Dan Marang
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**First a quick note: Thank you everyone for the feedback regarding the post and the podcast last week! It was a blast to put it together and I look forward to continuing this into the future! For Week 2- I decided to dive into everyone's favorite.. Meyers Leonard. Again, please send your feedback my way- thanks again! **
Meyers Leonard. Love him. Hate him. Love-hate him. Hate-love him. Frenemy. Unicorn. These are just a few things I’ve seen or heard when Meyers Leonard’s name comes up. I don’t think it’s any kind of stretch to call Leonard the most polarizing player on the roster.
Last week I profiled Mason Plumlee, and while there were some things in there a few disagreed with, for the most part- it was accepted that Plumlee is who is he is. While there’s certainly room for growth and improvement, you don’t anticipate or expect him to suddenly become a dominant player. Ed Davis, Easy Ed, is a player that is quickly becoming some what of a Blazers folk hero. Much like the big men that came before him- Joel Pryzbilla, Brian Grant, Jerome Kersey, and countless others- Davis shows up night in and night out, and as a fan you don’t suddenly expect him to go off for 20 and 10. Is he capable of having a night like that once or twice a season? Sure. This is the NBA. Home of the most dynamic athletes in the world. But my point here is that while those nights are fun to enjoy you don’t expect them, but rather appreciate them when they appear. My belief is that unlike Ed Davis, Mason Plumlee, or to an extent Noah Vonleh- where you know what kind of player they are and what they bring to the table on a nightly basis, Meyers is a bit of a wildcard- to say the least. If you asked 10 Trailblazer fans to describe Meyers, you’re likely to get 10 different answers. Some good, some great, some bad- some, inevitably, not very flattering as well. What you will find however is that there is no consensus. Much like the political battlefields of the upcoming election- each side sees their view as the most obvious perspective, where lines are dug deeply into the sand, even the proverbial mud slinging takes place from time to time across the forums that support the scarlet, silver, and black. The only certainty, is that who or what Leonard is today – in the scheme of an NBA player- or could be tomorrow, is totally uncertain.
A lot of people have an opinion on the 23-year-old and most of those opinions probably match the previously stated views. Instead of going through each of those opinions I’ll opt instead to analyze Leonard through the prism of statistics, analytics, and video evidence- but first let’s go back to the beginning to track his evolution. Coming out of the University of Illinois, Meyers was a project big with- hopefully- the ability to be the coveted CotF (center of the future) If you back and look at his final year in college, the was definitely reason to believe that it was possible that Leonard had the potential to be a legitimate NBA big- he’s a 18th all time in rebounding percentage for the Big Ten (14.7%) and 16th all time in block percentage (6.5%) In conference play the 2nd year big averaged 13/8/2, shooting 55% from the field and respectable 73% from the line. If you were to put those numbers up for any sophomore starting center in the Power 5 conferences, I think every NBA scout would take notice. His starts are remarkably similar to fellow 7 footer Nikola Vucevic’s sophomore year. Leonard’s first couple years in the NBA were a feeling out process- one that fluctuated from promising to down right unwatchable at times. Even the most casual of fans could see the proverbial “deer in the headlights” look that Leonard flashed on more than one occasion per game. Clearly the speed of the game was more than a bit too fast for him at times. However, the casual fan could see that when that light came on it could be quite bright. The Trailblazer fans inside the Moda Center have been known to appreciate the little things better than a lot of crowds- the intelligentsia of the NBA world as it were- and they showed it whenever Leonard made a play that showed growth, yet were patient when he made a face palm inducing mistake. That is until they started becoming more and more frequent. By his 3rd year in Portland, Leonard had worked himself into Coach Terry Stotts’ doghouse, then came word from Leonard that he’d spent his summer working on…hitting 3’s? In his first 2 years Leonard was 3 for 13, 23%- in college he went 1 for 12, so we’re not talking about a guy who’s used to stretching the floor. Predictably, the reaction was a backhanded “good for you” type reception, but to Leonard’s credit he came out and showed it wasn’t a joke. Leonard’s per 36 numbers in 2014-15; nearly 14 and 11 while putting up 51fg%, 42% 3pt, 94%FT, otherwise known as the 50/40/90 club, were a more than a bit surprising to some. While Meyers continued to have some more of the same “doh!” moments he’s had in the past few years, something else also happened… he started to play basketball. I know that sounds corny, but what he was doing before could easily be confused for a Benny Hill sketch as it could for NBA level basketball (confused on your own dunk isn’t a good look…)
Back to the whole “playing basketball” thing- if you go back and look at the 14-15 opponent field goal percentages, some interesting numbers start to pop up. Among players who faced at least 6 shots per game inside 5 feet- Leonard hard the 3rd best defensive field goal percentage. Third best. One. Two. Third. ( ) For another perspective I went to the trusty folks at NylonCalculus who conveniently have rim protection data from 14-15, and when you check for Meyers he pops up 5th best. That’s behind Rudy Gobert, Serge Ibaka, Andrew Bogut, and in front of Roy Hibbert. If we’re talking rim protection, that’s pretty much the crème de la crème of paint patrol. Now for sanity’s sake I checked his points saved (adj) per 36 and found that, while not in the uber elite company of the Stifle Tower he was still in the top 20%. While Leonard may not be a rim protector in the same sense a Gobert, Ibaka, or DeAndre Jordan are- sending shots into the 67th row on the regular- he is very good at two things in particular. One, being vertical- a learned behavior that he seems to have picked up from his time with Robin Lopez and Joel Freeland- both renowned for their ability to avoid bringing their arms down- but instead getting as long as possible and denying easy shots. When you accompany that with Leonard’s other good thing – being really big, you begin to see how he could be a solid rim protector. Leonard is a legitimate 7 footer with a 7’3” wingspan and a build that takes up more space than a phone booth has to offer. Seriously, picture that guy in a phone booth… now imagine trying to shoot over that with your face pressed up against the glass from the outside. You being to see how difficult he could make it for someone to score over him effectively and efficiently. If you require a third reference for his impact around the rim, take a look here- nestled in between Roy Hibbert and Andrew Bogut yet again, the young Meyers Leonard.
While no one will confuse Leonard for Charles Barkley (for many reasons) when it comes to rebounding Leonard can at least hold his own. Leonard doesn’t often go after offensive rebounds. Let me rephrase that, last year he didn’t go after offensive rebounds all that much- on par with Aldridge but half as often as either Lopez or Joel Freeland. By every metric he’s a run of the mill average rebounder on the offensive end. On the defensive side of things, last year Leonard was about on par with LaMarcus Aldridge, gobbling up nearly a quarter of the defensive boards when he was on the court, and chasing nearly 40% of the time. (For a deeper look on the spatial mapping of rebounding in the NBA I highly recommend this article here by Kirk Goldsberry.)
Now that we’ve covered the past lets’ get into this year- in fact let’s do a little scene setting; LaMarcus Aldridge, Robin Lopez, Wesley Matthews, and Nicolas Batum have all left the team in one facet of another, Meyers is fresh off a full display of OMG MEYERS!?!? in the first round of the playoffs when Portland was out of answers for the Memphis Grizzlies, Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum and Meyers Leonard are packaged up as the building blocks of the franchise- marketed as a very good and exciting young core that will be the foundation of the Blazers going forward. One minor note here that no one seemed to catch on to- Leonard will now be playing the role of power forward. So let’s analyze this for a second- a player that was drafted to be a rim protecting/rebounding, traditional big- a guy that’s 7’1” and 260lbs, has developed a 3 point shot, showed up on the bright lights of the playoffs against one of the premier centers in the league, demonstrated an ability to be a very solid paint protector…is moving out to the perimeter to guard stretch 4s?
The Blazers started their season off with a bang, a rousing 18-point win over a the 2014-15 playoff bound New Orleans Pelicans. Meyers acquitted himself nicely in his season and career debut at the 4- 12 points, 8 rebounds, and a sub par 2 for 7 from 3. But he had passed the opening test, so that little bit could be swept under the rug. Then came a home and home vs the Phoenix Suns. As good as Portland looked against the Pelicans- they looked equally if not worse against the Suns. No one epitomized that more so than Leonard, who in 17 minutes of action went 0 for 5 with 3 rebounds and 5 fouls. Queue the sad trombone sounds effects. In terms of terrible basketball it wasn’t quite a trillion, but it was pretty close. Besides his awful night from the field, he did nearly everything he could to kick start the Suns offense in the early going. He was constantly late on pick and roll coverage, prone to fouling, and seemingly lost every time down the court. Some up, some down, you expect a young player to have a rough night from time to time, and after all this is a rebuild year. Halloween night was, well a house of horrors for Leonard. In another schlacking Leonard put up 9 points and a single rebound in over 30 minutes of action. And for the 2nd night in a row he couldn’t find the distance from 3-point range, going 0 for 4- back to back games without hitting a 3 and now 2 for 11 on the season. The next 2 games, while victories over the Timberwolves and Jazz respectively bring the Blazers record to 3-2 on the young season, Leonard combines for 2 for 9, 6 points and 7 rebounds total in both games and 0 for 5 from 3. In a game that the Blazers won by 16 Meyers is a -1 +/- in just under 12 minutes of action. Then, the Memphis game. Leonard v. Gasol III is on the docket and a chance for early season redemption is within reach. The young man doesn’t disappoint- 5 for 7, 14 points and 5 rebounds in a 16-point rout of the Grizzlies. To drive home, the point, all world center Marc Gasol goes 4 for 13 and a game worst -21.
These games were followed up by very solid performances from Leonard- but bad losses for the Blazers against the Pistons and Nuggets in which he averaged 14 and 6. Then came the game vs the Spurs and a scary moment- in a play reminiscent of the Kevin Love/Kelly Olynk play from last season, Leonard got tangled up and after a quick yank on his arm he was in what appears to be pretty serious pain. The diagnosis? Separated shoulder. Typically, this is an injury where the timetable for return isn’t a matter of days but weeks – take a look a Joakim Noah who’s been ruled out for 4-6 months after his latest injury. Meyers misses 2 weeks and 7 games. Leonard returns to mixed reviews against the Lakers and Clippers, playing a supporting role in both games but not really impacting either in any way. The Dallas game on December 1st has been Leonard’s best statistical game of the season- 23 points, 7 rebounds and 4 made 3’s in a game that came down to the wire. It appeared as though Leonard had gotten rid of any cob webs associated with missed time. Then reality set in. From December 7th to the 21st Leonard went 3 from 25 from 3, never scored more than 8 points, and pulled down more then 6 rebounds 3 times.
In that game span the forums weren’t exactly kind to Leonard. Soft. Overrated. Trade bait. Wasted talent. I’m sure someone probably made fun of his dog too, it s the internet after all. The basketball stuff wasn’t exactly wrong though. His offensive skillset, the ability to knock down shots disappeared. He was constantly late rotating and/or closing out on players at the perimeter and he often found himself in between a play, unsure of whether to close out or deny the drive- more often than not making the incorrect read. Something has since clicked for the 23-year-old. He’s gone from shooting under 24% from 3 (10/30-12/21) to over 49% from 3, on over 4 attempts per game (12-22-current) bringing him up to a respectable 34% on the season. Averaging over 10 points and 5 rebounds in 23 minutes a game- he’s also carrying the largest +/- in that span. Offensively it appears that Leonard has found his stride lately, and an uptick in performance is probably exactly what he needs. Currently Leonard is playing right around 24 minutes a game, and sports a usage rate of 17% (Plumlee has a higher usage rate than Leonard, albeit slight)- it’s not out of this world to expect that if his usage rate and/or minutes went up that he could bump those averages to 14 points and 7 rebounds per game. Offensively, Leonard isn’t just limited to the 3 point shot- if you take a look at Leonard’s shot chart for his career, most of you will probably be left scratching their heads.
What you find here is a player that is not only efficient but good from nearly everywhere on the floor throughout his career. Take the game against the 76ers (yeah, I don’t really want to recall that one either…but….) When a team sags into the paint continually on every single pick and roll that involves Plumlee, the obvious counter to that is running a side PnR with a player that can extend the defense and prevent them from sagging back into the paint. Or, if they do sag back in, make them pay for doing so by continually knocking down jumpers from the elbow. It’s glimpses of brilliance like this that I think cause so much polarization anytime Leonard is brought up. Clearly, he’s the only player on the Blazers roster who has demonstrated the skills necessary to be very good in the pick and roll, pick and pop, drive and kick, and to a crazy extent the post up game. I know this seems a bit off the rails here, but hear me out. It’s a VERY small sample but it’s something I’ve kept my eye on this season. Leonard does not have magnificent footwork, that much is clear. However robotically he may back into the paint, something happens between that point and when he makes a move to the rim. Nearly every time he’s been in position to score off a back down, the big fella has delivered. Ed Davis and Leonard are two of the most reliable paint finishers on the team- Davis doing most of his work on put backs or rim runs, while Leonard picks up a post up possession about once per game. It’s nothing to get crazy excited about by any means, but it only adds fuel to the fire when you talk about Leonard. There’s these moments that you leave you wanting more, yet the consistency on the offensive end has yet to really manifest itself.
Now that we’ve delved into the world of offense, lets take a look at the other side of the ball. If you look at Leonard’s DFG% this season, among players 6’10” or taller he’s 81st of 88. His contested FG% is amongst defensive luminaries such as Frank Kaminsky and Robert Sacre- allowing opponents to convert on over 53% of shots that he contests. Pretty much every defensive number is down across the board, if you take a look at Leonard in pick and roll coverage on the roll man, he’s one of the worst among bigs who’ve been put in that situation 30 times. Granted it’s a very small sample size, but if I’m going to criticize Plumlee, I have to do just the same to Leonard in this circumstance. When you take a look at Leonard’s highest percentage of defensive possessions, it’s nowhere near the rim, but instead in the catch and shoot. While he’s not a defensive stalwart here, he’s also not the sieve some claim him to be. Allowing just under 1 point per possession in catch and shoot situations, (accounting for 25% of his defensive plays) he’s sandwiched in between Jae Crowder and Victor Oladipo, and on par with Draymond Green and Chris Bosh. That’s pretty decent company, especially so considering you’re asking a man who’s been in the paint his entire life to chase guys around the 3-point line. One place where Leonard has been steady over the past few years is actually in the paint. His post up defense rates solidly. Considering the earlier discussed phone booth metaphor, it makes sense that if Leonard is able to keep his man in space that he can alter a shot just with his size. My take on Leonard’s defensive impact overall- if you’re asking him to come out and chase smaller, more athletic players out around the 3-point line and then asking him to recover off of a stretched pick and roll, you’re not going to get the best results. Conversely, if you have him anchor the paint and funnel traffic to him in a compact space, he’s shown that he can bother shots well enough to make them a lower percentage. Also, he can more than handle himself in single coverage on the block, which is more than can be said about any other Blazers big at this time.
Now, why don’t we discuss rebounding. Leonard now contests less defensive rebounds while on the court than either Maurice Harkless or Al-Farouq Aminu. While he is contesting less, his success rate is near 50%, but when you’re contesting less than 10% of the time how great of an achievement is that really? At that point the vast majority of your rebounds are falling into your hands, uncontested. Much like my earlier statement about Leonard chasing smaller players around the 3-point line probably isn’t conducive to a sound defensive scheme, the same can be said about having Meyers out at the 3-point line to rebound. While he’s not Dennis Rodman, when he’s been at the center position he’s been able to rebound at a rate that’s commensurate with last year- in fact if you take a look at Portland’s top 7 defensive rebounding lineups, 5 of them have Leonard in them. Considering that by every metric, Ed Davis is a sub par to average defensive rebounder, it’s fair to say that Leonard is having a positive effect on that end of the floor rebounding the ball. The one thing you’ll probably notice within those lineups is that Leonard is playing his more natural (in my opinion) position- at the center and deeper in the paint.
Last week I mentioned how I thought that Plumlee, while not spectacular has a role on this team going forward. That role, a bench big who can use his athleticism, hustle, and playmaking skills to help facilitate the offense and spark the defense for 20 minutes a night would be fantastic. However, due to managing the bigger picture I feel like Coach Stotts has sacrificed utilizing Plumlee’s max efficiency to help maximize the efficiency of the team. The argument about who should be starting, Plumlee or Leonard is probably far from over from the fans perspective. However, I feel the same can be said for Leonard. My personal belief is that one of two things will happen with Leonard if given a larger role and more minutes- 1) Leonard maintains his current trajectory, sometimes wowing fans but ultimately, still inconsistent and unworthy of being a primary big that’s a building block of the team going forward. 2) Leonard shows some solid growth in both his game and consistency – his confidence grows on both ends of the floor and Leonard acquits himself nicely as a primary big and a featured player that the front office and the team feels is securely in place for the future. However, with the current make up of the team, unless Stotts changes his mind or there’s an injury to one of the other bigs, I don’t see Leonard getting that additional time. That is unless, as some have said, Meyers plays so well that he forces Stotts’ hand. In that case I don’t think anyone, for or against Leonard could argue against him getting more playing time.
In the end I’ve probably not helped push the debate one way or the other – for or against Meyers Leonard. Ultimately, that wasn’t my intention- what I wanted to do was take a look at the whole body of work and see what came out at the end. I will however leave it with this; my own personal belief is that Leonard has both the capacity to grow and the capabilities on the court to be a very solid player in this league. I think in his case, how he is used is more important than say a Mason Plumlee. I think players like Plumlee and Davis, because they know their role they come ready to play it on a nightly basis. In Leonard I feel you have a player who thinks/knows he can do more if only given the chance, yet he plays himself into so many knots at times that he ends up stepping on his own feet in the process. With his impending free agency coming up, and the inability to sign a new deal before the season got under way- I think it’s imperative for both the Blazers and Leonard to know who he is going forward. For the sake of the Blazers, I feel it would behoove them to give him extended minutes and a larger role this year to see if he can indeed realize his potential- to establish his market value and ascertain whether or not he’s a part of their plans going forward. For Leonard on an individual level he needs to to perform or get off the pot as it were. This is the time where players hit that make or break level- they climb the ladder, step by step taking what is theirs by work not right and establish themselves as featured players on an NBA team, or ultimately they are who they are and they bounce around from team to team filling in a role or two as necessary over the course of a few lower dollar contracts.
If you've made it this far- congratulations! I hope you enjoyed this piece and I'm always looking for feedback- so if you feel so inclined to respond to not just the profile but the style, arrangement, content, anything- please let me know.
Thanks!
-Dan
Meyers Leonard. Love him. Hate him. Love-hate him. Hate-love him. Frenemy. Unicorn. These are just a few things I’ve seen or heard when Meyers Leonard’s name comes up. I don’t think it’s any kind of stretch to call Leonard the most polarizing player on the roster.
Last week I profiled Mason Plumlee, and while there were some things in there a few disagreed with, for the most part- it was accepted that Plumlee is who is he is. While there’s certainly room for growth and improvement, you don’t anticipate or expect him to suddenly become a dominant player. Ed Davis, Easy Ed, is a player that is quickly becoming some what of a Blazers folk hero. Much like the big men that came before him- Joel Pryzbilla, Brian Grant, Jerome Kersey, and countless others- Davis shows up night in and night out, and as a fan you don’t suddenly expect him to go off for 20 and 10. Is he capable of having a night like that once or twice a season? Sure. This is the NBA. Home of the most dynamic athletes in the world. But my point here is that while those nights are fun to enjoy you don’t expect them, but rather appreciate them when they appear. My belief is that unlike Ed Davis, Mason Plumlee, or to an extent Noah Vonleh- where you know what kind of player they are and what they bring to the table on a nightly basis, Meyers is a bit of a wildcard- to say the least. If you asked 10 Trailblazer fans to describe Meyers, you’re likely to get 10 different answers. Some good, some great, some bad- some, inevitably, not very flattering as well. What you will find however is that there is no consensus. Much like the political battlefields of the upcoming election- each side sees their view as the most obvious perspective, where lines are dug deeply into the sand, even the proverbial mud slinging takes place from time to time across the forums that support the scarlet, silver, and black. The only certainty, is that who or what Leonard is today – in the scheme of an NBA player- or could be tomorrow, is totally uncertain.
A lot of people have an opinion on the 23-year-old and most of those opinions probably match the previously stated views. Instead of going through each of those opinions I’ll opt instead to analyze Leonard through the prism of statistics, analytics, and video evidence- but first let’s go back to the beginning to track his evolution. Coming out of the University of Illinois, Meyers was a project big with- hopefully- the ability to be the coveted CotF (center of the future) If you back and look at his final year in college, the was definitely reason to believe that it was possible that Leonard had the potential to be a legitimate NBA big- he’s a 18th all time in rebounding percentage for the Big Ten (14.7%) and 16th all time in block percentage (6.5%) In conference play the 2nd year big averaged 13/8/2, shooting 55% from the field and respectable 73% from the line. If you were to put those numbers up for any sophomore starting center in the Power 5 conferences, I think every NBA scout would take notice. His starts are remarkably similar to fellow 7 footer Nikola Vucevic’s sophomore year. Leonard’s first couple years in the NBA were a feeling out process- one that fluctuated from promising to down right unwatchable at times. Even the most casual of fans could see the proverbial “deer in the headlights” look that Leonard flashed on more than one occasion per game. Clearly the speed of the game was more than a bit too fast for him at times. However, the casual fan could see that when that light came on it could be quite bright. The Trailblazer fans inside the Moda Center have been known to appreciate the little things better than a lot of crowds- the intelligentsia of the NBA world as it were- and they showed it whenever Leonard made a play that showed growth, yet were patient when he made a face palm inducing mistake. That is until they started becoming more and more frequent. By his 3rd year in Portland, Leonard had worked himself into Coach Terry Stotts’ doghouse, then came word from Leonard that he’d spent his summer working on…hitting 3’s? In his first 2 years Leonard was 3 for 13, 23%- in college he went 1 for 12, so we’re not talking about a guy who’s used to stretching the floor. Predictably, the reaction was a backhanded “good for you” type reception, but to Leonard’s credit he came out and showed it wasn’t a joke. Leonard’s per 36 numbers in 2014-15; nearly 14 and 11 while putting up 51fg%, 42% 3pt, 94%FT, otherwise known as the 50/40/90 club, were a more than a bit surprising to some. While Meyers continued to have some more of the same “doh!” moments he’s had in the past few years, something else also happened… he started to play basketball. I know that sounds corny, but what he was doing before could easily be confused for a Benny Hill sketch as it could for NBA level basketball (confused on your own dunk isn’t a good look…)
Back to the whole “playing basketball” thing- if you go back and look at the 14-15 opponent field goal percentages, some interesting numbers start to pop up. Among players who faced at least 6 shots per game inside 5 feet- Leonard hard the 3rd best defensive field goal percentage. Third best. One. Two. Third. ( ) For another perspective I went to the trusty folks at NylonCalculus who conveniently have rim protection data from 14-15, and when you check for Meyers he pops up 5th best. That’s behind Rudy Gobert, Serge Ibaka, Andrew Bogut, and in front of Roy Hibbert. If we’re talking rim protection, that’s pretty much the crème de la crème of paint patrol. Now for sanity’s sake I checked his points saved (adj) per 36 and found that, while not in the uber elite company of the Stifle Tower he was still in the top 20%. While Leonard may not be a rim protector in the same sense a Gobert, Ibaka, or DeAndre Jordan are- sending shots into the 67th row on the regular- he is very good at two things in particular. One, being vertical- a learned behavior that he seems to have picked up from his time with Robin Lopez and Joel Freeland- both renowned for their ability to avoid bringing their arms down- but instead getting as long as possible and denying easy shots. When you accompany that with Leonard’s other good thing – being really big, you begin to see how he could be a solid rim protector. Leonard is a legitimate 7 footer with a 7’3” wingspan and a build that takes up more space than a phone booth has to offer. Seriously, picture that guy in a phone booth… now imagine trying to shoot over that with your face pressed up against the glass from the outside. You being to see how difficult he could make it for someone to score over him effectively and efficiently. If you require a third reference for his impact around the rim, take a look here- nestled in between Roy Hibbert and Andrew Bogut yet again, the young Meyers Leonard.
While no one will confuse Leonard for Charles Barkley (for many reasons) when it comes to rebounding Leonard can at least hold his own. Leonard doesn’t often go after offensive rebounds. Let me rephrase that, last year he didn’t go after offensive rebounds all that much- on par with Aldridge but half as often as either Lopez or Joel Freeland. By every metric he’s a run of the mill average rebounder on the offensive end. On the defensive side of things, last year Leonard was about on par with LaMarcus Aldridge, gobbling up nearly a quarter of the defensive boards when he was on the court, and chasing nearly 40% of the time. (For a deeper look on the spatial mapping of rebounding in the NBA I highly recommend this article here by Kirk Goldsberry.)
Now that we’ve covered the past lets’ get into this year- in fact let’s do a little scene setting; LaMarcus Aldridge, Robin Lopez, Wesley Matthews, and Nicolas Batum have all left the team in one facet of another, Meyers is fresh off a full display of OMG MEYERS!?!? in the first round of the playoffs when Portland was out of answers for the Memphis Grizzlies, Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum and Meyers Leonard are packaged up as the building blocks of the franchise- marketed as a very good and exciting young core that will be the foundation of the Blazers going forward. One minor note here that no one seemed to catch on to- Leonard will now be playing the role of power forward. So let’s analyze this for a second- a player that was drafted to be a rim protecting/rebounding, traditional big- a guy that’s 7’1” and 260lbs, has developed a 3 point shot, showed up on the bright lights of the playoffs against one of the premier centers in the league, demonstrated an ability to be a very solid paint protector…is moving out to the perimeter to guard stretch 4s?
The Blazers started their season off with a bang, a rousing 18-point win over a the 2014-15 playoff bound New Orleans Pelicans. Meyers acquitted himself nicely in his season and career debut at the 4- 12 points, 8 rebounds, and a sub par 2 for 7 from 3. But he had passed the opening test, so that little bit could be swept under the rug. Then came a home and home vs the Phoenix Suns. As good as Portland looked against the Pelicans- they looked equally if not worse against the Suns. No one epitomized that more so than Leonard, who in 17 minutes of action went 0 for 5 with 3 rebounds and 5 fouls. Queue the sad trombone sounds effects. In terms of terrible basketball it wasn’t quite a trillion, but it was pretty close. Besides his awful night from the field, he did nearly everything he could to kick start the Suns offense in the early going. He was constantly late on pick and roll coverage, prone to fouling, and seemingly lost every time down the court. Some up, some down, you expect a young player to have a rough night from time to time, and after all this is a rebuild year. Halloween night was, well a house of horrors for Leonard. In another schlacking Leonard put up 9 points and a single rebound in over 30 minutes of action. And for the 2nd night in a row he couldn’t find the distance from 3-point range, going 0 for 4- back to back games without hitting a 3 and now 2 for 11 on the season. The next 2 games, while victories over the Timberwolves and Jazz respectively bring the Blazers record to 3-2 on the young season, Leonard combines for 2 for 9, 6 points and 7 rebounds total in both games and 0 for 5 from 3. In a game that the Blazers won by 16 Meyers is a -1 +/- in just under 12 minutes of action. Then, the Memphis game. Leonard v. Gasol III is on the docket and a chance for early season redemption is within reach. The young man doesn’t disappoint- 5 for 7, 14 points and 5 rebounds in a 16-point rout of the Grizzlies. To drive home, the point, all world center Marc Gasol goes 4 for 13 and a game worst -21.
These games were followed up by very solid performances from Leonard- but bad losses for the Blazers against the Pistons and Nuggets in which he averaged 14 and 6. Then came the game vs the Spurs and a scary moment- in a play reminiscent of the Kevin Love/Kelly Olynk play from last season, Leonard got tangled up and after a quick yank on his arm he was in what appears to be pretty serious pain. The diagnosis? Separated shoulder. Typically, this is an injury where the timetable for return isn’t a matter of days but weeks – take a look a Joakim Noah who’s been ruled out for 4-6 months after his latest injury. Meyers misses 2 weeks and 7 games. Leonard returns to mixed reviews against the Lakers and Clippers, playing a supporting role in both games but not really impacting either in any way. The Dallas game on December 1st has been Leonard’s best statistical game of the season- 23 points, 7 rebounds and 4 made 3’s in a game that came down to the wire. It appeared as though Leonard had gotten rid of any cob webs associated with missed time. Then reality set in. From December 7th to the 21st Leonard went 3 from 25 from 3, never scored more than 8 points, and pulled down more then 6 rebounds 3 times.
In that game span the forums weren’t exactly kind to Leonard. Soft. Overrated. Trade bait. Wasted talent. I’m sure someone probably made fun of his dog too, it s the internet after all. The basketball stuff wasn’t exactly wrong though. His offensive skillset, the ability to knock down shots disappeared. He was constantly late rotating and/or closing out on players at the perimeter and he often found himself in between a play, unsure of whether to close out or deny the drive- more often than not making the incorrect read. Something has since clicked for the 23-year-old. He’s gone from shooting under 24% from 3 (10/30-12/21) to over 49% from 3, on over 4 attempts per game (12-22-current) bringing him up to a respectable 34% on the season. Averaging over 10 points and 5 rebounds in 23 minutes a game- he’s also carrying the largest +/- in that span. Offensively it appears that Leonard has found his stride lately, and an uptick in performance is probably exactly what he needs. Currently Leonard is playing right around 24 minutes a game, and sports a usage rate of 17% (Plumlee has a higher usage rate than Leonard, albeit slight)- it’s not out of this world to expect that if his usage rate and/or minutes went up that he could bump those averages to 14 points and 7 rebounds per game. Offensively, Leonard isn’t just limited to the 3 point shot- if you take a look at Leonard’s shot chart for his career, most of you will probably be left scratching their heads.
What you find here is a player that is not only efficient but good from nearly everywhere on the floor throughout his career. Take the game against the 76ers (yeah, I don’t really want to recall that one either…but….) When a team sags into the paint continually on every single pick and roll that involves Plumlee, the obvious counter to that is running a side PnR with a player that can extend the defense and prevent them from sagging back into the paint. Or, if they do sag back in, make them pay for doing so by continually knocking down jumpers from the elbow. It’s glimpses of brilliance like this that I think cause so much polarization anytime Leonard is brought up. Clearly, he’s the only player on the Blazers roster who has demonstrated the skills necessary to be very good in the pick and roll, pick and pop, drive and kick, and to a crazy extent the post up game. I know this seems a bit off the rails here, but hear me out. It’s a VERY small sample but it’s something I’ve kept my eye on this season. Leonard does not have magnificent footwork, that much is clear. However robotically he may back into the paint, something happens between that point and when he makes a move to the rim. Nearly every time he’s been in position to score off a back down, the big fella has delivered. Ed Davis and Leonard are two of the most reliable paint finishers on the team- Davis doing most of his work on put backs or rim runs, while Leonard picks up a post up possession about once per game. It’s nothing to get crazy excited about by any means, but it only adds fuel to the fire when you talk about Leonard. There’s these moments that you leave you wanting more, yet the consistency on the offensive end has yet to really manifest itself.
Now that we’ve delved into the world of offense, lets take a look at the other side of the ball. If you look at Leonard’s DFG% this season, among players 6’10” or taller he’s 81st of 88. His contested FG% is amongst defensive luminaries such as Frank Kaminsky and Robert Sacre- allowing opponents to convert on over 53% of shots that he contests. Pretty much every defensive number is down across the board, if you take a look at Leonard in pick and roll coverage on the roll man, he’s one of the worst among bigs who’ve been put in that situation 30 times. Granted it’s a very small sample size, but if I’m going to criticize Plumlee, I have to do just the same to Leonard in this circumstance. When you take a look at Leonard’s highest percentage of defensive possessions, it’s nowhere near the rim, but instead in the catch and shoot. While he’s not a defensive stalwart here, he’s also not the sieve some claim him to be. Allowing just under 1 point per possession in catch and shoot situations, (accounting for 25% of his defensive plays) he’s sandwiched in between Jae Crowder and Victor Oladipo, and on par with Draymond Green and Chris Bosh. That’s pretty decent company, especially so considering you’re asking a man who’s been in the paint his entire life to chase guys around the 3-point line. One place where Leonard has been steady over the past few years is actually in the paint. His post up defense rates solidly. Considering the earlier discussed phone booth metaphor, it makes sense that if Leonard is able to keep his man in space that he can alter a shot just with his size. My take on Leonard’s defensive impact overall- if you’re asking him to come out and chase smaller, more athletic players out around the 3-point line and then asking him to recover off of a stretched pick and roll, you’re not going to get the best results. Conversely, if you have him anchor the paint and funnel traffic to him in a compact space, he’s shown that he can bother shots well enough to make them a lower percentage. Also, he can more than handle himself in single coverage on the block, which is more than can be said about any other Blazers big at this time.
Now, why don’t we discuss rebounding. Leonard now contests less defensive rebounds while on the court than either Maurice Harkless or Al-Farouq Aminu. While he is contesting less, his success rate is near 50%, but when you’re contesting less than 10% of the time how great of an achievement is that really? At that point the vast majority of your rebounds are falling into your hands, uncontested. Much like my earlier statement about Leonard chasing smaller players around the 3-point line probably isn’t conducive to a sound defensive scheme, the same can be said about having Meyers out at the 3-point line to rebound. While he’s not Dennis Rodman, when he’s been at the center position he’s been able to rebound at a rate that’s commensurate with last year- in fact if you take a look at Portland’s top 7 defensive rebounding lineups, 5 of them have Leonard in them. Considering that by every metric, Ed Davis is a sub par to average defensive rebounder, it’s fair to say that Leonard is having a positive effect on that end of the floor rebounding the ball. The one thing you’ll probably notice within those lineups is that Leonard is playing his more natural (in my opinion) position- at the center and deeper in the paint.
Last week I mentioned how I thought that Plumlee, while not spectacular has a role on this team going forward. That role, a bench big who can use his athleticism, hustle, and playmaking skills to help facilitate the offense and spark the defense for 20 minutes a night would be fantastic. However, due to managing the bigger picture I feel like Coach Stotts has sacrificed utilizing Plumlee’s max efficiency to help maximize the efficiency of the team. The argument about who should be starting, Plumlee or Leonard is probably far from over from the fans perspective. However, I feel the same can be said for Leonard. My personal belief is that one of two things will happen with Leonard if given a larger role and more minutes- 1) Leonard maintains his current trajectory, sometimes wowing fans but ultimately, still inconsistent and unworthy of being a primary big that’s a building block of the team going forward. 2) Leonard shows some solid growth in both his game and consistency – his confidence grows on both ends of the floor and Leonard acquits himself nicely as a primary big and a featured player that the front office and the team feels is securely in place for the future. However, with the current make up of the team, unless Stotts changes his mind or there’s an injury to one of the other bigs, I don’t see Leonard getting that additional time. That is unless, as some have said, Meyers plays so well that he forces Stotts’ hand. In that case I don’t think anyone, for or against Leonard could argue against him getting more playing time.
In the end I’ve probably not helped push the debate one way or the other – for or against Meyers Leonard. Ultimately, that wasn’t my intention- what I wanted to do was take a look at the whole body of work and see what came out at the end. I will however leave it with this; my own personal belief is that Leonard has both the capacity to grow and the capabilities on the court to be a very solid player in this league. I think in his case, how he is used is more important than say a Mason Plumlee. I think players like Plumlee and Davis, because they know their role they come ready to play it on a nightly basis. In Leonard I feel you have a player who thinks/knows he can do more if only given the chance, yet he plays himself into so many knots at times that he ends up stepping on his own feet in the process. With his impending free agency coming up, and the inability to sign a new deal before the season got under way- I think it’s imperative for both the Blazers and Leonard to know who he is going forward. For the sake of the Blazers, I feel it would behoove them to give him extended minutes and a larger role this year to see if he can indeed realize his potential- to establish his market value and ascertain whether or not he’s a part of their plans going forward. For Leonard on an individual level he needs to to perform or get off the pot as it were. This is the time where players hit that make or break level- they climb the ladder, step by step taking what is theirs by work not right and establish themselves as featured players on an NBA team, or ultimately they are who they are and they bounce around from team to team filling in a role or two as necessary over the course of a few lower dollar contracts.
If you've made it this far- congratulations! I hope you enjoyed this piece and I'm always looking for feedback- so if you feel so inclined to respond to not just the profile but the style, arrangement, content, anything- please let me know.
Thanks!
-Dan
Great read though!
