Blazers after Ariza.

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DaRizzle said:
Thats a compelling argument you gave there if your stats are correct :cheers:...before I fully respond could you link me to where you got those stats for Dr. Buss's profits. Its pointless to argue this if those numbers are bunk.

Also, what is the the salaries for Odom and Ariza you are assuming into your argument?
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The profits are from Forbes.com and their annual valuation of NBA franchises. I'm not sure how many years are actually archived on the site. I have the numbers (having collected them over the years) on a spreadsheet at home.

And my assumption is that Odom and Ariza will make a combined $16 million in 2009-10 if they are both re-signed..
 
Storyteller2 said:
The profits are from Forbes.com and their annual valuation of NBA franchises. I'm not sure how many years are actually archived on the site. I have the numbers (having collected them over the years) on a spreadsheet at home.

And my assumption is that Odom and Ariza will make a combined $16 million in 2009-10 if they are both re-signed..
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Good points all over........ as Ariza will probably make 6-7 million and Odom 8-10 million per year.
 
Storyteller2 said:
The profits are from Forbes.com and their annual valuation of NBA franchises. I'm not sure how many years are actually archived on the site. I have the numbers (having collected them over the years) on a spreadsheet at home.

And my assumption is that Odom and Ariza will make a combined $16 million in 2009-10 if they are both re-signed..
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The Lakers missed the playoffs for the first time since 1994 last season. The team had been generating as much as $20 million annually from it's frequent deep runs in the playoffs. Don't cry for owner Jerry Buss as the team remains one of the NBA's most profitable, despite being merely a tenant in their building, albeit an important one.
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^that is exactly what is said

That hardly is implying that Jerry Buss has that 20mill mark in his head. In fact it sorta implies the opposite of that. Money is nice and all but at this point IMO Dr. Buss just wants to make this the most prolific team he can make it. His family is set for life regardless if they sign both or dont.

I was watching a interview with Dr. Buss a few months ago. He told the story of him getting very overpriced offers for the Lakers. He said he thought about it and asked himself what he would do with so much money...his answer to himself..."Buy the Lakers".
 
DaRizzle said:
^that is exactly what is said

That hardly is implying that Jerry Buss has that 20mill mark in his head. In fact it sorta implies the opposite of that. Money is nice and all but at this point IMO Dr. Buss just wants to make this the most prolific team he can make it. His family is set for life regardless if they sign both or dont.

I was watching a interview with Dr. Buss a few months ago. He told the story of him getting very overpriced offers for the Lakers. He said he thought about it and asked himself what he would do with so much money...his answer to himself..."Buy the Lakers".
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The $20 million figure doesn't come from that quote - your posting it is the first I've seen of that quote. The $20 million figure comes from my looking at how much profit the Lakers have actually made over the last decade, and seeing that the lowest figure was $23 million. I gave Dr. Buss the benefit of the doubt and said he'd go as low as $20 million.

I lived in Southern California for 17 years. I've seen the interviews with Dr. Buss. I've read the columns in the LA Times, the OC Register, the Daily News and even the Herald-Examiner. I've yet to read one that didn't say that Dr. Buss relies on the yearly income he receives from the Lakers to fund his lifestyle. If things have changed in the past 4 years (since I moved out of California), then I'm mistaken.

This wouldn't be the first time that he's let players leave for financial reasons (Fisher, Turiaf, etc.)
 
Storyteller2 said:
This wouldn't be the first time that he's let players leave for financial reasons (Fisher, Turiaf, etc.)
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He also overruled Jerry West's plan (a plan also endorsed by Phil Jackson) to trade for Scottie Pippen from Houston due to the amount of money Pippen was owed.
 
Storyteller2 said:
The $20 million figure doesn't come from that quote - your posting it is the first I've seen of that quote. The $20 million figure comes from my looking at how much profit the Lakers have actually made over the last decade, and seeing that the lowest figure was $23 million. I gave Dr. Buss the benefit of the doubt and said he'd go as low as $20 million.
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Well who is right? You or Forbes magazine?:devilwink: Forbes says up to you say at least...So I welcome you showing me how you are right and got your numbers but I gotta go with Forbes for now...

Storyteller2 said:
I lived in Southern California for 17 years. I've seen the interviews with Dr. Buss. I've read the columns in the LA Times, the OC Register, the Daily News and even the Herald-Examiner. I've yet to read one that didn't say that Dr. Buss relies on the yearly income he receives from the Lakers to fund his lifestyle. If things have changed in the past 4 years (since I moved out of California), then I'm mistaken.
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Im gonna go out on a limb and say the Buss family is more than secure.

In January 2008, Buss donated $7.5 million to USC's Department of Chemistry to fund two endowed chairs and an endowed scholarship fund for chemistry graduate students; the two chairs were to be named after his mentors at USC, professors Sidney Benson and David Dows. Buss is an inaugural member of the USC College Board of Councilors.
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerry_Buss

Doesnt sound like somebody worrying about money....


Storyteller2 said:
This wouldn't be the first time that he's let players leave for financial reasons (Fisher, Turiaf, etc.)
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You dont really believe those two are in close to the same situation as Odom and Ariza do you?!? Fisher was overpaid by GS (good for him) and there was no realistic chance of 'ships in the next few years with or without him. Turiaf was vastly overpaid(good for him) by GS and the Lakers didnt resign him cause they had more important people to give money to. If Ronny was a huge factor of the Lakers getting to the finals then the Lakers would have kept him.

Here we are talking about an already proven championship team with Ariza and Odom being very big factors.
 
Storyteller2 said:
I had the numbers in my other post, but I'll re-post them here for you.

If you look at the historical record, over the last decade, Jerry Buss has been willing to pay as long as he makes at least $20 million in profit. The Lakers have never been allowed to drop below that figure. It makes sense, since the Lakers are Dr. Buss' primary source of yearly income. He wants (needs?) them to make a substantial profit each year for cash flow purposes.

OK, in 2007-08, the Lakers made a profit of $47.9 million while paying out $78 million for player salaries ($72.9 million to players and $5.1 million in tax). That's playing 11 home playoff games.

In 2008-09, the Lakers will pay out about $85.3 million for player salaries ($78.2 million to players and $7.1 million in tax). The Lakers had one more playoff game than last year. If you want to believe that one playoff game will add an extra $50 million in revenue.....the estimates I've seen are that Buss will pull about $37 or $38 million in profit for the year.

So onto 2009-10. If the Lakers re-sign both Ariza and Odom, they'll pay out about $117 million for player salaries ($93.5 million to players and $23.5 million in tax). The Lakers have already announced no increase in ticket prices for next season. League-wide revenue is expected to be down. But even if a miracle happens and the Lakers have the exact same revenue amount in 2009-10 that they did in 2008-09, Buss' profit for the year will be single digits, hovering at around $5-6 million. That goes against every previous indication of what Buss is and is not willing to spend.

So my question is, given this historical trend of evidence, why are we now supposed to believe that Buss will take an 86% drop in income for the year? If it's just your opinion that he will, that's one thing. But there's no way I personally will believe it until I see it.
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In no universe will payroll need to be $117M for Buss to resign both Ariza and Odom.

If the luxury tax is at $71M, the math is the following:

Kobe: 23.0M
Gasol: 16.5M
Bynum: 12.5M
Ammo: $5.3M
Fish: 5.0M
Sasha: 5.0M
Luke: 4.8M
Farmar: $2M
Brown: 0.85M
Mbenga: 0.85M
Powell: 0.85M
Yue: 0.75M

This assumes Brown is resigned to a minimum deal (very likely), and add in another $1M for a 1st rounder and that's $78.4M total before luxury taxes.

Then, if you resign Odom and Ariza to $8M/yr and $5M/yr deals respectively, that's $91.4M before luxury taxes. After luxury taxes, that's ~ $112M. And this assumes the Lakers don't dump a contract in trade, like Vujacic or Morrison, which could quite easily happen like they did with Radmanovic earlier in the year, bringing down total salary well below $110M.

That would fall under your minimum $20M assumption, which is based on questionable numbers at the very least, and something that could potentially be disastrously different if one of those players isn't resigned because it could mean significantly fewer postseason games at Staples; little point in chancing potentially $10M-$20M in postseason ticket sales over less than $5M in additional contract dollars Buss *might* not want to spend on Ariza/Odom.
 
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DaRizzle said:
Well who is right? You or Forbes magazine?:devilwink: Forbes says up to you say at least
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Well, since my statement and Forbes' statement are not diametrically opposed, I'd say we're both right.

The quote from Forbes that you brought up said that the Lakers get up to $20 million extra in revenue from being in the playoffs.

My point is that Buss historically will not allow his franchise to operate at less than $20 million profit annually.


And of course, I know that Ariza and Odom are different than Fisher and Turiaf. But that doesn't change my contention. Look, if Buss spends like crazy this summer to keep Odom and Ariza, I'll be surprised. It won't mean the end of the world to me and it won't mean that I'm an idiot. It'll just mean that I'm very surprised because Buss will have operated against his norm. He has every right to do so. Right now, I just don't think he will.
 
Also note that Buss would prefer $100M in total salaries, so a salary dump is almost a given.
 
EHL said:
Then, if you resign Odom and Ariza to $8M/yr and $5M/yr deals respectively, that's $91.4M before luxury taxes.
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We're step for step in line until this point, and that's what makes the difference between your $112 million and my $117 million. I think it'll take $16 million to sign both, you say $13 million. $3 million salary plus $3 million tax.

As for my contention about $20 million being based on questionable numbers, that's not quite true. Is it my opinion? Absolutely. I don't think Jerry Buss will allow the Lakers to operate at less than $20 million annual profit. You don't have to agree with that. But the historical data about annual profit is not questionable. Jerry Buss makes a lot of money annually as owner of the Lakers. There's nothing 'questionable' about that statement. And if he can make it - more power to him!

I just think that he'll want to keep making $20-40 million annually. I don't think he'll sign both Ariza and Odom this summer for that reason.
 
Storyteller2 said:
We're step for step in line until this point, and that's what makes the difference between your $112 million and my $117 million. I think it'll take $16 million to sign both, you say $13 million. $3 million salary plus $3 million tax.

As for my contention about $20 million being based on questionable numbers, that's not quite true. Is it my opinion? Absolutely. I don't think Jerry Buss will allow the Lakers to operate at less than $20 million annual profit. You don't have to agree with that. But the historical data about annual profit is not questionable. Jerry Buss makes a lot of money annually as owner of the Lakers. There's nothing 'questionable' about that statement. And if he can make it - more power to him!

I just think that he'll want to keep making $20-40 million annually. I don't think he'll sign both Ariza and Odom this summer for that reason.
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meh...even if all you say is true past doesnt always dictate future...This is Dr. Buss's last chance to get 'ships while he is the man in charge. Buss has ALWAYS paid the players he thought it took to win 'ships. Signing both is well within reason and I obviously believe it will eventually happen.

You made some good points...im just gonna have to disagree with the endresult
 
Seem to know your shit...hope you stick around these parts. You a Blazers fan or just interested in the thread
 
DaRizzle said:
Seem to know your shit...hope you stick around these parts. You a Blazers fan or just interested in the thread
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He's a voice from the Golden Age of this Blazers community... come back to save us from the darkness.

:)

Ed O.
 
DaRizzle said:
Seem to know your shit...hope you stick around these parts. You a Blazers fan or just interested in the thread
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I like to think I know a few things about salaries and the CBA.....

I am indeed a fan of the Blazers and have been since 1982. I've posted with a lot of these Blazers fans through the years as they've migrated from board to board. I don't post on this board as much as I do on BlazersEdge and that's just a preferential thing (I don't care for the cursing and the edginess). To each their own.
 
DaRizzle said:
oh well geez...Its gonna be awesome when Im right over a guy that has a site dedicated to this kind of stuff :devilwink:
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Next try to find a site for a referee in the NBA and tell them the clock should not stop when a foul is called! :drumroll:
 
DaRizzle said:
I was stoned okay!
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You were stoned pretty thoroughly by the fans here, definitely. And I imagine that they will continue to stone you for it, because it's fun. :ghoti:
 
Storyteller2 said:
We're step for step in line until this point, and that's what makes the difference between your $112 million and my $117 million. I think it'll take $16 million to sign both, you say $13 million. $3 million salary plus $3 million tax.

As for my contention about $20 million being based on questionable numbers, that's not quite true. Is it my opinion? Absolutely. I don't think Jerry Buss will allow the Lakers to operate at less than $20 million annual profit. You don't have to agree with that. But the historical data about annual profit is not questionable. Jerry Buss makes a lot of money annually as owner of the Lakers. There's nothing 'questionable' about that statement. And if he can make it - more power to him!

I just think that he'll want to keep making $20-40 million annually. I don't think he'll sign both Ariza and Odom this summer for that reason.
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He can and has signed players to keep title teams intact. Odom isn't likely to get $10M, that just isn't happening after years of him being overpaid for his worth, especially when he got his trade kicker dollars from the Heat trade. Odom is going to get under $10M/yr ($8M/yr in the most likely scenario), meaning there's no way they're spending $8M on Ariza, that's not his market value even in an overpriced market, and certainly not in this economic climate. The wildcard is some team offering him a $10M/yr deal stretching over 5 years. Very very questionable the Lakers match that, but matching may not be necessary as LO has continually maintained he'll take less to stay here (both due to loyalty but probably more the fact that he got paid so much for so little for years as a Laker). Knowing that, a team would really have to overpay Odom, like $12M/yr over 5. Just don't see any team thinking that's sane.

Additionally, there is no reason to believe Buss' profit numbers are written in stone as you seem to be implying considering the numbers you're pulling vary widely and aren't well sourced; Buss is a private citizen, there's no way you can know his precise profit numbers with any certainty and Forbes routinely makes that clear in all their rankings. They don't know all about Buffet's holdings, for example, because some of that information is illegal to access. They can guesstimate to within 90% certainty maybe, but in the NBA, that last 10% matters and that is all it takes to sign Ariza and LO together.

Storyteller2 said:
A given that they'll try or a given that they'll succeed?
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They'll certainly try, and they have a track record of succeeding.
 
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