Whether we argue about the definition of "rookie" or not is not really the issue... Oden has not produced much yet, and it's been two years since the Blazers took him with the overall pick.
The questions seem to be:
-- How has he looked when he's been on the floor?
-- Do the things that keep him off the floor seem to be things that can be corrected over time?
-- How much can he improve his on-floor play?
I think that he's actually looked very good when he's been on the floor. I mean, some of his moves and plays have been ugly, but in terms of his production per minute and impact on the game I've not been very disappointed.
The things that have kept him off the floor are clearly (a) injuries, and (b) foul trouble. Is he injury-prone? I hope not, and I don't think so, but there is certainly evidence that he might be. Derek Anderson always seemed to have a bunch of unrelated, unlucky injuries, but it all added up to a level of injury vulnerability that few could match. His foul trouble is something that SHOULD be correctable. He should regain quickness as he recovers from his knee injury, in particular, and he will gain experience and learn how to avoid the silly fouls that he seems to pick up with shocking regularity.
As for his room for improvement... I still have a tremendous amount of confidence that he'll get a lot better. Where he is NOW, if he could merely avoid foul troubles, I think he's a borderline all-star player... but he can be a lot more. The game will slow down for him offensively and the travels and bobbles and other basketball mismanagement that we seem right at the basket should go away. He will spend time working on moves with his back to the basket and be effective beyond about 2 feet.
I'm not at all worried about anything other than injuries. I still think there's a chance he'll retire as a HoF-level center.
Ed O.
