first team a year ago and that's great and he did finish off this season showing a lot on a team that was under .500 while he was their best player. Brown and Bridges shouldn't be in that first sentence together... I think they're worlds apart in both accomplishments and how effective they project to be going forward.
 
SharpesTriumph said:
So on 5/25 Scoot was the favorite at #2, by 5/30 it flipped to Miller as the favorite at #2, and today Miller is a much larger favorite to go at #2.
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Coincided with Givonys appearence on the Woj pod where he dropped the Miller @2 idea.
 
blazerkor said:
You can probably stop worrying about Joe being trigger happy. Until Charlotte officially makes their pick other teams won't know who they are getting with pick 3. So Joe can have a deal lined up for if it's Scoot and one lined up if it's Miller but he won't be able to pull the trigger early which means other teams will be able to try and outbid whatever he might have in place for either player.
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Good point thanks I feel better
 
blazerkor said:
Bridges hasn't even ever been an all star and got only two third team votes out of the 100 voters for All NBA. The dude was NBA all defensive first team a year ago and that's great and he did finish off this season showing a lot on a team that was under .500 while he was their best player. Brown and Bridges shouldn't be in that first sentence together... I think they're worlds apart in both accomplishments and how effective they project to be going forward.
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I like Brown but not completely sold on him. Last two years he’s struggled in big games and becomes very turnover prone. Again not a huge knock but I would take Bridges over out of personal preference. Plus isn’t his contract friendlier?
 
Love this... let's get it in chart form to see the movement over time!
 
Forget Scoot and Miller. Anyone see that Watford workout video. Dudes game is looking smooth.
 
I think Portland already has an agreement with Hornets to trade up, to guarantee a player, that they also plan on involving, in a block buster for a star or several players that gives us immediate Defense, depth Post play and picks.
 
SharpesTriumph said:
Here are current betonline.ag odds of who is drafted at #2 and #3. I feel like the betting sites are the most accurate predictor as its actually people and the house putting real money on the line. The reports in the media are so many smokescreens, teams, agents, etc with agendas that its very hard to know which if any of those have substance.

6/13 odds betonline.ag
#2 Brandon Miller -225 Scoot +175
#3 Scoot -225 Miller +165 Amen +900

So you have to bet 225 to win $100 that Miller will go #2, or if you bet $100 you will win $44.44. To bet Scoot at #2 you have to bet $100 to win $175. Thus Miller is a significant favorite to be drafted before Scoot at about 4x.

I posted odds about 1 and 2 weeks ago in some other threads, I'll look for those now. I'll aim to update this thread as we get closer to the draft.
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NO entering the picture has def. Added a new twist to this.
Personally. I would prefer to just draft miller as i believe him and Sharpe could be a great foundation for the future. However up until now, Charlotte has been high on him.
However if NO and Charlette come to terms on a zion for #2 pick, NO will be taking scoot to pair with cj and ingram(good foundation) and charlotte gets zion to go with Lamar and fultz.

then we could use Ant and the 23 to beef up another area.

honestly long term, i think this is the best route for the Blazers. AND i think Dame will stay to see how it pans out.

Dame
Sharpe
Miller
Grant


I think thats a great mix of potential win now with the right moves for ant/picks/nurk

and a good core for the future.

i think id rather take a chance on miller for nothing over zion at cost.

can we move Ant/23 for ddr and free up our futures?

Ant for OG and a pick?

last question.
How many of you are going to go crazy like me over the next week????
Man its hard to focus on anything else right now. Lol.
 
BlazerBender said:
NO entering the picture has def. Added a new twist to this.
Personally. I would prefer to just draft miller as i believe him and Sharpe could be a great foundation for the future. However up until now, Charlotte has been high on him.
However if NO and Charlette come to terms on a zion for #2 pick, NO will be taking scoot to pair with cj and ingram(good foundation) and charlotte gets zion to go with Lamar and fultz.

then we could use Ant and the 23 to beef up another area.

honestly long term, i think this is the best route for the Blazers. AND i think Dame will stay to see how it pans out.

Dame
Sharpe
Miller
Grant


I think thats a great mix of potential win now with the right moves for ant/picks/nurk

and a good core for the future.

i think id rather take a chance on miller for nothing over zion at cost.

can we move Ant/23 for ddr and free up our futures?

Ant for OG and a pick?

last question.
How many of you are going to go crazy like me over the next week????
Man its hard to focus on anything else right now. Lol.
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Yeah I like the idea of drafting Miller, but in that case I want to keep Ant. Yes were still doing the two timelines thing - but I think thats much better than making a bad all in move now. I find it highly unlikely we can be a contender this summer, so we shouldn't send out one of our top3 young assets in Ant to do that. Acquiring DDR is a great possibility IMO as it gives Dame a win now player but likely doesn't cost the #3 pick. So we can draft #3, keep Ant/Sharpe, but still give Dame a team USA veteran trio. I'd send out Nurk plus picks and use the MLE on a center such as Naz Reid as well as get another vet minimum backup C

Dame Ant
Sharpe Thybulle
DDR Miller
Grant Watford
Reid VetMin Eubanks

Yeah I know many don't like the DameAnt duo. I like the flexibility with more youth of that first group as well as I'm much higher on Ant than others. But eventually yes this group probably needs more follow up moves.

Lets say instead of DDR the Blazers acquire OG for 23 and Ant

Dame Mays
Sharpe Thybulle
OG Miller
Grant Watford
Nurk Reid Eubanks

That second team makes more sense as an end product to win as is. I'm concerned of OG injuries, the Blazers needing to pivot and trade Dame anyways in 6-12 months, and Ant becoming the scoring champ elsewhere.
 
Would you give up our second round pick along with 3, to trade up to #2, to guarantee our path?
 
Hoopguru said:
I think Portland already has an agreement with Hornets to trade up, to guarantee a player, that they also plan on involving, in a block buster for a star or several players that gives us immediate Defense, depth Post play and picks.
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Based off what?
 
If the Hornets accepted a small incentive for us to change picks, that probably means they have no interest in Scoot or any trade that might involve Scoot. Which means we probably don't need to do it. However I would certainly do it, I just don't think Charlotte would before draft day.
 
Pinwheel1 said:
If the Hornets accepted a small incentive for us to change picks, that probably means they have no interest in Scoot or any trade that might involve Scoot. Which means we probably don't need to do it. However I would certainly do it, I just don't think Charlotte would before draft day.
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Disagree. How would Charlotte know we or a team we trade with doesn't prefer Miller?

I would think if Charlotte accepts a trade for as you say a small incentive then they are nearly undecided on Scoot vs Miller and would be happy with either one, but want to draft one of them vs trading the pick.
 
SharpesTriumph said:
Disagree. How would Charlotte know we or a team we trade with doesn't prefer Miller?

I would think if Charlotte accepts a trade for as you say a small incentive then they are nearly undecided on Scoot vs Miller and would be happy with either one.
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Well, that is possible. But based on the "rumors" everything points to Scoot being the prize in trades The incentive would at the very least have to be #23 unless they don't care who they end up with. But to your point, if NO comes back and says Zion is off the table, then you could be right.
 
Hoopguru said:
Just a gut feeling because I think they want Miller. Kup showed his cards imo about drafting for fit?
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Why would the Blazers trade up if Kup showed his cards that they're picking Miller?
 
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