Betting Odds Miller/Scoot at #2/#3

[SharpesTriumph]

FG%: Amen .544....Scoot .390
2ptFG%: Amen .610....Scoot .425
3ptFG%: Amen .190....Scoot .320
eFG%: Amen .557....Scoot .444
TS%: Amen .588....Scoot .493
FG% at rim: Amen .731....Scoot .515

PER: Amen 17.8....Scoot 10.1
winshares/48: Amen .157....Scoot -0.033
BPM: Amen +2.2....Scoot -5.3
VORP: Amen +2.4....Scoot -2.0

sure looks like Amen crushes Scoot as a shooter in every stat category except 3's. Even accounting for Scoot's advantage in three's, the gulf between the two in shooting efficiency is huge. I doubt shooting three's will never be a strength or much of a positive factor for Scoot.

by the way, Amen is a much better rebounder than either Deni or Camara. Now, the issue would be Amen + Camara + Avdija as a wing rotation. That's probably too much redundancy and not nearly enough elite offense

If Deni and Camara are hitting threes as they have for stretches that's potentially an awesome wing rotation. I don't see the problem. If we had that for the DameCJ era along with many of our solid centers it might have been a dark horse contender. Or at least a minor move away from a contender.

We made the WCF with Aminu Harkless Turner.

Deni Camara Amen potentially blows that away.

 

[Pinwheel1]

I'd certainly rather have Amen over Camara, not sure why you think we're better off with Camara. Sure his 3pt shooting is better today but it's not like we're getting ready for a playoff push or care about wins or anything. Amen has the upside we were hoping Scoot would have.

I really like Camara, but he's just a clear role player - a tiny bit better version of Thybulle.

I acknowledged that Amen is a better player than Tou and that if/when he develops a 3-point shot, he will have all-star potential. But if he doesn't he might just end up being a role-player like Camara. not the same type of role-player, but a role-player nonetheless.

And again like I previously said it also comes down to who else each of them plays next to to determine who is more effective. (if both remain role players)

However, I agree that Amen will most likely improve his outside shooting. He will be 22 this month.
(Scoot will be 21 four days later and will also eventually improve his shot)

 

[Sheldon Shape]

What's that got to do with anything?

In regards of who we should have drafted.

 

[wizenheimer]

If Deni and Camara are hitting threes as they have for stretches that's potentially an awesome wing rotation. I don't see the problem. If we had that for the DameCJ era along with many of our solid centers it might have been a dark horse contender. Or at least a minor move away from a contender.

We made the WCF with Aminu Harkless Turner.

Deni Camara Amen potentially blows that away.

I don't agree, at least not on a practical level. Blazers absolutely need at least one elite 2-way player to contend, but likely need two. Assuming a role player at C since a Jokic or Embiid are so rare, that forces the Blazers to find two perennial all-star level players at SG and PG. And they very likely don't even have one yet. Avdija/Camara/Amen forecloses on adding one of those elite players at wing/forward. And one would be a bench player unless you want to start all three; and I'm assuming Clingan st C. Which would just make the missing elite-player-problem harder to solve.

player X
Amen
Camara
Avdija
Clingan

not a chance with that lineup, IMO, because of the low offensive ceiling. And there are no players besides the unknown X who can consistently create their own offense

 

[julius]

In regards of who we should have drafted.

Yeah, so his trade value is higher? That doesn't seem to be a good use of a draft pick.

 

[Sheldon Shape]

Yeah, so his trade value is higher? That doesn't seem to be a good use of a draft pick.

I'm not suggesting we should have drafted him, but I'm saying you could definitely make that case as we're looking at it now. He's far ahead of Scoot at this time. That doesn't mean Scoot can't be better. If we would have drafted Amen, we probably wouldn't have traded for Deni.

 

[HailBlazers]

I'm sorry, but Tou is not a better player than Amen. And I love Tou. Deni and Amen are very similar in what they do for their teams.

Yes he is. Shut down Dame time tonight.

 

[bemac]

I take Tou every day of the week. He is a few percentage points away on his 3point shot to becoming great. Y'all are way underestimating the value of BBIQ, heart and leadership

 

[SharpesTriumph]

I don't agree, at least not on a practical level. Blazers absolutely need at least one elite 2-way player to contend, but likely need two. Assuming a role player at C since a Jokic or Embiid are so rare, that forces the Blazers to find two perennial all-star level players at SG and PG. And they very likely don't even have one yet. Avdija/Camara/Amen forecloses on adding one of those elite players at wing/forward. And one would be a bench player unless you want to start all three; and I'm assuming Clingan st C. Which would just make the missing elite-player-problem harder to solve.

player X
Amen
Camara
Avdija
Clingan

not a chance with that lineup, IMO, because of the low offensive ceiling. And there are no players besides the unknown X who can consistently create their own offense

Fox
Amen
Flagg Camara
Deni
Sabonis Clingan

Looks like a contending rotation to me.

 

[wizenheimer]

Fox
Amen
Flagg Camara
Deni
Sabonis Clingan

Looks like a contending rotation to me.

lol....wut?

 

[SharpesTriumph]

lol....wut?

My point was Amen Camara Deni can possibly be part of a great wing rotation with the right teammates as we never had in the DameCJ era. No they can't be the primary stars, but get a couple stars in that rotation (none of those names are MVPs) and it might work out great.

I'd much rather have Amen on this roster over Scoot and that was apparent a few games into their NBA careers.

 

[wizenheimer]

My point was Amen Camara Deni can possibly be part of a great wing rotation with the right teammates as we never had in the DameCJ era. No they can't be the primary stars, but get a couple stars in that rotation (none of those names are MVPs) and it might work out great.

I'd much rather have Amen on this roster over Scoot and that was apparent a few games into their NBA careers.

I'm not arguing with the Amen over Scoot narrative. Amen is obviously a more impactful player right now

I'm just saying that Avdija/Camara/Amen is a crowd of wings that take a lot of air out of the room needed to add a couple of elite players. Could the trio possibly work on a contender? Maybe; but the circumstances needed to make it work just don't seem practical to me.

personally, and I know I'm going against the pro-Avdija sentiment around here right now, but if the Blazers had drafted Amen to go with Camara, they'd have probably been better off not making the Avdija trade. Or, at minimum placing lottery protection on that 2029 first they have to send

 

[blazerfan11]

Brandon Miller kind of sucks as as a high-percentage scorer this season. Which I believe was the main reason he was drafted at #2 , his scoring was expected to be much better than others in the class.
Here's where his True Shooting would fit in the Trail Blazers roster.
Right around "bad" Jeremi Grant scoring-wise, which I pasted over with his numbers.
Yes, Brandon Miller does other things besides score, but this is the #2 pick. His scoring is what justified where he was drafted.

 

[B-Roy]

 

[wizenheimer]

Amen is turning into Josh Hart on steroids

 

[Cugel]

So....6 good games as a starter and you are a shoe in for an all-star?
12-7-2 55% from the field and 26 % from 3. In last 10 games 16.7 % from 3. Scoot blows him out of the water from 3. now that is poor shooting.
1.1 blocks per game. (The same as SGA, renowned shot blocker)

 

[Quatro44]

Honestly the better debate could be Miller vs Amen. The Hornets could use Amen’s skills. They need a rebounder/defender for a wing to pair with Bridges.

 

[wizenheimer]

So....6 good games as a starter and you are a shoe in for an all-star?
12-7-2 55% from the field and 26 % from 3. In last 10 games 16.7 % from 3. Scoot blows him out of the water from 3. now that is poor shooting.
1.1 blocks per game. (The same as SGA, renowned shot blocker)

the guaranteed all-star label was over the top. He might get there, but there are valid reasons to be skeptical

Amen's 3 point percentage seems pretty irrelevant at this point. He's played in 95 NBA games and only shot 103 three's. Saying that Scoot "blows Amen out of the water in three's" doesn't mean much considering Amens only shoots a smidge more than one a game, and Scoot only shoots a pretty dismal 31% on three's this season, but guns up 3.4 a game and 4.8 per36. Those are chucker numbers

in fact, the reality is Amen "blows Scoot out of the water in every single shooting stat besides three's". Comparing what they are doing this season:

FG%: Amen .558.....Scoot .407
2ptFG%: Amen .617.....Scoot .449
eFG%: Amen .577.....Scoot .462
TS%: Amen .606.....Scoot .509
FG% at rim: Amen ..736.....Scoot .516
FT Rate: Amen .393.....Scoot .300

PER: Amen 17.6.....Scoot 11.7
winshares/48: Amen .164.....Scoot .006
BPM: Amen +2.5.....Scoot -3.7

Scoot has better passing numbers, but he's a PG; Amen has better rebounding numbers, but he's a forward. it's worth noting that Amen's rebounding rate(s) have been bettrer than Josh Hart, Avdija, and Camara. Amen is also an excellent defender; Scoot is not, by a long shot

 

[Pinwheel1]

Amen's 3 point percentage seems pretty irrelevant at this point. He's played in 95 NBA games and only shot 103 three's. Saying that Scoot "blows Amen out of the water in three's" doesn't mean much considering Amens only shoots a smidge more than one a game, and Scoot only shoots a pretty dismal 31% on three's this season, but guns up 3.4 a game and 4.8 per36. Those are chucker numberrs

It's more than just 3 pt shooting though. Yes, Amen is phenomenal around the basket, but anything past 10 feet he is "currently" struggling, and in the playoffs that could be a problem.

This year
10-16 feet Scoot 55% Amen 36%
16- 3PT. Scoot 43%. Amen 37%
3 PT. Scoot 31% Amen 24%

 

[wizenheimer]

It's more than just 3 pt shooting though. Yes, Amen is phenomenal around the basket, but anything past 10 feet he is "currently" struggling, and in the playoffs that could be a problem.

This year
10-16 feet Scoot 55% Amen 36%
16- 3PT. Scoot 43%. Amen 37%
3 PT. Scoot 31% Amen 24%

I don't pay much attention to those shots in the 10'-3pt zone. Those are only 14% of Amen's shots. Most players don't shoot at a high rate in those zones

I notice you left out the 3-10' zone. That's 28.4% of Amen's shots and he's converting at a .506 rate. Scoot takes 18% of his shots in that zone and is converting at a pretty pathetic .255 rate. 74% of Amen's shots come within 10' of the basket and he's pretty elite at converting. This season, he's converting 78% of his shots at the rim

and yes, Amen might encounter more resistance in the playoffs. But he will get get the opportunity to face it this spring

I'd agree that Amen's perimeter shooting might place a lower ceiling on his upside, but that sure isn't a strangth of Scoot's yet