Bill Simmons Mailbag: Blazers Stuff

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Q: I recently stumbled across some numbers that made me completely reconsider Rasheed Wallace's place in history. Would you put his 41 technicals in 2000-2001 up against DiMaggio's 56 in a row? I would. And he only played 77 games, which means a technical every 1.87 games!
-- Will, Germantown, Tenn.

SG: I've said it before, I'll say it again: There needs to be a Jail Blazers documentary. It could be three hours long and I would watch it. Coming up, Zach Randolph sucker-punches Ruben Patterson, breaks his eye socket and has to hide out at Dale Davis' house that night when Ruben vows to kill him! And coming up later, Ha Seung-Jin attacks Nedzad Sinanovic with a wooden pole during a summer workout! That's next on the "The Legend of the Jail Blazers!" But to answer your question, I would absolutely put 'Sheed's 1.87 up there with Joe D's 56-game streak, Bob Gibson's 1.12 ERA and Wilt's 50 points per game as the Mount Ru- … I mean, four really great one-season records.


[...]


Q: At what point does Sam Bowie hug Greg Oden and tell him it's not his fault over and over again?
-- Andrew, Seattle

SG: Would he put on a Robin Williams sanctioned beard and cardigan? I feel like he'd have to. By the way, Oden-Durant remains one of those rare stories that isn't getting enough attention -- not just the offensive leap that Durant made this season, but just how lousy Oden's "rookie" season has been compared to what our expectations were in 2007. Forget about his durability issues, his knee injury that cost him last season, even all his nagging little injuries this season. Just in the games that he has played -- and again, we're talking about 49 of a possible 125 -- he has been absolutely underwhelming compared to our original expectations. Here's what Chad Ford wrote in his 2007 Draft Tracker scouting report on Oden, and remember, this was the consensus opinion at the time.

  • "The consensus No. 1 pick in the draft despite Kevin Durant's amazing season. Draws comparisons to Tim Duncan, Patrick Ewing and David Robinson. He may not be spectacular, but most NBA GMs believe he'll immediately be one of the top two centers in the league. His strong performance in the NCAA title game gave us a glimmer of what he's capable of, going for 25 points, 12 boards and four blocks."
I didn't agree with that assessment (especially the "immediately one of the top two centers part) and thought Durant was the only sure thing in that draft. Regardless, a good chunk of people DID agree with Chad's take, and since that's the case, how can anyone argue Oden's NBA career has been anything other than a disaster so far? You don't think it's a red flag that he averaged a 15-9 with three blocks in his only college season, and his typical NBA stat line was "nine points, seven rebounds, one blocks and a 50 percent chance of foul trouble in 20-23 minutes?" What have we seen from him that tells us, "Greg Oden can consistently dominate a basketball game?" I'm still waiting. Hell, even Sam Bowie did better in his rookie season: 10.0 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 2.8 APG and 2.8 BPG in 76 games. I'm not saying Oden can't turn it around and become a valuable starting center, but his ceiling has lowered to the degree that only an insane person would argue Portland did the right thing two summers ago. The Blazers drafted LaRue Martin over Bob McAdoo in 1972; they gave away young Moses Malone for a measly first-round pick in 1976 (even though he was two years removed from being the most ballyhooed high school prospect since Kareem); they passed on the greatest player of all-time in 1984 (and took a 23-year-old center coming off two years of leg surgeries); they traded out of the third spot in the 2005 draft when Chris Paul and Deron Williams were the next two picks; and they passed on the evolutionary cross between Tracy McGrady, George Gervin and Plastic Man in 2007. Has any sports franchise botched five "sure-thing" decisions on that level in the span of just 35 years? Has to be a record.
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Link
 
Bill Simmons would be making many of the same excuses that Blazer fans are making for Oden if he had been drafted by the Celtics, which is what he and the franchise were banking on prior to the draft lottery.

Just as I view the bend-over-backwards defensiveness toward Oden to be based on homerism, I also have to view completely unfair criticisms like I just read on Simmons' own homerism.
 
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Hmmm, he still seems bitter about Portland winning the lottery when the Celtics we denied they're destiny. You can go back in any team's draft history and find stuff like that.

Boston drafted Paul Westfall over Dr. J and Antoine Walker at 6 over Kobe at 13. Not to mention their completely wasted #2 pick for Len Bias.

Bill Simmons has never had a good thing to say about the Blazers. And considering this is a very small market team and he's a fan of the "greatest NBA franchise in history" with a huge market why does he pay so much attention to the Blazers to make himself feel better? Is there some Freudian thing going on here?
 
Bill Simmons can lick my scrotum.

All this obsession over Oden being somehow terrible when he's still got the most double-doubles of any rookie, and his PER of 17.5 already makes him an above average starter. Sure he's shown himself to be incredibly foul prone, and that has substantially limited his minutes (when he was healthy), but it's all pretty much part of the emerging narrative that the national media seem to be intent on creating "Sam Bowie part II", "Oden vs. Durant = Bowie vs. Jordan" etc.

Sports reporters don't report on sports anymore, they're obsessed with driving and creating the story, this slipshod, lackluster analysis just reinforces that perception for me. Besides, there seems to be a strong desire to see highly touted draft picks in all sports fail; what sports writer doesn't secretly relish the opportunity to wag their finger and say, "I told you so." to some GM, or to ridicule and mock the Kwame Browns and Darko Milicices of the world? Par for the course.
 
"Underwhelming"? I'm afraid Simmons is exactly right. That's a perfect word for Oden's performance this year.

Will Oden get better and finally meet our expectations? Maybe. But it ain't happened yet, and there is no guarantee that it ever will.
 
Nikolokolus said:
Besides, there seems to be a strong desire to see highly touted draft picks in all sports fail; what sports writer doesn't secretly relish the opportunity to wag their finger and say, "I told you so." to some GM, or to ridicule and mock the Kwame Browns and Darko Milicices of the world? Par for the course.
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I agree with your entire post. On this point, I'd add that sports writers like spectacular successes or spectacular failures. They're much happier with a Kwame Brown flame out #1 pick than a Joe Smith #1 pick. Sure, Smith was a bust for a top pick, but he's been an okay player...he hasn't been the spectacular bust that Brown or Olowakandi were. Thus, they have a bias toward pushing highly-drafted players into the spectacular success or spectacular failure category. Oden, so far, hasn't been the superstar that a #1 pick is supposed to be. Of course, simply putting it like that, and pointing out that he's played better than his raw stats indicate, wouldn't be exciting writing. It's better to cast him as Sam Bowie and a crushing failure. If he's great later, they'll be happy to place him on a pedestal at that point. For now, though, crushing failure is the better story.
 
I would play the part of Gary Trent! BeerBoy could play one of my hoz!
 
Martin over McAdoo.
The Malone trade.
Bowie over Jordan.
Webster over Paul/Williams.
He was kind and didn't even mention the Kiki deal, Jermaine for DD, or Kemp.

Sorry, but he is absolutely correct. The Blazers have a history of torturing their fans with idiotic moves. Given that history, why should he give Oden or the team the benefit of the doubt?
 
Well, at least none of our high draft picks died of a cocaine overdose within 48 hours of being picked.

BTW, I think that was very sad and tragic, but if Simmons wants to bring up our draft failuers, turn-about is fair play.

Besides, Oden HAS been dominant at times this season. He's also been very inconsistent and foul prone. He's a rookie big man coming off microfracture surgery. It's a little early to be lumping him in with LaRue Martin.

BNM
 
oldmangrouch said:
Martin over McAdoo.
The Malone trade.
Bowie over Jordan.
Webster over Paul/Williams.
He was kind and didn't even mention the Kiki deal, Jermaine for DD, or Kemp.

Sorry, but he is absolutely correct. The Blazers have a history of torturing their fans with idiotic moves. Given that history, why should he give Oden or the team the benefit of the doubt?
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How many of those boneheaded moves were made by the same GM that picked Oden? Exactly zero. Before we right off the Oden pick as a bust, let's give the kid a couple more years and trust the judgement of the guy who plucked both Roy and Aldridge out of the 2006 draft when other GMs with higher picks preferred Bargnani, Tyrus Thomas, Adam Morrison, Shelden Williams and Randy Foye.

Simmons is still pissed that we striffed them in the Tefair trade, got Roy as a result, and beat the odds in 2007 to win the lottery after the Celtics spent the season tanking in hopes of landing Oden or Durant. Bitter, bitter little clown.

BNM
 
I call bullshit. I don't remember Simmons saying anything about Durant being better than Oden before the 2007 draft.
 
I do. Simmons was in the Durant camp. I don't remember for sure if it was before or after he knew the Celtics weren't getting the first pick. But I do remember him saying the Blazers should pick Durant.
 
Foulzilla said:
I do. Simmons was in the Durant camp. I don't remember for sure if it was before or after he knew the Celtics weren't getting the first pick. But I do remember him saying the Blazers should pick Durant.
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Yep, and he makes some points that are still debated to this day.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=nbamockdraft/070627

1. PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS


Bill Simmons selects: Kevin Durant, SF, Texas
If I'm Portland's GM, I just spent the last five weeks wondering about Greg Oden. What's his ceiling? Can he be better than Patrick Ewing? Alonzo Mourning? Can he become as dominant as Tim Duncan? Should I be worried about his surgically repaired wrist, or the fact that he might suffer back problems some day because his legs are different sizes? What about the fact that he likes basketball, but doesn't love it? The thing is, all these franchise centers are basically the same -- it just comes down to their inherent will to dominate a game. Hakeem had that will, Duncan has it, Moses had it, Shaq had it in 2000 and 2001 ... for whatever reason, Ewing didn't have it, and neither did Mourning or Robinson. Can you see Oden stepping onto a basketball court and saying, "There's no way we're losing this f-ing game. I'm destroying the other team tonight." For some reason, I can't.


Well, Durant plays that way every game. He's a cold-blooded killer. I hate pre-draft workouts, but didn't you find it interesting that Oden was nervous, awkward and apologetic during his workout in Portland, but a confident Durant strolled in there two days later and blew everyone away? You know what's funny about that? I knew that was going to happen. One guy plays basketball because he was created to play basketball; the other plays because he was bigger than everyone else and it seemed like the logical thing to do. If there was a pickup game and Oden was on one side, Durant was on the other, and your life depended on the game, you'd pick Durant. You would.



So if Portland takes Oden, it will happen because of conventional NBA logic (you always take the franchise center), because their fans are pushing for him (obviously, nobody watches college basketball in Portland) and because he's a personable, gregarious, likable big guy for a city that's desperately needed a personable, gregarious, likable big guy ever since Bill Walton ditched Portland for San Diego. I'm not saying those reasons are wrong. In fact, I understand them completely. But if I'm Portland's GM, I'm taking the guy with a legitimate chance to go down with Bird, Magic, MJ, Baylor, Oscar, West, Duncan, Pettit, Havlicek and every other great non-center who ever played in the National Basketball Association. I'm taking Kevin Durant.
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Wow, for just being a "funny" guy, Simmons made one heck of a predraft analysis!
 
And I'm thinking that the reason Simmon's analysis is so good is because it's just a gut reaction, the same way we decided to pick Brandon Roy. And of course I'm just speculating, but it seems maybe KP didn't listen to his gut reaction after meeting these two guys.
 
Fez said:
Bill Simmons picked up credibility points with this. He's EXACTLY right.

Can you see Oden stepping onto a basketball court and saying, "There's no way we're losing this f-ing game. I'm destroying the other team tonight." For some reason, I can't.

Bill Simmonsadamus. Greg Oden is a pussy and plays like one.
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Even a blind rat finds some cheese every once in awhile.

Oden may be a lot of things, but pussy is not one that comes to mind. He IS the second best rebounder on the team. And he IS the best offensive rebounder on the team. He sets picks that destroy the other player.

No, he isn't a pussy. You have bought in to the media's portrayal of him. I can only judge him by what happens on the court. By that measurement, he will be a fine player if injuries don't derail his career.

Which can happen to anyone. IIRC, Durant has been out for a while with a sprained ankle that was so bad he is wearing a boot. I hope it isn't a chronic problem, but it could turn out to be the beginning of the end for Durant.

Will you turn on Roy if his foot troubles surface again? Or LA if his heart acts up? Going by what I am reading here, the answer is yes.
 
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