Blazers: 4th Quarter Monsters

[B-Roy]

According to this:



Unfortunately we're getting killed every other quarter.

 

[Boob-No-More]

#lillardtime

BNM

 

[illmatic99]

lol I was just about to post this. Bigger version to read easier:

The craziest thing about those numbers is our 4th quarter defense. Ranked third in the league.

But another thing to consider that's affecting the other quarters is our two massive blowout losses all happened in the first 3 quarters.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

#lillardtime

BNM

Yeah, not a function of Lillard Time so much as Layman Time. These figures are skewed by the garbage time performances in the blowouts.

 

[jlprk]

We rank 17, 23, 27, and 3. The total of our 4 net ratings is -10.5. Of course, that needs to be weighted by high-scoring quarters vs. low-scoring.

 

[Pinwheel1]

Most games are won in the 4th. I might even go as far as saying most are won in the last 5 minutes of the 4th quarter. (crunch time) No stats to back that up, just my opinion. So those numbers bode well unless they were due to being so far behind we are always coming back against the other teams scrubs, which did happen against the Clips, +12 in the 4th. (Only +4 against the Warrior scrubs)

 

[Natebishop3]

So at what point does Minny have to make a trade? Kris Dunn has looked like a bust, or at least not the immediate contributor that people thought.

 

[jlprk]

How different is this list from a similar list of quarters simply showing points scored and opponent points scored? Which teams would move much up or down from the first list?

 

[jlprk]

So at what point does Minny have to make a trade? Kris Dunn has looked like a bust, or at least not the immediate contributor that people thought.

Back to the daily grind of gossip. Data analysis bores you, eh?

 

[Pinwheel1]

So at what point does Minny have to make a trade? Kris Dunn has looked like a bust, or at least not the immediate contributor that people thought.

No trade based on these stats. They are kicking ass in 3 of 4 quarters. It is very odd they are dead last in the 3rd quarter, yet 2nd in the first quarter. Maybe they have already started to tune out Thibs at half time. (Kidding)

 

[Natebishop3]

No trade based on these stats. They are kicking ass in 3 of 4 quarters. It is very odd they are dead last in the 3rd quarter, yet 2nd in the first quarter. Maybe they have already started to tune out Thibs at half time. (Kidding)

To me, they seem like a young team that could really use a veteran star. They have a ton of young talent that they could trade. It's interesting because if they had pulled off that Kris Dunn for Jimmy Butler deal, I think they'd be insanely good.

 

[blue9]

Most games are won in the 4th. I might even go as far as saying most are won in the last 5 minutes of the 4th quarter. (crunch time) No stats to back that up, just my opinion. So those numbers bode well unless they were due to being so far behind we are always coming back against the other teams scrubs, which did happen against the Clips, +12 in the 4th. (Only +4 against the Warrior scrubs)

It's interesting that the better teams rank higher earlier in the game, and drop off at the end. It tells me that it's important to set the tone early, play consistently, and have the game in control by the 4th. LAC, SAS, GSW, CLE, HOU - none of them drop to the bottom half until the 4th quarter, at which point they all do (with the exception of CLE). Meanwhile, we're in the bottom half (and sometimes near the very bottom) for the first three quarters. That's not a good sign. And again, this seems like a trademark of Terry Stotts (like you I have no stats, it's just my gut feeling). How many times do we come out flat and allow the opponent to build a big early lead? And it's that sort of lackadaisical play that requires us to play hero ball in the 4th quarter.

 

[Pinwheel1]

To me, they seem like a young team that could really use a veteran star. They have a ton of young talent that they could trade. It's interesting because if they had pulled off that Kris Dunn for Jimmy Butler deal, I think they'd be insanely good.

Yes that would have been a steal for Minny and very stupid for Chicago. Dunn could still turnout to be a huge star, but great college PG's who do not shoot well in college.......... can go either way. Very risky to draft them high or trade value for one...... unless you know for sure they will improve their shooting.

Dunn is Minnesota's 3rd (or maybe even 4th) high lottery pick PG who was a suspect shooter coming into the league. (in the last 7 years)

 

[e_blazer]

Fourth quarter monsters. Third quarter Trump targets.

 

[riverman]

I think it's great that we have a backcourt that can literally take over a game in the 4th pretty often..I think we'll improve consistancy with a little more time

 

[Pinwheel1]

It's interesting that the better teams rank higher earlier in the game, and drop off at the end. It tells me that it's important to set the tone early, play consistently, and have the game in control by the 4th.

I think for the most part we have started out well. I bet our 1st quarter numbers are skewed by the end of the fist quarter, and our 2nd quarters are skewed by the beginning of the 2nd quarter. In other words ........when the 2nd unit is in there. The combo of players that Terry has used has not yet worked in the first half. But for some reason it has been better to start the 4th.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Dunn is Minnesota's 3rd (or maybe even 4th) high lottery pick PG who was a suspect shooter coming into the league. (in the last 7 years)

Damning observation, and very astute.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Yeah, not a function of Lillard Time so much as Layman Time. These figures are skewed by the garbage time performances in the blowouts.

We've only been involved in two blowouts where there was any 4th quarter garbage time. When we lost to GSW by 23, (the game where Layman scored 17 points in 8 minutes) we out scored GSW by 4 in the 4th. In the second Clippers game, when we lost by 31, we outscored them by 12 in the 4th.

Our biggest 4th quarter margin was opening night, when we outscored UTA by +15 in the 4th to win by 9. That game was classic Lillard time. We were down 3, when he entered the game with 8:13 left in the 4th. He scored 13 points in the last 8 minutes and we came from behind to win by 9.

In the DAL game, we were up by 1 when Lillard entered the game in the 4th. He scored 15 points in the last 10 minutes as we pulled away to win by 10.

The MEM game was actually C.J. time as he scored 16 points in the 4th and we came from being down 1 at the start of the 4th to winning by 6.

In the second PHO game, Dame scored 22 points in the last 7:42 to preserve a 3 point win.

In the SAC game, we were actually -5 in the 2:20 that Layman played at the start of the 4th quarter. Dame came in for Layman with 9:40 left and POR down by 4. Dame scored 9 points in the last 5:45 of regulation to send the game into overtime.

Point being, Lillard has had several big 4th quarters. I believe he's second in the entire league in 4th quarter points, and we've needed his 4th quarter scoring to come from behind, or stave of opponents in the 4th quarters of several close games.

Sure, our 3rd string outscoring their 3rd string in the two blowout games does have a positive impact on our 4th quarter margins, but it's less significant than Lillard's 4th quarter scoring in the 9 games that weren't blowouts.

Average 4th quarter point differential for all 11 games = +3.2
Average 4th quarter point differential for 9 non-blowout games = +2.1

So, even if we toss out those two blowouts, we have a positive 4th quarter point differential, compared to negative point differentials in all the other quarters.

Of course, if you throw out the two blowout losses, our average 1st quarter margin improves from -0.82 to +1.82 and our average 3rd quarter margin improves from -3.36 to -0.18. So, yeah the two blowouts are also having a significant impact on our point differentials in the other quarters as well.

BNM