Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th seed

[KingSpeed]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/nba/news/20130731/nba-western-conference-offseason-roundtable/

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...ence-2013-14-playoff-field-predictions/page/3

 

[Mediocre Man]

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

Yay to 4 more games and the loss of an opportunity to land a franchise changing player in this loaded draft

 

[HailBlazers]

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

Yay to 4 more games and the loss of an opportunity to land a franchise changing player in this loaded draft

No player we'd realistically land would equal the re-signing of LMA

 

[Mediocre Man]

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

No player we'd realistically land would equal the re-signing of LMA

So trading LA (hypothetically) and finishing with a poor enough record to be in the discussion for a top 5 pick and landing a Batman isn't worth a 28 year old Robin?

 

[Boob-No-More]

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

Yay to 4 more games and the loss of an opportunity to land a franchise changing player in this loaded draft

Yay to not SUCKING! Yay to winning more games than we lose! Yay to looking forward to watching basketball and not ping pong balls in May!

BNM

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

That's part of the reason I want an Aldridge trade to be for future considerations, so that we don't just sneak into the playoffs.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

So trading LA (hypothetically) and finishing with a poor enough record to be in the discussion for a top 5 pick and landing a Batman isn't worth a 28 year old Robin?

Yeah we could do all that and still not get a Batman. Aldridge was picked second and was the best player in that draft - and he's a Robin. Look at the rest of the top 5 from that draft: Bargnani, Adam Morrison, Tyrus Thomas and Shelden Williams. Do you see any Batman there? I don't even see any other Robins. Hell, none of those guys are even Alfreds.

Yeah, I know next year is supposed to be a good draft class (this year's was supposed to be, too, but Noel and Shabazz didn't turn out as great as originally projected). The lottery and draft are both crap shoots. Getting a top 5 pick only guarantees one thing, you were one of the shittiest teams in the league. No thanks.

BNM

 

[GriLtCheeZ]

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

That's part of the reason I want an Aldridge trade to be for future considerations, so that we don't just sneak into the playoffs.

What kind of "future considerations" are you talking about? An All Star for future considerations seems kind of underwhelming to me.

 

[KingSpeed]

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

The thing about landing a top 3 pick superstar in the lottery though is, with the exception of Darko, he leaves your team before winning a championship. A top 3 pick hasn't led the team who drafted him to a title since Tim Duncan. LeBron was the big prize for Cleveland but LeBron now has two titles and Cleveland has none. PLUS, it generally takes awhile for the big prize to take your crappy team to the playoffs. LeBron and Durant didn't make the playoffs their first two seasons.

 

[THE HCP]

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

Yeah for mediocrity!

 

[e_blazer]

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

Yeah we could do all that and still not get a Batman. Aldridge was picked second and was the best player in that draft - and he's a Robin. Look at the rest of the top 5 from that draft: Bargnani, Adam Morrison, Tyrus Thomas and Shelden Williams. Do you see any Batman there? I don't even see any other Robins. Hell, none of those guys are even Alfreds.

Yeah, I know next year is supposed to be a good draft class (this year's was supposed to be, too, but Noel and Shabazz didn't turn out as great as originally projected). The lottery and draft are both crap shoots. Getting a top 5 pick only guarantees one thing, you were one of the shittiest teams in the league. No thanks.

BNM

Those are my sentiments, exactly. I'd rep you, but it says I have to spread it around a bit.

I'd also add that we just picked up a top 5 pick from last year's "loaded" draft (Robinson) for next to nothing. There are other ways to get to the promised land than perpetually wallowing in lottery pick land.

 

[Masbee]

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

Yeah we could do all that and still not get a Batman. Aldridge was picked second and was the best player in that draft - and he's a Robin. Look at the rest of the top 5 from that draft: Bargnani, Adam Morrison, Tyrus Thomas and Shelden Williams. Do you see any Batman there? I don't even see any other Robins. Hell, none of those guys are even Alfreds.

Yeah, I know next year is supposed to be a good draft class (this year's was supposed to be, too, but Noel and Shabazz didn't turn out as great as originally projected). The lottery and draft are both crap shoots. Getting a top 5 pick only guarantees one thing, you were one of the shittiest teams in the league. No thanks.

BNM

Way to compare a very weak draft to a very loaded draft.

Yeah, they are exactly the same thing.

 

[The_Lillard_King]

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

So according to this writer, no Dallas or Denver in the playoffs.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

The thing about landing a top 3 pick superstar in the lottery though is, with the exception of Darko, he leaves your team before winning a championship. A top 3 pick hasn't led the team who drafted him to a title since Tim Duncan. LeBron was the big prize for Cleveland but LeBron now has two titles and Cleveland has none. PLUS, it generally takes awhile for the big prize to take your crappy team to the playoffs. LeBron and Durant didn't make the playoffs their first two seasons.

Well said, sir.

 

[KingSpeed]

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

So according to this writer, no Dallas or Denver in the playoffs.

Well Dallas didn't make it last year and Denver lost key pieces.

Well said, sir.

Thank you

 

[Boob-No-More]

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

Way to compare a very weak draft to a very loaded draft.

Yeah, they are exactly the same thing.

Doesn't matter. Dwyane Wade, drafted in 2003 is the last top 5 pick to win a ring with the team that drafted him. I'd have to double check, but I think Duncan in 1997 was the last before him. And LeBron is the only No. 1 pick since Duncan to win a ring anywhere.

Gee, if only winning the lottery guaranteed your team a future championship. Unfortunately, history says otherwise. Even if you luck out and win the lottery in one of the best drafts ever, if you're at small market team, any future Hall of Famer you are lucky enough to draft will likey force a trade before you come close to sniffing a ring. But hey, in the meantime you get to suck and suffer through multiple 20 win seasons.

I repeat, no thanks!

BNM

 

[ABM]

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

Yay to 4 more games and the loss of an opportunity to land a franchise changing player in this loaded draft

Stotts tanks, gets fired, the Blazers hire a top-tier coach, net the #1 pick in the 2014 draft.

There ya have it.....your way....MM.

 

[KingSpeed]

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

Doesn't matter. Dwyane Wade, drafted in 2003 is the last top 5 pick to win a ring with the team that drafted him. I'd have to double check, but I think Duncan in 1997 was the last before him. And LeBron is the only No. 1 pick since Duncan to win a ring anywhere.

Gee, if only winning the lottery guaranteed your team a future championship. Unfortunately, history says otherwise. Even if you luck out and win the lottery in one of the best drafts ever, if you're at small market team, any future Hall of Famer you are lucky enough to draft will likey force a trade before you come close to sniffing a ring. But hey, in the meantime you get to suck and suffer through multiple 20 win seasons.

I repeat, no thanks!

BNM

Exactly.

 

[JfizzleBlazer]

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

Look at Indy mm. You don't have to suck and get high lotto picks to be a top five team in the league.

You're more likely to be a charlotte or Sacramento if you continually suck on purpose than a okc

 

[KingSpeed]

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

Look at Indy mm. You don't have to suck and get high lotto picks to be a top five team in the league.

You're more likely to be a charlotte or Sacramento if you continually suck on purpose than a okc

And OKC has won as many titles as we have (kinda).

 

[tlongII]

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

Doesn't matter. Dwyane Wade, drafted in 2003 is the last top 5 pick to win a ring with the team that drafted him. I'd have to double check, but I think Duncan in 1997 was the last before him. And LeBron is the only No. 1 pick since Duncan to win a ring anywhere.

Gee, if only winning the lottery guaranteed your team a future championship. Unfortunately, history says otherwise. Even if you luck out and win the lottery in one of the best drafts ever, if you're at small market team, any future Hall of Famer you are lucky enough to draft will likey force a trade before you come close to sniffing a ring. But hey, in the meantime you get to suck and suffer through multiple 20 win seasons.

I repeat, no thanks!

BNM

Repped.

 

[Draco]

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

Doesn't matter. Dwyane Wade, drafted in 2003 is the last top 5 pick to win a ring with the team that drafted him. I'd have to double check, but I think Duncan in 1997 was the last before him. And LeBron is the only No. 1 pick since Duncan to win a ring anywhere.

Gee, if only winning the lottery guaranteed your team a future championship. Unfortunately, history says otherwise. Even if you luck out and win the lottery in one of the best drafts ever, if you're at small market team, any future Hall of Famer you are lucky enough to draft will likey force a trade before you come close to sniffing a ring. But hey, in the meantime you get to suck and suffer through multiple 20 win seasons.

I repeat, no thanks!

BNM

Thats some good research and great stats.

 

[PapaG]

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

...but trading LMA for lesser players and a draft pick, while still having Lillard/Batum/Wes, is going to insure the Blazers have one of the worst records in the NBA?

If you don't want to see playoffs for multiple seasons, let alone a 7th seed, then MM's approach is the way to go.

 

[PapaG]

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

Thats some good research and great stats.

KingSpeed basically posted the same thing prior in this thread.

 

[Draco]

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

If BNM post is correct, that means since 1998-2012, which is the last 15 years of draft picks, there has been ONE top 5 pick that won a title with the team that drafted him. One out of the last 75. That is barely over a 1% probability. That is stunning, possibly the best stats I've ever seen to confirm my feelings that tanking is in general a poor strategy. I thought tanking was better than that, maybe even I had been overvaluing its effectiveness.

 

[Mediocre Man]

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

And OKC has won as many titles as we have (kinda).

Yes, we are just as good as they are

 

[Mediocre Man]

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

Look at Indy mm. You don't have to suck and get high lotto picks to be a top five team in the league.

You're more likely to be a charlotte or Sacramento if you continually suck on purpose than a okc

I look at small market teams and see more times than not, if they are a serious contender it's because of the draft. Drafting higher increases your chance of getting a better player. whether that happens or not is a different story. Our own beloved frailblazers are a great example. Oden, Aldridge, Roy was a great core, and if healthy would probably be the second best team in the league...at worst.

 

[oldmangrouch]

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

The Blazers can make the play-offs if everything goes right. When was the last time that happened?

Good teams don't have to rely on good luck and/or opponents' bad luck.

 

[e_blazer]

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

The Blazers can make the play-offs if everything goes right. When was the last time that happened?

Good teams don't have to rely on good luck and/or opponents' bad luck.

They do if they play in the NBA Western Conference where there are about 12 teams that are good enough to get into the playoffs.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Re: Blazers: Best offseason of all Westen Conference lottery teams, should be 7th see

KingSpeed basically posted the same thing prior in this thread.

Actually, I did the research and posted the results in another thread two months ago on May 31.

Even though I knew about Wade, he was the first one that came into my mind, I inadvertently neglected to include him in the tabulated results. Here are those results corrected to include Wade:

How many top 5 picks taken since 1997 (the year Duncan was drafted) have won championships (or better still, how many have been the best player on a championship team)?

Here's the top 5 draft picks over the last 15 years:

1st Pick:
2012 Anthony Davis
2011 Kyrie Irving
2010 John Wall
2009 Blake Griffin
2008 Derrick Rose
2007 Greg Oden
2006 Andrea Bargnani
2005 Andrew Bogut
2004 Dwight Howard
2003 Lebron James
2002 Yao Ming
2001 Kwame Brown
2000 Kenyon Martin
1999 Elton Brand
1998 Michael Olowokandi

2nd Pick:
2012 Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
2011 Derrick Williams
2010 Evan Turner
2009 Hasheem Thabeet
2008 Michael Beasley
2007 Kevin Durant
2006 LaMarcus Aldridge
2005 Marvin Williams
2004 Emeka Okafor
2003 Darko Milicic
2002 Jay Williams
2001 Tyson Chandler
2000 Stromile Swift
1999 Steve Francis
1998 Mike Bibby

3rd Pick:
2012 Bradley Beal
2011 Enes Kanter
2010 Derrick Favors
2009 James Harden
2008 O.J. Mayo
2007 Al Horford
2006 Adam Morrison
2005 Deron Williams
2004 Ben Gordon
2003 Carmelo Anthony
2002 Mike Dunleavy
2001 Pau Gasol
2000 Darius Miles
1999 Baron Davis
1998 Raef LaFrentz

4th Pick:
2012 Dion Waiters
2011 Tristan Thompson
2010 Wesley Johnson
2009 Tyreke Evans
2008 Russell Westbrook
2007 Mike Conley
2006 Tyrus Thomas
2005 Chris Paul
2004 Shaun Livingston
2003 Chris Bosh
2002 Drew Gooden
2001 Eddy Curry
2000 Marcus Fizer
1999 Lamar Odom
1998 Antawn Jamison

5th Pick:
2012 Thomas Robinson
2011 Jonas Valanciunas
2010 DeMarcus Cousins
2009 Ricky Rubio
2008 Kevin Love
2007 Jeff Green
2006 Shelden Williams
2005 Raymond Felton
2004 Devin Harris
2003 Dwyane Wade
2002 Nickoloz Tskitishvili
2001 Jason Richardson
2000 Mike Miller
1999 Jonathan Bender
1998 Vince Carter

That's really quite shocking. In the last 15 drafts, one No. 1 pick, one No. 2 pick, two No. 3 picks, two No. 4 picks and two No. 5 picks have won an NBA championship, and of those, only LeBron and Wade (the first time) were the best players on their championship teams. In fact, Wade is the only player drafted top 5 in the last 15 years has won a championship for the team that drafted him. And, of the 8 total top five picks that have won rings, 4 of them (LeBron, Wade, Bosh and Mike Miller) had to combine forces to get their rings. Still think years of suckage and high lottery picks is the best way to win an NBA title?

P.S. What's really scary is Adam Morrison is the last top 5 pick to win a championship - as a seldom used scrub for a team that didn't draft him.

BTW, even if you go back 20 or 25 years, it only gets marginally better with guys like Shaq (not with the team that drafted him) and David Robinson that won rings. You really need to go back to the late 70s and early 80s before you see a significant number of top 5 draft picks (Hakeem, Jordan, Magic, Worthy, etc.) that won rings with the teams that drafted them. Of course, player movement as MUCH less common back then. The top players tended to play all, or at least most, of their careers with the team that drafted them.

Based on this historical data, I think the notion that the best way a small market team can win a ring is to deliberately suck and hope to build through high lottery picks is incorrect. The data just does not support that hypotheses.

BNM