Bill Simons says it again "Oden a Bust"

[Miksaid]

I missed it, what did they say?

PTI said that its the Blazers 2 year anniversary when they won the lottery/Gregory. They mentioned that he missed his entire first year and in his second year he averaged only 9 points and 7 rebounds... which is uncharacteristic of a number one draft pick.

However, Michael Wilbon ended it on a positive note saying something to the tune of "but I don't think we've seen everything from him yet".

 

[Sedatedfork]

Oden's only played one NBA season. It is WAY too early to call him a bust or to even say that is where he is headed. This season was underwhelming for him, but I definitely saw flashes. It's not just Oden that needs to work on his game, but the rest of the Blazers need to work on how to get the ball to Oden when he is in good position. The media needs to wait and see how he improves his 2nd year in the league. I still have big hopes for Oden and frankly I am a little shocked at everyone being so ready to jump ship on him.

 

[oldmangrouch]

nope.

nope.

Based on what, pray tell? The kid wasn't even a dominant scorer in college. Expecting him to turn into Hakeem, Shaq, or Jabbar is pure wishful thinking. If he averages 15 PPG, I will be pleasantly surprised.

Why can't people just accept that Oden was drafted for his potential as a defensive stopper?

 

[andalusian]

Based on what, pray tell? The kid wasn't even a dominant scorer in college. Expecting him to turn into Hakeem, Shaq, or Jabbar is pure wishful thinking. If he averages 15 PPG, I will be pleasantly surprised.

Why can't people just accept that Oden was drafted for his potential as a defensive stopper?

Because even without his athletic ability and very raw offensive skills he showed the same (actually slightly better) production per minute as D-Howard did his rookie year - Howard was not recovering from a MF surgery at the time nor was he more than 12 months away from basketball activities.

Heck - Greg's rookie year per-minute production is just a hair behind Howard's 2nd year in the league... and while Howard is not Shaq (nor do I expect Greg to be, offensively) - Howard is a 20PPG this year.

The only thing we can see from Greg when he was Howard's age (as a rookie) and had his athletic ability was from his college year - and even playing with basically one hand (his none-dominant one) - his stats at the same age were better than Howard (granted, against worse competition).

Heck - he is not likely to be the greatest offensive center ever - but given the raw numbers and the circumstances - I find 15PPG as his ceiling offensively to be very very conservative...

 

[oldmangrouch]

Because even without his athletic ability and very raw offensive skills he showed the same (actually slightly better) production per minute as D-Howard did his rookie year - Howard was not recovering from a MF surgery at the time nor was he more than 12 months away from basketball activities.

Heck - Greg's rookie year per-minute production is just a hair behind Howard's 2nd year in the league... and while Howard is not Shaq (nor do I expect Greg to be, offensively) - Howard is a 20PPG this year.

The only thing we can see from Greg when he was Howard's age (as a rookie) and had his athletic ability was from his college year - and even playing with basically one hand (his none-dominant one) - his stats at the same age were better than Howard (granted, against worse competition).

Heck - he is not likely to be the greatest offensive center ever - but given the raw numbers and the circumstances - I find 15PPG as his ceiling offensively to be very very conservative...

I understand your point, but let me play devil's advocate for a moment.

Howard is sharing the ball with Hedo and Lewis - both good offensive players. Are either of them as good as Roy? Are they even really better than LMA? If Rudy and Batum reach their full potential, and Outlaw sticks around, that is a *lot* of offensive firepower. In that context, how many shots do we actually want Oden taking?

 

[Boob-No-More]

In that context, how many shots do we actually want Oden taking?

Absolutey as many as he can get. His shots come close to the basket and that menas:

They are high percentage shots.
He is more likely to draw fouls on the opposition than somebody jacking up 22 ft. jumpers
Shooting close to the basket means more offensive rebounds and fewer long rebounds - that lead to fast breaks going the other way.
The more shots Oden gets in the post, the more it will open things up for our perimeter shooters. He will command double teams, which means someone else is left unguarded.

Any time you have a low post player, you need to pound the ball into him. It wears down the defense and gets them in foul trouble. Oden's low post game will continue to improve. On strength alone, he will get points, draw fouls and grab offensive rebounds. Once his pre-surgery explosiveness returns and he improves his footwork, he will be a dominant low post offensive presence.

BNM

 

[Ed O]

Absolutey as many as he can get. His shots come close to the basket and that menas:

They are high percentage shots.
He is more likely to draw fouls on the opposition than somebody jacking up 22 ft. jumpers
Shooting close to the basket means more offensive rebounds and fewer long rebounds - that lead to fast breaks going the other way.
The more shots Oden gets in the post, the more it will open things up for our perimeter shooters. He will command double teams, which means someone else is left unguarded.

Any time you have a low post player, you need to pound the ball into him. It wears down the defense and gets them in foul trouble. Oden's low post game will continue to improve. On strength alone, he will get points, draw fouls and grab offensive rebounds. Once his pre-surgery explosiveness returns and he improves his footwork, he will be a dominant low post offensive presence.

Yes, yes, a thousand times yes!

Ed O.

 

[mgb]

I missed it, what did they say?

"9/7 in 22 mins, that's not over all #1 worthy just yet, right Wilbon?"

"No it's not, he's had all those injuries you mention, but I think he can be worth it down the road."

I tivo PTI so that is from closed captioning, not sure of the spelling on the name.

 

[mgb]

Yes, yes, a thousand times yes!

Ed O.

I agree with Ed O!

 

[oldmangrouch]

Yes, yes, a thousand times yes!

Ed O.

So......take the ball away from skilled offensive players, and give them to a guy who just happens to be taller? Do you also favor getting Joel as many shots a game as possible? And please, don't try to tell me "that's different".

BTW, how many teams have centers as their leading scorer? Seriously.

 

[JfizzleBlazer]

It's not just Oden that needs to work on his game, but the rest of the Blazers need to work on how to get the ball to Oden when he is in good position. .

Mike Conley anyone?

 

[Ed O]

So......take the ball away from skilled offensive players, and give them to a guy who just happens to be taller?

Oden is skilled, already, at dunking the basketball and getting to the free throw line. Presumably he will only improve as he gets more experienced and rediscovers his explosiveness.

Further, it's not just that he's taller. He's taller and stronger and more effective on the blocks.

Do you also favor getting Joel as many shots a game as possible? And please, don't try to tell me "that's different".

Of course it's different. Joel doesn't EVER draw double teams. Why not? Because he's not as good offensively as Oden. Joel doesn't get to the line nearly as often as Oden. Why not? Because he's not as good offensively as Oden.

Painting Joel and Oden with the same brush merely because they happen to play the same position doesn't make much sense to me.

BTW, how many teams have centers as their leading scorer? Seriously.

Orlando (Howard). Houston (Yao). Phoenix (Shaq). Pretty good teams.

Minnesota (Jefferson) and Toronto (Bosh) have leading scorers that play some center, as well... obviously with less impressive results for their teams.

Ed O.

 

[andalusian]

I understand your point, but let me play devil's advocate for a moment.

Howard is sharing the ball with Hedo and Lewis - both good offensive players. Are either of them as good as Roy? Are they even really better than LMA? If Rudy and Batum reach their full potential, and Outlaw sticks around, that is a *lot* of offensive firepower. In that context, how many shots do we actually want Oden taking?

D-12 gets 12.4 FGA/G in 36MPG, If you extrapolate Oden's current FGA/G to 36MPG you get 9.6 FGA/G - so he is down 3 field goal attempts per game over Howard (this year) - you do not think that between the shots Travis, Sergio, Blake and our other role players take now we can not find 3 shots that Greg takes over them? I really doubt it is such a big deal. The nice thing about these big, strong post players is that their FG% is fantastic. Greg was .564 this year, Howard was .572 this year (for the record he was .52 his rookie year and .531 his 2nd year). They do not need to be volume shooters to get these numbers.

I am 100% with you that there is a reason for concern given Greg's injury history - but - if you actually look at his production when on the court (and I acknowledge that staying on the court was a problem for him this year) and consider that he is recovering from a serious injury and was never really in shape - there is also a lot of hope for real improvement and he is still an elite prospect.

EDIT: Another thing to consider - the Magic this year were 4 possessions per game faster than the Blazers. The Blazers going from dead last to mid-pack in pace is pretty much enough to get them closer to that magical extra attempts Oden needs (per 36) to match the attempts Howard gets.

 

[BClutch]

Wow, this guy has a lot to say about Greg for clearly not having watched any games he's played in.

I guess a quick glance at a stat sheet tells you everything you need to know.

 

[Sedatedfork]

Mike Conley anyone?

I am definitely warming to the idea.

 

[KingSpeed]

Dear Bill Simmons,

You're an idiot. When you can't even get simple facts straight, it makes it impossible to take anything you say seriously (perhaps that's the point - you're supposed to be a funny guy, right?):

"And through two seasons, Oden has shown nothing..."

Oden has played one season, not two. Check back after next year and see how he's doing relative to Darko.

And, since you insist on comparing Oden to Darko, how about backing up your argument with some facts (I know, I know, facts aren't your thing. They aren't funny and always have a nasty way of making your opinions look stupid and ill informed).

Darko did not record his first double-double until his 165th NBA game in mid-January of his FOURTH SEASON.

Oden recorded his first double in his third NBA game.

Through four complete seasons, Darko had a total of 6 double-doubles.

Oden had 6 double-doubles in his first 14 games.

Oden, right now, injuries, fouls and all, is so much better than Darko, it's not even close - no excuses necessary. Oden accomplished more in his 3rd NBA game than Darko did in his first 3 NBA seasons. Comparing the two is ridiculous. I could go on and shown that in raw numbers Oden averaged more PPG and more RPG as a rookie coming off microfracture surgery than Darko has at any time in his 6 year NBA career. I could also compare Oden's superior rebouning rate, much higher FG%, superior Win Shares, and much higher offensive rating, but what's the point? You're so intent on blindly bashing Greg Oden that you clearly aren't interested in facts. If you were, you'd already know Oden was vastly superior as an injured rookie to Darko at any point in his 6 year NBA career.

I hope you like crow. You'll be eating plenty of it in the future.

BNM

Good post.

 

[KingSpeed]

Orlando (Howard). Houston (Yao). Phoenix (Shaq). Pretty good teams.

Minnesota (Jefferson) and Toronto (Bosh) have leading scorers that play some center, as well... obviously with less impressive results for their teams.

Ed O.

Yep. Wilt, Robinson, Hakeem, Ewing, Kareem also all led their teams in scoring.

 

[Boob-No-More]

So......take the ball away from skilled offensive players, and give them to a guy who just happens to be taller?

I don't seem to recall saying anything about his height. Let's check and see. Here's the reasons I listed for getting Oden as many shots as possible:

His shots come close to the basket and that means:

They are high percentage shots.
He is more likely to draw fouls on the opposition than somebody jacking up 22 ft. jumpers
Shooting close to the basket means more offensive rebounds and fewer long rebounds - that lead to fast breaks going the other way.
The more shots Oden gets in the post, the more it will open things up for our perimeter shooters. He will command double teams, which means someone else is left unguarded.

Nope, don't see anything about height there.

In terms of taking the ball away from more skilled players, Oden was a more efficient scorer than all five guys who attempted more FGA/G than he did. A little stat I like to use that shows how efficient a player scores is the simple PTS/FGA (points per field goal attempt). Here's the break down for Blazers top six scorers:

Brandon Roy PPG = 22.6, FGA/G = 16.9, PTS/FGA = 1.34
LaMarcus Aldridge PPG = 18.1, FGA/G = 15.3, PTS/FGA = 1.18
Travis Outlaw PPG = 12.8, FGA/G = 10.5, PTS/FGA = 1.22
Steve Blake PPG = 11.0, FGA/G = 9.4, PTS/FGA = 1.17
Rudy Fernandez PPG = 10.4, FGA/G = 8.1, PTS/FGA = 1.28
Greg Oden PPG = 8.9, FGA/G = 5.8, PTS/FGA = 1.53

So yeah, I wouldn't mind seeing Oden get some more shots at the expense of some of the guys shooting more, but scoring less efficiently.

Oden also draws fouls at a rate higher than anyone else on the team. He shot 3.7 FTA, which is incredible for a player that only attempts 5.8 FGA.

Again, here's the ratio of FGA/FTA for the Blazers top six scorers:

Brandon Roy FGA/G = 16.9, FTA/G = 6.5, FGA/FTA = 2.60
LaMarcus Aldridge FGA/G = 15.3, FTA/G = 4.1, FGA/FTA = 3.73
Travis Outlaw FGA/G = 10.5, FTA/G = 3.0, FGA/FTA = 3.50
Steve Blake FGA/G = 9.4, FTA/G = 1.1, FGA/FTA = 8.55
Rudy Fernandez FGA/G = 8.1, FTA/G = 1.8, FGA/FTA = 4.50
Greg Oden FGA/G = 5.8, FTA/G = 3.7, FGA/FTA = 1.57

Oden is much more likely to draw fouls on the other team than anyone else on the Blazers. So yes, again, I wouldn't mind seeing him get more FGA/G at the expense of some of our jump shooters who don't get the other team's big men in foul trouble.

And this was Oden's performance as an injured, out-of-shape rookie. He will only get better in both of these areas as he continues to recover from microfracture surgery, regain explosivness and gain experience.

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

BTW, how many teams have centers as their leading scorer? Seriously.

I don't recall saying Oden should be our leading scorer, just that I'd like to see him get a lot more FGA/G than the 5.8 he averaged this season.

BTW, during the Lakers 3-peat, Shaq, not Kobe, led the team in scoring in both the regular season and playoffs all three years. The following two seasons, Kobe led the team in scoring in the regular season and the play-offs and the Lakers lost to the Spurs and the Pistons.

Again, I'm not saying Greg Oden needs to lead the Blazers in scoring, or FGA/G, but I do think it would help the team tremendously for him to get a lot more FGA/G than the 5.8 he averaged as a rookie. I'd like to see him get twice that many FGA/G during his second season - even if that means guys like Blake and Outlaw get fewer shot attempts.

BNM

 

[Nikolokolus]

Mike Conley anyone?

I'd be on board ... will Memphis be? There's the rub.

 

[BrianFromWA]

Yep. Wilt, Robinson, Hakeem, Ewing, Kareem also all led their teams in scoring.

I think that he's more of a Russell type, though. I have no problem having Brandon and LMA outscore him.

 

[oldmangrouch]

You know, there is a delightful irony here.

We had a very talented low-post scorer. We had a guy who was great at drawing fouls and cashing in at the line. The hatred fans poured on his head reached the point of being pathological. Fans raged at Nate to ditch the low-post offense in favor of a more perimeter oriented game.

Be careful what you wish for!

 

[Minstrel]

I think that he's more of a Russell type, though. I have no problem having Brandon and LMA outscore him.

I think he's going to be so big, strong and athletic that he'll be the focus of opposing defenses. And that is despite my belief that Roy is a top-ten player. Roy, as good as he is, can miss jumpers. Oden, if he's not focused on, will be scoring on one inside basket after another, which are much higher percentage.

 

[oldmangrouch]

I think that he's more of a Russell type, though. I have no problem having Brandon and LMA outscore him.

Exactly the point that started this whole debate. If what the Blazers wanted was an offensive weapon, Durant would have been the pick.

(Just watch....someone will now try to claim that Oden is a better *scorer* than Durant!)

 

[oldmangrouch]

I think he's going to be so big, strong and athletic that he'll be the focus of opposing defenses. And that is despite my belief that Roy is a top-ten player. Roy, as good as he is, can miss jumpers. Oden, if he's not focused on, will be scoring on one inside basket after another, which are much higher percentage.

Except for when he gets stripped, or travels, or commits an offensive foul, or rimchecks himself......or when they go to "hack-a-Shaq" because he (like Howard) is not all that good a FT shooter.

Aw, what's the use. Nobody wants to hear that the emperor has no clothes. I'll let history vindicate me.

 

[Minstrel]

Except for when he gets stripped, or travels, or commits an offensive foul, or rimchecks himself......

Because he'll always be a rookie who's still recovering from microfracture surgery? Or because players never tend to improve from their rookie season? Or is it because 21 year olds are pretty much maxed out in skill and experience?

Which of these "novel" theories do you subscribe to?

or when they go to "hack-a-Shaq" because he (like Howard) is not all that good a FT shooter.

If they're doing this all game long, the opposing team will foul out in the first half and Portland will win by default. If you mean in the last few minutes of the game, I assume Roy will be the closer as per usual. Big men rarely are the main weapon of choice at the end of the game because they don't shoot free throws as well.

 

[rocketeer]

Based on what, pray tell? The kid wasn't even a dominant scorer in college. Expecting him to turn into Hakeem, Shaq, or Jabbar is pure wishful thinking. If he averages 15 PPG, I will be pleasantly surprised.

Why can't people just accept that Oden was drafted for his potential as a defensive stopper?

who said that oden needs to turn into a dominant scorer?

he averaged 9 a game in 20 minutes. thinking that it will be a surprise for him to reach or surpass 15 points per game just doesn't make sense. the only way that happens is if he never is able to solve the foul problem.

 

[rocketeer]

Orlando (Howard). Houston (Yao). Phoenix (Shaq). Pretty good teams.

Minnesota (Jefferson) and Toronto (Bosh) have leading scorers that play some center, as well... obviously with less impressive results for their teams.

Ed O.

don't forget the spurs with duncan.

 

[Boise Blazer]

Wow, there are a whole lot of people in here that need to be repped on this one especially BNM. What surprizes me is how many other people still dont get it. And its not even complicated. I supposed that even when factual numbers are right in front of them it makes it "complicated" for them but simply put Oden doesnt have to be our leading scorer, be our closer, score 25 a night or even 20 a night to be "dominate". Its all about setting a tone with him inside to start and then working our way back out. There will be nights and match-ups that Oden will totally be able to exploit his opponent and we can ride him the whole game in those situaions. There will other nights that teams will double down or get into foul trouble against him they will force Oden to kick it out and "make Roy and Aldridge beat them" which plays rights into our hands. Its so simple that its hard I guess.

Even the '09 verison of Oden + more minutes for '10 Oden = More success for the team and Oden
Oden '09 + minutes + better understanding of the game = ?????

I would take the first one and be happy and be thrilled with the second option.

 

[andalusian]

You know, there is a delightful irony here.

We had a very talented low-post scorer. We had a guy who was great at drawing fouls and cashing in at the line. The hatred fans poured on his head reached the point of being pathological. Fans raged at Nate to ditch the low-post offense in favor of a more perimeter oriented game.

Be careful what you wish for!

The reason people hated zBo was because the offense stagnated going through him and he played no defense - Oden seems like a much more willing passer and he is a much better defensive player already.